cdd10

Jeff McNeil 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, cdd10 said:

Cano trade sap his value? 

Probably moves over to 3B. Worse case scenario is super-utility

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really liked McNeil going into this season.  Now, I'm not sure.  I guess we will see what other moves the team makes over the off-season and how the lineup starts to look in the spring.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he may end up in another deal - but if he stays he's boxed out of 2b....move to 3b but Frazier not going anywhere so likely a platoon/super utility as said above....went from a sleeper Id pay extra for to a $1/$2 flyer at end of draft unless something changes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah it's concerning.

 

He moves to 3B, Frazier to 1B, what happens when Alonso gets the call? Same if he plays first? 

 

I'll keep him as a cheap bench stash, but went from being plugged in as my great value 2b to a guy that might only help a couple days a week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe he gets moved maybe he doesn't but Like that guy on Jurassic Park said "Life  Talent finds a way" The playing time uncertainty could create a nice buying opportunity. FWIW I got him at pick 248 in our last mock. Not much risk taking him there I think. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who knows; perhaps BVW has a deal lined up for an OF and McNeil is on the move. Not what I want to see happe, but they sure have a lot of guys who play the same positions now...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and just saw this f/ a beat writer:

 

"Mets also are willing to use McNeil in the outfield so there could be at-bats there if Alonso thrives and Mets use Frazier/Lowrie as the infielders."

 

and

 

"Mets are open to the idea of playing Cano at 1b"

Edited by WTP333

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WTP333 said:

and just saw this f/ a beat writer:

 

"Mets also are willing to use McNeil in the outfield so there could be at-bats there if Alonso thrives and Mets use Frazier/Lowrie as the infielders."

 

It should say "Mets are willing to play McNeil at 2B where he was very impressive last season". Why would they play him over Conforto, Nimmo and two elite defensive CF in Lagares/Broxton? I don't see that happening. 

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, WTP333 said:

and just saw this f/ a beat writer:

 

"Mets also are willing to use McNeil in the outfield so there could be at-bats there if Alonso thrives and Mets use Frazier/Lowrie as the infielders."

 

and

 

"Mets are open to the idea of playing Cano at 1b"

 

Yeah, all that's great. But dude should just have a position and be playing. And 25 y.o.'s who hit .320+ shouldn't be replaced by 35 YOs. 

 

I apologize to Mets fans. And ofc maybe I'm wrong. But IMO, this offseason has just been a GROSS misuse of resources. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dude has to be getting traded. Doesn't make sense otherwise. 

 

Wonder if we will see them try to pull off a deal for a guy like Haniger. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

Dude has to be getting traded. Doesn't make sense otherwise. 

 

Wonder if we will see them try to pull off a deal for a guy like Haniger. 

 

Haniger's reported price is through the roof. 

 

I think McNeil to the Brewers for an arm makes sense. I don't know how much the Brewers like him, but the need Infielders, and they have less than no money so-to-speak, as Grandal puts them at record numbers. I hate it as a Cubs fan, but love it as a fit. 

 

If McNeil and Cano get the same PT, I bet McNeil ends up the more valuable player. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Haniger's reported price is through the roof. 

 

I think McNeil to the Brewers for an arm makes sense. I don't know how much the Brewers like him, but the need Infielders, and they have less than no money so-to-speak, as Grandal puts them at record numbers. I hate it as a Cubs fan, but love it as a fit. 

 

If McNeil and Cano get the same PT, I bet McNeil ends up the more valuable player. 

 

 

I know it is but if they are starting with semi-proven mlb ready young guys with more control it could make sense. Mcneil, Dunn, dom Smith or something. Idk, just spitballing. 

 

McNeil to the Brewers makes great sense. I really like burnes, don't see the crew moving him but i can see Peralta or woodruff (among other MiLB guys). You may be on to something here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

I know it is but if they are starting with semi-proven mlb ready young guys with more control it could make sense. Mcneil, Dunn, dom Smith or something. Idk, just spitballing. 

 

McNeil to the Brewers makes great sense. I really like burnes, don't see the crew moving him but i can see Peralta or woodruff (among other MiLB guys). You may be on to something here. 

Dunn went to Seattle in the Cano/Diaz trade

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, WTP333 said:

Dunn went to Seattle in the Cano/Diaz trade

 

Doh. That's right. Regardless, something along those lines. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit of an overreaction on Jeff McNeil and his 225 professional at bats. 

Sure he was great last year and has a promising future but he's only 26 and is a nice guy to have on the bench with his versatility.

 

We knew he wasn't playing 2B once Cano was acquired.  People assumed he would get at bats at 3B because of Frazier's struggles last year.

Now I would think Lowrie will get the good side of a platoon at 3B against RH'ers if Todd Frazier remains on the team.

Lowrie could get some AB's at 2B and Cano & Frazier can play some 1B if Alonso struggles a bit against RH'ers which is possible.

 

McNeil looks to be getting AB's in the OF with Nimmo most likely getting a lot of AB's in CF with Lagares as a defensive replacement late in games.

I think McNeil can wind up with 300 AB's even if there are no other big injuries which isn't bad.   If he continues to rake,  the manager can always adjust.

Cespedes might not return this year which is what I would take from the Lowrie signing which was a very nice acquisition and improves this years team.

Edited by Brooklyn Dude
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

A bit of an overreaction on Jeff McNeil and his 225 professional at bats. 

Sure he was great last year and has a promising future but he's only 26 and is a nice guy to have on the bench with his versatility.

 

We knew he wasn't playing 2B once Cano was acquired.  People assumed he would get at bats at 3B because of Frazier's struggles last year.

Now I would think Lowrie will get the good side of a platoon at 3B against RH'ers if Todd Frazier remains on the team.

Lowrie could get some AB's at 2B and Cano & Frazier can play some 1B if Alonso struggles a bit against RH'ers which is possible.

 

McNeil looks to be getting AB's in the OF with Nimmo most likely getting a lot of AB's in CF with Lagares as a defensive replacement late in games.

I think McNeil can wind up with 300 AB's even if there are no other big injuries which isn't bad.   If he continues to rake,  the manager can always adjust.

Cespedes might not return this year which is what I would take from the Lowrie signing which was a very nice acquisition and improves this years team.

 

I think the path is in the OF with a handful of starts in the IF as a super utility guy giving folks days off.  My guess, at least until Alonso is ready, is that Cano or Frazier plays first, Cano or Lowrie plays 2B, Rosario at SS, Lowrie or Frazier at 3B.  They have JD Davis that they acquired from Houston at 3B or OF.  McNeil can play 2B, 3B, or OF.  I know folks around here love Keon Broxton, but he's never really stuck around in the bigs.  Perhaps that's opportunity, or perhaps he's not that good.

 

Conforto plays one corner (or fakes it in CF), Nimmo plays the other or CF, and Broxton, McNeil, Davis, etc. duke it out for the other spot.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, JFS179 said:

 

I think the path is in the OF with a handful of starts in the IF as a super utility guy giving folks days off.  My guess, at least until Alonso is ready, is that Cano or Frazier plays first, Cano or Lowrie plays 2B, Rosario at SS, Lowrie or Frazier at 3B.  They have JD Davis that they acquired from Houston at 3B or OF.  McNeil can play 2B, 3B, or OF.  I know folks around here love Keon Broxton, but he's never really stuck around in the bigs.  Perhaps that's opportunity, or perhaps he's not that good.

 

Conforto plays one corner (or fakes it in CF), Nimmo plays the other or CF, and Broxton, McNeil, Davis, etc. duke it out for the other spot.

 

I think McNeil could probably platoon at 1B with Alonso if he struggles because I don't think Dom Smith has shown enough.

I think Broxton and JD Davis start off in the minors.  Both have potential but don't seem to fit at the moment.  Nice depth at AAA.

Broxton has no role on this team if Lagares is on the team.  And JD clearly needs AB's rather than sit on the bench.

 

I think Nimmo becomes the guy to play CF even though he isn't great out there,  he isn't a butcher either.

If not,  Lagares could get more AB's in CF where we know how good he is out there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

A bit of an overreaction on Jeff McNeil and his 225 professional at bats. 

 

Any particular reason why? 

 

McNeil had a phenomenal 2018. If we’re using the term “professional” it was a lot more than 225, as he hit above .360 in AAA. 

 

He was a phenom who to me showcased a potential 70-80 grade hit tool and could potentially profile as an absolutely elite hitter. The idea that Jed Lowrie and Cano at 35 should replace that is a joke. An absolute joke. 

 

Maybe it’s an overreaction... but I also believe McNeil gave us a lot of evidence suggesting he could be a .320+ hitter, and his 2.7 WAR was incredible in a third of a season. There’s no reason to not just ride that out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Any particular reason why? 

 

McNeil had a phenomenal 2018. If we’re using the term “professional” it was a lot more than 225, as he hit above .360 in AAA. 

 

He was a phenom who to me showcased a potential 70-80 grade hit tool and could potentially profile as an absolutely elite hitter. The idea that Jed Lowrie and Cano at 35 should replace that is a joke. An absolute joke. 

 

Maybe it’s an overreaction... but I also believe McNeil gave us a lot of evidence suggesting he could be a .320+ hitter, and his 2.7 WAR was incredible in a third of a season. There’s no reason to not just ride that out. 

 

There is no reason if Jeff McNeil hits that he won't get more AB's,  it just won't be at 2B. 

 

McNeil on a radio interview said he played OF in college and feels comfortable out there.  He did say he thought 2B was his best position.

But he's clearly athletic and versatility at the major league level can only enhance his value going forward. 

He's only 26 and with the the older players on the roster,  there's likely to be more guys visiting the DL like usual for the Mets.

 

McNeil still has a bright future possibly as an elite bat but probably as a really nice bat. 

I don't see why he can't carve out some playing time with a chance for more if those 225 major league AB's weren't just a small sample size.

 

I was holding out hope for AJ Pollock for CF but he probably wanted more money than the Mets felt comfortable spending.

Lowrie on a 2 year deal for $20m is a nice signing and probably means the Mets don't have to count on Cespedes this year.

A little competition for playing time is a nice thing for any team and the Mets haven't had to worry about that for a long time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

There is no reason if Jeff McNeil hits that he won't get more AB's,  it just won't be at 2B. 

 

McNeil on a radio interview said he played OF in college and feels comfortable out there.  He did say he thought 2B was his best position.

But he's clearly athletic and versatility at the major league level can only enhance his value going forward. 

He's only 26 and with the the older players on the roster,  there's likely to be more guys visiting the DL like usual for the Mets.

 

McNeil still has a bright future possibly as an elite bat but probably as a really nice bat. 

I don't see why he can't carve out some playing time with a chance for more if those 225 major league AB's weren't just a small sample size.

 

I was holding out hope for AJ Pollock for CF but he probably wanted more money than the Mets felt comfortable spending.

Lowrie on a 2 year deal for $20m is a nice signing and probably means the Mets don't have to count on Cespedes this year.

A little competition for playing time is a nice thing for any team and the Mets haven't had to worry about that for a long time.

 

Your points don't make a whole lot of sense to me. I don't see how you can say a player has a bright future possibly as an elite bat at 26 YO and then justify this allocations of funds, trading away a first rounder, and paying a ton of money for a Closer and two-35+ YO Middle Infielders. 

 

Pollock is available. Many bullpen arms are available. 

 

The Mets had to worry about it last year, when they continued to make ignorant decisions like benching Nimmo and demoting him to AAA during his hottest stretch of the season. 

 

We can say all we want about "earning" PT, but you have to have it to get it, and if you don't have a ton of it I don't know how you're supposed to display yourself so much. Plus I don't find in general a utility role is the right role to improve a player in. He's going to have far less consistency than a normal baseball player in a sport that does thrive a lot on consistency. 

 

The "earning" playing time happened. It happened last year, when McNeil was a ******** stud. He's probably better than Cano. He's probably better than Lowrie. And all he needs to do is be leading-off everyday to prove it, but instead we'll get to see the over 35 Infield club next year. 

 

I still haven't seen any reason why people are actually overreacting to McNeil either. You made that claim, but have done absolutely nothing to convince me that this is NOT a player who should be seen as someone who could compete for a batting title next year. Can you give me any reason? You claim others are overreacting, but everyone who claims that seems to have almost a purely "Well I just odn't believe it," attitude, which is a terrible attitude to have. 

 

McNeil. Looked. ********. Phenomenal. He looked like a hit machine, a batting title specialist, and someone who could realistically put up 5-6 WAR. If I were the Mets, I would've acquired Adenys Hechavarria or Freddy Galvis, and planned on McNeil as my everyday 2B. Then I would've used the assload of funds they've used to acquire dinosaurs and I would use it wisely. Either on Pollock or by building a bullpen. 

 

The ONLY reason I can see that Lowrie and Cano are on the Mets is that Brodie Van Wagenen is more concerned with bringing in his former clients and friends to his new organization than he is with winning. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

via off-season

7 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Exit Velo isn't everything, nor the only thing, and shouldn't be the only negative of a player. 

 

McNeil popped up a little bit for my taste, but for the most part profiled, to me, as a hitter who could profile for an above average BABIP. He's fast, hits a good number of Line Drives, and seems to see all fields well. 

 

Steamer projections I never care for, but I especially dont' think they'll be well represented for a 26 YO. I can't imagine the steamer projection for Mitch Haniger last year came close to his 2018 Results.

 

I don't understand the "is awesome, but would be hard for anyone to maintain" logic whatsoever. This seems to be the same logic that the Mets are going with. "Well as a 26 YO, we didn't expect McNeil to do THAT, so because we didn't expect it, it was a fluke." I think my entire point here is that Jeff McNeil is NOT  some super stud hitter yet, but based on what he did in 2018 why the f--- wouldn't you give him a shot to prove he ISN'T that guy.

 

This isn't Avisail Garcia or Danny Santana having a magical .400+ BABIP. This is a player who had an INSANE year last year. I DO NOT make a big deal about minor league numbers as a whole, but I also say the numbers I follow are the extremes. McNeil's AA and AAA numbers were EXTREME last year. He hit .327 in AA and an incredible .368 in AAA. This dude was on another planet, not just for his 63 Games in the MLB, but for all 151 between AA-MLB. 

 

Let me throw some advanced numbers at you too.

I consider it concerning when a player whiffs at more than 10% of a Fastball. Low numbers (under 5%) are rare, but equally as impressive the other way.

 

McNeil, according to Brooksbaseballl, whiffed at ONE sinker out of the 114 he saw. That's a 0.88% Whiff%. That's ******** insane.

 

McNeil SLG'd .581 v. Change-Ups, .581 v. Sliders, and .722 v. Curves. But more  impressive to me than those lofty numbers, in the 80 ABs that McNeil had that ended in an off-speed/breaking pitch, he had 29 Hits, 5 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 3 HRs, and 8 Strikeouts. For those keeping score at home, that means when Jeff McNeil had an AB end in a Change-Up, Slider, or Curveball, it was more likely he had an XBH (10 of those) than a Strikeout (8). That's ******** insane. 

 

Jeff McNeil's hit tool last year, to use it for a third time, was ******** insane. 

 

I am by no means comparing him to one of the greatest hit tools in the history of baseball, but I do not even use the term "Gwynn-esque" lightly. McNeil did some pretty insane "perennial .330 hitter" s--- last year.

 

And to be clear once more, it is very different to define what someone does in 2018 and to expect them to repeat it in 2019. I don't know if the same McNeil that decimated AA, AAA, and the MLB last year shows back up in 2019... but as a free player WHY WOULD YOU NOT WANT TO FIND OUT?!?!?!?!??!?!?!? If McNeil truly has a 70-80 Grade Hit Tool now, and if he really can sustain a .320-.330 BA, he could be a ridiculous organizational steal. The fact that an "empty average," which does not even hold true due to his solid ISO, keeps them bringing in guys over the age of 35 is, frankly, ridiculous. 

 

You want to say "Well what's so special about..." What's so Special about Robinson Cano? 

 

Let's make something clear here: we're talking about NOW Cano. Not prime. 

 

He has been with the Seattle Mariners organization since 2014 (5 Years). In those FIVE YEARS, his second best stat line is either the .314/14 line he put up in his first Seattle year, or the .280/23 he put up in 2017. He is now 36. What makes Cano great? Why does this make any sense as a player to acquire?

 

Do I think Cano's capable of another great season? Sure, by the definition of "capable." But I don't think it's particularly likely that Cano is going to make a league switch this year at 36 and destroy the NL East. A reasonable projection for him is something like .285/20+. Is that, at 36, millions of dollars, and a 2018 top 10-15 pick, worth it? I don't think so, and I think it makes WAY  more sense to just SEE if McNeil can be special. 

 

Again. That's the WHOLE point. Could it be a fluke? Sure. But why the f--- wouldn't you do your due diligence? Why wouldn't you do everything in your power to nurture this and try to make it happen again and have an incredible player for free. I spent all last year defending Nimmo from the beginning of the season, but this dude may be a better lead-off hitter from the jump next year. It just makes no sense to not give him a shot. 

 

Brodie Van Wagenen is a joke. Could I be wrong? Sure. But I see this as gross incompetence. The Orioles did everything right hiring a GM. They went for a guy who came up in the Walt Jocketty family of GM's that now extends from St. Louis to Houston to Milwaukee. The Mets hired a former Agent, who probably knows nothing about player development. They went for an "open market" guy over a guy who actually understood the game of baseball and how it should be handled at a fundamental, organizational level. And they went for a guy who, with NO worry about how it would look publically, immediately made questionable decisions to hire two of his former clients well passed their primes. I could be wrong, and he could be making the right moves, but I truly in my interpretation of events believe that I would be a better GM than this clown. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Your points don't make a whole lot of sense to me. I don't see how you can say a player has a bright future possibly as an elite bat at 26 YO and then justify this allocations of funds, trading away a first rounder, and paying a ton of money for a Closer and two-35+ YO Middle Infielders. 

 

Pollock is available. Many bullpen arms are available. 

 

The Mets had to worry about it last year, when they continued to make ignorant decisions like benching Nimmo and demoting him to AAA during his hottest stretch of the season. 

 

We can say all we want about "earning" PT, but you have to have it to get it, and if you don't have a ton of it I don't know how you're supposed to display yourself so much. Plus I don't find in general a utility role is the right role to improve a player in. He's going to have far less consistency than a normal baseball player in a sport that does thrive a lot on consistency. 

 

The "earning" playing time happened. It happened last year, when McNeil was a ******** stud. He's probably better than Cano. He's probably better than Lowrie. And all he needs to do is be leading-off everyday to prove it, but instead we'll get to see the over 35 Infield club next year. 

 

I still haven't seen any reason why people are actually overreacting to McNeil either. You made that claim, but have done absolutely nothing to convince me that this is NOT a player who should be seen as someone who could compete for a batting title next year. Can you give me any reason? You claim others are overreacting, but everyone who claims that seems to have almost a purely "Well I just odn't believe it," attitude, which is a terrible attitude to have. 

 

McNeil. Looked. ********. Phenomenal. He looked like a hit machine, a batting title specialist, and someone who could realistically put up 5-6 WAR. If I were the Mets, I would've acquired Adenys Hechavarria or Freddy Galvis, and planned on McNeil as my everyday 2B. Then I would've used the assload of funds they've used to acquire dinosaurs and I would use it wisely. Either on Pollock or by building a bullpen. 

 

The ONLY reason I can see that Lowrie and Cano are on the Mets is that Brodie Van Wagenen is more concerned with bringing in his former clients and friends to his new organization than he is with winning. 

 

Look I love Jeff McNeil and if I were making the decisions I would agree with you and play him full time at 2B.

But BVW did the Cano/Diaz deal which while interesting and clearly upgrades the team this year isn't something I would have done.

I could think of different ways to spend the Wilpon's money but there's no guarantee it would be better than what BVW is putting out there this year.

Clearly the Wilpon's have given him a limit to how much money he can spend this year,  which is sad for a big market NYC team,  but another discussion.

 

BVW is filling out the roster the way he thinks will give the team the best chance to compete this year.  Maybe he is delusional but he's trying.

This Mets team will compete with the talent assembled but I don't think it will be enough to beat the Nats whose starting pitching is also excellent.

 

McNeil was a 12th round draft choice who has exceeded all expectations at every level.  He turns 27 in April and is a very versatile and athletic player.

I think it is an overreaction to think he will be an elite hitter based on last season's limited number of AB's.

 

And there is nothing to stop the team from giving Jeff McNeil more AB's if he does hit like last year.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.