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Jeff McNeil 2019 Outlook

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http://rotoprofessor.com/10-important-stories-from-04-30-19-box-scores-breakout-hitters-to-buy-and-others-to-ignore-sell-high-starters-more/

 

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Jeff McNeil just continues to hit, but is it time to sell high…
He went 4-5 with 1 RBI and 1 R yesterday, putting him at .370 with a .457 OBP on the season.  Over 100 AB he now has 11 K vs. 10 BB to go along with 1 HR, 12 RBI and 15 R.  The “knock” against him is going to be that he’s produced little in terms of power and speed, meaning his value stems from his average and in turn his ability to score runs (he’s currently operating atop the batting order.  No one is going to argue with his ability to hit the baseball, but let’s keep in mind that his strikeout rate could rise given his 9.7% SwStr% and 31.6% O-Swing% (even if it’s a slight regression) and he entered the day benefiting from a .386 BABIP.  The latter is particularly concerning, considering he entered the day with a 33.3% Hard% and lacks elite speed.  Unless he begins hitting for a little bit more power the value is going to drop significantly and he could start to lose AB.  Keep that in mind before becoming infatuated.

 

he had a high BABIP last season with the Mets (.359), and in AAA (.394), and he has .340 career BABIP in the minors.

fangraphs has him at 36.0 hard hit%, with 32.3 FB%.

baseball savant has him at 39.3 hard hit%, with 13.0 Launch Angle.

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1 hour ago, alisgodnow said:

He has 11 runs in 13 games batting in the 1 or 2 spot. So if he is locked into the top of the order the counting stats will come.  I don't know where I saw it but I saw him compared to Matt Carpenter before his power outbreak.  I think this is a great comp.  Mcneil's breakout pretty much started out of nowhere last year.  He hit 22HR and had 13SB across 3 levels.  His avg exit velocity his 90.9mph which I think is pretty good for his profile.  I think its only a matter of time before we see some HR, especially once the weather heats up.  

Something that caught my eye is that he is 2nd in the league currently in HBP with 6. Seems like a lot.

 

Just my $0.02 but that comp to Carpenter is a little off. I understand why they said it, but McNeil's power doesn't profile like Carp's. 

 

I see more of mid-90s Royals/Padres Wally Joyner

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1 hour ago, LoGo said:

 

Just my $0.02 but that comp to Carpenter is a little off. I understand why they said it, but McNeil's power doesn't profile like Carp's. 

 

I see more of mid-90s Royals/Padres Wally Joyner

 

Love the hipster comp.

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1 hour ago, LoGo said:

 

Just my $0.02 but that comp to Carpenter is a little off. I understand why they said it, but McNeil's power doesn't profile like Carp's. 

 

I see more of mid-90s Royals/Padres Wally Joyner

Read it again "him compared to Matt Carpenter before his power outbreak"

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1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

http://rotoprofessor.com/10-important-stories-from-04-30-19-box-scores-breakout-hitters-to-buy-and-others-to-ignore-sell-high-starters-more/

 

 

he had a high BABIP last season with the Mets (.359), and in AAA (.394), and he has .340 career BABIP in the minors.

fangraphs has him at 36.0 hard hit%, with 32.3 FB%.

baseball savant has him at 39.3 hard hit%, with 13.0 Launch Angle.

 

So the thing about selling high with him is that everyone else can see the low counting stats too. His value seems to be his consistency and versatility and those are not super sexy factors to tout when shopping him around. He's more useful as a guy on your bench to plug in whenever your starters have a day off than as a trade chip.

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Posted (edited)

The two most common comps I see for McNeil are Justin Turner and Matt Carpenter. McNeil just turned 27; below are his MLB stats (2017-2018 - 364 PA) compared to Carpenter and Turner's age 27 stats. It's getting hard to write this off as a small sample size and there are cases of similar hitters finding more power once they adjust to big league pitching. It's no given, mind you, but I still see a considerable ceiling here, even if others don't.

image.png.a973e4e980bca0aedcf1add2e12baf22.png

Edited by Hanghow
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2 hours ago, LoGo said:

 

Just my $0.02 but that comp to Carpenter is a little off. I understand why they said it, but McNeil's power doesn't profile like Carp's. 

 

I see more of mid-90s Royals/Padres Wally Joyner

 

Or a Tigers Era Placido Polanco. 

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Posted (edited)

I think a more realistic expectation the rest of the year is for McNeil is .315 AVG, 10 HR, 10 SB, 80 Runs

Edited by BustHerPosey

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2 hours ago, alisgodnow said:

Read it again "him compared to Matt Carpenter before his power outbreak"

 

Appreciate you pointing that out. I did, in fact, misread it. 

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Only 79% owned in CBS....am I crazy for even wondering why he is not on my roster yet? 10 more points tonight 

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Ice cold for 10+ days now 

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Posted (edited)

Yeah he has gone 8 games without a single counting stat.  Just unacceptable.  I need him to start hitting

Edited by BustHerPosey

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The dude has hit .330 over his MLB career (385 AB) and peeps are upset about a week long slump. Maybe bench him for a couple days and wait it out?

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4 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

The dude has hit .330 over his MLB career (385 AB) and peeps are upset about a week long slump. Maybe bench him for a couple days and wait it out?

The problem isn't that he goes through slumps, its that when he does, he provides NOTHING. He doesn't hit for power, and he doesn't steal bases. RBIs are very low. If he is not providing average or OBP, then its nothing. 

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1 minute ago, mtblock said:

The problem isn't that he goes through slumps, its that when he does, he provides NOTHING. He doesn't hit for power, and he doesn't steal bases. RBIs are very low. If he is not providing average or OBP, then its nothing. 

 

Well you aren't starting McNeil for HRs or SBs are you?  You're starting him for Rs and AVG, or if you play in a non-standard league for OBP and hits.  So when he slumps he's going to not provide... the thing you were counting on him to provide...  that's what a slump is.

 

These are human baseball players, not machines.  The notion that they will provide you with a certain amount of X, Y, or Z, and should they slump they will still provide M, N, or P, is ridiculous.  Roll with the slump, bench him for a week and wait it out, and move a bench guy into his starting spot.  You should have a guy ready to go on your bench for just such situations, no?

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18 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

Well you aren't starting McNeil for HRs or SBs are you?  You're starting him for Rs and AVG, or if you play in a non-standard league for OBP and hits.  So when he slumps he's going to not provide... the thing you were counting on him to provide...  that's what a slump is.

 

These are human baseball players, not machines.  The notion that they will provide you with a certain amount of X, Y, or Z, and should they slump they will still provide M, N, or P, is ridiculous.  Roll with the slump, bench him for a week and wait it out, and move a bench guy into his starting spot.  You should have a guy ready to go on your bench for just such situations, no?

 

I disagree. If Villar struggles, he'll still get you a SB or two (last 2wks 0.231 OBP but 2 SBs). If Cano struggles, he still might get a HR or a few RBIs (5 XBHs in the last 2wks despite 0.292 OBP). That helps minimize the impact of slumps. 

I get that, but McNeil doesn't contribute enough everywhere for me to take some of those lumps. So I traded him two weeks ago at his high point. I also only have a 5-man bench for hitters and pitchers, so I need to maximize the quality of my hitters. I don't have the opportunity to play games with benching struggling hitters or platoon players.

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19 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

Well you aren't starting McNeil for HRs or SBs are you?  You're starting him for Rs and AVG, or if you play in a non-standard league for OBP and hits.  So when he slumps he's going to not provide... the thing you were counting on him to provide...  that's what a slump is.

 

These are human baseball players, not machines.  The notion that they will provide you with a certain amount of X, Y, or Z, and should they slump they will still provide M, N, or P, is ridiculous.  Roll with the slump, bench him for a week and wait it out, and move a bench guy into his starting spot.  You should have a guy ready to go on your bench for just such situations, no?

 

In my 6x6 league (OPS) he's the 23rd ranked 2B.

In my other 6x6 league (TB) he's the 22nd ranked 2B.

In my 7x7 league (BB, TB) he's the 21st ranked 2B.

Three different types of leagues yet the same ranking. I personally don't like to count on players to help in AVG and R only. When these type of players slump they don't leave you with any counting stats at all because they lack both speed and power. Even when they get hot, it's mostly AVG because you can't predict R. To me he's a guy you play when one of your starters is out. I like McNeil as a player but he needs to produce more counting stats like HR, RBI and SB to be even considered a starter in my leagues. 

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Still confused at the outrage over this guy. He's not a player you build a team around. He's not designed to be your starting 3B or one of your OF slots. He's a high OBP guy batting leadoff on a crappy team either for a 2b slot in deep leagues or a bench bat to supplement your lineup when others have off days. 

 

In 225 AB last year, he had 3 HR and 19 Rbi. Not sure what people were expecting other than maybe more SB production. 

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I'm a huge fan who zoned in on him last year and drafted him late this year, but I've got a roster crunch going and his lack of counting stats is beginning to make him vulnerable. I'm not familiar enough with the Mets lineup, perhaps, but what needs to happen for this guy to get some more RBIs? Is his hitting order just prohibitive to them or something? 

This isn't a dig at McNeil, but my roster appears to have surpassed what he offers. I love the versatility and OBP, but he's beginning to look very replaceable. 

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The risk that comes with 2 category guys is when they slump you get 0. 

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I like him as a multi position bench bat that won't go 0/4 the day you plug him in, but nothing more than that. 

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Guess whose back? 

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Mickey’s back

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