Zak0221

2019 Do Not Draft List

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13 minutes ago, Guwop said:

Jordan Howard 

Royce freeman 

Devontae freeman

AJ green (gets hurt annually, misses games, then puts up duds as a decoy) 

Any qb before 5th round

Anyone on the titans/dolphins 

Fournette: he produces but health risk too great

Any titans players

Sony Michel 

 

 

Great list though I would maybe take a swing at Kenyan Drake since his price should be low. 

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10 minutes ago, stay_woke said:

Lol at people putting Mahomes on their DND list. If you play with knowledgeable managers he'll get drafted late 2nd/early 3rd which is a fair price for a guy who is currently 60 points ahead of the next best QB.

 

That said I probably wont draft him because I like to wait on QBs but to say he is DND is ridiculous. People were saying the same about Kamara this year "Theres no way he could repeat last season" and look what happened. Id say hes good value anywhere in the 3rd.

 

To add an actual DND to the list Id say leonard fournette anywhere in the first 2 (maybe 3) rounds. Too inury prone (and soft) and has been suspended a game each season for foolish behavior.

2nd/3rd is crazy. Look what happened with Watson. I mean he's not been doing bad but not the 5th round price tag

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2 minutes ago, LuckyLukas said:

LeVeon Bell

 

Depends where he gets taken. End of first or early second? I’d probably do it. It’ll be interesting to see where he goes.

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20 minutes ago, GreatScott! said:

Gronk - I’m guessing he still goes in the 2nd round

Not a chance

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Just now, bhawks489 said:

2nd/3rd is crazy. Look what happened with Watson. I mean he's not been doing bad but not the 5th round price tag

 

Watson was a rookie who played less than half a season and then tore his ACL. Not really a similar situation at all imo. Mahomes is 60 points above the #2 QB, the largest gap between 1 and 2 at any position. Surely that fact alone makes him a quality pick in the 3rd.

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This question is impossible to answer until we start getting a general idea of how ADPs unfold.

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7 minutes ago, stay_woke said:

Lol at people putting Mahomes on their DND list. If you play with knowledgeable managers he'll get drafted late 2nd/early 3rd which is a fair price for a guy who is currently 60 points ahead of the next best QB.

 

That said I probably wont draft him because I like to wait on QBs but to say he is DND is ridiculous. People were saying the same about Kamara this year "Theres no way he could repeat last season" and look what happened. Id say hes good value anywhere in the 3rd.

 

To add an actual DND to the list Id say leonard fournette anywhere in the first 2 (maybe 3) rounds. Too inury prone (and soft) and has been suspended a game each season for foolish behavior.

Even if we all agreed that Mahomes peaked in his 1st yr as a starter, he could regress 20% and still return late 1st/2nd rd value.

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4 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This question is impossible to answer until we start getting a general idea of how ADPs unfold.

 

It's not impossible, there are plenty of answers to this question we can talk about now.

 

Another DND in 2019 for me would be Josh Gordon :P

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Just now, Zak0221 said:

 

It's not impossible, there are plenty of answers to this question we can talk about now.

 

Another DND in 2019 for me would be Josh Gordon :P

Is it? For example, I would throw Fournette on this list. However, if his ADP is in the 25+ range I will gladly take the jump.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Is it? For example, I would throw Fournette on this list. However, if his ADP is in the 25+ range I will gladly take the jump.

 

This is an acceptable answer.  See it's not impossible!

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21 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This question is impossible to answer until we start getting a general idea of how ADPs unfold.

Or where people end up in free agency and after the NFL draft. 

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Happy to see Dalvin Cook on several people’s DND lists... I hope this is the prevailing feeling going into next year.

 

He was near the top of my DND list this year, but assuming he stays healthy ROS, he’ll be someone I’ll be targeting at a discount in 2019. Healthier and (likely) improved O-Line next year, 12 months further removed from the ACL, and he looked great last week.  If he comes into camp at 100%, he’ll get back to workhorse status next year.

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i will never take a Pats RB in the Belichick era. There is always value to be found in that backfield but I have NO idea how to find it. I will also probably tend to stay away from the Seahawks backfield as long as Pete is coaching there. Pederson in Philly seems to be real found of 3+ play RBBC so that's another set of RBs i'll not draft. 

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1 hour ago, stay_woke said:

Lol at people putting Mahomes on their DND list. If you play with knowledgeable managers he'll get drafted late 2nd/early 3rd which is a fair price for a guy who is currently 60 points ahead of the next best QB.

 

That said I probably wont draft him because I like to wait on QBs but to say he is DND is ridiculous. People were saying the same about Kamara this year "Theres no way he could repeat last season" and look what happened. Id say hes good value anywhere in the 3rd.

 

To add an actual DND to the list Id say leonard fournette anywhere in the first 2 (maybe 3) rounds. Too inury prone (and soft) and has been suspended a game each season for foolish behavior.

I dunno, Mahomes has been so good this year I could see someone going bold and picking him in the early teens. The 2018 second round had a lot of risky picks (Cook, Fournette, Gronk in this tier) that if you feel like you'd rather take a big edge on QB points and try to pick value RBs later... why not? Bigger Q is who else will be listed in the 2nd/3rd round group. You'll prob see Cook and Fournette in that group again, guys like Julio and prob AJ. Lots of "solid if healthy" types. 

 

Somewhat related but I actually stopped by here for the first time in awhile to see if anyone had some early 2019 rankings. 

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Even if we all agreed that Mahomes peaked in his 1st yr as a starter, he could regress 20% and still return late 1st/2nd rd value.

 

Take 20 percent of his points away this year, and he's the no3 overall QB in my league. But he'd barely be behind no1 Ben. Not 1st/2nd rd value, imho, but that just demonstrates how impressive his season has been. 

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Anyone 30 or over before round 6 

Any QB not named Mahomes before round 6 

Sammy Watkins 

Leonard Fournette 

Devonta Freeman

Derrick Henry (will remain on list as long he's in the NFL, which won't be much longer) 

Alshon Jeffrey

 

 

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40 minutes ago, yossarian said:

i will never take a Pats RB in the Belichick era. There is always value to be found in that backfield but I have NO idea how to find it. I will also probably tend to stay away from the Seahawks backfield as long as Pete is coaching there. Pederson in Philly seems to be real found of 3+ play RBBC so that's another set of RBs i'll not draft. 

 

I hear ya, the only time it seemed like a no-brainer to me (at least since I started taking FF seriously 4 or 5 years ago), was the year (2016 I think) Dion Lewis started the season on IR, and the Pats pretty much only had Blount and White. I think I got Blount in the 7th or 8th that year, which IMO was well worth the shot. It later helped that Gronkowski played only half the season, so Blount was pretty much THE red zone/goal line option, to the tune of 18 TD's (1,000+ yards didn't hurt either)

Edited by JCDaly

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2 hours ago, stay_woke said:

Lol at people putting Mahomes on their DND list.

 

Well, I think the unstated understanding is that he's on their DND lists at his anticipated ADP. He may have 2nd-3rd value, but there are owners who simply will not take a QB that early. I get it. Fortunately, I have him as a 10th rd keeper, so I won't have that problem :D.

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A few people saying Gronk but honestly I was surprised he was rated so highly coming into this season with him considering retirement in the offseason.  

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6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Take 20 percent of his points away this year, and he's the no3 overall QB in my league. But he'd barely be behind no1 Ben. Not 1st/2nd rd value, imho, but that just demonstrates how impressive his season has been. 

If that's his floor, he's absolutely a good value.

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