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AnonymousRob

Walker Buehler 2019 Outlook

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Is this guy moving into the Kluber/Scherzer tier this year, or will his lack of innings upside and relative inexperience keep him from breaking through?

 

Last year he pitched 153 innings in the majors and minors. He pitched to a 2.62 era (3.31 SIERRA). 

 

Steamer projects him to pitch 163 innings this year with a 3.29 era. 

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If the Dodgers take away his inning restrictions I see no reason why he couldn't take the next step to elite status as soon as this year.  I love what he brings to the table and he finished the year strong and was exceptional in the playoffs as well.  He was even better than his overall season line if you take away that one blunder he has at the end of June when they rushed him off the dl without any rehab appearances and gave up 5 runs in an inning of work before being placed right back on the dl.  Even if it was just to cap his innings and give him some rest, the rust showed. He is an ace on the rise.

Edited by 2Balls1Bat
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Rock solid ace. 

 

Keeper worthy, no ? 

 

Kid has the makings of a great. 

 

Aquire and enjoy. 

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14 hours ago, 2Balls1Bat said:

If the Dodgers take away his inning restrictions I see no reason why he couldn't take the next step to elite status as soon as this year.

That's the big question, though. With Arizona taking a step back Colorado should be their only threat to the division. If their plethora of arms can stay healthy, they may have zero need to remove his innings limit. 

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2 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

That's the big question, though. With Arizona taking a step back Colorado should be their only threat to the division. If their plethora of arms can stay healthy, they may have zero need to remove his innings limit. 

Colorado could be good enough to push for the division next year and the Padres could also be a team on the rise.   I also wouldn't completely rule out the Giants they usually find a way to hang in there and compete with a lack luster roster as they did win 3 World Series that way. Granted they had better starting pitching those years, but the off season is still young and stranger things have happened in baseball.  

 

Also, limiting buehlers inning limit could also hinder his future development as we've seen in other young pitchers who were coddled by their teams.  It's still a firm possibility that they won't let him take the leap to 200+ innings regardless if there is competition in the division or not given the current organizations current shift toward s more analytical approach which could prevent buehler from taking the next step to elite status this season in terms of fantasy output, but unless they come out right say that he will be on an inning limit this season, I think the possibility will remain that if they need him to pitch as the season unfolds, he will.

 

I personally believe in Nolan Ryan's philosophy of letting young pitchers pitch with no restrictions and build up arm strength and conditioning.  Putting restrictions on young pitchers usually does more bad then good in terms of developement and can even mess with a pitchers confidence .  There is also little to no evidence that the innings restriction approach helps with preventing future injuries and just as much evidence can be provided for the opposite and also that inning limits can lead to injuries among other complications.  There are plenty of pitchers who have gone down the restriction path and it still led to arm and shoulder issues.  The younger you are the more your body can handle and recuperate. Organizations will never admit it but I think the approach has more to do with future financials through arbitration than actually protecting their pitchers.

 

 

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Probably won't pitch enough innings to be elite. I saw stat somewhere that the amount of Dodgers starters over last few years that pitch enough innings for ERA title is ridiculously low. If they have a loose stool... they're hitting the DL.

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX

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17 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Probably won't pitch enough innings to be elite. I saw stat somewhere that the amount of Dodgers starters over last few years that pitch enough innings for ERA title is ridiculously low. If they have a loose stool... they're hitting the DL.

Yeah they've had the depth to play the DL game as well as anyone. 

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I consider him a P1 - to me push comes to shove in a draft I would rather have him as the No.1 on my staff than Severino, Carrasco, Thor (health reasons), and maybe Bauer.   Dodgers obviously stretch their guys a bit, in terms of having a lot of starters, they all seem to miss some starts here and there, but if he can put up 28+ starts with elite Ratio, I think he will have 200+ K's.  

 

He was really good down the stretch, which I think was a good sign.  made 5 starts the last month with some of those going into the 8th inning, the fact the Dodgers were willing to let him go 6+ in every one of those starts I think bodes well for what we can expect workload wise in 2019

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I'm a Dodgers fan and think re-signing Kershaw was great. That being said I think I would draft Buehler over him. 

 

same.  im actually thinking about making buehler an SP1 on at least 1 redraft team this year.  going hitters in the first 3 rounds and then getting him in the 4th.

 

just concerned about innings limit...

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25 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

same.  im actually thinking about making buehler an SP1 on at least 1 redraft team this year.  going hitters in the first 3 rounds and then getting him in the 4th.

 

just concerned about innings limit...

I think this is a great strategy. With the bats you can grab higher up, Buehler is a great grab to anchor your staff. I’m a bit concerned with innings as well but I really don’t think it ends up being a huge issue. Very few guys are 200+ inning workhouses these days and he’s going to be elite when on the mound. 

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On 12/8/2018 at 10:54 AM, AnonymousRob said:

That's the big question, though. With Arizona taking a step back Colorado should be their only threat to the division. If their plethora of arms can stay healthy, they may have zero need to remove his innings limit. 

I don't see any reason for them to continue with an innings limit though.  Even last year, they had one, but the 177 innings he pitched last season including postseason had to have been more than they originally planned.  They needed him more than they thought they would, so he already got plenty of innings under his belt so he shouldn't need one again.  Granted I don't believe anybody needs one outside of people coming back from a major injury, but that's another story.

Anyways, while the division wouldn't be as competitive as it was last season, it would be beyond babying Buehler if they worried about his innings this season.  Now, if he does show signs of wearing down late in the season, then I can see them shutting him down for a bit until the playoffs.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I can see Buehler flirting with Top 10 SP value already this season, and that is because I think he will get around 190 innings or so.  He's my SP3 in my keeper league (I have Kluber and Bauer as well), but I would have no issues drafting Buehler and expecting SP1 value.

Edited by KilloWertz

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I think he'll  give you a pretty effective 180 Innings pitched this year max. I think LA keeps another 20 possibly 30 innings pitched for playoff ball. I could see him as being a possible top 10 pitcher in an Innings limit league especially. Keeper gem, obv. He won't be Clayton Kershaw,  but this guy has years of future sp1 value written all over him,  maybe already, provided he stays healthy.

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I think he overtakes Kershaw as the legit Ace of the club...maybe even as soon as this year.

The future is bright for this kid.

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