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Topgun

Jose Altuve 2019 Outlook

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I have concerns going forward, sub-par 2018 due to injury, at age 28, have we already seen his best years? Is

this stat line possible in 2019 , (110 R, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB, .315 BA) ? 

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The market usually way overreacts to down years. Altuve is just 1 season removed from producing insane 5 category value. If he falls to the 2nd round i'm taking a flier.

 

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Had Altuve put up his 2018 numbers completely healthy I'd be concerned. The knee injury clearly hampered him for at least half the season. Rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated, IMO, and there could actually be some ADP value this season if he reports to camp healthy.

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16 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

The market usually way overreacts to down years. Altuve is just 1 season removed from producing insane 5 category value. If he falls to the 2nd round i'm taking a flier.

 

 

These are my thoughts too

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5 hours ago, TribeFoo said:

Had Altuve put up his 2018 numbers completely healthy I'd be concerned. The knee injury clearly hampered him for at least half the season. Rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated, IMO, and there could actually be some ADP value this season if he reports to camp healthy.

 

Well said.  I wouldn't be overly concerned about Altuve and think if he's fully healthy he still will be capable of putting up elite numbers for at least a couple of more seasons.  Because of his size and position people will always be quick to write him off at the first sign of trouble. He may never challenge 30 hr's again but I think the low 20's is still realistic and being fully recovered from the knee injury will give us the sb totals we are more accustomed to seeing from him.  That could change a few years down the road as speed is usually the first to go, but we aren't quite there yet.  

 

Like tribe said if he had that kind of season when fully healthy there would be cause for concern, but as long has he is fully healthy I would expect him to once again be the top 2b.  

 

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On ‎12‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 11:54 AM, 2Balls1Bat said:

 

Well said.  I wouldn't be overly concerned about Altuve and think if he's fully healthy he still will be capable of putting up elite numbers for at least a couple of more seasons.  Because of his size and position people will always be quick to write him off at the first sign of trouble. He may never challenge 30 hr's again but I think the low 20's is still realistic and being fully recovered from the knee injury will give us the sb totals we are more accustomed to seeing from him.  That could change a few years down the road as speed is usually the first to go, but we aren't quite there yet.  

 

Like tribe said if he had that kind of season when fully healthy there would be cause for concern, but as long has he is fully healthy I would expect him to once again be the top 2b.  

 

he never did and has only 2 years of 20+ hrs

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

he never did and has only 2 years of 20+ hrs

 I never said he hit 30 hr's.  Challenging 30 hr's is not the same as hitting 30hr's.  He hit 24 hr's in back to back years which is close to 30 hence why I used the word challenging.  If I said he'd never hit 30 hr's again then your statement in response to mine would be warranted.  But perhaps I was generous by saying challenging 30. realistically high teens low 20's is a reasonable expectation.

Edited by 2Balls1Bat

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10 minutes ago, 2Balls1Bat said:

 I never said he hit 30 hr's.  Challenging 30 hr's is not the same as hitting 30hr's.  He hit 24 hr's in back to back years which is close to 30 hence why I used the word challenging.  If I said he'd never hit 30 hr's again then your statement in response to mine would be warranted.  But perhaps I was generous by saying challenging 30. realistically high teens low 20's is a reasonable expectation.

24 hrs isn't challenging 30 hrs 

anyways he will be a steal in the 2nd rd if he bounce back 

there a wide range of outcomes as he could go 15/20 or 22-25/30

neither would surprise me

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11 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

24 hrs isn't challenging 30 hrs 

anyways he will be a steal in the 2nd rd if he bounce back 

there a wide range of outcomes as he could go 15/20 or 22-25/30

neither would surprise me

Well yes, I suppose if you look at the overall numbers that is not challenging 30 and as I said in my last comment perhaps I was being a bit generous with that statement. However, in each of those seasons he hit 24 hr's he faded a bit down the stretch and hit only 2 and 3 hr's in the month of September respectively which both were his lowest hr total of any month those years.  Either way it's just nit picking.

 

As long as the knee is fully healthy coming into the season I would expect his sb totals to go back where we are used to seeing from him.  i do agree that if he makes to the 2nd round he is a potential steal.  However, I would be very surprised though if he only goes 15/20 in a full season when fully healthy.  He is much better than that and still is in his prime.

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Definitely targeting him in redrafts. Classic perrenial stud turned bounce back candidate that I like to look for.

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That kneecap made it very hard to run the bases much less steal them.  Given another 155 game healthy season I see another .33x average with 20-22 HR and 30 SB and .850-.860 OPS as a solid betting line.

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Given that their current and projected ADPs are similar, 2019 Altuve is gonna make 2019 Baez owners look really, really, really, really, stupid.  Like, embarrassingly dumb.

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1 hour ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Given that their current and projected ADPs are similar, 2019 Altuve is gonna make 2019 Baez owners look really, really, really, really, stupid.  Like, embarrassingly dumb.

And you were motivated to share this with us for what reason ?

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40 minutes ago, Topgun said:

And you were motivated to share this with us for what reason ?

 

My bad.  This is an Altuve outlook thread and I figured that comparing him to the other top pick at his position would be relevant.  Given that Baez is coming off an extreme breakout season and has seen his ADP skyrocket, while Altuve suffered an injury-marred season (which still ended up serviceable) and has seen his ADP fall, it makes sense to look at them together. 

 

Over eight years of MLB service, Altuve's 162 game average is: 649 AB, 93 R, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 36 SB, .316 AVG, .365 OBP.  It's worth noting that his power didn't show up until his fifth year (2015), and seems to plateau out at just over 20 HRs.  So if we take his average and account for the power uptick he's looking at: 100 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 35 SB, .315+ AVG, .375+ OBP.  That's all but injury-related money in the bank.

 

Baez, on the other hand, has a shorter MLB history and less proven track record.  His 162 game average is: 549 AB, 78 R, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 15 SB, .267 AVG, .309 OBP.  I note first that he has 100 less avg ABs, so his counting stats will likely be higher.  Let's give him 100 R, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 20 SB.  Excellent numbers indeed, but then we look at the fact that he was caught stealing nearly 50% of the time last year.  Then we look at the the pitiful OBP resulting from a freakishly bad K/BB (29/167).  Then we note that these pitfalls are a part of his style as a player, not items he's looking to correct.  So I think this may be a breakout but it may also be a fluke.  He may post a more reasonable 90 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 15 SB, .270/.310.  Those are solid numbers to be sure--especially in a standard non-OBP league--but nowhere near Altuve territory. 

 

The fact that I didn't do any of that in my post is noted. ;)

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I think it's very possible he steals a lot less this year. With the team not running much in general and Altuve being a year older, I think he's not a lock for 30+ stolen bases. 

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