lobsterback

2019 "Deep" Sleepers

Recommended Posts

Stat line scouting find of the year - Casey Golden, LF, COL, 10th rd pick in 2017. 34 HR, 20 SB in A ball, albeit with a 37% K rate. BP video shows an absolute trunk of a lower half, and the stolen bases hint at good athleticism. Hopefully it is enough to stay in the outfield as his value will tank as a R/R first baseman. With zero press and no Rockies 2019 top prospect lists published yet, Golden can be had for absolutely nothing in all dynasty leagues. I just acquired him as over the 1000th prospect owned in a deep 24 team dynasty. Prospects1500 has him off the board around 270th if I remember correctly, with a small write up in their prospect mock draft series. Wait for a real scouting report on Golden in shallower leagues, but deep dynasty players should consider him now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, lobsterback said:

Stat line scouting find of the year - Casey Golden, LF, COL, 10th rd pick in 2017. 34 HR, 20 SB in A ball, albeit with a 37% K rate. BP video shows an absolute trunk of a lower half, and the stolen bases hint at good athleticism. Hopefully it is enough to stay in the outfield as his value will tank as a R/R first baseman. With zero press and no Rockies 2019 top prospect lists published yet, Golden can be had for absolutely nothing in all dynasty leagues. I just acquired him as over the 1000th prospect owned in a deep 24 team dynasty. Prospects1500 has him off the board around 270th if I remember correctly, with a small write up in their prospect mock draft series. Wait for a real scouting report on Golden in shallower leagues, but deep dynasty players should consider him now. 

Yep i picked him up last season mid way through. Everyone i show this dude to say WTF how did i miss stats like that lol. BUY NOW.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was one of the oldest players in A Ball. He just turned 24.  If he's got that big of holes in his swing against a bunch of pitchers younger/less developed than him...

 

The usual MO is age to level matter more in the lower minors, stat profiles matter more in the upper minors.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Completely agree with you Slaty, not touting him as a future top-100 guy or anything. If he didn't have the stolen bases I wouldn't have even considered picking him up, but at a point in my draft where minor league relievers and J2 signees not on top 30 lists are going off the board I think he is worth the near non-existant price tag. At the very least that stat line might sucker another owner in my league during trade talks! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I think it's pretty safe to pass on a 24 year old Rookie in A ball with a 34% k rate. 

 

Casey Golden turned 24 after the season.  So he was 23 last year.  He was a 4 year college player drafted in the same draft class as Brendan McKay, Keston Hiura, Pavin Smith.

 

McKay and Smith finished 2018 in Advanced A so only one level above.  Keston played the first 1/3 of the season in Advanced A and then finished out in AA.  So if Golden is in Double A before the season's half over he won't be far behind the elite "players" of his draft.  Albeit he is a year older than they are.

 

So while he doesn't have the most desirable pedigree / path to the majors and I understand there being tempered expectations because of this.  But I also wouldn't ignore how dominant he was in A ball last year.  His 34.35K% is something to watch with him especially since his walk rate is only 7.25%.  But he could jump past a lot of prospects if he has another big season.  Could be a Tommy Pham like late bloomer.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TrueShoe said:

 

Casey Golden turned 24 after the season.  So he was 23 last year.  He was a 4 year college player drafted in the same draft class as Brendan McKay, Keston Hiura, Pavin Smith.

 

McKay and Smith finished 2018 in Advanced A so only one level above.  Keston played the first 1/3 of the season in Advanced A and then finished out in AA.  So if Golden is in Double A before the season's half over he won't be far behind the elite "players" of his draft.  Albeit he is a year older than they are.

 

So while he doesn't have the most desirable pedigree / path to the majors and I understand there being tempered expectations because of this.  But I also wouldn't ignore how dominant he was in A ball last year.  His 34.35K% is something to watch with him especially since his walk rate is only 7.25%.  But he could jump past a lot of prospects if he has another big season.  Could be a Tommy Pham like late bloomer.

 

The number of players who have done well in the majors when they've had a minors season with a  34% K rate in a significant sample size iisn't good.  I did look at Tommy Pham , funny enough he is one of them as he had a 36% one year.... in 2008. Jesus. 10 years ago.  It way less PA than Glden last year and Pham was 3 years younger at the time, and then it still took him NINE years before he became fantasy relevant.  I also don't think Pavin Smith and Mckay are future fantasy hitting stars.

 

I wont say 0% chance on anyone, Golden could overcome the odds (even though I know nothing about him other than whats on his default fangraphs page), but it's a real long shot, even by prospect longshot standards. I'm guessing theres probably at least 500 guys I'd rather have.

Edited by brockpapersizer
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

The number of players who have done well in the majors when they've had a minors season with a  34% K rate in a significant sample size iisn't good.  I did look at Tommy Pham , funny enough he is one of them as he had a 36% one year.... in 2008. Jesus. 10 years ago.  It way less PA than Glden last year and Pham was 3 years younger at the time, and then it still took him NINE years before he became fantasy relevant.  I also don't think Pavin Smith and Mckay are future fantasy hitting stars.

 

I wont say 0% chance on anyone, Golden could overcome the odds (even though I know nothing about him other than whats on his default fangraphs page), but it's a real long shot, even by prospect longshot standards. I'm guessing theres probably at least 500 guys I'd rather have.

 

Man I created quite a stir with my mention of Golden, but I think we are all on the same page here. There are definitely 400 prospects I'd rather have, likely more. Looking at James Anderson's ranks at Rotowire I selected Golden over Jack Herman (314), Luis Madero (326), Jamie Westbrook (364) but otherwise his top 400 was pretty well picked over. In deep leagues like mine (1440 minor leaguers owned) guys like Golden are worth picking up, and I thought worth a tout in this thread.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, lobsterback said:

 

Man I created quite a stir with my mention of Golden, but I think we are all on the same page here. There are definitely 400 prospects I'd rather have, likely more. Looking at James Anderson's ranks at Rotowire I selected Golden over Jack Herman (314), Luis Madero (326), Jamie Westbrook (364) but otherwise his top 400 was pretty well picked over. In deep leagues like mine (1440 minor leaguers owned) guys like Golden are worth picking up, and I thought worth a tout in this thread.

Everyone has there opinions, some think they know it all, they don't, I agree with you, and plan on picking him up when a roster

spot on my 40 man minor league roster comes available, thanks for bringing him to my attention.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nah I don't think there was any "know-it-all" sentiment going on, just debate over where Golden belongs in prospect ranks. The prospects1500 minor league draft (link below) had him WAY too early around 250. Other than that he has virtually zero media coverage, so we will have to take a wait and see approach until either a Rockies top prospect list comes out mentioning him or a scout with an internet presence writes him up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We can say anything can happen. Because it certainly can. I'd prefer to focus on higher percentage calls.  We know the Low A pitches are way worse than AA pitchers. 

 

Making contact is the most difficult thing. When it comes to senior signs. We've seen players with great contact skills late bloom into power. (Brian Dozier, Tyler White) Reverse engineering, is usual much harder and I can't think of a single example of a 23 year old in A Ball.

 

Its a different ball game when we are talking about AAA/AA high K guys who are older. Because they only need to improve their contact skills enough to make 1 jump. You have a guy that just turned 24 that has make exponential improvements to hit.  I prefer to throw my betting chips on the plus age to level hitter with tools that struggled last year. Short season skill bets,  Or the various older AAA/AA Guy who crushed.

 

Like Rangel Ravelo or Joey Meneses

Edited by Slatykamora

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

The number of players who have done well in the majors when they've had a minors season with a  34% K rate in a significant sample size iisn't good.  I did look at Tommy Pham , funny enough he is one of them as he had a 36% one year.... in 2008. Jesus. 10 years ago.  It way less PA than Glden last year and Pham was 3 years younger at the time, and then it still took him NINE years before he became fantasy relevant.  I also don't think Pavin Smith and Mckay are future fantasy hitting stars.

 

I wont say 0% chance on anyone, Golden could overcome the odds (even though I know nothing about him other than whats on his default fangraphs page), but it's a real long shot, even by prospect longshot standards. I'm guessing theres probably at least 500 guys I'd rather have.

 

A few things.  I am not saying McKay or Pavin Smith are going to be fantasy hitting stars (McKay looks like the writing is on the wall and will be a pitcher).  I'm just pointing out that Golden isn't as far off as the "elite" players out of that same draft.

 

A few things to further a somewhat comp of Tommy Pham.  Pham never had the type of power Casey Golden is showing.  Which we all know has a much higher fantasy ceiling than say speedy lead off guy.  

 

A lot of people passed on the likes of Brandon Lowe cause he was "too old" as well.  Bregman, Benitendi, Happ they all have already shown fantasy relevance... Lowe is just starting to.   Hell J.D. Martinez got out right cut and shortly after becomes a top 10 hitter.  A lot can change very quickly in this game.

 

Also look at how much more talent is in the minor leagues now compared to 10 years ago.  Every year the minor league level gets drastically better.  

 

Again I'm not saying the concerns aren't warranted with his age and K%.  But I also have a hard time believing there's 500 prospects better than Golden.  Baseball has evolved into a different type of a game.  Yes more guys strikeout now.  Yes guys can maintain fantasy relevance with high K%.  Not ideal by any means but it can happen and it will happen more and more as we continue through this era of elevation and power hitting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

We can say anything can happen. Because it certainly can. I'd prefer to focus on higher percentage calls.  We know the Low A pitches are way worse than AA pitchers. 

 

Making contact is the most difficult thing. When it comes to senior signs. We've seen players with great contact skills late bloom into power. (Brian Dozier, Tyler White) Reverse engineering, is usual much harder and I can't think of a single example of a 23 year old in A Ball.

 

Its a different ball game when we are talking about AAA/AA high K guys who are older. Because they only need to improve their contact skills enough to make 1 jump. You have a guy that just turned 24 that has make exponential improvements to hit.  I prefer to throw my betting chips on the plus age to level hitter with tools that struggled last year. Short season skill bets,  Or the various older AAA/AA Guy who crushed.

 

Like Rangel Ravelo or Joey Meneses

 

I too like Rangel Ravelo, from a great highschool (produced Bucky Dent and Charlie Hough among other MLB talents).  

 

But even "reverse engineer" Joey Meneses.  The dude was in Advanced A ball at 23 OPSing .625 are you honestly going to tell me that you think being 1 level higher makes up for OPSing 300 points lower?  It doesn't I'll take the guy one level down hitting better just about every time.   Now I do understand we are more so valuing Meneses at what he did last year in the International League which no doubt was impressive enough to warrant some fantasy thought at the very least.  The other thing that is being vastly over looked in Golden's case is how little pro experience he has.  Put his age aside and realize this was his first full season as a professional player.  I think far better comps would come out of looking at players in their first full year as a pro that even made it to A ball let alone produced in this fashion.

 

The way I see it is Golden is some what of a lottery ticket type player if he can make it to AA next year and produce then his value jumps big time.  Even if he just carries over what he did in A ball to Advanced A his value jumps a good amount.  But until then there certainly are question marks.  But with the type of upside he could have what do you have to lose using a bottom roster spot on in a deeper keeper / dynasty league?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's turn this into a more productive discussion, less about Golden and more about low-level outfielders. Some guys I took ahead of him in my recent draft that IMO should fall into the 300-400 overall range of prospects, with obvious upside to jump that:

 

Anthony Garcia, OF, NYY

17 year old 6'6" switch-hitting outfielder who reportedly moves well for his size, but has the K% that typically accompanies a frame like his. 2080 Baseball has several clips of him (one below), but I feel like his mechanics at this stage don't reveal as much about his potential as his body and the fact that he is with an organization that has at least been able to harness Judge's similar body. With an obvious comp like Judge around in a big media market, Garcia could become a benefactor of serious prospect hype, a fact that savvy dynasty leaguers might be able to exploit.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dom Thompson-Williams, OF, SEA (as of today)

I was just about to write him up when the Paxton trade came out, so long "sleeper" status. A 5th round pick in 2016, DTW finally broke out in high-A ball this season to a .290/.356/.517 line with 17 HR and 17 SB good for a 147 wRC+. Keep in mind the solid points made about a 23 year old in A-ball from the Golden discussion, but DTW (I'm making that abbreviation a thing this season) put up his numbers with a 25% K rate. Below is a nice open-faced video of his lefty swing from early in 2018. In their recent top Yankees prospect list the Prospects Live writers made a solid point about the way in which DTW loads his hands low and keeps them low through the initiation of the swing, and the resulting concerns about his potential to continue to hit for power. However, (prior to the trade) DTW can be grabbed for free in most prospect settings, with decent pedigree and now very above-average offensive numbers on his resume.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This one is going to bring back the Casey Golden haters, but check out the Blue Jays 10th rd pick Cal Stevenson's rookie ball stat line: 29.9% walk rate, 11.1% K rate, all while racking up a triple slash of .369/.511/.523 with 21 steals and was only caught stealing once! 22 years old, a lefty bat that likely profiles in a corner spot, Stevenson again probably doesn't have an everyday regular ceiling at the moment but us deep dynasty players have to pay attention to the statline so far.

 

Again 2080 has great open-faced video of his swing from this summer. Looks like his hands are pretty noisy during the set up, and he is definitely out on his front leg when he makes contact in the last at bat of the video. All you more qualified swing mechanic gurus please share your thoughts! 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No one hates Casey Golden,.  Most of us play in leagues with a limited number of minor league spots. It's just a really high k rate coupled with being a lower level prospect who is old for his level.  The Rockies entire minor league org pretty much plays in hitter friendly parks and have a lot of hitters who you can dream on for being a good hitter with Coors added.  Roberto Ramos is well ahead of Golden, hit over 30 home runs last year and is younger than Golden, and even he seems like a longshot.

 

Someone brought up Brandon Lowe as a knock on underestimating Golden. Did you have Brandon Lowe since early 2017? If Casey Golden gets up to AA quick and starts raking there, I see more value in getting him.  I feel like Brandon Lowe didnt get much buzz before this last season and in all the deeper dynastys he was owned in, I'd venture to guess he was a 2018 pickup in most of them. That's kind of my point.  Nothing wrong with an older prospect whose made some changes and investing in them when they are closer to the majors (more on that later with a name!).  That being said, I wouldn't hang my hat on Brandon Lowe. Let's say you are an outstanding fantasy prospector and owned him very early in 2017, or dare I say before that! Congratulations! You have a fringe 12 team MI option. I'm sure he has deep league and AL Only value more so, but nobody is really kicking themselves for not jumping on the Brandon Lowe train super early. I would just rather investing in 17 year old international hoping one pops like a Wander Franco/Tatis/Eloy/Vlad if I'm making a multi year investment play. I'd rather waste 4-5 spots and get 1 of those guys and than waste 4-5 spots to get 3-4 Brandon Lowes.

 

 

I'm not sure if he has been mentioned or by whom (I feel like he probably has), but I have a 26 year old prospect who might be worth mentioning for deeper leagues.  Dodgers... .Connor Joe.  Made some swing adjustments and raked last year in AA and  did fine in AAA.  Unlike Casey Golden, we will find out sooner rather than later on Joe.  Last 2 years Dodgers have had a late bloomer blow up (Taylor, then Muncy).  Is Connor Joe next?

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/5/12/17347090/post-hype-prospect-to-watch-connor-joe-los-angeles-dodgers

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm with @brockpapersizer.  For sure, if you have space and believe in Golden there is no risk if it is a deep deep roster to carry him.  That said, for every Golden that becomes a "Tommy Pham" late bloomer, there are 100+ other guys with those K rates that become 4-A type players.  They have a strong minor league career but do not have any long-term success in the majors.  Joey Gallo would seem to be the exception, but I dare say that his draft selection and pedigree made it more tolerable to deal with the K numbers as he ascended the minors.  I'm sure if Golden turned into Gallo that would be a nice find for you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

I'm with @brockpapersizer.  For sure, if you have space and believe in Golden there is no risk if it is a deep deep roster to carry him.  That said, for every Golden that becomes a "Tommy Pham" late bloomer, there are 100+ other guys with those K rates that become 4-A type players.  They have a strong minor league career but do not have any long-term success in the majors.  Joey Gallo would seem to be the exception, but I dare say that his draft selection and pedigree made it more tolerable to deal with the K numbers as he ascended the minors.  I'm sure if Golden turned into Gallo that would be a nice find for you.

 

We are officially all on the same page here. Gallo would be an absolutely INCREDIBLE outcome for Golden, so much so that it doesn't even make sense to even bring a top 10 mlb first baseman into this conversation. Just making a 40 man roster is beyond my reasonable expectations for a 20th round pick. You can say the same about all of the 16 year old J2 signees not listed on MLBPipeline's top 30 list, which is the group of prospects where I think Golden should be ranked around

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, lobsterback said:

 

We are officially all on the same page here. Gallo would be an absolutely INCREDIBLE outcome for Golden, so much so that it doesn't even make sense to even bring a top 10 mlb first baseman into this conversation. Just making a 40 man roster is beyond my reasonable expectations for a 20th round pick. You can say the same about all of the 16 year old J2 signees not listed on MLBPipeline's top 30 list, which is the group of prospects where I think Golden should be ranked around

 

top 30 on a team or top 30 in the class? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

top 30 on a team or top 30 in the class? 

I should have specified, top 30 in the 2018 J2 class. For example Freddy Valdez of the Mets (27 on the list) went about 60 picks ahead and Luis Matos (29 on the list) about 80 picks ahead of Golden.

 

In most cases I would much rather take the shot at getting a Fernando Tatis Jr (who I think I recall was ranked 30th on the same MLBPipeline list) with these picks, and therefore agree with taking the J2 player over any non-pedigree (say 6th round draft pick or later) college bat in the low minors. I think you'll agree with me there, and this is a point that is worth sharing to give our fellow dynasty players an edge in the prospect game. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, lobsterback said:

I should have specified, top 30 in the 2018 J2 class. For example Freddy Valdez of the Mets (27 on the list) went about 60 picks ahead and Luis Matos (29 on the list) about 80 picks ahead of Golden.

 

In most cases I would much rather take the shot at getting a Fernando Tatis Jr (who I think I recall was ranked 30th on the same MLBPipeline list) with these picks, and therefore agree with taking the J2 player over any non-pedigree (say 6th round draft pick or later) college bat in the low minors. I think you'll agree with me there, and this is a point that is worth sharing to give our fellow dynasty players an edge in the prospect game. 

 

Totally agree with you at that point. I'd say as of now, none of my leagues are deep enough to warrant owning guys not in the top 30 of a J2 class until they've started to pop stateside. I was able to get Danny Diaz for free after the injury last year, and Diaz was like a top 7 guy in his class.  My league runs close to 500 minor leaguers owned, so that's why I think guys like Golden are merely watch list guys for me at the moment. I know other leaguers are deeper than mine, but I already seem to be in the minority at my depth. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

No one hates Casey Golden,.  Most of us play in leagues with a limited number of minor league spots. It's just a really high k rate coupled with being a lower level prospect who is old for his level.  The Rockies entire minor league org pretty much plays in hitter friendly parks and have a lot of hitters who you can dream on for being a good hitter with Coors added.  Roberto Ramos is well ahead of Golden, hit over 30 home runs last year and is younger than Golden, and even he seems like a longshot.

 

Someone brought up Brandon Lowe as a knock on underestimating Golden. Did you have Brandon Lowe since early 2017? If Casey Golden gets up to AA quick and starts raking there, I see more value in getting him.  I feel like Brandon Lowe didnt get much buzz before this last season and in all the deeper dynastys he was owned in, I'd venture to guess he was a 2018 pickup in most of them. That's kind of my point.  Nothing wrong with an older prospect whose made some changes and investing in them when they are closer to the majors (more on that later with a name!).  That being said, I wouldn't hang my hat on Brandon Lowe. Let's say you are an outstanding fantasy prospector and owned him very early in 2017, or dare I say before that! Congratulations! You have a fringe 12 team MI option. I'm sure he has deep league and AL Only value more so, but nobody is really kicking themselves for not jumping on the Brandon Lowe train super early. I would just rather investing in 17 year old international hoping one pops like a Wander Franco/Tatis/Eloy/Vlad if I'm making a multi year investment play. I'd rather waste 4-5 spots and get 1 of those guys and than waste 4-5 spots to get 3-4 Brandon Lowes.

 

Yes Lowe was a pick up but many dynasty owners saw him but passed up due to his age (granted he's really only 1 grade older and a few months older than Golden).  I was the one who picked him up in 2 of my 3 deep dynasties and I was on the fence and took an extra week or 2 to pull the trigger cause of his age.  

 

While I don't disagree with your logic of taking lottery tickets on more unknown elements and younger players.  Vlad, Eloy, Tatis, and Franco all were elite international prospects.  In a draft situation those guys would be long gone before you drafted a guy like Golden.  Vlad and Tatis were 1 and 2 international prospects the year they signed and Vlad went in the 1st round and Tatis in the early 2nd round in my dynasty drafts that year.  Franco last year was the 2nd or 3rd international prospect off the board in all my dynasties (counting Ohtani).  Eloy was a top international pick as well.

 

I also think you're undervaluing Brandon Lowe.  Don't be surprised if he has a better triple slash line than Tatis and/or Eloy over the next 3 years.  I think it's almost a certainty Lowe will produce more runs the next 2-3 seasons compared to Vlad, Eloy, Tatis (Franco).  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Totally agree with you at that point. I'd say as of now, none of my leagues are deep enough to warrant owning guys not in the top 30 of a J2 class until they've started to pop stateside. I was able to get Danny Diaz for free after the injury last year, and Diaz was like a top 7 guy in his class.  My league runs close to 500 minor leaguers owned, so that's why I think guys like Golden are merely watch list guys for me at the moment. I know other leaguers are deeper than mine, but I already seem to be in the minority at my depth. 

 

If you got 500 minor leaguers Golden should be owned.  I'm sure most of the teams in your league have 3-4 prospects they could get rid of for Golden.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...