Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Sleepers / Value Picks

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Kind of a longshot but I really like Oberg to get saves if Wade Davis craps out. Oberg is their best RHP in that bullpen and is basically free in drafts.

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I have a 498 NFBC ADP, but look how good I am.

 

2019 Projections (min 70 innings):

Steamer: 3.52 ERA (16th overall); 1.16 WHIP (11th overall)

the Bat: 3.58 ERA (26th overall); 1.15 WHIP (18th overall)

 

I have nothing left to prove in the minors, my name is Chris Paddack.

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4 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

I have a 498 NFBC ADP, but look how good I am.

 

2019 Projections (min 70 innings):

Steamer: 3.52 ERA (16th overall); 1.16 WHIP (11th overall)

the Bat: 3.58 ERA (26th overall); 1.15 WHIP (18th overall)

 

I have nothing left to prove in the minors, my name is Chris Paddack.

Yeah he was absurdly good last year--esp with his command/control coming off TJS!

I am not sure how much good it will do him to deal with the PCL, being that it is so hitter friendly, but maybe some adversity would not be the worst?

My concerns --like most-- is the development of the secondaries beyond that ultimate FB/CH combo...the CU does flash from time to time, but needs more consistency...he can still be plenty successful as a 2 pitch guy (because they are both 65 to70's).

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5 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah he was absurdly good last year--esp with his command/control coming off TJS!

I am not sure how much good it will do him to deal with the PCL, being that it is so hitter friendly, but maybe some adversity would not be the worst?

My concerns --like most-- is the development of the secondaries beyond that ultimate FB/CH combo...the CU does flash from time to time, but needs more consistency...he can still be plenty successful as a 2 pitch guy (because they are both 65 to70's).

 

No clue how to project his playing time, but I think this is a possible logical outcome IMO. The Padres didn't care about gaining an extra year of control with Joey Lucchesi, but I think they will with Paddack. So, give him 3-4 starts in AAA, then promote him at the end of April to replace anyone not named Lucchesi as you figure Paddack will probably only throw around 120 innings this year. With limited bullets, it's best to expose him to MLB hitters because that's the best teacher, no need to waste those limited bullets.

 

Like you said, curve ball will determine if he can take it to another level. Just shocking how good they project him to be as a two pitch pitcher. If he does get to a consistently average curve ball, jeez.

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21 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

No clue how to project his playing time, but I think this is a possible logical outcome IMO. The Padres didn't care about gaining an extra year of control with Joey Lucchesi, but I think they will with Paddack. So, give him 3-4 starts in AAA, then promote him at the end of April to replace anyone not named Lucchesi as you figure Paddack will probably only throw around 120 innings this year. With limited bullets, it's best to expose him to MLB hitters because that's the best teacher, no need to waste those limited bullets.

 

Like you said, curve ball will determine if he can take it to another level. Just shocking how good they project him to be as a two pitch pitcher. If he does get to a consistently average curve ball, jeez.

Yeah 90 IP last year...so I could see 4-5 abbreviated starts to begin year in AAA and then if it goes well a jump to bigs?

But no doubt, like you stated, we are looking at a pretty hard cap of 125-130 MAX IP...so prob a better investment in dynasty but quite usable in redraft for when he's pitching too...

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22 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah 90 IP last year...so I could see 4-5 abbreviated starts to begin year in AAA and then if it goes well a jump to bigs?

But no doubt, like you stated, we are looking at a pretty hard cap of 125-130 MAX IP...so prob a better investment in dynasty but quite usable in redraft for when he's pitching too...

They will probably tread lightly - I think its really about 2020 and 2019 will really try to get an assemblance of their pitching in line because there are a lot of names in their system right now.  

 

Lucchesi Lamet and Paddack probably will get some serious run this year, obviously with the last 2 getting some limits due to TJ.   Then still a lot of promise surrounding guys like Lauer, Erlin and Quantrill who are that age should be in the bigs as well. 

 

Then obviously the two prize possessions are Gore and Morejon, both of whom if they take big steps this year could be in the 2020 conversation.  

 

 

 

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Hey guys, what are some players that you're looking at that are going late that could return good value?

 

Marcus Stroman, Tor SP-  A year removed from 201IP and a 3.09 ERA.  His FIP last year was almost identical to his FIP during that solid year.  With a ADP of around 302, I think you're getting huge value here.

 

Kike Hernandez, LAD Everywhere- With an ADP of 353, you can add Kike for cheap and plug him into a number of different spots.  Playing time may be a bit of a concern but there is a lot of promise here.

 

Caleb Smith, Mia SP- Got off to a very promising start to the season before a lat season cut his season short.  Really solid K potential for free.

 

Lewis Brinson, Mia OF-  Had a disappointing year last year but he's locked into an everyday role as a 24 year old with an interesting power/speed combo.  With an ADP of 456 you could probably get him for free in a 16 team league.

 

 

 

 

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All these guys will give you bumps and bruises but in a dynasty or keeper league certainly worth a shot.

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*All ADPs via NFBC*

 

Orlando Arcia (SS -MIL), ADP 382.  Could produce Polanco/Simmons like numbers.

Adam Frazier (2B/OF - PIT), ADP 344.  Solid hitter who could go 15/15.

Hernan Perez (IF/OF - MIL), ADP 390.  Plays literally every position except 1B and C.  Good guy to have on your deep bench.

Pedro Strop (RP - ChC), ADP 314.  Will likely open the year as the Cubs closer and who knows, he could stick with it.

Omar Narvaez (C - SEA), ADP 328.  I already wrote a post about him in the sleepers thread, but I like him a lot this year.

Cedric Mullins (OF - BAL), ADP 335.  Leading off and has a great tool set.

Eduardo Nunez (IF/OF - BOS), ADP 407.  Another swiss-army knife guy.  Played injured a lot last season.

Didi Gregorius (SS - NYY), ADP 368.  Will miss first half of season, then will play regularly in a completely stacked lineup.

 

Even deeper:

Diego Castillo (SP/RP - TB), ADP 520.  If you like slotting RPs into your SP slot for ratio boost, this is your guy.

Chris Paddack (SP - SD), ADP 535.  Has massive skills and will likely start for SD but on an innings limit.

Dustin Pedroia (2B - BOS), ADP 569.  Only in deep points leagues but whenever he's on the field he racks up the hits and walks with no Ks.

Steven Duggar (OF - SFG), ADP 483.  Will likely play full time and lead off for SF.  Has a lot to work on but could return steals and runs.

Kendrys Morales (UTIL - TOR), ADP 509.  Somehow ends up showing well in every power hitting comp I've seen.  He's just always there.

Johnny Cueto (SP - SFG), ADP a million.  May miss the whole year, but there's talk he could return in Sept.  You know, fantasy baseball playoff time.

 

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17 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

*All ADPs via NFBC*

 

Orlando Arcia (SS -MIL), ADP 382.  Could produce Polanco/Simmons like numbers.

Adam Frazier (2B/OF - PIT), ADP 344.  Solid hitter who could go 15/15.

Hernan Perez (IF/OF - MIL), ADP 390.  Plays literally every position except 1B and C.  Good guy to have on your deep bench.

Pedro Strop (RP - ChC), ADP 314.  Will likely open the year as the Cubs closer and who knows, he could stick with it.

Omar Narvaez (C - SEA), ADP 328.  I already wrote a post about him in the sleepers thread, but I like him a lot this year.

Cedric Mullins (OF - BAL), ADP 335.  Leading off and has a great tool set.

Eduardo Nunez (IF/OF - BOS), ADP 407.  Another swiss-army knife guy.  Played injured a lot last season.

Didi Gregorius (SS - NYY), ADP 368.  Will miss first half of season, then will play regularly in a completely stacked lineup.

 

Even deeper:

Diego Castillo (SP/RP - TB), ADP 520.  If you like slotting RPs into your SP slot for ratio boost, this is your guy.

Chris Paddack (SP - SD), ADP 535.  Has massive skills and will likely start for SD but on an innings limit.

Dustin Pedroia (2B - BOS), ADP 569.  Only in deep points leagues but whenever he's on the field he racks up the hits and walks with no Ks.

Steven Duggar (OF - SFG), ADP 483.  Will likely play full time and lead off for SF.  Has a lot to work on but could return steals and runs.

Kendrys Morales (UTIL - TOR), ADP 509.  Somehow ends up showing well in every power hitting comp I've seen.  He's just always there.

Johnny Cueto (SP - SFG), ADP a million.  May miss the whole year, but there's talk he could return in Sept.  You know, fantasy baseball playoff time.

 

Another good list. Interested in Cueto for late '19 and '20. Cedrick Mullins should build great counting stats and if he learns to walk a bit more could be a nice steal.

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Diego Castillo is an interesting one.  I’m targeting Matt Strahm as a RP to slot in a starring spot to help ratios.  Anybody have any other good RP/SP guys?

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^Burnes

Clint Frazier

Ryan Braiser

Carson Kelly

Cory Spandenberg 

Roman Quinn

Dan Altavilla

Alex Gordon

Matt Strahm

Yario Munoz

Freddy Peralta

whoever follows the openers in Tampa 

Josh Staumont

zack Collins 

 

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6 hours ago, Jakersdport said:

Diego Castillo is an interesting one.  I’m targeting Matt Strahm as a RP to slot in a starring spot to help ratios.  Anybody have any other good RP/SP guys?

 

Everything I've seen says Strahm will try for a rotation spot in spring, and I don't see much to stop him from getting it.  I love the guy but am betting that he'll be a starter come opening day.

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Marcus Stroman, Tor SP-  A year removed from 201IP and a 3.09 ERA.  His FIP last year was almost identical to his FIP during that solid year.  With a ADP of around 302, I think you're getting huge value her

 

I don't.  Respectfully, I just think going for Stroman is just wishful thinking and I'm a Jays fan.  He's got 3 of the toughest teams to deal with in an unbalanced schedule.  Red Sox, Yankees, Rays.  The Jays may have some defensive issues and can't be too sure of their pen and run support either.

 

There's one Blue Jay that's worth a deep sleep flier and that's Teoscar Hernandez (Grichuk is not a DEEP sleeper).. He has such easy power.  I recall watching just how many of his hits were long fly balls on the deep warning track or hit the top of the wall for doubles and triples.  Amazingly he had 7 triples and he's not Billy Hamilton.

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1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

I don't.  Respectfully, I just think going for Stroman is just wishful thinking and I'm a Jays fan.  He's got 3 of the toughest teams to deal with in an unbalanced schedule.  Red Sox, Yankees, Rays.  The Jays may have some defensive issues and can't be too sure of their pen and run support either.

 

There's one Blue Jay that's worth a deep sleep flier and that's Teoscar Hernandez (Grichuk is not a DEEP sleeper).. He has such easy power.  I recall watching just how many of his hits were long fly balls on the deep warning track or hit the top of the wall for doubles and triples.  Amazingly he had 7 triples and he's not Billy Hamilton.

 

 

Meh I’d say Grichuk is at least close to being a deep sleeper. I mean the sleeper thread can encompass players like Puig and Villar going in the top 100. Grichuks fantrax ADP is 251. I think that makes him a deep enough sleeper that I wouldn’t belly ache it. 

 

Edit: not saying you were, just saying I’d say Grichuk is fair to call “deep.”

Edited by taobball

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2 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

I don't.  Respectfully, I just think going for Stroman is just wishful thinking and I'm a Jays fan.  He's got 3 of the toughest teams to deal with in an unbalanced schedule.  Red Sox, Yankees, Rays.  The Jays may have some defensive issues and can't be too sure of their pen and run support either.

 

There's one Blue Jay that's worth a deep sleep flier and that's Teoscar Hernandez (Grichuk is not a DEEP sleeper).. He has such easy power.  I recall watching just how many of his hits were long fly balls on the deep warning track or hit the top of the wall for doubles and triples.  Amazingly he had 7 triples and he's not Billy Hamilton.

 

I agree on Stroman, but you have left out one important Blue Jay who is the u.l.t.i.m.a.t.e. deep sleeper.  So ultimate he is ultimately forgotten: Kendrys Morales (1B - TOR).

 

Why Morales, you say?  He's old, boring, and seems to be getting worse each year, you say?  Why would I want a guy that is the equivalent of a full breakfast at a generic diner?  Yawn, you say.

 

But wait.  I was reading this tweet on Max Kepler comparisons (guys who return similar value to Kepler) and lo-and-behold, Morales is there hiding at the bottom!  This is not the first time I've seen Morales chilling in these comps, always at the bottom due to his low ADP.  Then, while I was looking for that tweet again, I came across this article which says everything I was going to say so I'll just link to it.

 

Basically, you can ink our boy in for .250 - 20+ HR - 80+ RBI - 65 R in a full season.  Those numbers are admittedly not interesting but people actually pay money for guys who produce that, while you can get full breakfast for free, like in a hotel.  Just saying.

Edited by En Votto Veritas

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I'm going to throw Jerad Eickhoff out there as kind of a dart throw to keep an eye on in Spring Training.  He was a pretty solid mid-rotation starter when healthy in previous years, and seems to have put his carpal tunnel issues behind him.

 

Right now Roster Resource is projecting him to miss out on a rotation spot, so you probably won't want to draft him except in the deepest of formats, with oft-injured Velasquez and inconsistent Eflin ahead of him, there are plenty of paths to a rotation spot given the consistency Eickhoff showed in 2015 and 2016.

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Grichuk>>>>McKinney/Teoscar.

 

The problem is that you will probably cut Teoscar once you realize McKinney is cutting into his PT. Even if he does start to polish his redic pyshical skills. Itll be the person who picked him off waviers in season that benifits. Not you.

 

I get his appeal but he was a near replacement level player last year and McKinney offers a Joc Pederson kinda upside that the rebuilding jays want to see. Pillar is the CF and Grichuk lead the Jays in WAR last year. So guess who Mckinney is battling for PT with the strong side platoon advatange?

Edited by Slatykamora

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