Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Sleepers / Value Picks

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5 hours ago, 24/7fantasysports said:

Anyone liking Ketel Marte (SS-Diamondbacks)?

 

As what? I like Marte as an MI. But he doesn't have a lot of power, and has never been able to translate his speed to steals. 

 

If they're both looking like fulltime players, I prefer Jorge Polanco (Twins) to throw out a similar position / potential value. 

Edited by taobball
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Jesse Winker if he looks healthy in the spring, that combo of high BA, high BBs, and low Ks is extraordinarily rare, if it all comes together he could have a breakout similar to Brantley’s 2014 but without the steals.

 

Hunter Renfroe.  Kinda risky if you play in OBP leagues but he’s slowly but surely getting better at taking walks, and that big second half hints at the 40 HR season to come.  The pieces are there to put together something close to vintage Chris Davis.

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There is a potentially promising bumper crop of Catchers coming up that will hopefully provide a good fantasy baseball fall harvest this year.  After JTR and Sanchez, there are a bunch of time sharing situations.  Nonetheless I look forward to seeing guys like Astudillo, Mejia, maybe Ruiz and Bart, Zack Collins, and Varsho play.

 

Forgot Jansen but he already looks solid.

Edited by STLSU
Jansen

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Jesse Winker. Played the last 3 or 4 years with a busted shoulder. He even said he adjusted his swing to deal with it and he still raked. Guy could be a hitting savant. 

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2 hours ago, dod959 said:

Jesse Winker. Played the last 3 or 4 years with a busted shoulder. He even said he adjusted his swing to deal with it and he still raked. Guy could be a hitting savant. 

 

I think the Puig trade might keep his ADP in check too, so decent potential profit. 

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7 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Franmil Reyes - OF SD as a late source of 30+ HR, with a decent possibility of 40. 

Came it shout out Franmil, was pleasantly surprised (disappointed?!) that he's already been mentioned. Playing time question marks should keep his adp way down and like you mentioned, definitely has the raw power to be capable of 40 HR. It's just a question of contact.

 

 

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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

Came it shout out Franmil, was pleasantly surprised (disappointed?!) that he's already been mentioned. Playing time question marks should keep his adp way down and like you mentioned, definitely has the raw power to be capable of 40 HR. It's just a question of contact.

 

 

 

Yea but is he going to play every day is the question.

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Just now, AnonymousRob said:

Question to the Winker fans: How much playing time does he get? 

 

I don't think it's crazy he gets everyday PT. 

 

If no other additions are made, I'm going to guess it's going to be a Kemp / Schebler platoon where maybe Puig plays in CF against LHP? The Reds do have a small CF at home. 

 

It's hard to always say what a team will do. I'm buying both Puig and Winker as if they'll be everyday players and expecting it to work itself out. They clearly should be everyday players of the bunch IMO. 

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And if you're not in an OBP league, I think Winker profiles as a better real life than fantasy player anyway. I'm not a huge go out and get Winker guy, even though I love him as a baseball player/hitter. BUt I think he finds his way into mostly full time PT. 

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Good points. I'm only in obp leagues so I love a guy like Winker. I think the playing time is a slight question though. In shallow benches I think there are enough questions about his playing time to hesitate before drafting him. 

 

Tbf I'm sure we'll get clarity as the season approaches, but right now I'm a bit apprehensive. 

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3 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Good points. I'm only in obp leagues so I love a guy like Winker. I think the playing time is a slight question though. In shallow benches I think there are enough questions about his playing time to hesitate before drafting him. 

 

Tbf I'm sure we'll get clarity as the season approaches, but right now I'm a bit apprehensive. 

 

The biggest challenge to his playing time is Matt Kemp. And it's fair that the Reds may choose to play him over Winker, particularly v. LHP. But not having Winker play everyday after his first half season on a team like the Reds is irresponsible IMO, and so right now I'm operating under the belief it'll work itself out. 

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Winker had the 6th best OBP in baseball, min. 300 PA. 

 

Are the Reds capable of benching a .405 OBP? I suppose it's possible but Votto would strangle the manager. 

Edited by dod959
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10 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Question to the Winker fans: How much playing time does he get? 

 

Winker will platoon with Kemp in LF.  Schebler, Ervin, and then Senzel (after minors stint so they gain extra control) will be in CF.  Puig everyday in right.  Kemp will definitely be in vs. LHP.  Winker unfortunately will not get full time AB's, although he deserves it.  Lots of videos with Reds executives on Reds.com telling you about the additions of Puig and Kemp.  If people think Winker will get full time AB's early on, they should go there and watch some of those

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4 minutes ago, TheTruth024 said:

 

Winker will platoon with Kemp in LF.  Schebler, Ervin, and then Senzel (after minors stint so they gain extra control) will be in CF.  Puig everyday in right.  Kemp will definitely be in vs. LHP.  Winker unfortunately will not get full time AB's, although he deserves it.  Lots of videos with Reds executives on Reds.com telling you about the additions of Puig and Kemp.  If people think Winker will get full time AB's early on, they should go there and watch some of those

 

I think it's more likely that the Reds go Winker -- Puig -- Kemp v. LHP and Winker -- Schebler -- Puig v. RHP than that they sit WInker v. LHP right now. 

 

I don't see any video that says that Kemp will play AND Winker will not. If you can find one of those let me know. 

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11 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Question to the Winker fans: How much playing time does he get? 

 

I think this is one of thoe situations where he eventually just plays every day no questions asked. How long exactly does that take? Hopefully less than a month. I think he's  significantly a better hitter than Kemp or Schebler (Kemp specifially is a negative on defense.. I think he's also probably better than Puig, but if Puig is hot and maintains what he did towards the end of last season than maybe Puig is a better hitter than him, but not by incredibly much over a large sample size.

 

Health permitting, Winker will play every day over Kemp/Schebler against RHP. Against LHP, it's a toss up between him and Schebler, but that's also assuming Kemp/Puig stay healthy.

 

I think Winker gets 550 PA if healthy. 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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16 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I don't see any video that says that Kemp will play AND Winker will not. If you can find one of those let me know. 

 

True, but here is one where they talk about CF options.  If they do move Puig to CF on occasion, instead of Schebler, Ervin, Senzel, then Winker will get the full time AB's he deserves.  Plus there is mention of still adding another CF in the video which will create even more of a log jam.  I would love for Winker to get 550+ AB's, but at this point I think anything more than 450 with that logjam will be a bonus.  With that said, his bat might force its way into 550+

 

https://www.mlb.com/reds/video/williams-on-center-field-options/c-2521357983?tid=40172882

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There seem to be a lot more young post-hype sleeper candidates out there this year than in prior years, for which varying degrees of cases could be made for a breakout, for those looking to score the next Profar.

 

I’m not personally bullish on all these guys, but some exames include: Margot, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Mazara, Arcia, Swanson, Kingery, McMahon, O’Neill, Pederson, Weaver, Glasnow, Castillo and Rodon.  (Plus Winker and Renfroe who I already mentioned as guys I like).

 

All of these guys should be fairly cheap; dirt cheap in many cases.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Weekday Warrior
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3 minutes ago, TheTruth024 said:

 

True, but here is one where they talk about CF options.  If they do move Puig to CF on occasion, instead of Schebler, Ervin, Senzel, then Winker will get the full time AB's he deserves.  Plus there is mention of still adding another CF in the video which will create even more of a log jam.  I would love for Winker to get 550+ AB's, but at this point I think anything more than 450 with that logjam will be a bonus.  With that said, his bat might force its way into 550+

 

https://www.mlb.com/reds/video/williams-on-center-field-options/c-2521357983?tid=40172882

 

Honestly, if they bring in a Full-Time CF, I still expect them to use Winker full time. Because then I think they start moving forward with 3-Full Time OF and move on from Kemp pretty quickly.

 

But this video is exactly what I would want to hear as a Winker fan IMO. Seems to suggest a CF platoon, and that they're comfortable faking Puig as a CF, which could work out quite well in their favor with how small GAPB's Outfield is. It's a great HR park, but can be a BABIP suppressor in the OF. And there's no difference between one CF and the other on a HR. I'm ANAL when it comes to defense. And this does somewhat offend my highly sensitive defensive side, but ultimately I think they get away with it and that line-up looks great. 

 

Nick Senzel is an incredible prospect. I love Senzel. I love hit tools. I love his hit tool. BUT. His injury definitely knocked his timeline. It's not JUST service time. I'm not saying he's not ready or anything, but for a player blocked on Defense in most of his natural positions, Senzel only has 193 PAs in AAA and 235 in AA for a total of 428. That's not that much. Keeping him down for at least half the year isn't some travesty like the idea of doing that to Acuna at this time last year. Or Vlad Guerrero this year for that matter. 

 

Senzel joining the line-up is too far away for me to be too worried. If ANYONE on the team is injured with the exception of Tucker Barnhart, it'll shake it up. Senzel would theoretically replace an injured Suarez, Gennett, or even Peraza before he would play CF. So if there's ANY injury before Senzel comes up, it may be a completely irrelevant question for PT. So i'm not worrying about him at all. 

 

Whatever they say, acquiring Kemp was purely a financial offset with Homer Bailey. He's a one year, expiring player, who at best is just "different" than Winker. Winker gets on base a lot, Kemp maximizes on ISO when he's having success. But Kemp's collateral trade meat on an expiring contract, and Winker's a .400 OBP Hoss with 5+ years of team control who needs to be playing v. LHP right now. 

 

(And again, not a huge 5x5 Asset. OBP leagues. He'll be a solid ballplayer in a BA league depending on line-up spot, but not a lot of HR+SB). 

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18 minutes ago, TheTruth024 said:

 

would love for Winker to get 550+ AB's, but at this point I think anything more than 450 with that logjam will be a bonus. 

 

I get that we have nothing to look at but projected lineups in December, but when the games are actually played stuff becomes more clear. Jose Martinez can't play any defense whatsoever, and I was discussing projected PAs last season with him.  People thought I was nuts to think he would get over 500 PA because "Where is he going to play?!?!", and he ended up with 590 (and that was with some benchings here and there and some minor injuries)

 

Winker is a better real life hitter than probably any of their OFs, he's the 2nd best at worst.  If the owner in your league is worried about PAs, I'd buy. 

 

I confidently project over 500 PAs here so long as he stays healthy. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 minute ago, Weekday Warrior said:

There seem to be a lot more young post-hype sleeper candidates out there this year than in prior years, for which varying degrees of cases could be made for a breakout, for those looking to score the next Profar.

 

I’m not personally bullish on all these guys, but some exames include: Margot, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Mazara, Arcia, Swanson, Kingery, McMahon, O’Neill, Weaver, Glasnow, Castillo and Rodon.  (Plus Winker and Renfroe who I already mentioned as guys I like).

 

All of these guys should be fairly cheap; dirt cheap in many cases.

 

 

 

 

 

Going in order...

 

I think I really like Profar. Margot's great solely on price; he's struggled in his career. Buxton's real tricky; more interested in shallow leagues; want him closer to where Brock got him in RW MD 1 (225ish) than where he went in the 2nd Mock (175ish). Sano's another one that's gonna be really price based to me, but I think he still has the ability to hit .240 / 40, which is very valuable in roto; hard thing is a lot of those types like Gallo are more or less seen as reliable for power, Sano is variable right now, Gallo does not feel as much so. I like Kepler; he had a terrible BABIP last year; some bad BABIP predictors too, but if he has the same year with his still-s---y career average .257 BABIP (.236 BABIP in 2018) I think he easily returns draft-day value. Mazara did have his best HR/PA year last year, I keep thinking like many that he'll have an actual step forward one year. Not very interested in Arcia; just hasn't done anything interesting or shown the tools at the MLB level; bad Hard% bad K/BB bad struggles v. both 4SFB and Slider. Swanson had terrible splits, and Camargo is the better hitter clearly rn. Kingery / McMahon / O'Neil all become mixed league interesting if they're clearly everyday players, but I don't know that any of them are right now. 

 

Castillo might not end up being cheap I feel like. But I started his thread and love the way he ended last year. 

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McMahon got screwed with the signing of Murphy.  I liked him as a post hype sleeper until that signing.  I just dont see the fascination in Mazara.  People seem to really love him or hate him.  Buxton is a guy that does interest me as a post hype sleeper as well.  Dude just needs to stay healthy.  Another late bloomer like Profar

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ADP would be dumb to rely on at this time.  Just lopk at the players batted ball stats to help you .

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On 12/30/2018 at 9:03 AM, 2ndCitySox said:

Franmil Reyes - OF SD as a late source of 30+ HR, with a decent possibility of 40. 

 

That crowded OF will have to clear up some, first. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

That crowded OF will have to clear up some, first. 

 

How bad is it really? Renfroe, Margot, Reyes full time OF I think is entirely possible.

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