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rdf8585

Jay Bruce 2019 Outlook

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Jay Bruce was a steady source of power for several seasons but injuries and poor performance totally tanked his value in 2018. Now he's a Mariner. What will 2019 hold?

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This team will suck and guys don’t magically come here and get better. So keep him on your radar.  Losers still accumulate stats also.

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On 12/3/2018 at 12:16 AM, rdf8585 said:

Jay Bruce was a steady source of power for several seasons but injuries and poor performance totally tanked his value in 2018. Now he's a Mariner. What will 2019 hold?

 

"Steady" is a strange word to use for Bruce who is the poster boy for what a big time streaky player is.  You have to micro-manage him and his streaks.  Not for casual fantasy managers who like to set and forget their line-ups for days and weeks on end or in shallow roster leagues with sparse benches.

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Feel bad for M's fans. You'd be hard pressed to find a more bland and uninspiring middle of the order tag team than Bruce N' Seager. 

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worth a flyer if very cheap....thinking $1 or $2 at end of an auction draft for power....though going to Seattle wont help that!  

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On 12/4/2018 at 8:46 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

"Steady" is a strange word to use for Bruce who is the poster boy for what a big time streaky player is.  You have to micro-manage him and his streaks.  Not for casual fantasy managers who like to set and forget their line-ups for days and weeks on end or in shallow roster leagues with sparse benches.

He was perfect for lazy owners. He was a steady source of power. You'd plug him in and ignore the weekly fluctuations, and by the end of the year you'd have 30 or so homers with a 250 average. 

 

That said, I'm only looking at the was when admiring his work and will not be touching him next season. It of course depends on your league, but in most of mine I won't bother grabbing him even with a late round pick. Steamer doesn't seem to buy in either. They're projecting 23 round trips with a 230 average. In 560 at bats, so it's not like there's hidden upside if he gets more playing time. 20 homers with a crap average isn't awful but it's ww material, imo.

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48 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

He was perfect for lazy owners. He was a steady source of power. You'd plug him in and ignore the weekly fluctuations, and by the end of the year you'd have 30 or so homers with a 250 average.

 

That's why lazy owners never win roto.  You watch him like a hawk, take him out when slumping, put him back in when he trends upward again and end up with 40 or more homers and a .270 average platooning him and another guy in that OF slot.

 

That was my point.  Not that he can't give you something but lazy owners wouldn't get the max out of that particular OF slot by setting and forgetting Bruce.

 

To me it's too much trouble to own Bruce because you have to have two guys to cover that one OF slot which takes up an extra roster space I could use on an extra saves+holds guy or something.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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10 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

That's why lazy owners never win roto.  You watch him like a hawk, take him out when slumping, put him back in when he trends upward again and end up with 40 or more homers and a .270 average platooning him and another guy in that OF slot.

 

That was my point.  Not that he can't give you something but lazy owners wouldn't get the max out of that particular OF slot by setting and forgetting Bruce.

 

To me it's too much trouble to own Bruce because you have to have two guys to cover that one OF slot which takes up an extra roster space I could use on an extra saves+holds guy or something.

Whether you can get MORE value from him by trying to predict his hot streaks is an entirely different topic from whether or not he was steady. He was steady if you look at the year. If you go from week to week he was not. 

 

Fwiw, I don't believe you - or anyone - can accurately predict hot streaks of hitters, but I'm open to seeing articles or data that show otherwise.*

 

*Excluding guys having a series in Colorado, because sign me up for any scrub hitting in that park.

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2 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Whether you can get MORE value from him by trying to predict his hot streaks is an entirely different topic from whether or not he was steady. He was steady if you look at the year. If you go from week to week he was not. 

 

Fwiw, I don't believe you - or anyone - can accurately predict hot streaks of hitters, but I'm open to seeing articles or data that show otherwise.*

 

*Excluding guys having a series in Colorado, because sign me up for any scrub hitting in that park.

 

You don't predict, you watch.  No articles or data needed via some crystal ball.  Just results.  If his production starts to tank, he sits.  If it goes up, he plays.  You just look at his production day to day.  If he is hitting a buck 20 over the last week he better be on your bench.  If he starts hitting a lot over a few days, put him back in your outfield.  Works for all streaky hitters. 

 

Fantasy baseball is not complex in the least though some people want to think it is.  But the reality is it is pretty damn simple.

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11 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

You don't predict, you watch.  No articles or data needed via some crystal ball.  Just results.  If his production starts to tank, he sits.  If it goes up, he plays.  You just look at his production day to day.  If he is hitting a buck 20 over the last week he better be on your bench.  If he starts hitting a lot over a few days, put him back in your outfield.  Works for all streaky hitters. 

 

Fantasy baseball is not complex in the least though some people want to think it is.  But the reality is it is pretty damn simple.

Cool, if it's that easy surely you can post an article or some data that supports your claim. 

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29 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Cool, if it's that easy surely you can post an article or some data that supports your claim. 

 

OT one last time:  I don't read articles to tell me how to win championships.  I use common sense then go out and win.  And who writes articles about common sense? 

 

Again, there is no real reason to read "articles" (I don't even know what you mean by articles so I put it in quotes for that reason) that don't exist.  Why would anyone waste their time to write an article that says: "You know what.  When someone is slumping badly for several weeks on end it is probably a good idea to bench them and put a more productive player in his slot."

 

Data?  How about the data that the slumping guy isn't producing any positive data for your team during that time?  Meanwhile you have a bench bat that is on fire right now.  Hmmm ... what to do, what to do.  Better go read some articles before I change my line-up today.  Not.

 

And yes it is that easy.  The lack of common sense among some owners (not you, I'm talking abut some weird posts in the past I've read here) who would rather tie themselves in knots over arcane saber stats or buy a dozen books to read every year as opposed to reading the stats their players actually produce never ceases to amaze me. 

 

Maybe these fantasy owners think playing fantasy baseball is up there with being a real GM.  It just isn't.  I get that they get a rush and it is a super important hobby for them and they have all this knowledge of WAR data etc running around in their head.  But don't overthink and let your ego get in the way of, again, COMMON SENSE.

 

I'm stopping here because though Jay Bruce is the big poster boy in this discussion I haven't even mentioned him until now.  I like a lot of your posts but on this I don't think we will ever be on the same page anyway so I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

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13 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

OT one last time:  I don't read articles to tell me how to win championships.  I use common sense then go out and win.  And who writes articles about common sense? 

 

Again, there is no real reason to read "articles" (I don't even know what you mean by articles so I put it in quotes for that reason) that don't exist.  Why would anyone waste their time to write an article that says: "You know what.  When someone is slumping badly for several weeks on end it is probably a good idea to bench them and put a more productive player in his slot."

 

Data?  How about the data that the slumping guy isn't producing any positive data for your team during that time?  Meanwhile you have a bench bat that is on fire right now.  Hmmm ... what to do, what to do.  Better go read some articles before I change my line-up today.  Not.

 

And yes it is that easy.  The lack of common sense among some owners (not you, I'm talking abut some weird posts in the past I've read here) who would rather tie themselves in knots over arcane saber stats or buy a dozen books to read every year as opposed to reading the stats their players actually produce never ceases to amaze me. 

 

Maybe these fantasy owners think playing fantasy baseball is up there with being a real GM.  It just isn't.  I get that they get a rush and it is a super important hobby for them and they have all this knowledge of WAR data etc running around in their head.  But don't overthink and let your ego get in the way of, again, COMMON SENSE.

 

I'm stopping here because though Jay Bruce is the big poster boy in this discussion I haven't even mentioned him until now.  I like a lot of your posts but on this I don't think we will ever be on the same page anyway so I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

 

 

Ok. You're free to believe whatever you please. But your belief in something doesn't make it true. By benching a guy who is slumping and putting in a guy who is on fire, you're predicting the slump to continue and the hot streak to continue. You're not getting points for what they did the last few days, but you think it'll last a bit longer. You don't have data to support your claim. And that's ok. Believing in something without data to support the claim isn't a unique stance in baseball. 

 

I'm sure there's some way we've yet to discover that can indicate a likely hot streak ending/continuing/beginning, but it doesn't currently exist. You're just as likely to catch the beginning of a cold streak as the continuation of a hot streak.* You'll just remember the times it worked out and ignore the times it didn't. But if you tracked all your moves I'm pretty sure you'd surprise yourself by seeing you aren't catching any more hot streaks with the churning/benching. I'd be really interested to see your results throughout the season on when to bench/start the streaky players. Maybe a separate thread or the weekly ww threads? Obviously some weeks would go well and some weeks wouldn't, but it'd be interesting to see how much 'better' we could make a player like Jay Bruce by doing this. If you really can catch most of his hot streaks and you could grab a few other players to do the same thing, it'd be a fascinating way to piecemeal a high draft pick production with ww options.

 

* From what I recall, pitchers have a slight degree of predictability for hot streaks in that their velocity varies throughout the season in slow waves and when it's on the higher end they hit their hot streaks. I have yet to see anything similar for hitters. 

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If you lose some stats for one lousy day it doesn't kill you.  Make the change the next day.  You set line-ups daily after all.  If Bruce goes 3 for 4 with two doubles then stick him in the next day and see if he is breaking out.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

If you lose some stats for one lousy day it doesn't kill you.  Make the change the next day.  You set line-ups daily after all.  If Bruce goes 3 for 4 with two doubles then stick him in the next day and see if he is breaking out.

 

Power hitting OF'ers make nice bench bats when filling out your roster.

Home run hitters with a so-so batting average have a tendency to be very streaky.

 

I usually bat a guy like Jay Bruce against all right handers and look to sit him against lefties.  

 

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Don't think he was really healthy last year. Was dealing with Plantar Fasciitis since Spring Training. Assuming he's healthy, a bounce back is not out of the question at all. 

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