pb187

Trade Zeke + Carson for Gurley?

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Should I trade Zeke + Carson for Gurley? Trade would be effective next week.

 

I'm 7-4 in 3rd place in a 12 team league.


Start 1qb, 2rb, 3Wr, 1te, 2flex, 1td
 
QB:  Ben Roethlisberger
RB:  Ezekiel Elliott, Mark Ingram
WR:  Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, Keke Coutee
TE:  Greg Olsen
Flex: Aaron Jones, Chris Carson 
TD:  Denver
 
Bench
QB:  Winston
RB:  Carlos Hyde, Wendell Smallwood
WR:  MVS, Dede Westbrook, Michael Crabtree
TE: Chris Herndon

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Which trade do you like better:

 

1) Zeke + Carson for girkey

 

2) aaron jones + Carson + Diggs for hurley

 

 

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Of course #2 is better. The Gurley owner won't do it of course, but #2 is definitely better. 

 

#1 is close but Carson is just a throw in. I'm a Gurley owner and you would have to throw in somebody else who is better than injury prone Carson.

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I just accepted:

 

aaron jones + Carson + Diggs for Gurley 

 

a lot to give up for Gurley, but I have a lead this week and hopefully will win.

 

heres my new lineup for next week:


Start 1qb, 2rb, 3Wr, 1te, 2flex, 1td
 
QB:  Ben Roethlisberger
RB:  Ezekiel Elliott, Tood Gurley
WR: Courtland Sutton, Keke Coutee, MVS
TE:  Greg Olsen
Flex: Mark Ingram, Dede Westbrook
TD:  Denver
 
Bench
QB:  Winston
RB:  Carlos Hyde, Wendell Smallwood
WR:  Michael Crabtree
TE: Chris Herndon

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I don’t think I would have done it with your team. I love Gurley and your RB’s but your really weak at WR now. 

Sutton has 6 catches in the 2 games without DT and he is your #1. Coutee is hit or miss since Watson isn’t exactly crushing it and 

DeDe isn’t in a great situation either. 

 

On the other hand Aaron Jones has about 60 points in PPR over the last 2 weeks. The packers want to keep him involved. He has some nice upside. Diggs can be a little up and down at times but overall he’s a top 12 WR in PPR (my league). 

 

If You had the depth it would be a different story. 

 

 

Edited by Under500Forever

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I couldn't decline the offer to get Gurley.

 

yeah my WRs are shaky, but the guys I gave up are no guarantees either.

 

i like having Gurley + Zeke going into the final week of the season and playoffs!

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I like getting Gurley here. I think I would have went with the Zeke deal, but either one was fine. Here's my reasoning below.

Not sure if this is PPR or standard, so I'm going to use standard league stats since that what I have in my league. If it was PPR, the only difference is that compared to standard there would have been more value in the Jones/Diggs deal than the Zeke deal. Either way, I think the conclusion is still about the same.

In standard:
Gurley has been averaging around 23 points a game on the season.
Zeke has been averaging around 17 points a game on the season. 
Jones has been averaging around 18 points a game in his last 4 games (12 points on the season). He has been involved a lot more lately, but his production recently might be a tad high. If he averages 100 yards a game and 3 TDs in 4 games, that would be 14.5 points per games.
Carson has been averaging around 13.5 points in the 5 games that he's had more than 14 touches. The other 3 games he played in (including the first two of the season) he had less than 8 touches.
Diggs has been averaging around 12 points a game on the season. That factors in his 3 dud games where he averaged 2.8 points and 6 games where he averaged 16.4 points.

So based on this, my expectation for each guy would be around:
Gurley = 23
Zeke = 17
Jones = 15
Diggs = 13

Carson = 13

This would mean the gap between Gurley and Jones is about 8 points. So in the trade you made, the question is whether you lose more or less than 8 points by replacing Diggs and Carson with lesser guys. This means the replacements (1 WR and 1 Flex) have to give you on average at least 18 points total (or 9 each) to make up for the difference. Your current two replacements as of right now are MVS and Westbrook. Right now, I'm not sure these guys will give you that. However, you can still work with the waiver wire to fill these holes. If 1 RB gets hurt and you're able to scoop up him replacement, I like your odds of being able to get these 18 points. So I like taking this chance.

Had you gone with the Zeke deal, the gap you would have had to make up between Carson and the replacement would have only been 6 points. This means, you would have only had to find 1 guy that can get you at least 7 points. Which of course would have been easier than getting 2 guys to combine for 18. But this does assume my numbers are right. Which I could be completely wrong here. Maybe Zeke goes off and narrows the gap. Maybe Jones doesn't keep producing at a high level. Maybe Diggs has a lot more duds than studs. Who knows. But that's why I would have went with the Zeke deal. Either way, I like getting Gurley here.

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/735195-nfl-startsit-thread-2018-week-12/?do=findComment&comment=8289737

Edited by Idoolittle

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3 hours ago, pb187 said:

I couldn't decline the offer to get Gurley.

 

yeah my WRs are shaky, but the guys I gave up are no guarantees either.

 

i like having Gurley + Zeke going into the final week of the season and playoffs!

 

I hear ya, getting Gurley is big But  your WRs are in really bad shape.  Diggs is the 8th most targeted WR in the NFL this season and he may be a little higher had he not missed a game this season due to injury. As I said earlier, he is a little up and down (4 games with 10 or more receptions but 3 games with 4 or less). If Jones stays involved Like he has been I don’t think he will be a BIG drop off from Gurley. 

 

Either way , I wish you a lot of luck pal. Just throwing in my 2 cents. I would have stuck with Diggs , Jones and Carson since it keeps your team a lot more balanced. 

Hopefully Gurley’s ankle isn't an issue going forward. The bye week should help. 

 

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so your lineup went from Elliot, Diggs, and Aaron Jones to Gurley, MVS, and Dede Westbrook? I would say your team is significantly worse but hopefully works out for you.

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Read that wrong; I probably still wouldn’t have done it but not as bad as my initial reaction.

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