brockpapersizer

Willians Astudillo 2019 Outlook

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I was looking at some Catcher numbers from this past year (I know.. I know.. I can't help myself..) Anyways in 69 Plate Appearances La Tortuga did not strike out vs RHP last year. He's something else. 

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It will be interesting to see what the Twins do at the catcher spot. Castro is coming back after being hurt in 2018. Still have Garver. Astudillo played really well last in a short sample size. Astudillo played some 3B and DH too. 

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Steamer has him for .291 13 HR/ 7 SB and 112 R+RBI in 481 ABs.  Those numbers in fangraphs SPG (standings points gained) formula results in the number 147 player overall and #2 catcher (!) after Sanchez (might have missed someone).  Not sure I buy the SB total or the AB projection, but steamer projects Castro for 375 ABs so must be assuming a super utility role for Astudillo. A lot of what ifs in terms of ABs and production but worth following.  

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Baseball Prospectus had his pitch framing above average at AA, AAA and the MLB. And maybe I'm crazy but the guy didn't look bad in the infield either. Doesn't it make sense to use him as a backup C and backup INF, at the very least? You gain a roster spot. 

 

Twins new FO is supposed to be smart. I can't see them just cutting this dude. He had a .362 xwoba last year. He deserves consideration. 

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As senior catcher aficionado here at rotoworld forums,  I should tell you the bar for an average catcher is something like low mid teens home runs with like a 250ish average. If you have a guy you can bank on for doing more than that, you have quite a useful catcher.  Hard to gamble on the steals,  but 7 from your catcher spot is very nice.  I think he could hit those teen home runs that most of the average catchers do, but with a good 280-290 average.  That would be very very useful.

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48 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

Steamer has him for .291 13 HR/ 7 SB and 112 R+RBI in 481 ABs.  Those numbers in fangraphs SPG (standings points gained) formula results in the number 147 player overall and #2 catcher (!) after Sanchez (might have missed someone).  Not sure I buy the SB total or the AB projection, but steamer projects Castro for 375 ABs so must be assuming a super utility role for Astudillo. A lot of what ifs in terms of ABs and production but worth following.  

Realmuto, Grandal, Perez, and Ramos come to mind as being better options at least to me.

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Guys another thing to consider is Mauer retiring and the Twins releasing Morrison, so barring them signing someone it may also open some ABs elsewhere for A-stud.

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On 11/20/2018 at 12:36 PM, brockpapersizer said:

As senior catcher aficionado here at rotoworld forums,  I should tell you the bar for an average catcher is something like low mid teens home runs with like a 250ish average. If you have a guy you can bank on for doing more than that, you have quite a useful catcher.  Hard to gamble on the steals,  but 7 from your catcher spot is very nice.  I think he could hit those teen home runs that most of the average catchers do, but with a good 280-290 average.  That would be very very useful.

 

Yeah, he's very much one of my catcher targets in my 2-catcher league. If he can find 400+ ABs, he's going to be a very useful player. And in Yahoo leagues, he'll have 3B eligibility to start 2019. 

Edited by Flyman75
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On ‎2018‎-‎11‎-‎23 at 1:25 PM, BigPapi44 said:

Guys another thing to consider is Mauer retiring and the Twins releasing Morrison, so barring them signing someone it may also open some ABs elsewhere for A-stud.

 

Well, there goes that as the Twins inked CJ Cron yesterday.

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On ‎2018‎-‎11‎-‎27 at 9:31 AM, brockpapersizer said:

I mean he played 0 games at 1b last year

 

haha, I meant in the DH spot. 

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On 11/20/2018 at 10:36 AM, brockpapersizer said:

As senior catcher aficionado here at rotoworld forums,  I should tell you the bar for an average catcher is something like low mid teens home runs with like a 250ish average. If you have a guy you can bank on for doing more than that, you have quite a useful catcher.  Hard to gamble on the steals,  but 7 from your catcher spot is very nice.  I think he could hit those teen home runs that most of the average catchers do, but with a good 280-290 average.  That would be very very useful.

Think about this baseline, which too me is a low bar:

 

.250 avg 15HR 50RBI and 50Runs scored. 

 2 guys did that last year: Realmuto and Yadi

 

If youre in a 2-C league and there is some gambling to be had on an upside guy, you are not losing out as the vast majority of guys struggle to reach even a minimum baseline set of across the board numbers.  

 

Whats interesting is that two of the guys close to that baseline ended up both in DC (Gomes and Zuke) and might end up cancelling each other out a bit.  

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On 11/21/2018 at 9:05 AM, FouLLine said:

He struck out last night :-(

At the bar or during a game?

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On 12/20/2018 at 2:13 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

At the bar or during a game?

 

If at game, still on draft list.

 

If at bar, remove from list.

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Play in a league with custom eligibility rules. Does it appear he'll start 2019 playing 3B with Castro the primary C? Or yet TBD...

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30 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Play in a league with custom eligibility rules. Does it appear he'll start 2019 playing 3B with Castro the primary C? Or yet TBD...

I would think that we won't really know until we see how spring training shapes out. Regardless of how well that Astudillo has been playing, I can't imagine Minnesota committing to moving on from Sano yet. It may be that Astudillo doesn't start the season with regular ABs, but hopefully the talent forces him into the starting lineup somewhere.

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Astudillo got AB at C, 2b, 3b, and OF last year. They will get him in the lineup when they can. He's a better daily league asset than weekly I'd imagine, but when youre really getting through the catchers lists, plenty of starting catchers dont play multiple times in a week. 

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Read the FG article.  Nice to see that he hit for some power given the league is not overly homer friendly.  Of course the pitching down there is not great, still good to see the hard contact.  Could be a top 5 fantasy catcher if he can get 400+ ABs and hit in the top 5 of the Twins lineup.  Seems unlikely to hit in top 5, but his ability to make contact and not strike out would seem to support his inclusion there.

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Like his story and dude can hit some, but I can't see how he carves out much value in fantasy (unless Castro has some sort of set-back)?

I suppose maybe in 16+ team leagues with daily line-ups...

Real-life, for sure a nice guy to have on your roster and fun guy to watch play.

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Just now, ST. STEVEN said:

Like his story and dude can hit some, but I can't see how he carves out much value in fantasy (unless Castro has some sort of set-back)?

I suppose maybe in 16+ team leagues with daily line-ups...

Real-life, for sure a nice guy to have on your roster and fun guy to watch play.

The value comes if he has C eligibility in 2019 with regular at-bats. If he is an every day infielder due to injuries, or if he is used in a slightly more utility role to play 4 times a week(typical for catchers), then he will be a top 10 fantasy catcher that can be drafted at a good value. In 5x5, he has emerged to have a decent amount of pop (for a catcher) with one of the best averages at the position. In points leagues, most players strikeout more than they walk, meaning the combination of the two stats is usually a net negative value for non-Votto/Santana players. Having virtually no walks or strikeouts makes him similar to a player with equal walks to strikeouts in that regard, which is an inherent positive for hitter value.

 

The upside isn't anywhere there to be a top standout at the position, but given what his draft value will be, he could be a great value.

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Also, further to the above according to BP he also finished 30th out of 117 in pitch framing (2 behind Castro) and was decent throwing out runners.  Not sure if he was catching in the winter league, but would be interesting to see hear any progress in that regard.  Likely have to see how things look in ST before having a better sense of playing time.  I'm in agreement with @brockpapersizer that he's likely to have more value in daily versus weekly leagues.  Also in agreement with @jbj that he has top 10, if not higher upside, if things break right for him.

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Posted (edited)

Steamer's projections have 1 catcher with a .440 + slug and a 270+ average and his name is Astudillo, and that average they project is 290. Only thing missing is the PAs.  He's a C1 if he gets regular playing time, otherwise he's a C1 on those days he plays.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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