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tonycpsu

Jean Segura 2019 Outlook

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Segura's camp just indicated that he'll waive his no-trade clause to become a member of the Phillies, so it's time to talk about one of the more perpetually underrated SS options over the past few years.

 

Ultimately, it's looking like what you think about Segura's 2019 outlook is going to depend on whether you think his power potential at Citizens Bank Park is closer to what we saw at Chase Field in 2016 (20 HR with a .499 SLG) or closer to his two years of lackluster power output in Seattle, with HR more in the low double-digits and a .420ish SLG.  CBP isn't pre-humidor Chase Field, but it's certainly a better place to launch homers than Safeco.

 

Sadly, Segura's home/road splits don't offer a ton of support for the notion that Safeco was dragging him down.  He's actually had more HR over the past two seasons at home (14) than on the road (7) while the SLG has been mixed, significantly better at home in 2017 and a bit better on the road in 2018.  HR are such infrequent events that you don't want to read too much into this, but the numbers aren't screaming to me that he's going to revert to the 20 HR guy he was in Arizona.

 

Despite all of this, I expect Segura to be a high priority target for me in 2019 drafts, because (a) his two carrying skills (a .300ish AVG and 20+ SB) are increasingly hard to find in today's game, and (b) shortstop depth is at levels we've never seen before, making it far less important to go get one of the big-name elite options at the position.  He was a big target for me last year as well, and though my prediction in his 2018 thread that his SB would increase alongside Dee Gordon turned out to be wrong, the track record of delivering in two scarce categories seems worth paying for.  Seeing how much people have gotten burnt spending early picks on guys like Villar or Andrus after career years, I think I'll "settle" for the guy who's just consistently and quietly put up plus numbers over several years.

 

The team context is unknown at this time with so many possible acquisitions to be made still, and it's of course possible that the hype train starts rolling and pushing his price up into the earlier rounds, eliminating the potential to profit from his relative anonymity.  But as a Phillies fan and someone who owns Jean in both dynasty leagues, I'm psyched to see where things go in 2019.

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love the deal with him.  i could see power closer to 20 hr again.  could score a ton of runs hitting in front of hoskins and maybe harper or machado

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where do you see him going this year?  I see him ranked 55 with fantasypros. so 5th-6th round?

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2 hours ago, floppy said:

where do you see him going this year?  I see him ranked 55 with fantasypros. so 5th-6th round?

Sounds about right. I have no problem taking him in top 50 but you can probably get around pick 60-65 if you like draft chicken.

 

hes also going to get dual eligibility 

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

Sounds about right. I have no problem taking him in top 50 but you can probably get around pick 60-65 if you like draft chicken.

 

hes also going to get dual eligibility 

in yahoo he should get 2b? he played every single game at SS. not sure what you mean

Edited by floppy

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

Sounds about right. I have no problem taking him in top 50 but you can probably get around pick 60-65 if you like draft chicken.

 

hes also going to get dual eligibility 

I actually was unaware of any dual eligibility. I don't think he will have anything other than SS going into the season on any platforms(EDIT: looks like he hasn't played a single game at 2b since 2016), and I wasn't under the impression that the Phils are planning to play him anywhere else on the field. What do you know that I obviously do not?

Edited by jbj

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2 minutes ago, jbj said:

I actually was unaware of any dual eligibility. I don't think he will have anything other than SS going into the season on most platforms, and I wasn't under the impression that the Phils are planning to play him anywhere else on the field. What do you know that I obviously do not?

If Machado signs, then he's going to move to second.  

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Just now, Magoo said:

If Machado signs, then he's going to move to second.  

It is looking less likely that Machado goes to the Phillies this week, so that seems like a bit of a stretch. Also, you would think it would make more sense for Machado to play 3B than for Segura to play 2B. Hernandez is more of a lock in that lineup than Franco, and defensively Machado/Segura are more effective at 3B/SS respectively. I don't see dual eligibility as something to bank on at all going into 2019 barring the results of the remainder of the offseason and potential injuries.

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58 minutes ago, jbj said:

It is looking less likely that Machado goes to the Phillies this week, so that seems like a bit of a stretch. Also, you would think it would make more sense for Machado to play 3B than for Segura to play 2B. Hernandez is more of a lock in that lineup than Franco, and defensively Machado/Segura are more effective at 3B/SS respectively. I don't see dual eligibility as something to bank on at all going into 2019 barring the results of the remainder of the offseason and potential injuries.

Hernandez is a wildcard.  Could very easily be moved but I suppose that depends on Machado.  

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I can't figure out who would be in market for Cesar, though.  So many teams already filled their 2B needs with guys like Murphy, Dozier, LeMahieu, etc.  Harrison and Cabera are still out there as capable if not exciting options.  Who's going to pay almost $8M for this year plus whatever he gets in arbitration next year for a guy who doesn't really offer any positional versatility?  What contending teams still need a middling 2B-only player at this point?

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20 hours ago, jbj said:

It is looking less likely that Machado goes to the Phillies this week, so that seems like a bit of a stretch. Also, you would think it would make more sense for Machado to play 3B than for Segura to play 2B. Hernandez is more of a lock in that lineup than Franco, and defensively Machado/Segura are more effective at 3B/SS respectively. I don't see dual eligibility as something to bank on at all going into 2019 barring the results of the remainder of the offseason and potential injuries.

 

19 hours ago, Magoo said:

Hernandez is a wildcard.  Could very easily be moved but I suppose that depends on Machado.  

 

Yeah I'm leaning towards JBJ. Yes, the Phillies COULD use Machado exclusively at SS and guarantee him that position if he comes in. But unless they make that guarantee, it makes a lot more sense to have Hernandez playing than Franco IMO. Franco just isn't that good. Most things broke really well for him last year, and he had his best complete season as a pro, and he finished around 1.5 WAR with .270 and a little over 20 HRs. He's just not a very good baseball player. He's a league average bat with very little glove value and no flexibility there. Hernandez has averaged more than 3+ WAR the last three seasons, and has shown growths as a hitter and growths in his power potential the last few years.

 

The only way Franco starts over Hernandez is if it is MACHADO's decision and not the PHILLIES. Which is just poor management if that's the case. 

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17 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

Yeah I'm leaning towards JBJ. Yes, the Phillies COULD use Machado exclusively at SS and guarantee him that position if he comes in. But unless they make that guarantee, it makes a lot more sense to have Hernandez playing than Franco IMO. Franco just isn't that good. Most things broke really well for him last year, and he had his best complete season as a pro, and he finished around 1.5 WAR with .270 and a little over 20 HRs. He's just not a very good baseball player. He's a league average bat with very little glove value and no flexibility there. Hernandez has averaged more than 3+ WAR the last three seasons, and has shown growths as a hitter and growths in his power potential the last few years.

 

The only way Franco starts over Hernandez is if it is MACHADO's decision and not the PHILLIES. Which is just poor management if that's the case. 

Agreed on Franco.  By moved I meant traded for Hernandez.

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5 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Agreed on Franco.  By moved I meant traded for Hernandez.

 

I think that's a possibility, but I think it's more likely he stays on the team as is. If they weren't trying to win the divison, move him for Kingery anyway. But they are. And Hernandez could be a 3 WAR player for them who won't get 3 WAR worth of trade value on the open market IMO. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, taobball said:

The only way Franco starts over Hernandez is if it is MACHADO's decision and not the PHILLIES. Which is just poor management if that's the case. 

 

i mean, if promising machado SS is the only way to get him to sign with you at all, then it is what it is

 

 

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Think Harper would be a better fit for the Phillies rther than Machado.

Edited by Low and Away
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1 hour ago, floppy said:

ADP for him? 5th?

Love the start to your team in your signature so far btw.. To answer your Q, in all the 10 team ESPN mocks i have done (10-15 mocks),  he has gone as early as 55 and as late as 70. Pretty much right around 60-65 everytime. If I skip the top dogs at SS and then miss Bogaerts, he's my target everytime. Which is most times. If he plays in 150 games, in that park and lineup, I have him pegged for 95/15/60/20 and a.350-.360OBP. Dude is as consistent as they come and a prime target for those wanting to take advantage of the SS depth this year. Very well could be in for a career year due to his change of scenery, and could even top 105+ runs if all falls into place perfectly. I will be looking to pair him with some big RBI/HR bats atop my draft. 

Edited by Motown_Magic

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17 hours ago, Motown_Magic said:

Love the start to your team in your signature so far btw.. To answer your Q, in all the 10 team ESPN mocks i have done (10-15 mocks),  he has gone as early as 55 and as late as 70. Pretty much right around 60-65 everytime. If I skip the top dogs at SS and then miss Bogaerts, he's my target everytime. Which is most times. If he plays in 150 games, in that park and lineup, I have him pegged for 95/15/60/20 and a.350-.360OBP. Dude is as consistent as they come and a prime target for those wanting to take advantage of the SS depth this year. Very well could be in for a career year due to his change of scenery, and could even top 105+ runs if all falls into place perfectly. I will be looking to pair him with some big RBI/HR bats atop my draft. 

thanks, segura being kept is a maybe for me.. I would lose a 5th rounder, that's why I asked ADP. if hes going in the 60s then its not great. I do love the ballpark change and possibly adding Bryce to that lineup. contemplating just keeping d. price at rd 12 instead. segura might fall after 5th

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I think I'm one of the few who's out on Segura at his ADP. Owned him last year and that 2nd half slide was dreadful. He contributed nothing. You can point to the good plate discipline, great hands, and dangerous lineup in Philly, but I can easily see a guy with a pretty boring return of something like .285 84R 10HR 62 RBI 20SB this season. Very safe but not very exciting to be going in the top 75 picks.

 

It's basically Marcus Semien (who you can grab 100 picks later) with a nicer looking BA.

Edited by Hockey_Baseball

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1 hour ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

I think I'm one of the few who's out on Segura at his ADP. Owned him last year and that 2nd half slide was dreadful. He contributed nothing. You can point to the good plate discipline, great hands, and dangerous lineup in Philly, but I can easily see a guy with a pretty boring return of something like .285 84R 10HR 62 RBI 20SB this season. Very safe but not very exciting to be going in the top 75 picks.

 

It's basically Marcus Semien (who you can grab 100 picks later) with a nicer looking BA.

 

Did Semien hit above .300 three consecutive years? No? Oh he’s actually been .255 at best the last three. 

 

Has Semien stole 20 bases for 6 straight years? No? Oh he’s actually never done that and peaked at 14?

 

Did Semien move to one of the best ballparks in baseball for hitters this year? No? Still plays in one of the worst?

 

Puh-lease. You’re low on him because you have power projected at his three year floor, BA projected 20 points UNDER his three year floor, no HR improvement based on Park, and frankly a Rs total far too low. You’re fudging a lot of gaps and pretending they aren’t as big as they are to bring Semien up to Segura.

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22 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Did Semien hit above .300 three consecutive years? No? Oh he’s actually been .255 at best the last three. 

 

Has Semien stole 20 bases for 6 straight years? No? Oh he’s actually never done that and peaked at 14?

 

Did Semien move to one of the best ballparks in baseball for hitters this year? No? Still plays in one of the worst?

 

Puh-lease. You’re low on him because you have power projected at his three year floor, BA projected 20 points UNDER his three year floor, no HR improvement based on Park, and frankly a Rs total far too low. You’re fudging a lot of gaps and pretending they aren’t as big as they are to bring Semien up to Segura.

 

I'll take it one step further 😊

Three shortstops who could put up the same 5x5 stats as Segura this year, all getting picked well after he is:

Peraza
Profar
Andrus

Jean Segura - Post ASB:
(54 GP, 215 AB) - 25R 3HR 16 RBI 6SB 4CS - .270 / .319 / .340 🤢

 

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12 minutes ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

 

I'll take it one step further 😊

Three shortstops who could put up the same 5x5 stats as Segura this year, all getting picked well after he is:

Peraza
Profar
Andrus

Jean Segura - Post ASB:
(54 GP, 215 AB) - 25R 3HR 16 RBI 6SB 4CS - .270 / .319 / .340 🤢

 

 

I’d have preferred you defend your one point more than just throwing out more names.

 

I’ll take the fact that he’s still in his Prime, has been a high quality player for three years, and the team context as being more viable arguments then “well he was kindve cold for two months, and still was at about a .280/10/20 Pace.”

 

youre looking and almost admittedly looking at pure floor. Segura is the only player here who is safe for the solid numbers but also possesses the upside of a .310/20/30 player like he was in a better context two years ago 🤷🏼‍♂️

Edited by taobball

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38 minutes ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

 

I'll take it one step further 😊

Three shortstops who could put up the same 5x5 stats as Segura this year, all getting picked well after he is:

Peraza
Profar
Andrus

Jean Segura - Post ASB:
(54 GP, 215 AB) - 25R 3HR 16 RBI 6SB 4CS - .270 / .319 / .340 🤢

 

 

Dude, tao's right. You're projecting Segura to perform under his floor the past three seasons. You projected a .285 average. He's hit at least .300 each of the past three seasons. You projected 84 runs when he'll be near the top of a batting order that frankly is much better than any he's had in Seattle. And while he's not a power guy, the last time he played in a good hitter's park was 2016 in Arizona, where he hit 20. I'm not saying he hits 20 in Philly, but 10 still seems too conservative. 

Point is, he'd have to play below his floor to put up the same numbers as Perazar or Andrus (Profar is on the rise I think, so he could be better than some expect). Segura is the best SS once the usual suspects are off the board, and he should be drafted as such.

Edited by phillyphan21
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