ST. STEVEN

Josh James 2019 Outlook

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Probably one of my fav pitchers going into the 2019 season. Late bloomer, that breezed his way through the upper minors after he corrected a health issue and his stuff ticked up across the board. Huge velo, but a lot of other attributes to like. Has a solid shot at grabbing one of the vacant rotation spots for Stros.

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Agree, really can't envision him being pushed out of the rotation. Who is going to beat him, Brad Peacock?

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Losing Morton removes any uncertainty for me.  Probably on an innings limit in the 140-160 range, so more appealing in shallower formats where the replacement value is higher.  I think he'd have been a better draft day value if he were on the bubble, but he seems locked in as a wide awake sleeper that's going to climb toward the top 150, if not the low triple digits.

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4 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Losing Morton removes any uncertainty for me.  Probably on an innings limit in the 140-160 range, so more appealing in shallower formats where the replacement value is higher.  I think he'd have been a better draft day value if he were on the bubble, but he seems locked in as a wide awake sleeper that's going to climb toward the top 150, if not the low triple digits.

I like that wide awake sleeper expression. I agree he’s going to be very popular come draft day. If he has a big spring and locks up a rotation spot, everyone will be on him.  If not, he’s an early candidate to be on all my teams.

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Wide awake sleeper status really cuts profits it competitive leagues the closer to opening day your draft is.

 

I agree he's in the rotation. They could even sign or trade for a good pitcher and he still is. They lost mccullers, Morton and probably Keuchel. I know McHugh is probably a candidate for rotation, there's room for both and another with Verlander and Cole as the others.

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Yeah, the Astros' offseason moves seem to suggest they aren't worried about SP and he has to be a reason why.  A lot of pundits have zeroed in on him, so I agree he will be a popular sleeper that ups his draft stock. 

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On ‎12‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 8:31 PM, brockpapersizer said:

Wide awake sleeper status really cuts profits it competitive leagues the closer to opening day your draft is.

 

I agree he's in the rotation. They could even sign or trade for a good pitcher and he still is. They lost mccullers, Morton and probably Keuchel. I know McHugh is probably a candidate for rotation, there's room for both and another with Verlander and Cole as the others.

just spec added him in my dynasty league, worth a shot

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Read last year where he had/has sleep apnea.  Had that problem tended to before last season and results on the field have improved

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On 12/22/2018 at 8:57 AM, kidtwentytwo said:

Read last year where he had/has sleep apnea.  Had that problem tended to before last season and results on the field have improved

 

You didn’t watch the ALCS where they mentioned it 10,000 times?

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2 hours ago, apap414 said:

 

You didn’t watch the ALCS where they mentioned it 10,000 times?

 

No

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Got him at 171 in a dynasty league draft. Would’ve waited longer but there was a long gap before I picked again and wasn’t sure if he’d make it to 200. 

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Seems like most agree that he’s good and he’ll have a rotation spot. What kind of numbers do you expect and how high would you draft him?

 

He probably can’t replicate what he did in a small MLB sample in 2018 over a full season. Those were ace-type numbers. But his stuff is really good and 10+ K/9 seems doable. Pitching for the Astros helps both in terms of run support and great coaching.

 

Big question is control. His walk rate was around 4 in the minors, and he admitted he struggles to repeat his mechanics. Seems fixable but there’s definitely a risk he’ll struggle with walks and not be able to go deep into games. Worst case he ends up in the pen.

 

Steamer projects a 10.21 K/9, 3.88 BB/9 and ERA a shade under 4 in 128 IP. While projection systems are likely to struggle with a surprise minor league breakout at 25, that actually seems like a reasonable starting point. I’d probably pay for something like that and if he keeps the walks down he could potentially be an SP2.

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137+IP last year...so I think he could be allowed to go around 175 or so this year? He will be 26 in March...

The stuff is just awesome, but there has to be concerns about the command going astray from time to time.

Still, working daily with that Stros coaching staff and learning from Verlander and Cole could be very beneficial too.

Great team backing him up and very friendly park to pitch in are icing on the cake.

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Really excited to see how his season goes. His strikeout numbers in the minors last year were utterly insane. He didn't have elite command but when you strike out that many you can live. His command did improve when he got to the MLB.

I think he will be tough to own in QS leagues as he will get a lot of games cut short. His high strikeout / iffy command combo is probably going to cause a lot of 4.2 IP 7 K 2 ER kind of days, but overall at the end of the year the numbers should be there. He had 137 innings last year so I don't think they will limit him in the form of an innings cap. If he makes 30 starts I'd expect him to be around 160-170 innings naturally.

As for the rotation, its McHugh, Miley, Peacock, Valdez, James vying for 3 spots. My guess would be McHugh, Miley, James. It would be great if Peacock can beat out Miley, but I think they like him out of bullpen.

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Jake Ciely from the Athletic compares this guys ceiling to a Jake DeGrom.

I'm in.  

Edited by NoHablaIngles

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16 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Jake Ciely from the Athletic compares this guys ceiling to a Jake DeGrom.

I'm in.  

 

I thought it was Salfino that said that. Sounds a little nuts to me. I own a Dynasty share, it's not like I wont be rooting for it. 

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I thought it was Salfino that said that. Sounds a little nuts to me. I own a Dynasty share, it's not like I wont be rooting for it. 

 

Ah, you are right. Nevertheless, a big-time writer with a very strong endorsement. 

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2 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

Ah, you are right. Nevertheless, a big-time writer with a very strong endorsement. 

Im happy it was said,  but I dont trust that particular writer. 

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On 2/15/2019 at 12:45 PM, NoHablaIngles said:

 

Ah, you are right. Nevertheless, a big-time writer with a very strong endorsement. 

Definitely a very strong endorsement, although deGrom wasn't considered to have a ceiling of deGrom when he came up. ;)

Seriously though, I'll echo brock and say it's nice to see somebody say that, but we also shouldn't let expectations get out of hand.  He's a definite target for me to round out my rotation (with obvious upside for more).  I would be thrilled to get him, as long as he wins a rotation spot as expected of course.

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If  Eno Sarris or like Ron Shandler said this is the sort of type of player who could be the next Degrom, and checks all the similar boxes, I'd listen.  I think one of my best attributed as a fantasy player is to listen to all the talking heads, determine who has the best process, and see where some interesting information can translate into something actionable on my end (like to trade for in Dynasty or move up my redraft board).  

Salfino says a lot of things and doesn't take any responsibility when he's wrong. I'm rather bothered the Athletic hired him.  I actually do like Josh James a decent amount (I drafted him in a dynasty startup this year) , but it's super hard to project anyone into the Ace tier who isn't.  Someone like Forrest Whitley is probably at the top of my list of guys who I don't consider an SP1 or borderline SP1 who I think could get there. Even he's maybe at 50% best case scenario, James is considerably lower. 

I get that Josh James has come out of nowhere and his numbers last year were fantastic. He's shown inability to keep his command up through a game so far, and that leads me to believe he might be a guy who could get less QS than we typically like from a top tier starter. Might be a lot of 5.1-5.2 IP games. Also if we're just looking at his major league stats from 2019, the 90% LOB is pretty glaring. 

I'm also just bothered by any sort o Degrom comp after the year Degrom just had. This was one of the best pitching years in the last decade. Can we maybe lower the upside bar a bit? 

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I dont think anyone should realistically expect James to have Degroms 2018 season. 

But let me ask you this question: would it surprise you if James put up a 3.50 ERA/FIP while striking out more than 10 per 9?

 

 

 

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59 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

But let me ask you this question: would it surprise you if James put up a 3.50 ERA/FIP while striking out more than 10 per 9?

 

 

 

No, maybe if it was over 200 IP I would  be.  I also dont think asking if you would be surprised by an outcome is particularly helpful. There's a lot of outcomes on a lot of players that wouldn't surprise me.  If you're asking if that's a reasonable projection, probably on the higher end.  Most of the projection systems have him with that k rate but closer to a 4 ERA, so it's not a humungous difference, but does seem more of a top 10-20% outcome than the average.

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7 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

No, maybe if it was over 200 IP I would  be.  I also dont think asking if you would be surprised by an outcome is particularly helpful. There's a lot of outcomes on a lot of players that wouldn't surprise me.  If you're asking if that's a reasonable projection, probably on the higher end.  Most of the projection systems have him with that k rate but closer to a 4 ERA, so it's not a humungous difference, but does seem more of a top 10-20% outcome than the average.

 

The point is that it is a realistic outcome.

 

I am probably higher on James than most. But if he slightly outperforms his projections, he's essentially 2017 DeGrom. 

 

Again, I don't want to get hung-up on the DeGrom comp because it's really meaningless at the end of the day. All I'm saying is that James has huge potential this year and I'm willing to "reach" and take a chance on the ceiling. 

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

If  Eno Sarris or like Ron Shandler said this is the sort of type of player who could be the next Degrom, and checks all the similar boxes, I'd listen.  I think one of my best attributed as a fantasy player is to listen to all the talking heads, determine who has the best process, and see where some interesting information can translate into something actionable on my end (like to trade for in Dynasty or move up my redraft board).  

Salfino says a lot of things and doesn't take any responsibility when he's wrong. I'm rather bothered the Athletic hired him.  I actually do like Josh James a decent amount (I drafted him in a dynasty startup this year) , but it's super hard to project anyone into the Ace tier who isn't.  Someone like Forrest Whitley is probably at the top of my list of guys who I don't consider an SP1 or borderline SP1 who I think could get there. Even he's maybe at 50% best case scenario, James is considerably lower. 

I get that Josh James has come out of nowhere and his numbers last year were fantastic. He's shown inability to keep his command up through a game so far, and that leads me to believe he might be a guy who could get less QS than we typically like from a top tier starter. Might be a lot of 5.1-5.2 IP games. Also if we're just looking at his major league stats from 2019, the 90% LOB is pretty glaring. 

I'm also just bothered by any sort o Degrom comp after the year Degrom just had. This was one of the best pitching years in the last decade. Can we maybe lower the upside bar a bit? 

Not bragging by any means, but I would consider myself fairly successful at fantasy baseball, but I don't really worry about the writers and such as much.  I take it for what it's worth and then draw my own conclusions.  Not saying it's not good to respect some writers.  Just stating we might have a different process with certain things.  Anyways, before I got off track there, I planned on saying I was going to skip over that since I don't have any sports writers I would consider a favorite.

I don't care for the comparison either, although even deGrom himself shouldn't be compared to the season he had.  He will never have that one again because ratios that low for a SP hardly ever happen.

Still, to not get completely off track since I know it's a no-no, I will stick with what I said earlier that I'd be thrilled to get him as part of the backend of my team's rotation and hope for the best.

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Very wide range of outcomes he can have. Is he You Darvish a few years ago stats wise... Or is he gonna be a pen guy. There are lots of guys you can draft around him or even after that can have similar value minus the risk. I won't reach for him. 

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