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Jose Altuve 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Heeeeeee's back (from the IL)...though after seeing him run on his rehab, I am concerned his knee is not good to go.

If his knee wasn’t good to go he wouldn’t be out here. Astros have been on the side of caution with him since they are winning anyways. If he’s back that means he’s ready to go

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37 minutes ago, terminator10 said:

If his knee wasn’t good to go he wouldn’t be out here. Astros have been on the side of caution with him since they are winning anyways. If he’s back that means he’s ready to go

 

Hope you're right. Seems like he went from "feels pretty good" to "best it's felt in a long time!" quickly.

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I'd take what he's publicly stating about his knee with a grain of salt.  Altuve wants to be in the line up, and ready to smash in the playoffs so they can get another World Series.  He's gonna down play his knee.

 

My goal is to cross my fingers that he starts out slow, like a bad 2 weeks, and then send trade offers to pry him loose.  I'm not even gonna worry about his obvious drop in steals, but I do think he can get his knee feeling 90%, and then bat .320 ROS.  His season total for HR's should be around 25, too.  Anyone who drafted him will be disappointed, even at the discount most owners got him for to start the season, BUT anyone who did not draft the guy can use this to their advantage.

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The thing with lower body injuries is they're very difficult to hide. We'll know real quickly if Altuve is loafing around and trying to suppress a nagging injury.

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3 hits vs. Yanks, but 3 infield hits. One a slow roller to the 3rd base bag on an ooglay swing. One legit sharp grounder off the pitcher. Lastly a bunt single. His 4 hits since return have all been grounders. I don't believe he's hit a line drive yet.

Hopefully he gets better over the summer as he gets stronger.
A small dude like him needs to have strong legs and drive off of to hit for power.

Imagine him 5 homers and like 2 steals the rest of the way... good god. Better off staying on the DL.

 

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8 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

3 hits vs. Yanks, but 3 infield hits. One a slow roller to the 3rd base bag on an ooglay swing. One legit sharp grounder off the pitcher. Lastly a bunt single. His 4 hits since return have all been grounders. I don't believe he's hit a line drive yet.

Hopefully he gets better over the summer as he gets stronger.
A small dude like him needs to have strong legs and drive off of to hit for power.

Imagine him 5 homers and like 2 steals the rest of the way... good god. Better off staying on the DL.

 

 

He's going to have some rust with the bat. I expected him to take a week or two to get his timing back. BUT seeing him run today gave me real confidence that the steals will come back. He looks physically really good. 

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31 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

3 hits vs. Yanks, but 3 infield hits. One a slow roller to the 3rd base bag on an ooglay swing. One legit sharp grounder off the pitcher. Lastly a bunt single. His 4 hits since return have all been grounders. I don't believe he's hit a line drive yet.

Hopefully he gets better over the summer as he gets stronger.
A small dude like him needs to have strong legs and drive off of to hit for power.

Imagine him 5 homers and like 2 steals the rest of the way... good god. Better off staying on the DL.

 

At least the fact that they were infield singles means he’s running fast ?

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53 minutes ago, terminator10 said:

At least the fact that they were infield singles means he’s running fast ?

He was running really well from what I saw. Very fast. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, papasmurf said:

3 hits vs. Yanks, but 3 infield hits. One a slow roller to the 3rd base bag on an ooglay swing. One legit sharp grounder off the pitcher. Lastly a bunt single. His 4 hits since return have all been grounders. I don't believe he's hit a line drive yet.

Hopefully he gets better over the summer as he gets stronger.
A small dude like him needs to have strong legs and drive off of to hit for power.

Imagine him 5 homers and like 2 steals the rest of the way... good god. Better off staying on the DL.

 

 

I am not counting on a single steal the rest of the year - he will get some I imagine but I won't compute that into my lineup needs on a week to week basis.  However, what I still believe in though is the batting skills to remain elite, including the power to keep him as a great fantasy asset.  That is assuming he is healthy enough to be himself.  If he's only got 5 homers and a couple of steals in him then he's droppable in a lot of 12 team leagues (say those without MI eligibility).  That would be a Pedroia like fall if that happened which I think is a few years early. But that's the guy I think of if he doesn't get back...

Edited by knuckleheads

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7 hours ago, DannyMcPot said:

He was running really well from what I saw. Very fast. 

Yeah I did not think he was really healthy after watching him gimp around on rehab...I was wrong, his sprint speed last night was very evident and a saw the tweet that it also timed out in elite range last night. I really don't care if he decides not to swipe another bag, just stay healthy and rake.

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Where do you guys rank him for 2020? Does he make your top 75?

It looks like at least for next year even 15 steals would be an upset. Strong lineup, coming off 2 straight injury impacted seasons. Getting older. Easy to get bumps and bruises playing 2b, etc. Likely won't be running much, if at all.

At the plate, no longer hitting for average like he used to. Dude used to get lots of IF hits. Losing a step is gonna cost him a few hits. 

Let's say 90 .290 18 75 7 

Keeper material?

 

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This will be my last season with him, and I've had him since his age-23 season. The lower body injuries have piled up the past few years and it's showing. I think he'll still go inside the top-75 next year just because 2B lacks depth and he's still a name. However, I could easily envision a scenario where he's really only a 2-cat contributor. Could he rebound and post a great season in 2020? I suppose, but I'm not seeing much reason to think so. We'll see how the second half of this year plays out.

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7 hours ago, papasmurf said:

Where do you guys rank him for 2020? Does he make your top 75?

It looks like at least for next year even 15 steals would be an upset. Strong lineup, coming off 2 straight injury impacted seasons. Getting older. Easy to get bumps and bruises playing 2b, etc. Likely won't be running much, if at all.

At the plate, no longer hitting for average like he used to. Dude used to get lots of IF hits. Losing a step is gonna cost him a few hits. 

Let's say 90 .290 18 75 7 

Keeper material?

 

 

I think I'd still draft him within the top 75 but barring an insane second half he's probably not a first or second rounder anymore, and I probably wouldn't target him there even if that's where he ends up going. In fact, I have him in a dynasty where I'm hoping he does well enough rest of season so I can cash out and get something worthwhile, as I have Chavis as well. 

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Outside the top 150 for me. No speed or power and cannot hit for a high average anymore. He will lose his spot in the batting order soon as he is an easy out now...

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I would love to take him in the 7th-8th round next season but there will be an owner in every league that will take the risk that he will be 100% healthy next season and take him in ~5th round which is too rich for me.

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He really does look like a shell of his former self. Sad to see. He'll still hold some value as long as he hits 2nd in that lineup but when/if he gets dropped things could get really ugly. I wouldn't touch him in the top 100 next year unless I see something dramatically different from him in the 2H. 

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Posted (edited)

To be fair, the entire Astros lineup is mired in a slump right now (I know, he wasn't playing well before that). While Altuve isn't probably hitting his 2017 highs, he could still be a valuable player when the Astros actually decide to start scoring again.

Edited by Bregatron

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Four hits last night but twas one ugly four hit game.

Broken bat bloop

Chased a slider off the plate and fliked it to left.

A reply of hit #2

Groundball into RF

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At least he stole a base, I'm not going to complain too much for a 4/5 2 runs/1rbi and SB night....

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Anyone have a theory as to his unusual struggles against RHP this season? 

2019:
.348/.392/.739 vs LHP
.233/.305/.371 vs RHP

Smallish sample due to the time missed, but pretty extreme splits there.  In his career pre 2016, he had distinctly better splits vs lefties.  in 2016-18 something changed and he killed RHP.

Recent seasons vs RHP:
2018: .863 OPS
2017: .952 OPS
2016: .942 OPS

Can a knee injury affect how he handles RHP vs LHP?

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I cashed out in a dynasty in which I now have Hiura. If the OBP is not in the 375-390 range and over 20 steals, there's not enough total meat on the bones to justify the loft price tag. 

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1 minute ago, cad300 said:

I cashed out in a dynasty in which I now have Hiura. If the OBP is not in the 375-390 range and over 20 steals, there's not enough total meat on the bones to justify the loft price tag. 

Yeah, he's been my franchise since 2014 but I'm also done after this season. If he tanks in the second half I don't think it's a given he's a top-of-the-order bat next year, either.

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Dude has a pulse. Doing well, especially lately.

Dammit now might have to keep him for next year.

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