ST. STEVEN

Josh James 2019 Outlook

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No offense, but why can't he have an ace upside? Is it because he came out of no where? He wasn't on our prospect radars and hyped up for years like other pitching prospects?

 

His fastball was nasty in velocity and movement, having 3 plus pitches. Someone with his stuff usually SHOULD be hyped to moon when he has the starter traits. Ok he's no Whitley, but no one is Whitley.

 

IDC about degroom comp. Think he was going more for the guy who popped out of no where in his mid-20's angle then best season in the last decade angle anyways. It was ceiling comp, Not the mean expectation anywho.

Edited by Slatykamora
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8 hours ago, dkrocka said:

Very wide range of outcomes he can have. Is he You Darvish a few years ago stats wise... Or is he gonna be a pen guy. There are lots of guys you can draft around him or even after that can have similar value minus the risk. I won't reach for him. 

 

He's being picked around 200 overall. Who around him has similar value without risk?

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I don't get the lack of hype either. If this dude was a top prospect heading into last season and did what he did he'd be drafted near inside the top 100 picks. 

Personally, I'd prefer him to a guy like Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, or Miles Mikolas, whose ADP is right around there. 

Fantasy pros aggregates ADP's in the industry, James is listed at #58 SP / #205 overall. The 5 guys before and after him (in order) are

Rich Hill

Jonathan Gray

Alex Reyes

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Jake Arrieta

Josh James

Alex Wood
Zack Godley

Ross Stripling

Kenta Maeda

Joey Lucchesi

 

I'd easily rather have James than all of these guys. I also think it's interesting that 4 Dodgers pitchers are listed here, not that it means much. If I was considering anyone else, it'd be Stripling, but I'm not confident enough in his durability and that he'll stay in the rotation long term (though I haven't dug deep on him). 

No one else here has James floor/upside combo IMO. Pitching on a team that will win a lot, 10+ K/9 guy with good other numbers. 

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6 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

He's being picked around 200 overall. Who around him has similar value without risk?

My draft is in the middle of March. I play in a competitive league. I highly doubt his price won't balloon inside of 150 maybe even 120. I have a few must have pitchers on my list and Castillo is the only one inside of 150 for a keeper/ redraft league. The other 2 are Glasnow and Lopez. 200? Sure, but that's not gonna happen for much longer.

 

Did you mean to say risk, or MLB experience

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Right now he is listed as 5th on the Rotoworld depth chart and the top pitching prospect in all of baseball (Forrest Whitley) is lurking and guys like Framber Valdez could take over if he falters until Whitley come up.  If Houston hadn't picked up Wade Miley in the off season then James would be more secure.  But he has more pressure on him because of that move so he has to perform right out of the gate to prove that last year is who he really is.

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20 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Right now he is listed as 5th on the Rotoworld depth chart and the top pitching prospect in all of baseball (Forrest Whitley) is lurking and guys like Framber Valdez could take over if he falters until Whitley come up.  If Houston hadn't picked up Wade Miley in the off season then James would be more secure.  But he has more pressure on him because of that move so he has to perform right out of the gate to prove that last year is who he really is.

 

He's their third best starter right now. And he's currently slated to be in the rotation. What's the problem? 

 

Risk? Sure, there is risk with every young player. But the positives far outweigh the negatives. I think this is a case of us trying to knitpick and find problems. Just enjoy james, enjoy the ride. He is a well-worth risk

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6 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

I'd easily rather have James than all of these guys. I also think it's interesting that 4 Dodgers pitchers are listed here, not that it means much. If I was considering anyone else, it'd be Stripling, but I'm not confident enough in his durability and that he'll stay in the rotation long term (though I haven't dug deep on him)

No one else here has James floor/upside combo IMO. Pitching on a team that will win a lot, 10+ K/9 guy with good other numbers. 

I'd add Reyes as a pick above him. Injury risks are worrisome with Reyes, but his stuff is elite.Josh would be second choice out of the guys you listed.

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12 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

He's their third best starter right now. And he's currently slated to be in the rotation. What's the problem? 

 

Risk? Sure, there is risk with every young player. But the positives far outweigh the negatives. I think this is a case of us trying to knitpick and find problems. Just enjoy james, enjoy the ride. He is a well-worth risk

 

I certainly like Josh James' upside more then McHugh's but I don't think you can definitely say he is better then Collin since Josh has only pitched 23 innings in the MLB, ever. Collin has much more of a track record with 726 IP, granted he has a career 3.87 ERA.  I definitely don't think anyone is knit picking I think everyone is just trying to be fair and approach with caution. If you can get Josh anywhere close to his current ADP right now you should be very happy cause his cost is likely to increase as we get closer to the start of the season.  

 

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51 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

He's their third best starter right now. And he's currently slated to be in the rotation. What's the problem? 

Risk? Sure, there is risk with every young player. But the positives far outweigh the negatives. I think this is a case of us trying to knitpick and find problems. Just enjoy james, enjoy the ride. He is a well-worth risk

I'm not nitpicking (or kniting) anything.  I'm simply quoting Rotoworld's own depth chart:

Quote

And that is not counting Forrest Whitley's arrival.

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3 hours ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

I'd add Reyes as a pick above him. Injury risks are worrisome with Reyes, but his stuff is elite.Josh would be second choice out of the guys you listed.

I couldn't disagree with this more strongly. Reyes is far too much of a health risk, as well as a risk to end up in the bullpen. 

 

2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

There's a lot of potential, sure. But Miley, Valdez, Armenteros simply don't look as appealing as James. Not only that, Peacock has excelled in a relief role. He has immense value as a multi innings presence in the pen. McCullers is out for the year with TJ. 


I will say that, yes, it's possible he doesn't get a starting job. But, in my opinion, the guy has to be the front runner for the spot and it be his job to lose. 

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I’ve been on the James bandwagon for awhile now, but fully acknowledge there’s a pretty decent bust possibility here. Going as about the 53rd starting pitcher off the board I don’t mind that risk. How many other pitchers are there with  a 200k + upside available  at that point in the draft?

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Bummer. But this will (obv) depress his value (moreso in redraft) and make him a bargain...he can be a big time game changer when he gets his chance yet--imo.

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3 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Bummer. But this will (obv) depress his value (moreso in redraft) and make him a bargain...he can be a big time game changer when he gets his chance yet--imo.

 

Off the board in standard re-drafts. Might have value as a middle reliever. Now the 5th spot is up to Framber Valdez or Brad Peacock.

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I wouldn't draft him in a redraft either. This is the guy who could be a fantastic contributor if/when he is brought up to start during the year, but will probably be a WW pickup.

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14 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Off the board in standard re-drafts. Might have value as a middle reliever. Now the 5th spot is up to Framber Valdez or Brad Peacock.

 

7 minutes ago, jbj said:

I wouldn't draft him in a redraft either. This is the guy who could be a fantastic contributor if/when he is brought up to start during the year, but will probably be a WW pickup.

 

I'm really surprised to come in here and see this consensus. You wouldn't draft Josh James in the last couple rounds of a redraft? 

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Really surprised that a simple quad strain, that apparently still allows him to throw off flat ground, might take him out of a rotation spot this early.

Maybe its worse than it sounds, but I wouldn't over react to this too much based on what we know so far.

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

I'm really surprised to come in here and see this consensus. You wouldn't draft Josh James in the last couple rounds of a redraft? 

Roto i still might,  H2H i might not.  Dead roster spots are killer in h2h. Would depend on if i could dl stash or not.  

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8 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

I'm really surprised to come in here and see this consensus. You wouldn't draft Josh James in the last couple rounds of a redraft? 

Yeah I agree, just prob a bunch of 10-12 team players or something? Which makes sense (depending on roster configs) to wait on hop on him off the wire when he gets his chance to start...shoot even in my 16 team redraft he might not get picked now? This could really be just the Stros having options and wanting to be totally certain he gets over this strain, plus a mechanism to be sure that he stays around a reasonable IP structure--and he's fully available for Sept/playoffs? Just guessing, obviously, but in dynasty I'd try and use it as an excuse to get a deal maybe?

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19 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

I'm really surprised to come in here and see this consensus. You wouldn't draft Josh James in the last couple rounds of a redraft? 

 

7 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah I agree, just prob a bunch of 10-12 team players or something? Which makes sense (depending on roster configs) to wait on hop on him off the wire when he gets his chance to start...shoot even in my 16 team redraft he might not get picked now? This could really be just the Stros having options and wanting to be totally certain he gets over this strain, plus a mechanism to be sure that he stays around a reasonable IP structure--and he's fully available for Sept/playoffs? Just guessing, obviously, but in dynasty I'd try and use it as an excuse to get a deal maybe?

 

I do play in daily 12 teamers, if you would like that caveat, so in that sort of format it is very impractical to use bench spaces for players without certain timetables. Prospects who will likely get the call in the first month are absolutely worth it, but if James doesn't have a spot out of ST then it is entirely possible he couldn't make a start in the first few months of the season, nor have the security to keep a spot even if he gets a spot start. There is no sense to draft him until there are more impending signs of production.

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1 minute ago, jbj said:

 

 

I do play in daily 12 teamers, if you would like that caveat, so in that sort of format it is very impractical to use bench spaces for players without certain timetables. Prospects who will likely get the call in the first month are absolutely worth it, but if James doesn't have a spot out of ST then it is entirely possible he couldn't make a start in the first few months of the season, nor have the security to keep a spot even if he gets a spot start. There is no sense to draft him until there are more impending signs of production.

 

I disagree. Maybe it comes down to a philosophical distinction. But we'll gain information as time goes on, and if I'm going into a draft today, James' current price compared where it was is worth it just to take in the last round and hold into the season just to get more information. I go into drafts with the logic that the last few SPs I draft have a high likelihood of being thrown back to the wire at some point, so that I can chase the available players I see that I believe in. I'll draft James over a litany of other late round arms. If the worst case scenario is I get nothing, see no positive signs, and drop him in three weeks, so be it. That risk is worth the reward of 4+ Months of James on that team. 

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21 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

This could really be just the Stros having options and wanting to be totally certain he gets over this strain, plus a mechanism to be sure that he stays around a reasonable IP structure--and he's fully available for Sept/playoffs? Just guessing, obviously, but in dynasty I'd try and use it as an excuse to get a deal maybe?

I like this line of thought.  Only had 137 IP last year, so they might value him more as a starter late in the year.

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25 minutes ago, taobball said:

I'm really surprised to come in here and see this consensus. You wouldn't draft Josh James in the last couple rounds of a redraft? 

 

Its more so uncertainty at this point. The fact they are immediately taking him out of consideration tells me this is a serious injury. Maybe in 2-3 weeks we will have more information.

As of now, will I consider him one of my last picks, sure, but he won't be a priority. In a heavy DL league he may get more consideration. But as of now he looks likely to be an unproven middle reliever who will start the year on the DL. Stashing him for months waiting for him to start is costly in shallow bench leagues. Plus if they want to stretch him out after being a reliever he likely will need a few starts in the minors to get ready. All in all, just too much uncertainty here, but like I said maybe some of this gets cleared up by most drafts.

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