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Shohei Ohtani 2019 Outlook

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He's a DND for me. He was already an injury risk before he pitched an inning and sure enough he was an injury case most of the yr last yr. 

 

Another guy with stuff that's too good for the human body to accommodate for long.

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15 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

He's a DND for me. He was already an injury risk before he pitched an inning and sure enough he was an injury case most of the yr last yr. 

 

Another guy with stuff that's too good for the human body to accommodate for long.

 

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Won’t be ready opening day

 

So looking like he won’t be ready for opening day.  How many games can he realistically play this year between late start and them wanting to protect him somewhat while rehabbing from TJS?

 

I play in a league where he is 1 player and we set lineups weekly.  I was thinking he might have more value in that format this year than any other since you could set him at DH and forget, but questioning that now.  Also got me thinking that he is so much more valuable in daily vs weekly leagues for keeper leagues.  Curious how far apart you would rank him in keeper for daily vs weekly leagues?

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So how are we valuing Ohtani now? Is he still worth drafting after pick 200, or is he a guy you're steering clear of now? 

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On 1/23/2019 at 9:18 AM, Flyman75 said:

 

Yeah, I'm trying to figure him out, too. I also have him as a cheap keeper (20th round out of 30 rounds), but I don't see trading him as an option. I think trading him at this point, even as a cheap keeper, would simply be pennies on the dollar, and I'm not willing to do that. Whether I keep him or not is another matter, but I'm not going to trade him cheaply. I do think he's a star...but I think he's going to be a part-time star. Simply by virtue of the fact that he'll have to take days off to rehab his elbow, he won't be a 150-game guy, even at DH. If he gets a couple of days off every week (as adifazio suggested), then hoping for more than 120 games will be futile. 


So if we're looking at 120 games as a max, what kind of numbers does he produce? For me, I'm thinking we're looking at 23-26 HR, 70-75 RBI/R. The SBs are up in the air. 

 

Sounds like Kyle Schwarber.

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7 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

So how are we valuing Ohtani now? Is he still worth drafting after pick 200, or is he a guy you're steering clear of now? 

 

Steering clear unless he falls more in drafts and I can stash him on the DL. A DH only guy coming off of surgery with no ETA?  I don’t want any part of that.  

 

still a keeper league gem though.  

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Knowing that he'll probably miss a minimum of 30 games to start the season, where does this news place Ohtani's overall value for leagues as a hitter? 

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12 minutes ago, Jub Jub said:

Knowing that he'll probably miss a minimum of 30 games to start the season, where does this news place Ohtani's overall value for leagues as a hitter? 

I am more concerned about a timeshare with bour or pujols at DH when he gets healthy. He hit .222 vs left against .313 vs right.

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8 minutes ago, tekashi26ix said:

I am more concerned about a timeshare with bour or pujols at DH when he gets healthy. He hit .222 vs left against .313 vs right.

 

Yeah after last season I was all in on expecting Ohtani to hit 30+ HR's and steal lots of bases in 2019. But it's seeming very unlikely now.

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17 minutes ago, Jub Jub said:

 

Yeah after last season I was all in on expecting Ohtani to hit 30+ HR's and steal lots of bases in 2019. But it's seeming very unlikely now.

Maybe bour and pujols split time at first at which point that goal  is still possible

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59 minutes ago, Jub Jub said:

Knowing that he'll probably miss a minimum of 30 games to start the season, where does this news place Ohtani's overall value for leagues as a hitter? 

This makes him just a late round pick at this point. Who knows if May turns into June and then into July. We've seen that happen to multiple players multiple times. 

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55 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

This makes him just a late round pick at this point. Who knows if May turns into June and then into July. We've seen that happen to multiple players multiple times. 

 

They'll be super cautious with him as he's still recovering from TJS. Not sure if he will be stealing bases at as high a rate due to the injury as well. Or maybe they will force him to slide feet first (not sure if he slides head first but that would seem problematic).

 

As for the platoon, Bour can't hit lefties either, and Pujols will need a lot of rest / he isn't very good, so I would think Ohtani gets the lion's share of ABs. Given this, I probably won;t own him on any team. Just sounds like a frustrating player to own. First you wait a month for injury, then the're risk he's set back or has dminished ability, then the fact that he might not be an every day player, and he's also only UTIL eligible. Would only take as a last round type of flyer personally, so i won't end up with any shares.

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9 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

They'll be super cautious with him as he's still recovering from TJS. Not sure if he will be stealing bases at as high a rate due to the injury as well. Or maybe they will force him to slide feet first (not sure if he slides head first but that would seem problematic).

 

As for the platoon, Bour can't hit lefties either, and Pujols will need a lot of rest / he isn't very good, so I would think Ohtani gets the lion's share of ABs. Given this, I probably won;t own him on any team. Just sounds like a frustrating player to own. First you wait a month for injury, then the're risk he's set back or has dminished ability, then the fact that he might not be an every day player, and he's also only UTIL eligible. Would only take as a last round type of flyer personally, so i won't end up with any shares.

I agree with this. I went from being an Ohtani believer this year as a hitter to thinking, "ehhhh...no thanks." I can keep him as a 20th rd keeper, and I think that's too early, LOL. My bias against him, however, is the potential for setbacks. I've had too many players in the past that I took a shot on in the draft (knowing they'd start on the DL) thinking they'd be ready within a month...only to have player after player suffer setbacks and sitting on my DL far longer than I anticipated. And when they did come back, they were a shell of the player I thought I was drafting.

In my mind, Ohtani has already had a setback because when he had the surgery, it was done immediately after the season with the belief that he'd be ready to hit by OD. And that's not the case, so I'm probably just steering clear of him. 

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On 2/2/2019 at 5:26 AM, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Steering clear unless he falls more in drafts and I can stash him on the DL. A DH only guy coming off of surgery with no ETA?  I don’t want any part of that.  

 

still a keeper league gem though.  

 

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What about in Yahoo leagues where he's two players (batter/pitcher). Which version of Ohtani will be more valuable long term?

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18 minutes ago, twistedude said:

What about in Yahoo leagues where he's two players (batter/pitcher). Which version of Ohtani will be more valuable long term?

Define long term.  The hitter is certainly a safer pick.  The pitcher version still has a long way to go past injury,  and then we get to see how long it takes to get back into form after that.  All while risking more injury while batting and running etc. 

 

There's too many variables to do more than guess imo.  Unknown and hard to project number of PAs on the hitting side,  and a nice long wait on the pitching side.  If there's a guy enamored with him in a league,  he might just be best dealt in a trade for a more certain asset. 

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52 minutes ago, twistedude said:

What about in Yahoo leagues where he's two players (batter/pitcher). Which version of Ohtani will be more valuable long term?

 

The pitcher version will not throw a pitch this year after undergoing TJS in offseason. The hitter will probably miss a few weeks then be fine but plate appearances is a huge question. Angels have a log jam at 1B/DH with Bour, Pujols, and Ohtani. 

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35 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

Define long term. 

The next 3+ seasons.

I still think Ohtani could have a very productive year with the bat, although I may be biased because the one game I saw him in person last year, he went 4-5 with 2 HR and a SB vs the Indians. I think he's equally talented as a hitter as he is a pitcher.

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11 minutes ago, twistedude said:

The next 3+ seasons.

I still think Ohtani could have a very productive year with the bat, although I may be biased because the one game I saw him in person last year, he went 4-5 with 2 HR and a SB vs the Indians. I think he's equally talented as a hitter as he is a pitcher.

I happen to think he'll beat out albert for the majority of the PAs, but it's really a guess.  Angels haven't been known for making the best decisions.  So I'd say the hitter is worth more.  We have all of this year and probably a babied year after to see what the pitcher can do.  

 

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For those of us skeptical about competing this year, where would you rank Ohtani as a keeper for 2020. 

I am still concerned about returning from TJS and minimized hitting during rehab. 

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Am I crazy in that I do not understand why this guy is not available as a hitter in Yahoo?  It's a dynasty where the owner only has to control either pitcher or hitter roster slot but only the pitcher option is available.  Am I missing something??  Is it because he's DH only and our league doesn't have UT spots? 

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1 minute ago, tsh00k said:

Am I crazy in that I do not understand why this guy is not available as a hitter in Yahoo?  It's a dynasty where the owner only has to control either pitcher or hitter roster slot but only the pitcher option is available.  Am I missing something??  Is it because he's DH only and our league doesn't have UT spots? 

 

It must be because y'all dont have UT spots.   He's available in all of my Yahoo leagues but he is a UTIL player.

 

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5 hours ago, tsh00k said:

Am I crazy in that I do not understand why this guy is not available as a hitter in Yahoo?  It's a dynasty where the owner only has to control either pitcher or hitter roster slot but only the pitcher option is available.  Am I missing something??  Is it because he's DH only and our league doesn't have UT spots

Yes this is why.  He's not eligible anywhere else, you couldn't put him in anywhere.  If he gets 5 starts/10 appearances at 1B he should pop back up in player pool.  

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On 3/1/2019 at 10:38 AM, twistedude said:

What about in Yahoo leagues where he's two players (batter/pitcher). Which version of Ohtani will be more valuable long term?

Ohtani (Pitcher) was always assumed to be far more valuable.  And if he comes back from TJ like a lot of other players he still will be. 

However because he is still active as a hitter when he comes off the DL in the spring he will be a nightmare for dynasty owners because they then have to carry Ohtani (Pitcher) (love the terminology Yahoo uses, hah) on their active roster taking up a precious slot there for at least the rest of this season since they can't just stick him into a DL slot for the year like any other good pitcher out with TJ.  He was already dropped in a 16 team dynasty league I'm in.  Maybe a bottom feeder team in major rebuild mode will take him in the mini re-draft but I sure won't.

 

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