Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Sleepers / Value Picks

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14 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I think it’s going to be more expensive

I think Villar should be ranked higher than where he is currently ranked which is outside the top 100.

When I look at some of the speed guys and where there is value,  I keep staring at Villar who stole 35 bags and 5 CS in less than 500 PA's last year.

With his ability to hit some HR's and what I think will be a giant green light in Baltimore,  anything over .250 BA should make him a money pick.

 

For me,  when I see Lorenzo Cain come off the board around pick 50,  I'm looking at Villar anywhere around 75 right now.

I don't know if we've seen the best of Dee Gordon or if he has a little more left in his tank but I feel like he's going down the Billy Hamilton path.

Mallex Smith around 125 seems like a nice value pick as well.

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6 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

I think Villar should be ranked higher than where he is currently ranked which is outside the top 100.

When I look at some of the speed guys and where there is value,  I keep staring at Villar who stole 35 bags and 5 CS in less than 500 PA's last year.

With his ability to hit some HR's and what I think will be a giant green light in Baltimore,  anything over .250 BA should make him a money pick.

 

For me,  when I see Lorenzo Cain come off the board around pick 50,  I'm looking at Villar anywhere around 75 right now.

I don't know if we've seen the best of Dee Gordon or if he has a little more left in his tank but I feel like he's going down the Billy Hamilton path.

Mallex Smith around 125 seems like a nice value pick as well.

Villars ADP has been around 85 in NFBC for a while. 75 is the right spot to target him. 

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5 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Villars ADP has been around 85 in NFBC for a while. 75 is the right spot to target him. 

 

Well that makes sense to me.  A good situation for him in Baltimore.

Fangraphs in Oct. had him at 125 and ESPN has him at 126, which I thought didn't make sense.

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One sleeper I am looking at is Max Kepler.  His surface numbers aren't too impressive but he had a big jump in BB% and drop in K % and was hurt by a ridculously low 

BABIP.  He's just 25 years old.

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4 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

One sleeper I am looking at is Max Kepler.  His surface numbers aren't too impressive but he had a big jump in BB% and drop in K % and was hurt by a ridculously low 

BABIP.  He's just 25 years old.

 

I like his K/BB, and  like him as a sleeper. But his BABIP has been trash his whole career, and will probably continue to be trash unless something major changes.

 

But if he can just get it up to  like.... .250 with his K/BB and 20 HR and a handful of steals, he'll be a worthwhile pick. I think he's been earning those BABIPs tho. 

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20 hours ago, taobball said:

Where does Villars ADP end up? I’ve heard a lot of talking up

 

Ive done 3 NFBC 50s because I’m a loser and can’t help myself

 

around thanksgiving, I took him at 142.

mid December he went 102

last week he went 85.

 

so it keeps going up and up and up.  I think by March he’s going to be a 6th rounder in 5x5.  So going around 60-72 This is a guy who was a 2nd and 3rd rounder not long ago. 

 

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4 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Ive done 3 NFBC 50s because I’m a loser and can’t help myself

 

around thanksgiving, I took him at 142.

mid December he went 102

last week he went 85.

 

so it keeps going up and up and up.  I think by March he’s going to be a 6th rounder in 5x5.  So going around 60-72 This is a guy who was a 2nd and 3rd rounder not long ago. 

 

 

60-72 is honestly the vibe of where I've been feeling it might eventually go. I think it might be more 75-85 overall with an earlier slant in NFBC type leagues. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

I like his K/BB, and  like him as a sleeper. But his BABIP has been trash his whole career, and will probably continue to be trash unless something major changes.

 

But if he can just get it up to  like.... .250 with his K/BB and 20 HR and a handful of steals, he'll be a worthwhile pick. I think he's been earning those BABIPs tho. 

Lefties by Year

2016: 25.6% K,  .119 ISO,  .203 BA

2017: 29.2% K,  .088 ISO,  .153 BA

2018: 21.6% K,  .177 ISO,  .245 BA

 

Righies by Year

2016: 18.8% K   .219 ISO  .242  BA

2017: 17.6 % K  .212 ISO  .272  BA

2018: 13.5% K   .187 ISO  .216  BA

 

Numbers against RHP tanked last year.  He was a typical handles RHP, sucks vs southpaws kinda guy. Then it reversed. Lefty splits are too small of sample make a lot of in year to year... but there is "usually" enough vs RHP to make sense of.

 

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7 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

One sleeper I am looking at is Max Kepler.  His surface numbers aren't too impressive but he had a big jump in BB% and drop in K % and was hurt by a ridculously low 

BABIP.  He's just 25 years old.

The year was 2017 the talk that Max might be in for a breakout  ...he stank it up .

2018 came maybe this was the year.. he stank again. 

 

easy PASS ... he can’t hit 

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Anyone else got their eye on Kike Hernandez? Seems to be improving vs lefties each year and evened out last season

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22 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

The year was 2017 the talk that Max might be in for a breakout  ...he stank it up .

2018 came maybe this was the year.. he stank again. 

 

easy PASS ... he can’t hit 

 

you may be right.

 

but you may be wrong, some players take time to break out.

 

he wouldn't be a sleeper if he was a shoe-in to break out. But I don't blame anyone for staying away at this point.

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9 minutes ago, street sharks said:

Anyone else got their eye on Kike Hernandez? Seems to be improving vs lefties each year and evened out last season

You mean righties? Yeah. There is room after trading both Kemp and Puig. Unless they get Harper. Toles and Verdgo havent done much yet to earn more PT.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

The year was 2017 the talk that Max might be in for a breakout  ...he stank it up .

2018 came maybe this was the year.. he stank again. 

 

easy PASS ... he can’t hit 

 

thats just not how fantasy baseball goes.

 

He still might break out. He's not even 26. Shaved 5 points off his previous k rate and added 3% to his bb rate.  Had a low babip, even by his standards last year.  A lot to like here, but the upside isn't super high. Looking like an OF4/5. He's the kinda guy who I don't target but I'll take in one league to have a share at a cheap price just in case, but generally there's probably someone more interesting to draft.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Posted (edited)

Matt Strahm is another guy I am interested in. Unclear what role he’ll have but he should have value either way and draft day cost shouldn’t be higher than his floor as a middle reliever with good stats, and those guys are always useful anyway

Edited by Weekday Warrior
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6 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

Matt Strahm is another guy I am interested in. Unclear what role he’ll have but he should have value either way and draft day cost shouldn’t be higher than his floor as a middle reliever with good stats, and those guys are always useful anyway

Read at the end of last season that he will be given the chance to compete for a rotation spot in spring. Still should be very cheap but he's got SP2/3 upside.

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21 hours ago, JJ1223 said:

Miggy.

 

In the abstract I'd agree, but his Steamer projections are still pretty high.  I suspect he'll still be bought at full price.

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2 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

In the abstract I'd agree, but his Steamer projections are still pretty high.  I suspect he'll still be bought at full price.

 

What do you consider full price? Early ADP I've seen puts him in the 175-200 range, and anyone in that range I'd consider a sleeper. I really don't see him gaining traction from that either after hitting .249/16 two years ago in a good number of PAs and missing almost every game last year and totaling only 3 HRs... and is now about to turn 36. 

 

If he starts moving into the 130ish range then it becomes a real question, but I don't really think it does. I think Cabrera's going to be a free player in a ten team league essentially. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

What do you consider full price? Early ADP I've seen puts him in the 175-200 range, and anyone in that range I'd consider a sleeper. I really don't see him gaining traction from that either after hitting .249/16 two years ago in a good number of PAs and missing almost every game last year and totaling only 3 HRs... and is now about to turn 36. 

 

If he starts moving into the 130ish range then it becomes a real question, but I don't really think it does. I think Cabrera's going to be a free player in a ten team league essentially. 

 

His ADP is 157 in NFBC which is creeping up towards full price in my opinion.

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

What do you consider full price? Early ADP I've seen puts him in the 175-200 range, and anyone in that range I'd consider a sleeper. I really don't see him gaining traction from that either after hitting .249/16 two years ago in a good number of PAs and missing almost every game last year and totaling only 3 HRs... and is now about to turn 36. 

 

If he starts moving into the 130ish range then it becomes a real question, but I don't really think it does. I think Cabrera's going to be a free player in a ten team league essentially. 

 

If so, I'm all over that (if signs point to him being healthy).

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21 hours ago, JJ1223 said:

Miggy.

 

All day.  Miggy post-missing-most-a-season is exactly the type of guy I'm buying.  Let's get sexy for a moment and look at Miggy's lifetime 162 game average over 16 seasons:

605 AB: 33 HR, 117 RBI, 99 R, 3 SB, .316 AVG, .395 OBP

A little more sexy, the dude averages 40 2Bs, 78 BB, and 118 SO.  Un-f-ing-real.

 

I don't need to go through the caveats because everyone's already on them, that's why he's being drafted as a washed up piece of trash.  NFBC has him at 157 right now, so about round 13.  I think he can go 600 AB: 80 R, 30 HR, 95 RBI, .300/.390 and I think there's room for more counting stats and AVG there.  No question about the risk, but the reward is way too high to pass up here.  Closest 1B to him in ADP are Desmond and Hosmer.  Think about that.  Ian, watch me hit .220, and Eric, my ceiling is Miggy's floor.  Or you can take a gamble on health: if he's not healthy, you lose, if he is, you now have a top 30 player.  Or you can have Ian Desmond.  Ian, lifetime .315 OBP Desmond.

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4 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

All day.  Miggy post-missing-most-a-season is exactly the type of guy I'm buying.  Let's get sexy for a moment and look at Miggy's lifetime 162 game average over 16 seasons:

605 AB: 33 HR, 117 RBI, 99 R, 3 SB, .316 AVG, .395 OBP

A little more sexy, the dude averages 40 2Bs, 78 BB, and 118 SO.  Un-f-ing-real.

 

I don't need to go through the caveats because everyone's already on them, that's why he's being drafted as a washed up piece of trash.  NFBC has him at 157 right now, so about round 13.  I think he can go 600 AB: 80 R, 30 HR, 95 RBI, .300/.390 and I think there's room for more counting stats and AVG there.  No question about the risk, but the reward is way too high to pass up here.  Closest 1B to him in ADP are Desmond and Hosmer.  Think about that.  Ian, watch me hit .220, and Eric, my ceiling is Miggy's floor.  Or you can take a gamble on health: if he's not healthy, you lose, if he is, you now have a top 30 player.  Or you can have Ian Desmond.  Ian, lifetime .315 OBP Desmond.

 

He still needs to be at a place where he can be bought and not do much for your team though, at least IMO. He's still been healthy for a season really once in the past four years. He's only had more than 18 HRs once in those four years. The last two years have been abysmal. 

 

So yes, I absolutely agree that you that Miggy has a nuts floor even now if he plays 150 games and gets 550-600 PAs. But even asking for that is a bit of a stretch. I want Miggy, but only if I feel like getting pretty much nothing from that pick is acceptable, which puts him behind quite a few sleepers that I have a more acceptable floor for, because Miggy's floor isn't what he is when he's perfectly healthy. 

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Its interesting to compare the careers of Pujols and Miggy.  Pujols' 2013 season at 33 years old where he hit .258 with just 17 HR in 99 games was a sign of a downturn in his career, but he still had a couple years left in the power department, putting up 40 HR/95 RBI followed by 31 HR/119 RBI in his 35/36 year old seasons.

 

If Miggy can do something *close* to that as far as rebounding, he's easily worth being drafted several rounds ahead of his current ADP.

 

As noted above though, the question is whether he can stay healthy and get the PAs to have a shot at doing something like that.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, kenag122002 said:

Its interesting to compare the careers of Pujols and Miggy.  Pujols' 2013 season at 33 years old where he hit .258 with just 17 HR in 99 games was a sign of a downturn in his career, but he still had a couple years left in the power department, putting up 40 HR/95 RBI followed by 31 HR/119 RBI in his 35/36 year old seasons.

 

If Miggy can do something *close* to that as far as rebounding, he's easily worth being drafted several rounds ahead of his current ADP.

 

You’re banking on counting stats from a guy with chronic back issues and then some.

 

A better comp is a guy like Brandon Belt, Ryan , Zimmerman who you can get on or after 300 ADP.

 

At 150 I’d argue Miggy is INSANELY overpriced given who else you can get later.

Edited by Magoo

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I like Bader to go something like 15-20 HR, 25-30 SB.

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