Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Sleepers / Value Picks

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19 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Nope, but the average league may have around 10-15 other teams looking for this year's Snell...A cheap player who finishes in the top 25 player value does more to help a team win then will the difference between Kendrys Morales and some other 1-dimensional veteran 

 

Sure. I guess my point is that I believe it’s best to balance my risk and my upside. I find a pick like Morales comes with a more likely floor, and those type of players I feel free me up to take risks and have a better baseline. 

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29 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

A cheap player who finishes in the top 25 player value does more to help a team win then will the difference between Kendrys Morales and some other 1-dimensional veteran 

 

To quote Anchorman, "that doesn't make sense."

 

It's just too blanket a statement.  If your draft leaves you with a bunch of very solid, non injury prone, stable players, then yes gamble on the upside hard at the end of the draft.  If, on the other hand, your draft leaves you with a bunch of high upside high risk type guys, then a KM may look real nice in the last round.  Every draft pick is context-dependent and every strategy is only applicable in the right context.  1-dimensional veterans have their place in the game, as do young flash-in-the-pan guys, and everyone in between.

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1 hour ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

To quote Anchorman, "that doesn't make sense."

 

It's just too blanket a statement.  If your draft leaves you with a bunch of very solid, non injury prone, stable players, then yes gamble on the upside hard at the end of the draft.  If, on the other hand, your draft leaves you with a bunch of high upside high risk type guys, then a KM may look real nice in the last round.  Every draft pick is context-dependent and every strategy is only applicable in the right context.  1-dimensional veterans have their place in the game, as do young flash-in-the-pan guys, and everyone in between.

 

But the point being is that you can usually find a comparable player to Kendrys Morales on the WW unless the league is very deep.  If a $1 player "hits" and emerges into a top 25 player then there are no replacements.

 

I assure you, more  top-3 Roto teams in 2018 had Blake Snell on them than Kendrys Morales.

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24 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

But the point being is that you can usually find a comparable player to Kendrys Morales on the WW unless the league is very deep.  If a $1 player "hits" and emerges into a top 25 player then there are no replacements.

 

I assure you, more  top-3 Roto teams in 2018 had Blake Snell on them than Kendrys Morales.

 

You don't say.  I, for one, am astonished that a top 10 SP would be more valuable than a last round flier for stability.  I mean, really, shocked.  Do you also think that most top-3 Roto teams had Acuna on them and not Bundy?  I never thought about this before.  So, you're saying that most teams that win had guys like Bregman, Machado, Freeman, Trout, and Betts?  And you're saying that they didn't have Joe Panik, Albert Amora Jr, and Freddy Galvis?  Really?  I mean, really?  They didn't have Freddy Galvis?  How do you win without guys like Freddy Galvis?

 

Seriously though, that is perhaps the worst argument you could bring to this thread.  No one is comparing Snell to KM and no one wants to.  All I said was that guys like KM have a place in fantasy baseball.  You seem to be arguing that they do not have a place anywhere, which is odd given that this is a game wherein we collect statistics and a guy who produces statistics by definition has value.  If he doesn't have value ***for you*** then just say so, but don't try and argue all out that he's worthless.

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2 guys I'm keeping a close eye on my leagues this year that I feel will outperform their expected ADP are Stephen Piscotty and Collin McHugh.

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Any non-standard category sleepers you guys have your eyes on? Eg OBP, OPS, QS, Holds, K/9 etc etc. 

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26 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

You don't say.  I, for one, am astonished that a top 10 SP would be more valuable than a last round flier for stability.  I mean, really, shocked.  Do you also think that most top-3 Roto teams had Acuna on them and not Bundy?  I never thought about this before.  So, you're saying that most teams that win had guys like Bregman, Machado, Freeman, Trout, and Betts?  And you're saying that they didn't have Joe Panik, Albert Amora Jr, and Freddy Galvis?  Really?  I mean, really?  They didn't have Freddy Galvis?  How do you win without guys like Freddy Galvis?

 

Seriously though, that is perhaps the worst argument you could bring to this thread.  No one is comparing Snell to KM and no one wants to.  All I said was that guys like KM have a place in fantasy baseball.  You seem to be arguing that they do not have a place anywhere, which is odd given that this is a game wherein we collect statistics and a guy who produces statistics by definition has value.  If he doesn't have value ***for you*** then just say so, but don't try and argue all out that he's worthless.

 

This is a straw man argument.  

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I like R Lopez in Southside Chicago. He gets better every year and finished strong last year. Dirt cheap draft pick.

 

Plus that division can't hit didly.

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Jurickson Profar gimme gimme. It wasn't too long ago that he was a can't miss prospect. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit 25 bombs to go along with a dozen sb. Oakland has a pretty good lineup.

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26 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Any non-standard category sleepers you guys have your eyes on? Eg OBP, OPS, QS, Holds, K/9 etc etc. 

 

For HLDs I like Rosenthal a lot.  Former closer with pure heat, the clear 8th inning option in front of Doolittle who seems injury prone.  I like Pressly a lot in HLD leagues as well.  The PHI pen is crowded but Neshek could be a sneaky (and cheap) source of HLDs and ridiculous ratios.  Most high-end middle relievers offer good HLD value with ratios and a nice K/9 to boot. 

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I don't really want to get into a debate on whether he's a sleeper or not, but a guy I really like with an ADP around 300 is Anibal Sanchez. I know what you're thinking, but hear me out. From Fangraphs:

 

PITCH TYPE:

Season Team FA% FC% FS% SI% CH% SL% CU% CS% KN% SB% XX%
                         
2014 Tigers 37.4 %     9.8 % 21.3 % 23.4 % 8.2 %        
2015 Tigers 38.7 % 5.8 %   13.2 % 17.9 % 15.8 % 8.5 %        
2016 Tigers 40.9 % 2.9 %   16.6 % 16.7 % 14.2 % 8.8 %        
2017 Tigers 32.3 % 8.6 %   17.3 % 20.9 % 11.1 % 9.8 %        
2018 Braves 29.7 % 23.0 %   7.8 % 24.9 % 5.5 % 8.9 %       0.1 

 

PITCH VALUE:

Season Team wFA wFC wFS wSI wCH wSL wCU wCS wKN wSB
                       
2014 Tigers 1.3     2.5 2.9 3.6 1.7      
2015 Tigers -7.0 -0.3   2.2 1.9 -6.4 1.4      
2016 Tigers -4.4 -3.4   -0.5 1.6 -6.1 -5.6      
2017 Tigers -7.1 -6.3   -4.9 3.6 -5.4 -4.9      
2018 Braves -1.1 12.4   -4.4 15.1 -2.3 -1.7    

 

Look at the dramatic increases in cutter % and change up% from last year. 48% of his pitches were either cutters or change ups, which not coincidentally were his two best pitches. I think these are sustainable changes. I like the fit in Washington and think he'll continue to put up a k/9 around 9, a very good ERA and WHIP, and a decent amount of wins.

 

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7 hours ago, TheTruth024 said:

 

Why do you say more likely will suck?  I think he is a great name for this forum.  He has always had a good contact rate in the minors, and relatively low K-rate.  Batting leadoff for Baltimore, so will get AB's.  15/15 not out of the question, and could flirt with 20/20 if he gets 600+ PA.  Perfect guy to gamble on late.  I actually think he has a better chance of being good than "likely suck".

 

BrickWall had this to say about him in their top 1000 dynasty rankings:

 

173) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 24.6 – One of the most underrated talented youngsters to recently break into the majors.  The switch hitting Mullins is lightning fast with solid pop and has made good contact his entire career. Buy everywhere. 2019 Projection: 78/14/55/.265/.328/.419/19 Prime Projection: 87/18/61/.281/.342/.440/22

 

Mullins is just brutal against lefties, could be a platoon guy. Maybe useful in daily leagues (which I mainly play) vs rhb. I am still intrigued, just not expecting the world and he’s someone I’d cut if things weren’t shaping up well in the first two weeks.

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4 hours ago, meh2 said:

I don't really want to get into a debate on whether he's a sleeper or not, but a guy I really like with an ADP around 300 is Anibal Sanchez. I know what you're thinking, but hear me out. From Fangraphs:

 

PITCH TYPE:

Season Team FA% FC% FS% SI% CH% SL% CU% CS% KN% SB% XX%
                         
2014 Tigers 37.4 %     9.8 % 21.3 % 23.4 % 8.2 %        
2015 Tigers 38.7 % 5.8 %   13.2 % 17.9 % 15.8 % 8.5 %        
2016 Tigers 40.9 % 2.9 %   16.6 % 16.7 % 14.2 % 8.8 %        
2017 Tigers 32.3 % 8.6 %   17.3 % 20.9 % 11.1 % 9.8 %        
2018 Braves 29.7 % 23.0 %   7.8 % 24.9 % 5.5 % 8.9 %       0.1 

 

PITCH VALUE:

Season Team wFA wFC wFS wSI wCH wSL wCU wCS wKN wSB
                       
2014 Tigers 1.3     2.5 2.9 3.6 1.7      
2015 Tigers -7.0 -0.3   2.2 1.9 -6.4 1.4      
2016 Tigers -4.4 -3.4   -0.5 1.6 -6.1 -5.6      
2017 Tigers -7.1 -6.3   -4.9 3.6 -5.4 -4.9      
2018 Braves -1.1 12.4   -4.4 15.1 -2.3 -1.7    

 

Look at the dramatic increases in cutter % and change up% from last year. 48% of his pitches were either cutters or change ups, which not coincidentally were his two best pitches. I think these are sustainable changes. I like the fit in Washington and think he'll continue to put up a k/9 around 9, a very good ERA and WHIP, and a decent amount of wins.

 

Wont debate you and should even be a lot higher the 300. That ADP should rise if he looks good in spring. Great call.

Edited by Magoo
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Keep an eye on Jake Cave, should at worst be the 4th OF for the Twins.  At best he replaces Buxton if Buxton stinks again.  

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On 2/6/2019 at 5:03 PM, meh2 said:

I don't really want to get into a debate on whether he's a sleeper or not, but a guy I really like with an ADP around 300 is Anibal Sanchez. I know what you're thinking, but hear me out. From Fangraphs:

 

 

Theres a ton of pitchers I'll be targeting late in deep drafts if I go super heavy on hitting early; Anibal is close to the top of that list.

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Anibal Sanchez had a sub 3 DRA (deserved run average) last year per baseball prospectus...agree that he's completely being overlooked...especially when he performed so well last year.

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On 2/6/2019 at 3:03 PM, meh2 said:

I don't really want to get into a debate on whether he's a sleeper or not, but a guy I really like with an ADP around 300 is Anibal Sanchez. I know what you're thinking, but hear me out. From Fangraphs:

 

PITCH TYPE:

Season Team FA% FC% FS% SI% CH% SL% CU% CS% KN% SB% XX%
                         
2014 Tigers 37.4 %     9.8 % 21.3 % 23.4 % 8.2 %        
2015 Tigers 38.7 % 5.8 %   13.2 % 17.9 % 15.8 % 8.5 %        
2016 Tigers 40.9 % 2.9 %   16.6 % 16.7 % 14.2 % 8.8 %        
2017 Tigers 32.3 % 8.6 %   17.3 % 20.9 % 11.1 % 9.8 %        
2018 Braves 29.7 % 23.0 %   7.8 % 24.9 % 5.5 % 8.9 %       0.1 

 

PITCH VALUE:

Season Team wFA wFC wFS wSI wCH wSL wCU wCS wKN wSB
                       
2014 Tigers 1.3     2.5 2.9 3.6 1.7      
2015 Tigers -7.0 -0.3   2.2 1.9 -6.4 1.4      
2016 Tigers -4.4 -3.4   -0.5 1.6 -6.1 -5.6      
2017 Tigers -7.1 -6.3   -4.9 3.6 -5.4 -4.9      
2018 Braves -1.1 12.4   -4.4 15.1 -2.3 -1.7    

 

Look at the dramatic increases in cutter % and change up% from last year. 48% of his pitches were either cutters or change ups, which not coincidentally were his two best pitches. I think these are sustainable changes. I like the fit in Washington and think he'll continue to put up a k/9 around 9, a very good ERA and WHIP, and a decent amount of wins.

 

He just went 229 in the NFBC OC I'm in right now...

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Anibal's FIP last year of 3.62 does show that some regression could happen; also, you are probably looking at an inning count of no more than 150 IP as his last three year's inning pitched were 153.1, 101.1, 136.2. 

 

With all this in mind, I would say he is a top 250; I am sure some will reach for him a bit like Magoo mentioned; but the fact that he can't pitch deeper in the game really hurt his value.

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3 hours ago, CorreaTown said:

OF - Ramon Laureano from Oakland

5 category potential

 

Was wondering if anyone would bring him up, actually surprised he hasn’t had more hype.

 

He had a very bad 2017 in the minors which i haven’t seen a decent explanation for other than he came off an injury in 2016.  If you remove that year and just look at the rest of his career we’re looking at a 20/20 hitter(went 19hr/18sb in 112 g between AAA and MLB last year)  who won’t hurt you in AVG and be a monster in Obp leagues.  And in case you haven’t noticed he has an absolute hose for an arm.

 

 

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On 12/28/2018 at 6:56 AM, Slatykamora said:

Talking about guys who flashed excellent weak contact ability. Who don't have much for fastball velo?  Anibal Sanchez would be my personal sleeper.

 

He adopted effective cutter into his pitch mix last year. Most of his stat cast metrics were near top tier (Exit Velo against, Hard against, Barrels against) and much more favorable K/BB. So this pitch mix change illustrated excellent results.

 

26 minutes ago, AF25 said:

Anibal's FIP last year of 3.62 does show that some regression could happen; also, you are probably looking at an inning count of no more than 150 IP as his last three year's inning pitched were 153.1, 101.1, 136.2. 

 

With all this in mind, I would say he is a top 250; I am sure some will reach for him a bit like Magoo mentioned; but the fact that he can't pitch deeper in the game really hurt his value.

 

Very good point about IP. I doubt he tops 150 given his age/recent track record. Not as worried much worried about the FIP given bolded part.  

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20 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

 

 

Very good point about IP. I doubt he tops 150 given his age/recent track record. Not as worried much worried about the FIP given bolded part.  

 

Very good point too, Slatykamora. If he is someone's #8 SP, I think that someone is doing fine with his draft.  I have Anibal as a potential pick from my dynasty league this year, but do have others like Musgrove and McHugh, among others as options. 

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Re: Ramon Laureano.  There is a reason he led all minor leaguers in OBP in 2016 despite his K% being above 20. His approach for his career has been very BABIP centric when he's doing what he wants. Along with high BB rates. (2 Opposite field HRs already is hinting at true all fields power)

 

Career wise. A much younger Tommy Pham is pretty good comp for an eventual outcome. For those in dynasty.

 

Re-draft there is still a lot of risk. He's not nearly to Phams level of polish. So this year could have lots of rough patches for a young hitter adjusting and learning. So major BA risk is there. Though being the more youthful version of this. His SB totals would likely be higher.

Edited by Slatykamora
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I picked up Laureano for $1 in my 16-team 5x5 OBP keeper after losing in the QF of the playoffs. Expecting good production out of my last starting OF. If people keep talking about him, he won’t be much of a sleeper. 

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Lots of the sleeper picks on here would be mine too. However if I had to pick just one I'd probably make mine Nomar Mazara.

 

He has been super consistent, hitting 20 HR for each of the last three seasons, but he was on Pace to shatter that trend last season until a thumb injury at the all star break derailed his season.

 

He is still just twenty three years old, and so I think his floor is 20 HR but he has plenty of room for power upside given his young age. The biggest room for improvement could be his launch angle which was an average of just 8 degrees last year. I think if he can bring that up we could see a big power breakout.

 

Additionally the rangers have hired a new hitting coach specifically to "coax" more power out of him. 

 

 

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2019/02/07/rangers-spring-training-projectsthe-big-adjustment-nomar-mazara-must-make-season

 

I'm planning him for 20 HR, but think he has a good chance to break 30.

 

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