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jfazz23

Ender Inciarte 2019 Outlook

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So 2017 was somewhat of a breakout where he hit 304/350/409 with 11 homeruns and 22 steals to go along with a respectable 93 runs.

Last year he regressed somewhat and slashed 265/325/380 but his power, 10 hrs(ISO increased from .106 to .116) and stole 28 bases to go along with 83 runs.

 

his babip in 2016 and 2017 was 329 and 339 but only 293 in 2018.  Im wondering if he just ran into some bad luck last year and is poised for a career year (age 28) in 2019.  his k% went slightly down (13.1% to 13%)and his walk % (6.8 to 7.4) slightly increased.  his line drive % also slightly increased and he dropped his gb and iffb% a little bit too.  He did start pulling the ball substantially more, from 30.3 to 40.1%.  his soft contact dropped about 1% and his hard contact increased by about 8%.

 

Were his slash line and counting stats the product of some bad luck?  I think adding Donaldson helps his value.  Big Question is where does he hit in the lineup?  i would love if he lead off in front of acuna, freeman and donaldson....also rotochamp has him projected to hit 4th???

 

@taobball - i know you were a fan going into last year, especially in roto, care to shed some light ??

Edited by jfazz23

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I think the addition of Donaldson assures Inciarte is doomed to the 6th or 7th spot in the lineup, thus throwing a real monkey wrench in his fantasy value. If he indeed ends up in the bottom-third of the lineup, his runs scored total is going to decline drastically, and I think his 28 steals last year is his ceiling. I'm passing on Inciarte this season. Below is how I see the Braves lineup in 2019. 

 

1. Acuna

2. Albies

3. Freeman

4. Donaldson

5. Corner Outfielder

6. Inciarte

7. Swanson

8. Catcher

9. Pitcher

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9 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

So 2017 was somewhat of a breakout where he hit 304/350/409 with 11 homeruns and 22 steals to go along with a respectable 93 runs.

Last year he regressed somewhat and slashed 265/325/380 but his power, 10 hrs(ISO increased from .106 to .116) and stole 28 bases to go along with 83 runs.

 

his babip in 2016 and 2017 was 329 and 339 but only 293 in 2018.  Im wondering if he just ran into some bad luck last year and is poised for a career year (age 28) in 2019.  his k% went slightly down (13.1% to 13%)and his walk % (6.8 to 7.4) slightly increased.  his line drive % also slightly increased and he dropped his gb and iffb% a little bit too.  He did start pulling the ball substantially more, from 30.3 to 40.1%.  his soft contact dropped about 1% and his hard contact increased by about 8%.

 

Were his slash line and counting stats the product of some bad luck?  I think adding Donaldson helps his value.  Big Question is where does he hit in the lineup?  i would love if he lead off in front of acuna, freeman and donaldson....also rotochamp has him projected to hit 4th???

 

@taobball - i know you were a fan going into last year, especially in roto, care to shed some light ??

 

He had 23 SB's with 8 CS in the first half with 405 PA's and .241 BA.    13 SB's and 2 CS in April and stopped running at that pace the rest of the year.

He had 254 PA's batting first,  and 257 PA's batting in the sixth and seventh spots.    He slumped in May and June and finished somewhat strong.

 

Doesn't have a lock on the leadoff spot anymore and therefore loses a lot of his fantasy value.  

Wound up with 28 SB's with 14 CS last year which doesn't bode well either.

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42 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

He had 23 SB's with 8 CS in the first half with 405 PA's and .241 BA.    13 SB's and 2 CS in April and stopped running at that pace the rest of the year.

He had 254 PA's batting first,  and 257 PA's batting in the sixth and seventh spots.    He slumped in May and June and finished somewhat strong.

 

Doesn't have a lock on the leadoff spot anymore and therefore loses a lot of his fantasy value.  

Wound up with 28 SB's with 14 CS last year which doesn't bode well either.

 

any chance a nagging injury was involved?

 

how do you feel about him vs Nimmo?

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If Inciarte was the leadoff guy,  I might expect a bit of a bounce back season from the .265,   but the SB's will be down based on the CS numbers I think.

 

As for Nimmo,  I would wait to see where he winds up.   

The new GM for the Mets looks like he might be wheeling and dealing during the winter meetings trying to shake things up a bit.

It's hard not to like what Nimmo did last year and he turns 26 before the upcoming season.

 

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Everything I've seen thus far has Inciarte leading off. Snitker likes Acuna's ability to drive in runs and is likely to try him out in the cleanup spot. I do see this as a fluid situation and one that could change throughout the season. That being said, if Inciarte displays his ability to get on base like he did during the early part of last year and in 2017 he should stay there. What will be interesting is how Snitker adjusts if Acuna doesn't hit well out of the 4 spot as he was most productive hitting leadoff last year. Here's how roster resource has it projected as of now. 

 

Inciarte

Donaldson

Freeman

Acuna 

Markakis

McCann/Flowers

Albie's

Swanson

P

 

I really like Ender this year and think his 144 ADP provides some very good value. If he stays leading off I don't see how he doesn't score 100 runs and steal 20-30 bases. With a good average a OBP. 

 

Edit: FWIW his current projection is 80/11/54/23 with a .276/.331 average/OBP. I find those projections very low in the runs scored department. I also feel his OBP will be closer to .350. 

Edited by BostonCajun

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He stopped stealing bases in the second half last year. 5 for 11 after the All Star break.  Somewhat concerning, unless he was injured and playing through it.

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25 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

He stopped stealing bases in the second half last year. 5 for 11 after the All Star break.  Somewhat concerning, unless he was injured and playing through it.

 

Maybe he just got on an incredible run early on and this is his norm. He was never an elite base stealer before last year. I'm not sure we can count on 25+ SB. I'd be comfortable projecting him in the 15-20 SB range.

 

Lineups are malleable, the chances he's in the leadoff spot all year are pretty low. Albies / Acuna / Markakis likely all will get some time there as well. If being the leadoff hitter boosts his value I will not be getting any shares, its impossible to predict how the lineup will shake out for the season.

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4 hours ago, murraygd13 said:

He stopped stealing bases in the second half last year. 5 for 11 after the All Star break.  Somewhat concerning, unless he was injured and playing through it.

 

Most of the 2nd half he was down in the bottom 3rd of the lineup. He stopped stealing as often as soon as he was removed from the leadoff spot. 

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3 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Maybe he just got on an incredible run early on and this is his norm. He was never an elite base stealer before last year. I'm not sure we can count on 25+ SB. I'd be comfortable projecting him in the 15-20 SB range.

 

Lineups are malleable, the chances he's in the leadoff spot all year are pretty low. Albies / Acuna / Markakis likely all will get some time there as well. If being the leadoff hitter boosts his value I will not be getting any shares, its impossible to predict how the lineup will shake out for the season.

 

I don't think Albies will leadoff much if at all. His plate discipline issues really reared their head in the 2nd half of the season.  Plus he really had some issues hitting right handers last year. I think he hits toward the bottom.

 

Markakis would be a better fit for that spot than Albies because of his OBP skills but I'd honestly be surprised to see that. While he doesn't offer much in terms of HR power he did finish in the top 10 in doubles among all qualified hitters each of the last  two seasons. So while he doesn't seem like a prototypical run producer because he's not providing 20+ hr consistently he actually is a very good guy to bat 5th behind your cleanup guy. 

 

I believe Inciarte will leadoff to begin the year and if he does well getting on base will stay in that spot. If he does not provide a consistent source of OBP skills then I believe Snitker will move Acuna back there where he thrived last season.  

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It's possible that Acuna leads off again this year, according to Snitker. In yesterday's lineup, which did not include Inciarte, Acuna led off.I Just updating something we're all keeping an eye on for Ender. 

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