lobsterback

2019 "Deep" Sleepers

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Just now, TrueShoe said:

 

If you got 500 minor leaguers Golden should be owned.  I'm sure most of the teams in your league have 3-4 prospects they could get rid of for Golden.

 

I'm sure there's a few owners who are very poor at the minor league side of things that could benefit from adding him, but my watch list alone has guys I'd rather own than him. The aforementioned Roberto Ramos is unowned.

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5 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'm sure there's a few owners who are very poor at the minor league side of things that could benefit from adding him, but my watch list alone has guys I'd rather own than him. The aforementioned Roberto Ramos is unowned.

 

Roberto Ramos could end up being a big time sleeper too.  I too would rather have him than Golden.  Higher in the minors, still bad but better K%, and even more power.

 

For what it's worth both Golden and Ramos are owned in my 400 prospect league (I own neither of them).

Edited by TrueShoe
needed to add something

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5 minutes ago, TrueShoe said:

 

Roberto Ramos could end up being a big time sleeper too.  I too would rather have him than Golden.  Higher in the minors, still bad but better K%, and even more power.

 

For what it's worth both Golden and Ramos are owned in my 400 prospect league (I own neither of them).

 

I agree with all of that, but I also think gun to my head, neither of them are ever top 150 picks in fantasy baseball. 

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17 hours ago, TrueShoe said:

 

I too like Rangel Ravelo, from a great highschool (produced Bucky Dent and Charlie Hough among other MLB talents).  

 

But even "reverse engineer" Joey Meneses.  The dude was in Advanced A ball at 23 OPSing .625 are you honestly going to tell me that you think being 1 level higher makes up for OPSing 300 points lower?  It doesn't I'll take the guy one level down hitting better just about every time.   Now I do understand we are more so valuing Meneses at what he did last year in the International League which no doubt was impressive enough to warrant some fantasy thought at the very least.  The other thing that is being vastly over looked in Golden's case is how little pro experience he has.  Put his age aside and realize this was his first full season as a professional player.  I think far better comps would come out of looking at players in their first full year as a pro that even made it to A ball let alone produced in this fashion.

 

The way I see it is Golden is some what of a lottery ticket type player if he can make it to AA next year and produce then his value jumps big time.  Even if he just carries over what he did in A ball to Advanced A his value jumps a good amount.  But until then there certainly are question marks.  But with the type of upside he could have what do you have to lose using a bottom roster spot on in a deeper keeper / dynasty league?

So? He hit like 3 HRs then and he's in AAA now. If you are playing in a very deep minor league roster. You should have appreiction towards proximity to majors.

 

Golden is worth owing in the very deep formats for the simple reason others thinks he's worth something. An Asset is an asset. Gallo and Pham were high schoolers and were on different developmental points...but there are people want to follow the raw stats.  Can do whatever you want. Prospecting is not some perfect formula or anything.

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5 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

So? He hit like 3 HRs then and he's in AAA now. If you are playing in a very deep minor league roster. You should have appreiction towards proximity to majors.

 

Golden is worth owing in the very deep formats for the simple reason others thinks he's worth something. An Asset is an asset. Gallo and Pham were high schoolers and were on different developmental points...but there are people want to follow the raw stats.  Can do whatever you want. Prospecting is not some perfect formula or anything.

 

 

The deeper the minor league system the less importance proximity becomes.

 

Also Ben Zobrist is another example 24 in A ball (way better K%).

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17 minutes ago, TrueShoe said:

 

 

The deeper the minor league system the less importance proximity becomes.

 

Also Ben Zobrist is another example 24 in A ball (way better K%).

 Fair point. I guess i'm jumping to conclusion that if you play in these deep minor leagues. They are deep leagues in general. There is little point in having a extremely deep MILB pool smaller leagues because the replacement level MLB production is so high.

 

Zorbrist who had 47 BB and 35 K's in 310 PAs?  You have done nothing to disprove my point about high K% guys in the low minors that are also old for their level.

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7 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

 Fair point. I guess i'm jumping to conclusion that if you play in these deep minor leagues. They are deep leagues in general. There is little point in having a extremely deep MILB pool smaller leagues because the replacement level MLB production is so high.

 

Zorbrist who had 47 BB and 35 K's in 310 PAs?  You have done nothing to disprove my point about high K% guys in the low minors that are also old for their level.

 

I never said there weren't warts and risks to him.  But if he does carry over that type of production to Advanced A and/or AA next year he would then find himself probably in the top 100.

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1 hour ago, TrueShoe said:

 

Yes Lowe was a pick up but many dynasty owners saw him but passed up due to his age (granted he's really only 1 grade older and a few months older than Golden).  I was the one who picked him up in 2 of my 3 deep dynasties and I was on the fence and took an extra week or 2 to pull the trigger cause of his age.  

 

While I don't disagree with your logic of taking lottery tickets on more unknown elements and younger players.  Vlad, Eloy, Tatis, and Franco all were elite international prospects.  In a draft situation those guys would be long gone before you drafted a guy like Golden.  Vlad and Tatis were 1 and 2 international prospects the year they signed and Vlad went in the 1st round and Tatis in the early 2nd round in my dynasty drafts that year.  Franco last year was the 2nd or 3rd international prospect off the board in all my dynasties (counting Ohtani).  Eloy was a top international pick as well.

 

I also think you're undervaluing Brandon Lowe.  Don't be surprised if he has a better triple slash line than Tatis and/or Eloy over the next 3 years.  I think it's almost a certainty Lowe will produce more runs the next 2-3 seasons compared to Vlad, Eloy, Tatis (Franco).  

 

I want to point you to a post I made a month or two ago (linked below) in which I show the last 4 years of J2 classes and compare the MLB Pipeline rankings from that season to their overall prospect rank today. I was trying to make a point about the tremendous volatility of the J2 rankings published by mlb, as the final overall rank of those top 30 J2 signees can be all over the place. As I said before, find Tatis in the 2015 ranks. He is all the way at the bottom, number 30, not what I would call a top international signing in most of us dynasty players' frame of mind.

 

This is the argument that we need to confine ourselves to - do you draft Luis Matos (last hitter on MLBPipeline's 2018 J2 ranks) or Casey Golden? Brockpapersizer advocates for the J2 signee, pointing at Tatis as a prime example of the upside. I agree with him, but I wouldn't draft Golden all that far behind Matos. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, lobsterback said:

I want to point you to a post I made a month or two ago (linked below) in which I show the last 4 years of J2 classes and compare the MLB Pipeline rankings from that season to their overall prospect rank today. I was trying to make a point about the tremendous volatility of the J2 rankings published by mlb, as the final overall rank of those top 30 J2 signees can be all over the place. As I said before, find Tatis in the 2015 ranks. He is all the way at the bottom, number 30, not what I would call a top international signing in most of us dynasty players' frame of mind.

 

This is the argument that we need to confine ourselves to - do you draft Luis Matos (last hitter on MLBPipeline's 2018 J2 ranks) or Casey Golden? Brockpapersizer advocates for the J2 signee, pointing at Tatis as a prime example of the upside. I agree with him, but I wouldn't draft Golden all that far behind Matos. 

 

 

 

Important caveat with the International thing though. Even when theres a class of 30 guys, you can get enough content pretty easily to determine which guys are absolutley worth avoiding for fantasy. Many of them only have reliever upside. Bye Bye.  A lot of them are defensive specialits who didn't even rake at whatever low level league they came from,. Bye Bye.  So even in a J2 Class top 30, I'm still really only advocating 6-10 guys at most I'd own over Golden. That guy the Dodgers signed who's #1/2  in the class or whatever, Diego Cartaya. I dont know man. You're waiting like 6-8 years on a minor leaguer to barely move the needle and hope he stays at catcher.  I remember hearing about Abe Guiterez a long time ago, and he's still really far away. You really need to not only be in a deep league, but a league good enough thats going to be around in a decade to reap the reward on some of these guys.

 

So in my leagues when I say J2 class, Im really talking about the guys with exceptional power or MI who are hit first or have a reallly good bat to ball.  That falls way short of most of the guys in the 30.

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Very good point. Heck I ignore all J2 pitchers completely. Looking back since 2015 this would have bypassed drafting top-30 J2 arms like Yadier Alvarez, Adrian Morejon, Norge Ruiz (remember when he was a thing?), Cionel Perez, Vladimir Gutierrez, Eric Pardinho. Some nice names there, but those are just the prospects I have heard of. Plenty more that I have not. 

 

That means this year steer clear of Sandy Gaston, Richard Gallardo, Starlyn Castillo, Osiel Rodriguez. Draft the non-catcher hitters ranked around them like Alexander Vargas, Kevin Alcantara, Junior Sanquintin. Just remember to come back to this forum in 5-6 years time and beg Brock and I to sign your baby's forehead as your dynasty team is in full force.

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11 hours ago, TrueShoe said:

I also think you're undervaluing Brandon Lowe.  Don't be surprised if he has a better triple slash line than Tatis and/or Eloy over the next 3 years.  I think it's almost a certainty Lowe will produce more runs the next 2-3 seasons compared to Vlad, Eloy, Tatis (Franco).  

 

 

Yeah Brandon Lowe really had a monster year last year in the minors.  I don't know how much of that will carry over to the majors in '19 (I hope a lot of it).  But his numbers were just great.  Also if you take his first 2 weeks out (slow start) his triple slash line in the minors over 86 games (40 in AA and 46 in AAA) .313 / .410 / .598 most of this done in The International League.

 

Also note that he had a slow start in the majors as well when he went hitless in his first 22 plate appearances.  Take out his first 22 PA's and his triple slash line (126 PAs) would read:  .273 / .357 / .546 for a .903 OPS.  

 

Take Brandon Lowe's 25 RBI in the Major Leagues.  Pace his 148 PAs over 600 PAs and those 25 RBI become 101 RBI.  This is pretty encouraging considering he only hit higher than 5th one time last year and about 60% of his games were hitting 7th, 8th, or 9th in the lineup.  Extrapolate his RBI after taking out his first hitless 22 PAs over a 600 PA season and he'd pace out to 119 RBI.  Now obviously this small sample stuff ever rare translates 100% as well as you have to take September pitching with a grain of salt.  But that's a pretty impressive 126 PA trend.

 

Nathaniel Lowe looks like a really good under rated prospect as well.  Nathaniel is about a year behind Brandon Lowe also in The Rays system.

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18 hours ago, lobsterback said:

 

 

 Just remember to come back to this forum in 5-6 years time and beg Brock and I to sign your baby's forehead as your dynasty team is in full force.

 

I'll be here. I need to look into the guys you mentioned for my FYPD.  Which ones do you like most? He's obviously higher on the list, but I like Orvelis.

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12 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'll be here. I need to look into the guys you mentioned for my FYPD.  Which ones do you like most? He's obviously higher on the list, but I like Orvelis.

I like Orelvis Martinez as the 3rd best J2 prospect, lots of offensive potential there. Reminds me of Ronny Mauricio at this point last year with more power projection. But everyone else likes him there too, or flip-flopped with the Mariners Noelvi Marte; he's not much of a secret in my experience so far.

 

Lower ranked guys that I think should be ranked much higher in fantasy leagues than MLBPipeline has them ranked: Alexander Vargas (solid tools across the board, most importantly the hit tool), Kevin Alcantara (Yankee hype, plus speed and defensive potential, high reported exit velos) and Alvin Guzman (another potential power+speed combo). I've heard good things about Misael Urbina too but don't know much about him and saw he is already highly ranked on mlbpipeline, so may not be much arbitrage opportunity in offseason drafts. 

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4 minutes ago, lobsterback said:

I like Orelvis Martinez as the 3rd best J2 prospect, lots of offensive potential there. Reminds me of Ronny Mauricio at this point last year with more power projection. But everyone else likes him there too, or flip-flopped with the Mariners Noelvi Marte; he's not much of a secret in my experience so far.

 

Lower ranked guys that I think should be ranked much higher in fantasy leagues than MLBPipeline has them ranked: Alexander Vargas (solid tools across the board, most importantly the hit tool), Kevin Alcantara (Yankee hype, plus speed and defensive potential, high reported exit velos) and Alvin Guzman (another potential power+speed combo). I've heard good things about Misael Urbina too but don't know much about him and saw he is already highly ranked on mlbpipeline, so may not be much arbitrage opportunity in offseason drafts. 

 

@lobsterback thanks for this.  What's the upside of Marte (position and projection) that you've heard to date?

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59 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

 

@lobsterback thanks for this.  What's the upside of Marte (position and projection) that you've heard to date?

A ton to like from a fantasy perspective though the consensus is that he'll shift off shortstop eventually. Plus bat speed, uses a high leg kick at the moment. Has above average speed that the pros think he will grow out of as he is 6'1" and 185 lbs already at 17. James Anderson with Rotowire (best prospect ranker in the biz IMO) has Martinez around 50 spots higher than Marte at the moment, but we don't really have any substantial info to differentiate them at the moment besides current frame and the resulting projection and defensive implication. 

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On 11/21/2018 at 9:01 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'll be here. I need to look into the guys you mentioned for my FYPD.  Which ones do you like most? He's obviously higher on the list, but I like Orvelis.

Malcom Nunez, 3B, STL.

Kid's a beast. Was a touch old for the DSL (typical high-ranked J2 signees closer to 16-years old) but played a full slate in his signing year which actually puts him on pace with typical 16-year-old J2 signees who don't play until the following year in DSL/VSL leagues.

You can look up his stats but this wouldn't be a tout without quoting a few, all from baseball-reference.com.

In 199 PAs, Nunez walked AND struck out about 15% of the time - good-to-great on both fronts. He also hit 13 homers - mind you, double-digit homers in foreign summer leagues are somewhat rare. I know, 'but his bat-to-ball skills are probably suspect', well he hit .415 with 127 total bases.

He signed with a reputation for an advanced plate approach and proved it all summer long. He's got the arm to stick at third but glovework unknown. Here's one of the few, good write-ups I've found on him: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2018/7/22/17585228/system-sundays-a-quick-look-at-malcom-nunez

I tried to trade up to nab this kid but as he was dropping, I thought I might get him - he got picked 2 spots ahead of me. Don't be me - he should be your #1 IFA target.

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31 minutes ago, txrngr34 said:

Malcom Nunez, 3B, STL.

Kid's a beast. Was a touch old for the DSL (typical high-ranked J2 signees closer to 16-years old) but played a full slate in his signing year which actually puts him on pace with typical 16-year-old J2 signees who don't play until the following year in DSL/VSL leagues.

You can look up his stats but this wouldn't be a tout without quoting a few, all from baseball-reference.com.

In 199 PAs, Nunez walked AND struck out about 15% of the time - good-to-great on both fronts. He also hit 13 homers - mind you, double-digit homers in foreign summer leagues are somewhat rare. I know, 'but his bat-to-ball skills are probably suspect', well he hit .415 with 127 total bases.

He signed with a reputation for an advanced plate approach and proved it all summer long. He's got the arm to stick at third but glovework unknown. Here's one of the few, good write-ups I've found on him: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2018/7/22/17585228/system-sundays-a-quick-look-at-malcom-nunez

I tried to trade up to nab this kid but as he was dropping, I thought I might get him - he got picked 2 spots ahead of me. Don't be me - he should be your #1 IFA target.

I think the argument that Nunez played in the DSL the same year as his signing can be used as a crutch. That is you can take it as a positive as most J2 signees don't play until the following year, or a negative in that while he played the Cardinals didn't bother to bring him stateside for that ball. I think we should throw that argument out as a potential data point. 

 

I'm with you, the numbers are beastly and he appears to be an exciting prospect. However I am yet to see a reputable prospect analyst place Nunez at anything other than 1B long-term, and several have said he is limited to 1B already (not a good sign for his prospects cracking a NL roster). 

 

I think he should be up there in your J2 ranks, but probably falls behind Noelvi Marte and ahead of Alexander Vargas in my own rankings, good for 8th overall. Don't be suckered by the statline this far away from the majors, there are plenty of levels for supreme athleticism to win out over a season's production in the DSL

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14 minutes ago, lobsterback said:

I think the argument that Nunez played in the DSL the same year as his signing can be used as a crutch. That is you can take it as a positive as most J2 signees don't play until the following year, or a negative in that while he played the Cardinals didn't bother to bring him stateside for that ball. I think we should throw that argument out as a potential data point. 

 

I'm with you, the numbers are beastly and he appears to be an exciting prospect. However I am yet to see a reputable prospect analyst place Nunez at anything other than 1B long-term, and several have said he is limited to 1B already (not a good sign for his prospects cracking a NL roster). 

 

I think he should be up there in your J2 ranks, but probably falls behind Noelvi Marte and ahead of Alexander Vargas in my own rankings, good for 8th overall. Don't be suckered by the statline this far away from the majors, there are plenty of levels for supreme athleticism to win out over a season's production in the DSL

To each his own, no doubt.

The only guys I'd make an argument for ahead of Nunez are Luciano and Alcantara, but I believe both are significantly higher ranked than Nunez.

I like Marte, too, but he's only 7 months younger than Nunez and hasn't played any competitive ball other than against other academies. I like scouting reports and projection as much as the next guy - but I'll still take the kid that actually crushed in competitive ball at league-average age and should make his stateside debut soon over the 7-month-younger kid who may not even play US rookie ball until 2020.

If the Cards send Nunez back to the DSL, that'll be an indicator something's not right with him. If the Mariners send Marte stateside after (or maybe even instead of) DSL ball in 2019, that'll be an indicator that the kid's more special than I thought.

Either way, too early for me to hang my hat on either. But given Nunez's lack of publicity/hype, eye-popping DSL numbers, and relatively on-track progression towards stateside ball - I'm drafting Nunez ahead of Marte, Luciano, or Alcantara. Of course, this could easily change come July when we know more about where these kids will play and how well. I'm making my case for today, though.

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On 11/24/2018 at 1:12 AM, lobsterback said:

I think the argument that Nunez played in the DSL the same year as his signing can be used as a crutch. That is you can take it as a positive as most J2 signees don't play until the following year, or a negative in that while he played the Cardinals didn't bother to bring him stateside for that ball. I think we should throw that argument out as a potential data point. 

 

I'm with you, the numbers are beastly and he appears to be an exciting prospect. However I am yet to see a reputable prospect analyst place Nunez at anything other than 1B long-term, and several have said he is limited to 1B already (not a good sign for his prospects cracking a NL roster). 

 

I think he should be up there in your J2 ranks, but probably falls behind Noelvi Marte and ahead of Alexander Vargas in my own rankings, good for 8th overall. Don't be suckered by the statline this far away from the majors, there are plenty of levels for supreme athleticism to win out over a season's production in the DSL

He's from Cuba and Cuban players have trouble getting Work visa's right away. So not coming state side doesn't mean anything right now.

 

We don't usually "see" the issues because they wait a year for the teenagers. Or when the older the cubans are declared eligible, the visa issues were figured out.

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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I'm not sure how I feel about Nunez. Fangraphs was super low on him. Think they had him in the 20s for the Cardinals?  Most analysts seem to think his DSL numbers are pretty pointless, as impressive as the are. I'm torn. I mean even at a poop league he still did it as a 17 year old.

 

If you managed to pick him up for free during the season last year in a deepish minors league, I'm all for it.  He's definitely one of the 400 best prospects to own, even if its a helluva gamble.  Might even be in the top 300 or 250 (or even better to some)

 

The real interesting is where you would rank him as a fantasy asset in first year player drafts? And just for fun, how would you rank him against another interesting bat first minor leaguer in Dodgers Miguel Vargas?

 

I dont really care about minor league depth because those situations work themselves out, if he hits well up the ladder he'll play somewhere, but Nunez is no better than the third best Corner infielder in their system with Gorman and Montero.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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On 11/19/2018 at 3:20 PM, lobsterback said:

 

Man I created quite a stir with my mention of Golden, but I think we are all on the same page here. There are definitely 400 prospects I'd rather have, likely more. Looking at James Anderson's ranks at Rotowire I selected Golden over Jack Herman (314), Luis Madero (326), Jamie Westbrook (364) but otherwise his top 400 was pretty well picked over. In deep leagues like mine (1440 minor leaguers owned) guys like Golden are worth picking up, and I thought worth a tout in this thread.

That's great tho we all have different opinions. The whole discussion is well done , interesting,  and different.  I doubt anyone here takes criticism or disagreement too personally, but who knows.

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On 11/27/2018 at 10:40 AM, brockpapersizer said:

I'm not sure how I feel about Nunez. Fangraphs was super low on him. Think they had him in the 20s for the Cardinals?  Most analysts seem to think his DSL numbers are pretty pointless, as impressive as the are. I'm torn. I mean even at a poop league he still did it as a 17 year old.

 

If you managed to pick him up for free during the season last year in a deepish minors league, I'm all for it.  He's definitely one of the 400 best prospects to own, even if its a helluva gamble.  Might even be in the top 300 or 250 (or even better to some)

 

The real interesting is where you would rank him as a fantasy asset in first year player drafts? And just for fun, how would you rank him against another interesting bat first minor leaguer in Dodgers Miguel Vargas?

 

I dont really care about minor league depth because those situations work themselves out, if he hits well up the ladder he'll play somewhere, but Nunez is no better than the third best Corner infielder in their system with Gorman and Montero.

I lean more on Fangraphs sortable scouting grades than the FV grade for fantasy. Hes a limited defensively and doesnt have much growth projection and really far away. 

 

He may be in the 20s for cardnials prospects but they grade him top 5 in terms of power and they admit its very diffcult to give him concrete hit tool projections right now.

Edited by Slatykamora
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5 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

I lean more on Fangraphs sortable scouting grades than the FV grade for fantasy. Hes a limited defensively and doesnt have much growth projection and really far away. 

 

He may be in the 20s for cardnials prospects but they grade him top 5 in terms of power and they admit its very diffcult to give him concrete hit tool projections right now.

 

Top 5 in terms of power in the cardinals system or the majors or what ?

 

Top 5 power in the system is not crazy interesting to me . 

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60 raw power is nothing special, but they already slapped a 60 IN GAME FV grade. Which only 36 prospects had last year and about half those 36 have 40 FV hit tools. While they gave him 55 FV Hit.

 

They were really Conservative with the other IFAs. They gave none of them higher than 55 in game FV right now and only 4 had a 55 FV hit. The reality is a lot of these IFAs have a ton of projection and Nunez doesn't. So some will eventually blow past him in Hit/Power in a few years.

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