absknicks

Aaron Judge 2019 Outlook

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Put up 27-77-.278 with a 149 wRC+ and 15.3% BB% in 498 PA in 2018. Important to remember he was coming off of offseason shoulder surgery and missed 1.5 months during the season due to a broken wrist, so I think it's fair to say he probably wasn't at full health for most of the year.

 

Steamer currently projects him to put up 37-94-.251 triple slash with a 135 wRC+. I think it's safe to assume the average will always outperform the BABIP and other metrics which don't take into account exit velocity. 

 

Personally, I think 40-100-.275 and a 145 wRC+ is a fair expectation. Not sure we'll ever see 2017 Judge again, but he's still one of the few best hitters in all of MLB and he'll have a healthy offseason under his belt this time around. 

 

 

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I believe he was once again the "worst" umpired hitter in the league.  If that ever changes look out 

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5 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

I believe he was once again the "worst" umpired hitter in the league.  If that ever changes look out 

 

This is very true.   He had by far the highest % of balls out of the zone called strikes of any player in the league.  He also slumped hard when coming off the dl from his broken wrist. Before going on the dl despite all the bad calls he was still on pace to be a top 10 hitter.   He also despite all the bad calls never really waivered on his approach nor chased many bad pitches out of the zone.  

 

If the umpires ever give him a fair shake and he can stay healthy for a full season I see no reason why he couldn't come close to if not exceed his rookie year performance. I really love his work ethic and demeanor.  He never seems over whelmed or frustrated when things don't go his way and you hardly ever see him complain about the many terrible calls he gets.  

 

I think both of those projections for Judge are pretty modest and the sky's the limit for him.  He still has a lot to prove because of his amazing rookie year and the expectations that follow but he could very well be a generational talent and it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he takes the next step and becomes a top 5 player for many years to come.

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I think he has a good case as a top-5 MLB hitter right now. He's definitely in the discussion. 

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I think a lot of people still don't recognize what a special freak talent he is. Those streamer projections are light

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6 hours ago, absknicks said:

I think he has a good case as a top-5 MLB hitter right now. He's definitely in the discussion. 

Yes.  If you play in any kind of obp/ops format,  esp keeper or dynasty style,  i don't see how you let him slip past 5ish. 

 

If anyone non steroids were to mess with the HR record,  it's this guy.  

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I think he needs to start complaining about some of those bad calls.  He and Boone.  Demand the umps start getting it right.

 

ETA:  He needs to stop being Mr. Nice Guy all of the time.  When a guy his size starts yelling at you, you'll start to pay attention.

Edited by TopChuckie
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I almost wanted to bet my life he'd bat under .250 last year. Clearly it couldn't be more wrong. Full healthy season I'd put him at 110-40-110 .275.

 

Fun fact: I was at his major league debut game. Judge and Tyler Austin went back to back I believe. Me and my friend were so drunk we thought Judge was Giambi.

 

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1 hour ago, Eddie Mush said:

 

 

Fun fact: I was at his major league debut game. Judge and Tyler Austin went back to back I believe. Me and my friend were so drunk we thought Judge was Giambi.

 

Jeremy or Jason?

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5 hours ago, TopChuckie said:

I think he needs to start complaining about some of those bad calls.  He and Boone.  Demand the umps start getting it right.

 

ETA:  He needs to stop being Mr. Nice Guy all of the time.  When a guy his size starts yelling at you, you'll start to pay attention.

You would even think at some point the league and commissioners office should get involved. I mean it's certainly not good for the sport when you are taking away at bats from one of the games brightest rising stars on so many blaitently bad calls.  It's not even just 1 season, it has been going on since his rookie year.  I've even seen him get called out looking on strikes on several occasions by pitches that were a few feet off the plate and just not even close.

 

 I mean he already has the largest strike zone in the game and one of the best eyes in all of baseball, so how are the umpires consistently giving so many bad calls to him.  It makes no sense. At some point he deserves the benefit of the doubt.  I'm not saying it should get to the point like in th NBA where they consistently give certain superstars an extra step or 2 but at least on those borderline calls he should get the benefit of the doubt more often than not, and there are really no excuses for consistantly getting wrong the more obvious ones. it's not just bad for him and the Yankees, but for all of baseball too.

Edited by 2Balls1Bat
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On 12/7/2018 at 2:52 PM, TopChuckie said:

I think he needs to start complaining about some of those bad calls.  He and Boone.  Demand the umps start getting it right.

 

ETA:  He needs to stop being Mr. Nice Guy all of the time.  When a guy his size starts yelling at you, you'll start to pay attention.

If im Boone, opening day im doing nothing but watching the monitor.  The very first time he gets a bad call,  it's suspension time boyos. Im talking full Lasorda with a side of Weaver, sprinkled with the dust of McGraws anger.  The grenade base toss, the full covering of plate in dirt,  f bombs for the whole crew and the closest hotdog vendor,  and the entire bench worth of bats thrown on the field.  Go all in,  highlight reel epic blow up. Send the message loud n clear,  obv fangraph articles aren't enough.  

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19 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

If im Boone, opening day im doing nothing but watching the monitor.  The very first time he gets a bad call,  it's suspension time boyos. Im talking full Lasorda with a side of Weaver, sprinkled with the dust of McGraws anger.  The grenade base toss, the full covering of plate in dirt,  f bombs for the whole crew and the closest hotdog vendor,  and the entire bench worth of bats thrown on the field.  Go all in,  highlight reel epic blow up. Send the message loud n clear,  obv fangraph articles aren't enough.  

And if that's not enough and he gets another bad call after that he should pull a Bobby Valentine with the fake mustache and do it all over again.

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5 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

If im Boone, opening day im doing nothing but watching the monitor.  The very first time he gets a bad call,  it's suspension time boyos. Im talking full Lasorda with a side of Weaver, sprinkled with the dust of McGraws anger.  The grenade base toss, the full covering of plate in dirt,  f bombs for the whole crew and the closest hotdog vendor,  and the entire bench worth of bats thrown on the field.  Go all in,  highlight reel epic blow up. Send the message loud n clear,  obv fangraph articles aren't enough.  

 

 

I said this all last year and Boone never came close to standing up for him. Just another reason I'm extremely down on him as a manager. 

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Posted (edited)

Bat looks quicker than ever. 

60 dongs this year for Judge WOP-ner!!! 

 

Just keep Jake 🤬'n Junis away from him.

Edited by DannyMcPot
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42 minutes ago, DannyMcPot said:

Bat looks quicker than ever. 

60 dongs this year for Judge WOP-ner!!! 

 

Just keep Jake 🤬'n Junis away from him.

3 hr this spring

 

and i love that opposite field swing

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Lessened his leg kick and closed his stance from last year. Knew that swing looked quicker to me.

He's the kind of player who looks to keep improving. Looks noticeably slimmer too. Huge year incoming.

Yuuuuuuuuge!

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3 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Pretty sure that gif on the left is from two years ago. It was a home run off Jason Grilli.  He shortened his leg kick prior to last season. 

Na, it was last year off Clippard

 

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7 minutes ago, DannyMcPot said:

Na, it was last year off Clippard

 

 

Yeah, my bad

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Judge is going to put up some stupid style video game numbers this year if healthy. Insane value right now on yahoo. 

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1 hour ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Judge is going to put up some stupid style video game numbers this year if healthy. Insane value right now on yahoo. 

agree with the 1st part. most managers aren't that dumb. he has gone 11th overall in all 3 of my drafts

if he makes it past the 12/13 turn you lucked out (if you get him)

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6 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

agree with the 1st part. most managers aren't that dumb. he has gone 11th overall in all 3 of my drafts

if he makes it past the 12/13 turn you lucked out (if you get him)

 

ya i think hes a first rounder now. and i agree if you get him at like 15 you are super lucky at this point.

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59 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

ya i think hes a first rounder now. and i agree if you get him at like 15 you are super lucky at this point.

 

I got him at 18 in one league I drafted like a week ago to go along with Yelich. 😁

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27 minutes ago, jimbo504 said:

 

I got him at 18 in one league I drafted like a week ago to go along with Yelich. 😁

 

i dont take 2 outfielders in the first 2 rounds...but thats pretty beastly.  in an ideal world id get something like arenado,bregman in the later first, judge in the 2nd, and then Alberto Mondesi in the 3rd or 4th.

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another hr in spring...and Another beautiful opposite field HR.  such a good approach for yankee stadium

 

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