Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Sleepers / Value Picks

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

I agree on Stroman, but you have left out one important Blue Jay who is the u.l.t.i.m.a.t.e. deep sleeper.  So ultimate he is ultimately forgotten: Kendrys Morales (1B - TOR).

 

Why Morales, you say?  He's old, boring, and seems to be getting worse each year, you say?  Why would I want a guy that is the equivalent of a full breakfast at a generic diner?  Yawn, you say.

 

But wait.  I was reading this tweet on Max Kepler comparisons (guys who return similar value to Kepler) and lo-and-behold, Morales is there hiding at the bottom!  This is not the first time I've seen Morales chilling in these comps, always at the bottom due to his low ADP.  Then, while I was looking for that tweet again, I came across this article which says everything I was going to say so I'll just link to it.

 

Basically, you can ink our boy in for .250 - 20+ HR - 80+ RBI - 65 R in a full season.  Those numbers are admittedly not interesting but people actually pay money for guys who produce that, while you can get full breakfast for free, like in a hotel.  Just saying.

 

KM was one big week away from finishing with a sub 700 OPS.  And there's just no upside.  Sleepers should be all about upside..there is only downside,

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

KM was one big week away from finishing with a sub 700 OPS.  And there's just no upside.  Sleepers should be all about upside..there is only downside,

 

 

I disagree with this general assessment. I think in most drafts you should be putting more premiums on upside, but I don’t think you need a lot of upside to be a sleeper. In a lot of leagues specifically deep leagues you really aren’t going to dominate at every position. At all times you need to at least tread water at a position, especially in a deep league, and undervalued players can help you do that, and IMO be sleepers depending on draft cost. I’m not a large Morales fan, but someone like Yonder Alonso id consider a sleeper, and arguably that’s not one defined by “upside.” If Morales puts up the decent numbers he did in the years prior to 2018, he’ll be a value. And if you think there’s a good chance he does that, no reason for him to not be a sleeper at a nonexistent price. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

KM was one big week away from finishing with a sub 700 OPS.  And there's just no upside.  Sleepers should be all about upside..there is only downside,

 

 

I remember streaming Kendrys Morales the week of August 20th. Morales went on to hit 7 hrs that week and I crushed the #1 team in my weekly H2H. Probably the best week I had all season from any single player.

 

I kind of cheated though. He had 6-games at home, 3 against Baltimore and all versus righties. Baltimore is still on the schedule this year ;)

 

Just saying..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/3/2019 at 4:52 PM, taobball said:

 

I disagree with this general assessment. I think in most drafts you should be putting more premiums on upside, but I don’t think you need a lot of upside to be a sleeper. In a lot of leagues specifically deep leagues you really aren’t going to dominate at every position. At all times you need to at least tread water at a position, especially in a deep league, and undervalued players can help you do that, and IMO be sleepers depending on draft cost. I’m not a large Morales fan, but someone like Yonder Alonso id consider a sleeper, and arguably that’s not one defined by “upside.” If Morales puts up the decent numbers he did in the years prior to 2018, he’ll be a value. And if you think there’s a good chance he does that, no reason for him to not be a sleeper at a nonexistent price. 

 

I will have to agree to disagree on this.  The term "sleeper" has for many years referred to a kind of hidden gem.  The "sleeper hit movie..a movie nobody expected much success from but becomes a box office smash, etc.

 

With Kendrys, you know exactly what you're going to get.  He has no speed and medicore plate discipline.  So his upside is rather limited.  You need to bench him most of the time and hope that he heats up in your starting lineup.  There will always be a replacement hitter in all but the deepest leagues.  He's 35 years old and overweight too, an injury risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, KingJoffrey said:

 

I will have to agree to disagree on this.  The term "sleeper" has for many years referred to a kind of hidden gem.  The "sleeper hit movie..a movie nobody expected much success from but becomes a box office smash, etc.

 

With Kendrys, you know exactly what you're going to get.  He has no speed and medicore plate discipline.  So his upside is rather limited.  You need to bench him most of the time and hope that he heats up in your starting lineup.  There will always be a replacement hitter in all but the deepest leagues.  He's 35 years old and overweight too, an injury risk.

 

Sure, but expanding the metaphor, does a movie have to be the best selling movie of all time or have the potential to do that in order to be a sleeper hit? A low-budget movie that makes back 300% is a sleeper hit, even if the Gross is no where near a Star Wars movie. 

 

To me, Sleeper is about ROI. When the level of INVESTMENT is as low as Morales, than there's always a potential return, and the existence of a return makes him a sleeper.

 

And that's more or less the way I see it. If Morales' Investment level was closer to what I theoretically believe he could do, that's one thing. But he offers a pretty large ROI if he produces the .250-.260 and 28-30 HRs with decent RBIs like he did in 2016-2017. And that ROI makes him a sleeper in my book. 

 

Extremely low price essentially makes anyone a sleeper. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The different interpretations of the term sleeper is what makes these threads enjoyable but difficult to navigate. 

 

I do prefer the notion of a hidden gem as opposed to just looking at return on investment. For me that means a guy that not only outperforms his ADP, but also someone I can start consistently. While it's possible Morales reaches those numbers, and thus outperforming his ADP, his pedestrian line would render him as bench material at best, in most leagues. 

 

Again, to each their own. The important thing is that if you tout someone, that you try to explain your reasoning. That is truly helpful in these threads. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Austin Meadows

 

He’s still slated to start in RF for the Rays according to Roster Resource. Steamer projects .265/13hr/12sb but in only 389 at bats. I think he easily exceeds that number considering the health concerns of their other outfielders and that he projects as an every day player entering the season. 

 

I think he has a real shot at a 20/20 season with a .270+ avg. Not bad at his current ADP and I’d be targeting in keeper leagues. He was impressive in his small sample last year.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

 While it's possible Morales reaches those numbers, and thus outperforming his ADP, his pedestrian line would render him as bench material at best, in most leagues. 

 

 

would it? I don’t think he was bench material the last two years (16-17). In fact I remember him being drafted as a UT only in the top 150ish picks in numerous drafts. .255/30/85 wouldn’t be a bench bat, I don’t think. 

 

I mean im not saying he’s a world beater, but he’s a HR/RBI type player that doesn’t kill BA. If you need more HR/RBI production, he may be able to legitimately help your team. 

 

Imo, all late picks are about balance. And you know which picks you’re using on maybe riskier ceiling and which picks you’re using on safer floors. But getting those safer floors is what allows you to take smarter gambles, which is why a player who represents the chance at a stable ROI needs to be a sleeper just as much, personally, because all that matters is net value. If I get the 150th player at pick 350, I have 200 picks of net value. I can’t NOT call that a sleeper. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With Morales, there's probably quite a few guys that went undrafted last year that produced better than he did and actually had a position. Probably the same thing this year. 

 

Just my opinion. I hate DH's unless they are really damn good. If you feel that KM can hit .250, give you 30 HR, and 160 R+RBI then by all means, take him in the late rounds and enjoy the reward. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Deep league darts

 

Trevor Richards very quietly had an elite change up and 9+ k/9.

 

lance lynn and Matt Harvey quietly rebounded after horrendous starts last year.

 

joe “cy” kelly was awesome in playoffs and will be a great pitcher in holds leagues.

 

Christin Stewart has excellent peripherals and will get the playing time. Sneaky good hitter in minors w power and underrated on prospect lists because bad defense.

 

cedric mullins costs very little and is power/speed. Will get a shot. I think he will more likely than not suck but I’m still intrigued.

 

Jerad Eickhoff came back in September and Kd like 7 in a row with a sick uncle Charlie. 

 

Jackie Bradley jr was quietly very good in second half after horrendous start and very efficient stealing bases.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, fawkes_mulder said:

Deep league darts

 

Trevor Richards very quietly had an elite change up and 9+ k/9.

 

lance lynn and Matt Harvey quietly rebounded after horrendous starts last year.

 

joe “cy” kelly was awesome in playoffs and will be a great pitcher in holds leagues.

 

Christin Stewart has excellent peripherals and will get the playing time. Sneaky good hitter in minors w power and underrated on prospect lists because bad defense.

 

cedric mullins costs very little and is power/speed. Will get a shot. I think he will more likely than not suck but I’m still intrigued.

 

Jerad Eickhoff came back in September and Kd like 7 in a row with a sick uncle Charlie. 

 

Jackie Bradley jr was quietly very good in second half after horrendous start and very efficient stealing bases.

 

 

JBJ is a daily league player for me. 

 

Even in the hot stretch you refer to, let's say teh last two months, he hit sub-.200 v. LHP (.182). He also had a DISGUSTING 20 Ks to 3 BBs in 48 PAs, which isn't just an almost 10:1 ratio, but also means he had a 41.7% K% the last two months v. LHP. 

 

I do agree, I think he's a daily league value. But you look at his playoff performance even. Dodgers hit them with an all LH Rotation and when it came down to it, they benched him for games 4 and 5. Now of course those were no-DH games, but I don't think it's entirely unrealistic with the OF-capable JDM at DH and really having a good range OF regardless with Betts and Benintendi, that we see JBJ get even platooned at times potentially. And regardless, the LHP numbers will take a greater toll on his overall numbers I believe in a larger sample. 

 

I do think he can be worth the roster spot, especially as an everyday player, and especially with Boston. Lefties seem to just have gotten better and better against him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep an eye on Yandy Diaz

 

Diaz has strong plate skills (15.8 K%, 9.2 BB% last season). Has good exit velos (44.4 Hard Hit Rate) but an atrocious launch angle (4.4 degrees) . I think the Rays are targeting players with good exit velos but bad launch angles as a market inefficiency. 

 

I'm likely not drafting him outside of an AL only league but a breakout from Diaz would not surprise me. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jesse Winker.

Walked more than he struck out last year.

His career low obp is 375, at any level.

Hit the majority of his home runs toward the tail end of last year. 

Has been hurt the past 2 or 3 years and still raked ba/obp wise. 

Hit 10 home run in 300 minor league abs a few years ago before getting hurt in minors. Now he's healthy.

People are questioning whether Kemp is taking time away from him when it's actually Schebler who will split time.

He's hitting in front of Votto, Suarez, and Puig at Great HR park.

Would you honestly be surprised if he hit 15 home runs and flirted with 120 runs?

Edited by dkrocka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Jesse Winker.

Walked more than he struck out last year.

His career low obp is 375, at any level.

Hit the majority of his home runs toward the tail end of last year. 

Has been hurt the past 2 or 3 years and still raked ba/obp wise. 

Hit 10 home run in 300 minor league abs a few years ago before getting hurt in minors. Now he's healthy.

People are questioning whether Kemp is taking time away from him when it's actually Schebler who will split time.

He's hitting in front of Votto, Suarez, and Puig at Great HR park.

Would you honestly be surprised if he hit 15 home runs and flirted with 120 runs?

 

Where do you see that he's batting 1st or 2nd? RC and RR both have Peraza and Gennett as the 1-2 guys, and RC has Winker batting 6th. RR doesn't have Winker as a starter. If he bats 6th most of the season, he obviously wouldn't come close to 120 runs. And unless he gets 550+ ABs, I don't see him hitting 15 HR. 

 

If he does bat 2nd most of the year and is an everyday starter, I do believe 100+ runs and 15 HR should be a pretty good bet. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Where do you see that he's batting 1st or 2nd? RC and RR both have Peraza and Gennett as the 1-2 guys, and RC has Winker batting 6th. RR doesn't have Winker as a starter. If he bats 6th most of the season, he obviously wouldn't come close to 120 runs. And unless he gets 550+ ABs, I don't see him hitting 15 HR. 

 

If he does bat 2nd most of the year and is an everyday starter, I do believe 100+ runs and 15 HR should be a pretty good bet. 

Does RC realize that Winker's last 45 games include a 348 average with all 7 of his HRs 29BB 22K's and an OPS that cracked 1000?

 

You couldn't make a more protypical leadoff hitter in a science lab, but OFC, RC says Votto-lite and the 2nd best obp with mediocre power belongs in the 6 hole.

 

 

Edited by dkrocka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Winker is coming off Labrum surgery, not the easiest recovery, especially if he's trying to add power.  I do believe he's a stud and will get to the 20+ hr mark in his career, but not sure we'll see a huge power surge this year.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dkrocka said:

Does RC realize that Winker's last 45 games include a 348 average with all 7 of his HRs 29BB 22K's and an OPS that cracked 1000?

 

I don't know man. I'm just telling you what a couple of respected resources show, neither of which show Winker hitting in the top 2. That's why I was asking where you heard that info. If it was from a Reds' beat writer or someone who is close to the franchise in recent days, then I'd typically give more weight to that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll play devil's advocate here. You're the Reds manager. You have a 300/400 hitter on your roster with moderate pop and no base stealing ability. Not only that but he hits the ball HARD  with a low trajectory and uses the whole field. How long before you let him set the table as opposed to getting on base for the pitcher? Sorry to be brazen, but you don't need to be a beat writer to add that up.

 

His career numbers strongly mirror Votto's minus a little pop.

 

Invest in the talent and if he doesn't outright leadoff opening day, it won't be long.

Edited by dkrocka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

I'll play devil's advocate here. You're the Reds manager. You have a 300/400 hitter on your roster with moderate pop and no base stealing ability. Not only that but he hits the ball HARD  with a low trajectory and uses the whole field. How long before you let him set the table as opposed to getting on base for the pitcher? Sorry to be brazen, but you don't need to be a beat writer to add that up.

 

His career numbers strongly mirror Votto's minus a little pop.

 

Invest in the talent and if he doesn't outright leadoff opening day, it won't be long.

 

It's now what you think or I think. It's what Cincy does with their lineup. And who said anything about "needing" a beat writer to add it up. Beat writers gives us insight into what the management is thinking and information about the direction they're heading. I don't "need" a beat writer to add 2+2, but just because I come up with 4 doesn't mean the management will come up with 4. 

 

As for investing, I won't go out of the way to do so. He's a better real-life player than a fantasy player, imho. If I'm the Reds, I'm batting Winker first or second because of his OBP. But as a fantasy owner, I'm not that enamored by him. I would take him at the spot in the draft, but I'm not reaching for him. 

 

In any case, this is the sleeper thread, not the Jesse Winker thread. If I have further comments, I'll make them there :). 

Edited by Flyman75

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, taobball said:

 

JBJ is a daily league player for me. 

 

Even in the hot stretch you refer to, let's say teh last two months, he hit sub-.200 v. LHP (.182). He also had a DISGUSTING 20 Ks to 3 BBs in 48 PAs, which isn't just an almost 10:1 ratio, but also means he had a 41.7% K% the last two months v. LHP. 

 

I do agree, I think he's a daily league value. But you look at his playoff performance even. Dodgers hit them with an all LH Rotation and when it came down to it, they benched him for games 4 and 5. Now of course those were no-DH games, but I don't think it's entirely unrealistic with the OF-capable JDM at DH and really having a good range OF regardless with Betts and Benintendi, that we see JBJ get even platooned at times potentially. And regardless, the LHP numbers will take a greater toll on his overall numbers I believe in a larger sample. 

 

I do think he can be worth the roster spot, especially as an everyday player, and especially with Boston. Lefties seem to just have gotten better and better against him. 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/12/boston_red_sox_of_jackie_bradl_1.html

 

 But around the All-Star Break, Martinez invited Bradley to start working directly with Wallenbrock, Bradford reports. Now that the season is over, Bradley has gone all-in and begun working out in Los Angeles to get the most out of his new approach to hitting.

The early results? Bradley is starting to realize how rough his current approach to the plate actually is.

"This is the first time I heard any of this stuff," said Bradley told Bradford. "What I've been taught my whole life is completely wrong. It's scary to say that, but it's wrong. I feel fortunate enough to make it this far doing it wrong."

Wallenbrock has already worked wonders with Martinez, who was told that his swing "was the worst they'd seen from a major leaguer" when he started working with the coach.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Winker


Just my 2 c's to this particular line-up situation:

 

I don't think we can be confident yet about what the Reds do with Jesse Winker. But while it was obviously not on a full time basis, Winker did lead-off 35 times last year. He hit .321 v. RHP with a .418 OBP. That doesn't necessarily mean he bats near the top. I think he does v. RHP though. 

 

Performance and opportunity for performance v LHP still highly variable to me.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/4/2019 at 11:43 PM, taobball said:

 

Sure, but expanding the metaphor, does a movie have to be the best selling movie of all time or have the potential to do that in order to be a sleeper hit? A low-budget movie that makes back 300% is a sleeper hit, even if the Gross is no where near a Star Wars movie. 

 

To me, Sleeper is about ROI. When the level of INVESTMENT is as low as Morales, than there's always a potential return, and the existence of a return makes him a sleeper.

 

And that's more or less the way I see it. If Morales' Investment level was closer to what I theoretically believe he could do, that's one thing. But he offers a pretty large ROI if he produces the .250-.260 and 28-30 HRs with decent RBIs like he did in 2016-2017. And that ROI makes him a sleeper in my book. 

 

Extremely low price essentially makes anyone a sleeper. 

 

I don't think of KM as a 300% return movie..he's more like a yet another sequel in a beaten down, once good movie franchise.  He's Rambo part 5.  Movie could easily be terrible and bomb and the once great excitement long forgotten.  Yet there should be enough eyeballs on the screen to break even and maybe if the writing and marketing are suprisingly good.. you turn a profit.

 

KM may hit 25-30 Hrs again, maybe but that production needs to be "captured".  Here's what's probably going to happen.  He will go through such a bad slump that a fantasy team benches him and maybe even drops him for a veteran in the middle of a hot streak.  People forget about him but then the Jays play Baltimore and he nails a HR or two..so you pick him up hoping for another hot streak that may or may not materialize. If it doesn't, you drop him, then he unexpectedly has a 3 HR game against the Yankees or Red Sox...capturing his end of the season production will be problematic.

 

That's the general problem with your older veterans not named Nelson Cruz.  Fantasy is not about looking BACK on statistics, its about looking forward.  You aren't BIFF, you don't have the gambling almanac and the time machine.  When a declining veteran slumps, you have no idea if it's due to the decline that all veternas face or if he will rebound.  Better to gamble that 1$ at the start of the season to try to find this year's Snell or Suarez.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

When a declining veteran slumps, you have no idea if it's due to the decline that all veternas face or if he will rebound.  Better to gamble that 1$ at the start of the season to try to find this year's Snell or Suarez.


 

You only have 1 late round draft pick? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Deep league darts

 

cedric mullins costs very little and is power/speed. Will get a shot. I think he will more likely than not suck but I’m still intrigued.

 

 

Why do you say more likely will suck?  I think he is a great name for this forum.  He has always had a good contact rate in the minors, and relatively low K-rate.  Batting leadoff for Baltimore, so will get AB's.  15/15 not out of the question, and could flirt with 20/20 if he gets 600+ PA.  Perfect guy to gamble on late.  I actually think he has a better chance of being good than "likely suck".

 

BrickWall had this to say about him in their top 1000 dynasty rankings:

 

173) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 24.6 – One of the most underrated talented youngsters to recently break into the majors.  The switch hitting Mullins is lightning fast with solid pop and has made good contact his entire career. Buy everywhere. 2019 Projection: 78/14/55/.265/.328/.419/19 Prime Projection: 87/18/61/.281/.342/.440/22

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, taobball said:


 

You only have 1 late round draft pick? 

 

Nope, but the average league may have around 10-15 other teams looking for this year's Snell...A cheap player who finishes in the top 25 player value does more to help a team win then will the difference between Kendrys Morales and some other 1-dimensional veteran 

Edited by KingJoffrey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.