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KilloWertz

Paul Goldschmidt 2019 Outlook

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Looks like he's going to St. Louis.  Will this help him or will the move be a wash for him statistically?  I think we can all safely say that it won't hurt him, as he was awful at home in Arizona for a good portion of last season.

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His home numbers faltered basically in line with the humidor, so one could wonder if this is going to be an upgrade for a home park for him. He will be in a stronger lineup for sure compared to what the Dbacks will look like in 2019, and it should be a stronger lineup than the 2018 Dbacks as well. He won't play as many games at Coors, but there are a couple of good hitters parks in the NL Central and he won't be actively playing against too many ace starters. His place in the hitting order should be virtually identical. I think his age is the biggest question mark, but otherwise he will still be projected just slightly higher for next season, and it shouldn't affect his ADP unless the Cardinals pick up another big bat.

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It won't help him individually per ball park I don't think but may help him with the better line-up as in more RBIs.

 

Adding Goldy one year on his contract means St Louis is going all in this season.  Wouldn't be surprised if they go after one of the remaining decent FA pitchers as well.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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Immediate downgrade as he won't be able to blast balls into orbit against the Giants all season long.

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2 hours ago, jbj said:

His home numbers faltered basically in line with the humidor, so one could wonder if this is going to be an upgrade for a home park for him. He will be in a stronger lineup for sure compared to what the Dbacks will look like in 2019, and it should be a stronger lineup than the 2018 Dbacks as well. He won't play as many games at Coors, but there are a couple of good hitters parks in the NL Central and he won't be actively playing against too many ace starters. His place in the hitting order should be virtually identical. I think his age is the biggest question mark, but otherwise he will still be projected just slightly higher for next season, and it shouldn't affect his ADP unless the Cardinals pick up another big bat.

 

He loses out on Coors but he also avoids LA, SD ans SF which are all pitcher parks and the pitchers that go with them. San Francisco being if not the most, a top 3 run suppressing park. I think overall the confines of the NL Central will be a net positive for him and certainly hes got a better lineup around him and should see more guys on base, as you alluded to. 

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1 hour ago, dzemens said:

 

He loses out on Coors but he also avoids LA, SD ans SF which are all pitcher parks and the pitchers that go with them. San Francisco being if not the most, a top 3 run suppressing park. I think overall the confines of the NL Central will be a net positive for him and certainly hes got a better lineup around him and should see more guys on base, as you alluded to. 

He should be good for 15 HR against the reds alone

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Busch Stadium is very much a pitcher's park, but I don't think Goldy will be negatively impacted. However, his K% has been increasing and his BB% has been decreasing over the past few seasons. On the bright side, he still had an excellent wRC+ and his hard% was a career-high.

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2 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Busch Stadium is very much a pitcher's park, but I don't think Goldy will be negatively impacted. However, his K% has been increasing and his BB% has been decreasing over the past few seasons. On the bright side, he still had an excellent wRC+ and his hard% was a career-high.

 

A large part of that K% damage was done in those first two awful months when he seemed to be pressing like crazy with the new environment he was in. Once we got past May he returned to a much more tolerable rate and 2nd half was only at 23% K rate. The walk rate was down to 12.5% in the same period but thats still gonna be one of the better OBP guys in the league. 

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I thought Goldy would have fetched a bit more and I really like Weaver.

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It's just one year of Goldy. That has value, but next year STL is probably looking for a replacement while the Snakes have at least one cost controlled starter and maybe more. And 1B might feel scarce in fantasy, but most teams have plenty of guys who can soak up PAs there. Look at Cron getting let go by TB despite a good year. He latched on in the MIN, but not every team has a hole to fill there, and even for STL it means moving Carp off and taking a defensive hit. 

 

Goldschmidt is great, but for one year the return seems about right.

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Even as a rental I would have wanted more personally.  This is especially bad to me because The Winter meetings are right around the corner.  I get it if you want to hedge your bet and trade Goldy before spring training starts.  But why trade him before you even let a market develop at the winter meetings.  Goldy's value isn't going anywhere over the next few weeks so why not shop him around a little more or demand a little more?  

 

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30 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

But why trade him before you even let a market develop at the winter meetings.

 

We're already having a similar discussion over in the Hot Stove thread so let's take it over there, since your position seems to be less about Goldy in particular and more about players solving a collective action problem.

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40 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

We're already having a similar discussion over in the Hot Stove thread so let's take it over there, since your position seems to be less about Goldy in particular and more about players solving a collective action problem.

 

Actually my response here was solely on Goldy ... You are merging two discussions in here.

Edited by FouLLine
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7 hours ago, dzemens said:

 

A large part of that K% damage was done in those first two awful months when he seemed to be pressing like crazy with the new environment he was in. Once we got past May he returned to a much more tolerable rate and 2nd half was only at 23% K rate. The walk rate was down to 12.5% in the same period but thats still gonna be one of the better OBP guys in the league. 

 

He went into a major slump at the end of the season too.  Most of September as I recall.  I at least remember having to replace him with Luke Voit for quite awhile at the end in the dynasty league I own Goldy in as he became totally useless to me during my playoffs and spent that whole time on my bench while Luke helped win me the championship.  I kept wondering what was causing that slump.  If he figured something out after the early one did he forget it in September of was there some injury he was hiding. 

 

So that late slump is more worrisome for me.  He climbed out of the start of the season mega-slump but then went back down the rabbit hole at the end.  That may well have hurt his value.  I still think Arizona could have gotten more but the ending to the season did ding up his value some I think.

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46 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

He went into a major slump at the end of the season too.  Most of September as I recall.  I at least remember having to replace him with Luke Voit for quite awhile at the end in the dynasty league I own Goldy in as he became totally useless to me during my playoffs and spent that whole time on my bench while Luke helped win me the championship.  I kept wondering what was causing that slump.  If he figured something out after the early one did he forget it in September of was there some injury he was hiding. 

 

So that late slump is more worrisome for me.  He climbed out of the start of the season mega-slump but then went back down the rabbit hole at the end.  That may well have hurt his value.  I still think Arizona could have gotten more but the ending to the season did ding up his value some I think.

 

 

.273 with a .790 OPS for September/October. Im sure there were better options out there but he didnt go down the same path he started the year on. 

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goldy actually started the season better than he ended it.

mar/apr - 119 PA

sept/oct - 99 PA

it was May that killed fantasy owners

image.png.7e831451cc33dedd65c6928175107492.png

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Damn, that May was so bad...so bad.

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Even with an uneven season, Gold is in a good spot now with a division having fewer stark pitcher's parks.  He still looks like a guy who will get perhaps 6 years either with the birds or on the market next season.  As noted his hard contact is great and k rate has normalized.  Often when sluggers start losing contact and suffer greater whiff percentages in the zone it's a sign of likely decline which isn't really evident here.  I could see him getting 6 years @ $175ish and probably more with a .95x OPS season.

 

Good timing for the Birds to salvage value on those 3 prospects which weren't needed on the big league level as Yadi appears almost ageless.  Weaver deserves another chance to start on a big league club, which he will now get so he can develop his 3rd and 4th pitches.  

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On 12/12/2018 at 9:09 AM, bigbluecrew56 said:

Interested to see how far he falls in drafts this year. I'm ready to finally buy at the right price. 

If he's still there after pick #15, you're good to go.

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6 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

If he's still there after pick #15, you're good to go.

 

Yeah wow I can't believe how much Goldy's stock has fallen but there's just that many good young players in the game right now.

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1 hour ago, FouLLine said:

 

Yeah wow I can't believe how much Goldy's stock has fallen but there's just that many good young players in the game right now.

 

I  mean it's not just that. It's a fantasy game and his Steals have fallen off a cliff. And unlike his power and ability as a hitter, I don't think as an aging First Baseman that it is crazy he just might be done doing 20 SBs. He's gone from 32 to 18 to 7 the last three years. Going into last year his three year average was still 23-24 SBs. His average is still pretty high, but given the trend as someone who does projections I'll have Goldschmidt down at the 8-12 range and not that 23-24 range, and that's a HUGE difference in the player evaluation. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

I  mean it's not just that. It's a fantasy game and his Steals have fallen off a cliff. And unlike his power and ability as a hitter, I don't think as an aging First Baseman that it is crazy he just might be done doing 20 SBs. He's gone from 32 to 18 to 7 the last three years. Going into last year his three year average was still 23-24 SBs. His average is still pretty high, but given the trend as someone who does projections I'll have Goldschmidt down at the 8-12 range and not that 23-24 range, and that's a HUGE difference in the player evaluation. 

ya, i agree but 1b seems to be more shallow than usual.  i dont think its crazy to take him or FF in the 2nd half of the 2nd round. especially if you can pair him with one of the top 4 or 5 guys who are all 20+ or 30+ sb guys

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