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Yasiel Puig 2019 Outlook

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I analyzed Puig the other day very similarly to the method used by taobball.

 

I came up with a 520 AB / 29 HR / 79 R / 84 RBI / 15 SB / .269 projection.

 

According to SGP, that makes him a clear value at his currect NFBC ADP.

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tao,

Good post. Mostly don't disagree with much of what you said.

However the guy said Puig just needed 500 ABs and he could do 30/20/.270 easily.

You're projecting him for 630+ PA's. That's a huge difference. 

And to me "easily" means that the outcome is more likely than not. 

While I can't argue that any one of those numbers is totally unattainable, thinking he will hit all three is not a logical assessment.

Edited by cs3

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To be honest I'm pretty shocked at this thread so far... now don't get me wrong,  I like his talent, I LOVE his landing spot... but is everyone conveniently forgetting his constant nagging injuries? His rollercoaster swoon and binges? 

 

I'm reading through and it's as if everyone is casually projecting 600+ PA just because he's starting in Cinci and LA was holding Puig's playing time back artificially... have you forgotten his lack of playing time was also more thsn half his own fault? The DL stints, the constant nagging injuries needing rest, and most of all his horrible swoons where he is shown the bench due to performance?

 

Did you guys really trick yourselves into thinking it didn't work out for him LA because management had it out for him and didn't want a successful 270+, 30+ HR hitter in the middle of their line up?

 

Yeah, he's out of the crowded LA OF, and going to be relied upon in Cinci, but that doesnt erase his persistent DL stints and maintence days, and it certainly doesnt erase his swoons. Maybe it pulls together for him health-wise and maybe he's able to progress through his struggles to be more consistent, but to ignore this things and just extrapolate out his averages as if he's likely to be healthy is a big mistake.

 

The same risks tgat have always plagued him follow him. He wasn't a disappointment in fantasy due to LA, it always was because of himself - his health and inconsistency.

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18 minutes ago, cs3 said:

tao,

Good post. Mostly don't disagree with much of what you said.

However the guy said Puig just needed 500 ABs and he could do 30/20/.270 easily.

You're projecting him for 630+ PA's. That's a huge difference. 

And to me "easily" means that the outcome is more likely than not. 

While I can't argue that any one of those numbers is totally unattainable, thinking he will hit all three is not a logical assessment.

 

It's a decent difference. But again, adding park and PAs, I got up to 36. That's quite a bit over 30. And the more HRs makes it not at all hard to see .270. The only thing that is not mathematically exactly what he's done the last two years is the 20 SBs. 

 

And again, I started the whole thing by asking how harshly you were defining "easily." My projection lines him up at about 30/17/.268-.272. So I do think it's fairly likely if he stays healthy that he reaches that point. 

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2 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

 

 

Did you guys really trick yourselves into thinking it didn't work out for him LA because management had it out for him and didn't want a successful 270+, 30+ HR hitter in the middle of their line up?

 

 

 

The issue with this argument is that .270 / 30 is BARELY different than what he's done the last two years. In 2017, he had 28 HRs, 15 SBs, and hit .263 with a .346 OBP. Cincinnati is a vastly superior ballpark for a hitter than LA. It's not about leaving LA going to Cincy in general. It's not LA's management. It's the literal fact of the matter that, statistically, his HR numbers are likely to see a significant increase going from Dodger Stadium (HR Neutral) to Great American (+22% HR Factor last three years via ESPN). 

 

If he hits a few more HRs, it's not hard to see him edging up to .270.

 

The last TWO years, he's hit at least .260, at least 23 HRs, and at least 15 SBs. Not too shabby at all. 

 

People treat Puig like he's been a career disaster. He's been a very good baseball player the last two years. Now he has a greater opportunity. 

 

He's had nagging injuries and does play with a wreckless abandon. That's very fair. But I don't think he's been so injury prone that I'm unwilling to invest in him at a place where I see ample upside and a decent floor. 

 

7 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

 

The same risks tgat have always plagued him follow him. He wasn't a disappointment in fantasy due to LA, it always was because of himself - his health and inconsistency.

 

I guess we just disagree to the extent that Puig has been a fantasy flop. 25.5 HRs, 15 SBs, and .265 BA the last two years is pretty damn solid. If not for counting stats, which were largely limited by the choice to bench him, Puig would've likely been a consistent top 100ish player the last two years. 

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On 12/23/2018 at 8:23 AM, KingJoffrey said:

He was always treated as this red-headed stepchild in LA.  Batting 7th a lot.  No surprise they traded him away.  Has amazing potential.  Cincinnati loves to run. I am going to target him but I think a lot of people will be on the same page and target him as a post hype sleeper.

This. He was actually really good last year if you could ignore R/RBI. If he hits at the top of the lineup, he should be a solid plus in at least 4 categories, and he won't hurt much in BA either. Definitely targeting him... unless he implodes before draft day 🤯

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23 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

interesting:

 

 

 

 

I've said it before, but the benefit of a redraft is you don't have to buy into a player forever. I'm not saying I want Puig for the rest of my life. But some years have every sign pointing to breakout. Better park, more open opportunity, contract year... love it. 

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46 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I've said it before, but the benefit of a redraft is you don't have to buy into a player forever. I'm not saying I want Puig for the rest of my life. But some years have every sign pointing to breakout. Better park, more open opportunity, contract year... love it. 

 

Big agree.

Its almost too perfect how this season is setting up for him. Basically every change is going to benefit him. Home park, lineup, playing time, better divisional parks, less attention, contract year, age (28) - all on his side this season.

He went 23/15 in only 400 AB last year. If you consider all of the factors above he could be in for a huge year. One of my favorite targets this year and a guy I will gladly overpay for in an auction.

Consensus ADP of 92, OF26. So going off the board as an early OF3. Very easy profit here. He has already proven he can produce OF2 numbers without all the improvements in his profile he will enjoy this year.

Edited by Sidearmer

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I don't even think he needs to work harder. His only weakness seems like an anomaly and it was his performance vs. LHP. He has hit them before. It could be as simple as the Dodgers giving him inconsistent playing time. 

 

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I dont see how those comments help him get a contract in the least

 

what GM is going to give a guy that admitted to not working hard because of having said contract another high paid one? just so he can go back to not working hard?

 

guy cost himself tens of millions with those comments, at least if i was a GM haha

Edited by kmoore1521
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Depending how the lineup is constructed, Puig should be able to knock in 100 RBI easily. Winker and Votto are projected to be .400 OBP guys, while Suarez and Gennett both had OBPs above .355 last year. There should be a ton of guys on base for Puig all year. Not much speed among those four but a lot of doubles in those bats. My best guess right now at a lineup is:

 

1 Jesse Winker (L)

2 Joey Votto (L)

3 Eugenio Suarez (R)

4 Scooter Gennett (L)

5 Yasiel Puig (R)

6 Scott Schebler / Matt Kemp (L/R)

7 Jose Peraza (R)

8 Tucker Barnhart (S)

 

Even if this is the Opening Day lineup, I'm sure there will be many variations - as long as Puig is behind Winker / Votto he will have a ton of RBI opportunities.

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2 bombs today. One off lefty Brad Hand. I feel like he's similar to Yelich in that he could win MVP and you wouldn't be THAT surprised. 

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On 3/11/2019 at 12:58 PM, Sidearmer said:

Depending how the lineup is constructed, Puig should be able to knock in 100 RBI easily. Winker and Votto are projected to be .400 OBP guys, while Suarez and Gennett both had OBPs above .355 last year. There should be a ton of guys on base for Puig all year. Not much speed among those four but a lot of doubles in those bats. My best guess right now at a lineup is:

 

1 Jesse Winker (L)

2 Joey Votto (L)

3 Eugenio Suarez (R)

4 Scooter Gennett (L)

5 Yasiel Puig (R)

6 Scott Schebler / Matt Kemp (L/R)

7 Jose Peraza (R)

8 Tucker Barnhart (S)

 

Even if this is the Opening Day lineup, I'm sure there will be many variations - as long as Puig is behind Winker / Votto he will have a ton of RBI opportunities.

I thought Senzel was going to be their opening day CF.

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1 hour ago, dod959 said:

2 bombs today. One off lefty Brad Hand. I feel like he's similar to Yelich in that he could win MVP and you wouldn't be THAT surprised. 

 

Idk about MVP, but I feel like this season we're finally gonna see the Puig people were expecting to see the past few years

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1 hour ago, dod959 said:

2 bombs today. One off lefty Brad Hand. I feel like he's similar to Yelich in that he could win MVP and you wouldn't be THAT surprised. 

 

Funny you mention one was off Brad Hand but neglect to mention the other was off Corey Kluber, haha.

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18 minutes ago, Short Porch said:

I thought Senzel was going to be their opening day CF.

 

Senzel probably will be a victim of service time and they will much more likely be booting Winker, Kemp, Schebler than Puig from the lineup. He is by far the best option of those guys.

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I was excited until I saw his ADP.  84?  Where is the value?

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49 minutes ago, B&F said:

I was excited until I saw his ADP.  84?  Where is the value?

Top 8 OF at pick 84 tons of value! 

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5 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

Top 8 OF at pick 84 tons of value! 

Absolutely, I took him at 75 last week and felt like I got a steal.  He’s easily a top 50 player this season IMO.

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Yup, I would be ALL on board with Puig, but in my drafts Puig went from a projected value of around $15 to over $20. At those prices, I had to quit out on Puig unfortunately. 

He's definitely a great pick if you can get him where he is going, but the hype is real so buyer beware!

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