Zak0221

2019 Do Not Draft List

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2 minutes ago, frog34 said:

Mahomes hasn't scored less than 20 pts all season long, while all the other top tier QBs have had multiple games below 10 pts. And that's not even taking into account Mahomes' insane ceiling. Even when I thought at halftime yesterday that this might be the game Mahomes puts up a clunker, in the end he turned it around.

 

I'm a big believer in drafting QBs late. In fact, in recent years I had some drafts where I didn't even draft a QB in 10 or 12 team leagues, because playing weekly matchups gave me good results. After owning Mahomes this season and looking how most of the players I had circled in rounds 2 and 3 failed, I will consider Mahomes early. At least if I'm not 100% confident in the best skill position player on the board.

It's nice to set it and forget it with Mahomes for sure. If you don't like what you see at other positions I'd say take him. I think you can say the same thing about stud TE's though. If I knew Mahomes was gonna score the same this year I would take him. He's having an epic year and that is hard to repeat. Next year he won't have the explosiveness from Hunt. I'd expect his defense to improve  and I would expect some natural regression. I'd expect their schedule to be a bit tougher as well.  The fantasy gods have a way of pulling the floor from under us. I could certainly be wrong and he could be even better next year. 

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19 minutes ago, frog34 said:

How can you put the #1 ranked WR in fantasy into boom/bust tier? AB, OBJ or Julio have "down" games as well, just like Tyreek. They have amazing ceilings too, but Tyreek I feel has much better odds at reaching his weekly ceiling.

Because on any given week all three of these guy's can put up monster points or greatly disappoint. That would be Boom or bust. I'm not saying they won't put up big numbers at the end of the  year.

 

I agree Tyreek is more toward the boom. Ebron will have Doyle back next year. Cohen sometimes doesn't get the touches.

Edited by mongidig

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8 hours ago, Tghetty said:

Srs? This guy made some great plays last few season. Bad team won’t stop him

 

 

 

I hope every youngun here at least watches the top three. Every time he breathes he is juking.

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Amari Cooper, I'm staying far away if people draft him as a WR1. 

Edited by Jaw1
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2 hours ago, Jaw1 said:

Amari Cooper, I'm staying far away if people draft him as a WR1. 

If you're in a 12 or 14 team league, the WR12 or WR14 would usually go around bottom of the second or maybe early third.  You wouldn't take a shot on the #1 WR in Dallas who has been a week winner twice in just a short time after the trade? 

 

Once again, Jordan Reed shows why he should be on the DND list in Sharpie marker.

Tyler Eifert the same.

 

David Johnson is an easy call.

Fournette as well because of injury risk.

 

 

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4 hours ago, mongidig said:

What if Ben retires?

 

Then obviously a re-evaluation is necessary. But I don't see Ben retiring. That man will have to be dragged off the field and told no one wants him in Pittsburgh anymore. Then he'll just find another team willing to take a chance on him, lol. 

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There's a good chance I won't draft Amari Cooper because I go RB heavy to start but it's clear that Dak loves throwing to him. I'd guess he will go very early next year.

 

David Johnson will be on a lot of DND lists but if comes at a decent discount then I may take the risk, I wouldn't draft him until late second round.

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29 minutes ago, CooL said:

If you're in a 12 or 14 team league, the WR12 or WR14 would usually go around bottom of the second or maybe early third.  You wouldn't take a shot on the #1 WR in Dallas who has been a week winner twice in just a short time after the trade? 

 

Once again, Jordan Reed shows why he should be on the DND list in Sharpie marker.

Tyler Eifert the same.

 

David Johnson is an easy call.

Fournette as well because of injury risk.

 

 

 

I could very well be wrong (like I was when I thought nobody would be crazy enough to give a 1st up for him and even more so when it hasn't looked crazy at all) but I personally wouldn't take him bottom of the second or early third. I don't doubt others might which is why he won't be on any of my teams next year. Things have been real sweet for Cooper lately. However, 2 big games doesn't make me forget the previous seasons of both Cooper and Prescott. Both have been streaky over their careers so color me skeptical that both parts of the equation will be in sync for the majority of next season. Cooper had a 2 TD 200+ yd 44pt game last year we've known he is capable of winning weeks its the consistency that has been a problem for him. 

 

I think any DND guy depends heavily on where they are taken. Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert's injury risk where already factored fairly heavily into their draft stock heading into this season so I don't think the sunk any owners and with their talent at a weak position I wouldn't be against taking the gamble again at the right price.

 

Similarly everyone is down on David Johnson and Fournette so their draft position will likely reflect that and at a certain point I think they become worth the risk. I don't believe Cooper is worth the risk if he is going to be drafted like a WR1, certainly if he goes in the 2nd round. For me it would probably take him falling to the 4th which seems highly unlikely considering where he went this year after his performance last season. 

Edited by Jaw1

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28 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

I could very well be wrong (like I was when I thought nobody would be crazy enough to give a 1st up for him and even more so when it hasn't looked crazy at all) but I personally wouldn't take him bottom of the second or early third. I don't doubt others might which is why he won't be on any of my teams next year. Things have been real sweet for Cooper lately. However, 2 big games doesn't make me forget the previous seasons of both Cooper and Prescott. Both have been streaky over their careers so color me skeptical that both parts of the equation will be in sync for the majority of next season. Cooper had a 2 TD 200+ yd 44pt game last year we've known he is capable of winning weeks its the consistency that has been a problem for him. 

 

I think any DND guy depends heavily on where they are taken. Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert's injury risk where already factored fairly heavily into their draft stock heading into this season so I don't think the sunk any owners and with their talent at a weak position I wouldn't be against taking the gamble again at the right price.

 

Similarly everyone is down on David Johnson and Fournette so their draft position will likely reflect that and at a certain point I think they become worth the risk. I don't believe Cooper is worth the risk if he is going to be drafted like a WR1, certainly if he goes in the 2nd round. For me it would probably take him falling to the 4th which seems highly unlikely considering where he went this year after his performance last season. 

True.  I suppose the definition of "Do Not Draft" is different for anyone.  Seems like some people, yourself included, view it as "Do Not Draft at ADP", while others simply have it as "Do Not Draft even if he is the last player available in the league". 

 

My DND draft includes people that I'm just fed up with.  Typically a guy ends up on this list if you've owned him before and he's caused you to lose your hair, throw things at the tv, agonize over and over about why you picked this bum.  The guy has talent, so you don't want to drop him out of fear of your leaguemates picking him up and then he goes off, yet he literally is destroying your team week in and week out. 

 

I've owned brittle Jordan Reed enough times over the years, sometimes at reduced draft cost.  I'm just done.  I don't care anymore about his potential.  I just don't want the headache.  I don't care if somebody else gets him in the 10th round and he is actually good.

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9 minutes ago, CooL said:

True.  I suppose the definition of "Do Not Draft" is different for anyone.  Seems like some people, yourself included, view it as "Do Not Draft at ADP", while others simply have it as "Do Not Draft even if he is the last player available in the league". 

 

My DND draft includes people that I'm just fed up with.  Typically a guy ends up on this list if you've owned him before and he's caused you to lose your hair, throw things at the tv, agonize over and over about why you picked this bum.  The guy has talent, so you don't want to drop him out of fear of your leaguemates picking him up and then he goes off, yet he literally is destroying your team week in and week out. 

 

I've owned brittle Jordan Reed enough times over the years, sometimes at reduced draft cost.  I'm just done.  I don't care anymore about his potential.  I just don't want the headache.  I don't care if somebody else gets him in the 10th round and he is actually good.

 

Do not draft at projected ADP seems like the reasonable way to view it. Would you really not draft Fournette or DJ if they were available in the 8th round (screw last player available)? Someone of Reed's caliber is a little easier to throw the towel in on but still even if you don't want a guy on your team at a certain point it is too good to pass up, you can always trade them. I'm fine with frustration from previous seasons causing you to downgrade a guy (to the point he is below his projected ADP for you so likely DND for you) but I think it is a little naive to say I'm not drafting this guy under any circumstance. Especially since the frustration the guy caused is likely since he was a disappointment which even a lot of non-owners will recognize and his ADP will likely slide some accordingly. 

 

Although I guess McCoy was on my DND list but then when his ADP slid a little bit when the domestic violence stuff broke he came back on my radar. Luckily, he never fell far enough in any of my drafts that I got him though. 

Edited by Jaw1

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1 hour ago, Jaw1 said:

 

Do not draft at projected ADP seems like the reasonable way to view it. Would you really not draft Fournette or DJ if they were available in the 8th round (screw last player available)? Someone of Reed's caliber is a little easier to throw the towel in on but still even if you don't want a guy on your team at a certain point it is too good to pass up, you can always trade them. I'm fine with frustration from previous seasons causing you to downgrade a guy (to the point he is below his projected ADP for you so likely DND for you) but I think it is a little naive to say I'm not drafting this guy under any circumstance. Especially since the frustration the guy caused is likely since he was a disappointment which even a lot of non-owners will recognize and his ADP will likely slide some accordingly. 

 

Although I guess McCoy was on my DND list but then when his ADP slid a little bit when the domestic violence stuff broke he came back on my radar. Luckily, he never fell far enough in any of my drafts that I got him though. 

Oh for sure.  I think even if the guy was on my "DND ever list", I'd be a fool not to take Fournette or David Johnson in the eighth round.  But the obviously realistic scenario is that they would never make it that far.  So whether or not you call the list DND at ADP or DND ever, it works itself out because there surely will be some leaguemate who will value that guy and make the subtle distinction between the two lists nothing to worry about.  I don't expect Jordan Reed to be on my entire league's DND list, because if that's the case, then somebody will get him in the 15th round.

 

1 hour ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Baldwin

Howard

DJ (if round 1)

Kamara (if round 1)

Evans (if round 1-2)

Devonta Freeman

Jay Ayaji

 

Kamara?  I think he's going to be top 5 next year for sure, but I wouldn't take him over Gurley, Barkley, Zeke, or CMC.  He hasn't been the league winner like he was last year, but he's still plenty productive.  Late first for me.

 

Agree with all your others, some because of injury concerns and some just because I don't like their situation (Howard).

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1 hour ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Baldwin

Howard

DJ (if round 1)

Kamara (if round 1)

Evans (if round 1-2)

Devonta Freeman

Jay Ayaji

 

 

Yeah I'm not sure about Kamara. Ingram could leave in free agency and Kamara proved in the first 4 weeks he isn't some 5ft 180lb scatback like people thought he was just cause he is super quick and catches a lot of passes (he's 5ft 10 214 and has a higher BMI than many of the "workhorse" backs like Bell, Gurley, Gordon, Mixon, and even Elliot). 

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5 minutes ago, CooL said:

Oh for sure.  I think even if the guy was on my "DND ever list", I'd be a fool not to take Fournette or David Johnson in the eighth round.  But the obviously realistic scenario is that they would never make it that far.  So whether or not you call the list DND at ADP or DND ever, it works itself out because there surely will be some leaguemate who will value that guy and make the subtle distinction between the two lists nothing to worry about.  I don't expect Jordan Reed to be on my entire league's DND list, because if that's the case, then somebody will get him in the 15th round.

 

Kamara?  I think he's going to be top 5 next year for sure, but I wouldn't take him over Gurley, Barkley, Zeke, or CMC.  He hasn't been the league winner like he was last year, but he's still plenty productive.  Late first for me.

 

Agree with all your others, some because of injury concerns and some just because I don't like their situation (Howard).

I LOVE Kamara (drafted him in half my leagues this year), however I do not think he is worth his projected ADP next year with Ingram still in the mix and the way the saints are currently running their offense. I would love to take Kamara as a early-mid round 2 pick but I am a big fan of bell-cow backs over someone like Kamara. 

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1 minute ago, Jaw1 said:

 

Yeah I'm not sure about Kamara. Ingram could leave in free agency and Kamara proved in the first 4 weeks he isn't some 5ft 180lb scatback like people thought he was just cause he is super quick and catches a lot of passes (he's 5ft 10 214 and has a higher BMI than many of the "workhorse" backs like Bell, Gurley, Gordon, Mixon, and even Elliot). 

If Ingram were to leave that would change my outlook completely. 

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58 minutes ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

I LOVE Kamara (drafted him in half my leagues this year), however I do not think he is worth his projected ADP next year with Ingram still in the mix and the way the saints are currently running their offense. I would love to take Kamara as a early-mid round 2 pick but I am a big fan of bell-cow backs over someone like Kamara. 

Ingram becomes a FA next season and if he leaves NO, Kamara is definitely top 5

Edited by DezedandConfused

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2 hours ago, DezedandConfused said:

DND: GRONK

 

He gets dual designation next year though so you can put him in either a te or idp spot.

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Any Ravens RB at any price no matter what happens in the off-season, as long as Harbaugh is still in town.

 

I still can’t believe he pulled Gus Edwards out of a hat just when Alex Collins was finally going to face some easy run defenses. Never again.

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Kareem Hunt 😎

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I don't see how David Johnson is mentioned by so many.  Maybe because they were burned this year, but I see him coming at a big discount next year and I'd take him at the right price,

 

As for my guy I have to say Brandon Cooks.  I have had him the last couple of years.  He is so inconsistent. Too many 3 pt weeks.  People will see him next year as the #1 Rams Wr and will take him high.  He is all an illusion.  There is a reason that both the Saints and Patriots both dumped him.  These are not dumb teams...they know offense.  He disappears.  I will never draft him again.  You people can go ahead.  His ADP will be too high for what he is worth.

Edited by StuPitt
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