SpecialFNK

Cincinnati Reds 2019 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

For sure. Not saying the Reds can do it, but Castillo/Wood/Roark is every bit as good (or better) as the top 3 the Brewers marched out IMO. Reds definitely don't have the BP the Brewers did. I like Disco/Mahle/Romano as some nice potentially good arms. Who knows. 

Yeah it's very debatable but close enough that they are the same for the points being made. If Castillo progresses and matures some then I like them more. I'm telling your Roark is meat in Cincy tho. 

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On 12/26/2018 at 1:29 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

They’re still a little ways away from contending.  Matt Kemp isn’t putting them over the top.  

 

That said, Its past time for them to at least try.  They’ve sucked for too long.

 

This exactly. I’m not sure why we are even theorizing the what if’s of possible Reds signings. They shouldn’t and hopefully won’t make any big signings this off season. Teams in their market situation need to rely on picking their window and 2019 before Senzel/Greene/Trammel is not the time to go for it.

 

This is just a gap year.

 

They sacrificed Jeter Downs so it would be fun to watch them play this year, that simple. They just need to be patient, trade Scooter once Senzel comes up and sign one of aces on the market next year. Before 2010 they had a 15 year playoff drought, so I’m pretty cool with waiting one more year to maximize the next window. 

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5 hours ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

This is just a gap year.

 

 

 

Simply put: I disagree. 

 

I think you have anti-bias from being a fan. I live in So. Indiana so GAPB is my closest stadium and I have a few Reds fan friends, and as a non-biased observer I just don't know what more you would want on a team before pushing a competitive window. 

 

Over the past two years, Puig is averaging 33 HRs, 85 Rs, 88 RBIs, 19 SBs, roughly .265 BA in closer to a full season's PAs (650). He also has a healthy walk rate. He's moving to a better park. He's been better v. RHP than LHP. Seems like a decent chance at a 3.0-4.0 WAR player.

 

Jesse Winker can flat out mash Righties. He's not a great defender, and more of a 2.0 WAR player, but he's a .400 OBP bat especially v. RHH. 

 

Eugenio Suarez put in a career year at 26-27 and is on a dream of a contract. I don't find anything that Suarez did last year to be a fluke. Moreso, I think there's ample evidence that he could be this fairly consistently, a 35 HR, .285 with great walks and 100 RBI hitter. I have him projected at over 4 WAR. 

 

Scooter Gennett fell off a bit late last year, but was still a 4.5 WAR player as a whole on the season. I think he plays a bit closer to 23/.290 than 27/.310, but he's still likely a 2.5-3.0 WAR player. I don't like the notion the Reds should just be looking to trade Gennett. Only if they get a truly worthwhile package. He's a huge asset. 

 

Jose Peraza had a great year last year and was able to put up a 2.7 WAR. He hit for average, stole bases, and even hit for a surprising amount of power and doubled his ISO. I'm not fully bought in, but he's good enough as a SS/Contact hitter that he's likely at least a 1.0-2.0 WAR hitter if his improvements don't fully stick.

 

Joey Votto was one of the worst players on the Reds last year, especially on the Infield. I still believe he has the perfect swing/approach to play late into his 30's. I think he rebounds. And even if he doesn't, he had a .417 OBP and 3.5 WAR last year. 

 

Tucker Barnhart is a league average player. But he's a league average player at a position that it's hard to be a league average player. And he's also on a very inexpensive contract. I'd project him for 1-2 WAR.

 

--

 

Luis Castillo as covered in this thread and in his own thread was GREAT after a certain point last year. If he puts in a full season of close to that he's a top 30 SP. Anthony Desclafani probably won't realistically stay healthy, but he's solid. 

 

Alex Wood's a very legitimate addition for 150 Innings. I'm not as negative as some are about Roark in Cincinnati. My take on that situation: Roark was always going to give up a HR when someone really got a hold of him. He's a soft contact guy. His HR/FB% will realistically go up, but with this line-up, you don't need a Starter to be "Fantasy Relevant" to win you games. A 4.50 like he's done on average the last two years over 30 Starts and 180 Innings will be great for the Reds. 

 

They also have a closer in Rasiel Iglesias. 

 

--

 

They're not a complete team, but they're a clear sleeper, and they have enough talent to do a lot of damage. They dont' have as many big names but the numbers that some of these players have produced the last few years speak for themselves. 

 

Let's keep in mind: Walt effin Jocketty has been the President of Baseball Operations in Cincinnati since 2015? Jocketty, who was the GM for the Cardinals for their reign of terror and who has what I like to call a "GM Tree" that currently includes former Cardinals GM/Current President John Mozeliak, current Cardinals GM Mike Girsch, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow, and Brewers GM David Stearns just to name a few. The Reds are under REALLY good management practices and have built quite a force of talent. 

 

If they can get 4 League Average starters and their players live up to my offensive expectations for most of them, they really could turn it around really fast. 

 

And from the more practical level that began this discussion, I just don't know what else you'd want to have before "going for it." They don't have the rotation of dreams and so if they're looking like a playoff team I bet they invest at the Trade Deadline in the Bullpen, but realistically if I had these 7 Offensive starters listed above there's just no way with how I'm projecting them that I'm viewing it as a GAP year. 

 

And I'm not all in. They're still on teh early part of the window, which means there's certain trades like high level prospects for 31+ YO SPs that I would not be willing to make. But signing Dallas Keuchel or AJ Pollock this year? I'm really hoping for their sake they get one or the other. You won't have to mortgage the future too much because the books are exquisite. Puig may play himself into a monster contract but ultimately if he wants to stay in Cincy it's probably just going to come down to that. They took on a lot of expiring money this year but it's expiring. The payroll is REALLY clean next year. 

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

They're not a complete team, but they're a clear sleeper. 

 

They don't have the rotation of dreams and so if they're looking like a playoff team I bet they invest at the Trade Deadline in the Bullpen, but realistically if I had these 7 Offensive starters listed above there's just no way with how I'm projecting them that I'm viewing it as a GAP year. 

 

I don’t disagree with the sleeper sentiment and would be elated if the stars align but I guess that it’s just my  stoic nature to expect that it will not happen. I try not to be pessimistic or optimistic about these things and never expect the best possible outcome but always support the smartest decisions. 

 

If they were to sign Pollack that would be a win now move I am down with and move the window but since I doubt that happens I don’t want them to dive in to a multi year deal to a starter when there is a better FA class next year.

 

Either way I am more excited about 2019 than I was in 17-18 but I still see 2020 as the big jump, especially with the pieces in place and payroll flexibility.

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2 hours ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

I don’t disagree with the sleeper sentiment and would be elated if the stars align but I guess that it’s just my  stoic nature to expect that it will not happen. I try not to be pessimistic or optimistic about these things and never expect the best possible outcome but always support the smartest decisions.  ...

 

You sound like a pre-2004 Red Sox fan here.  Sometimes a 2004 can happen.  It's the joy part of baseball.  Enjoy the ride because it really does look like the Reds are back on the rise.

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I think they need a starter as opposed to another Of  Schebler's no hell, but the overall offense should be pretty good.  The SP has a lot of question marks.

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6 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I think they need a starter as opposed to another Of  Schebler's no hell, but the overall offense should be pretty good.  The SP has a lot of question marks.

 

I agree in general, I just think Pollack at age is a better overall investment than Keuchel which is why I wouldn't consider it a bad move for the Reds.

 

I like Keuchel, and I think he has a chance of being a good asset to the Reds for a number of years, but an over 30 SP IS an investment I'd be very nervous aobut at this stage for the reds.

 

Basically, while I don't believe either likely, I see it more likely that a Keuchel contract ends in disaster, as opposed to Pollack who ultimately I think at worst will be worth the money. 

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the Reds added Sonny Gray. if he can get back to where he was in Oakland could that make the Reds contenders in the NL Central?

 

the rotation could be.. Gray, Luis Castillo, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Anthony DeSclafani.

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6 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

the Reds added Sonny Gray. if he can get back to where he was in Oakland could that make the Reds contenders in the NL Central?

 

Short answer:  No.

 

Longer answer:  No.  (1) There are the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals with better teams ahead of them.  (2) Gray is pitching in a mega-HITTER's park; not the pitching paradise in Oakland.  And his NY numbers are more in line with the Cincy setting and who he currently is. 

 

The Reds are trying to improve and are and props to them for same.  They should be a better team this season and fun for their fans to watch.  But they are, alas for them, in the NL Central.  Not the AL Central where they probably could contend if Cleveland has a few injuries this year.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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13 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Short answer:  No.

 

Longer answer:  No.  (1) There are the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals with better teams ahead of them.  (2) Gray is pitching in a mega-HITTER's park; not the pitching paradise in Oakland.  And his NY numbers are more in line with the Cincy setting and who he currently is. 

 

The Reds are trying to improve and are and props to them for same.  They should be a better team this season and fun for their fans to watch.  But they are, alas for them, in the NL Central.  Not the AL Central where they probably could contend if Cleveland has a few injuries this year.

 

I don't necessarily agree. I think the easiest team to forecast a turn-around are those that have pretty clear flaws. SPs were terrible last year, but Luis Castillo finished the last 4 months strong, and while Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, and Sonny Gray might not be studs, they are a compilation of veteran arms likely to keep the Reds in a lot of games. The infield is potentially spectacular. Yasiel Puig could potentially be a huge addition ever for one year.

 

The NL Central's tough, but the Reds are definitely a sleeper team. They're not any worse than the Brewers were this time two years ago. When you project their positions by WAR, I could easily create a WAR projection that puts the Reds roster, on paper, above the Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers. I did it for the offense a little bit back, and it really isn't that hard. The Reds have a lot of good offensive players. They've just had no pitching.

 

What's more, I don't think moving someone like Hunter Greene or Taylor Trammel for a Kluber is a good idea, but there are situations where (maybe not that exactly) but they move a major prospect much better than Downs or Long for a REAL SP if they are competitive around the end of July. 

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The Reds are definitely one of the teams I am hoping to have multiple players from on all of my teams.

 

Gennett, Suarez, Peraza, Votto could all be top 10 fantasy producers at their respective positions, Puig could be a top 15 - 20 OF, Kemp/Schebler/Winker can all settle into an OF2 (in deep leagues) or OF3-5 spot on your roster. Barnhart could be a viable starter OR a solid 2nd catcher in 2 catcher leagues.

 

I think Castillo and Wood will both be rosterable arms for the entire season. I see Castillo making a mini leap and giving us more quality starts than not. DeSclefani, Gray and Roark will all be owned in all leagues with I'd say 14 or more teams and will be worthwhile streamers in smaller leagues.

 

The bullpen isn't THAT amazing, but Iglesias should again be a top 15 or so closer.

 

The only good prospect of their's I could see coming up this season is Senzel, but I'd expect to see him in a Scott Kingery role (multi position guy, not starting that often) OR just getting traded to upgrade the rotation/bullpen.

 

All in all, 2nd best offense in the NL Central, 4th or 5th best rotation, probably the worst bullpen.

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Every single starter on the Reds last year besides Castillo had an ERA of 4.50 or worse. Bailey/Romano had a combined 5.70 ERA across 45 starts.  Gray pitching to a 4.20 ERA improves that by a full run and half.

 

They have made dramatic improvements to the rotation. Not by virtue of the pitchers being great...by virtue of how god awful they were last year.  The Reds offense had a higher OBP then the Brewers, Cards and Pirates. last year. 9th in the majors. That was with Billy Hamilton getting 556 PAs. It was their power last year that was below average. Only Scooter and Suarez hitting over 20 HRs.  Out Hamilton, In Puig/Kemp, a even moderate power bounce-back in power from Votto should improve that.

 

Yeah the NLC is very tough. Should be the thick of things though.

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