2ndCitySox

Yu Darvish 2019 Outlook

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2018 was basically a disaster for Darvish, who had just signed a fattt contract with the Cubs. Both real and fantasy baseball fans were excited to see what he could do, paired with very solid defense the Cubs provide. 

 

His 2017 season was very solid. About a 3.86 ERA, a 1.1 WHIP, and 210 k in a little over 180 innings, making him a nice #2 option. The year prior he was a 3.4 era pitcher with similar K/9, making him a solid but not elite #1. 

 

I think he can reproduce 2018, albeit with fewer IP. He seems to be a bit fragile. His current ADP is about 150 (pitcher selected before him was Cole hamels, and nick pivetta after), which seems ok given the risk involved. I'd take the plunge at that price, for hopes that he can stay healthy and give a solid 2017 type line. 

 

Projections: 160 IP, 3.6 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 180 K. Wins should be good to come by, QS maybe a little more iffy. 

 

There's a number of pitchers that can give you the above line, but Darvish does have the potential to give you a bit better. Of course, his arm could fly off in his first game of the season too. He's got a little Rich Harden in him .

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14 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

 

I think he can reproduce 2018, albeit with fewer IP.

Well that's not promising. 

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4 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Well that's not promising. 

Haha yes, we can expect under 40 innings from him this year then. 

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29 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Well that's not promising. 

Haha 2017 I meant.

Edited by 2ndCitySox
I'm stupid
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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Haha 2017 I meant.

Haha just giving you a hard time I know what you meant. I want to see how he looks in ST but I'm definitely interested in Darvish. When he's on he's a great source of strikeouts. 

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I think I have to keep him in my keep 15 forever league (6th round).

 

Kind of unfortunate, but the only other pitchers I'm keeping are Nola, Snell and Price.

 

Hard to trust him to stay healthy at this point but he could be a big source of Ks if he ever gets past it.

Edited by buccsfan22

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Perfect buy low candidate.  I think he rebounds close to 2017 and has something to prove this year.  I would rather have Darvish over Hamels if the draft came to me that way

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On 12/23/2018 at 9:25 AM, TheTruth024 said:

Perfect buy low candidate.  I think he rebounds close to 2017 and has something to prove this year.  I would rather have Darvish over Hamels if the draft came to me that way

 

Oh I don't think it's close - you'd for sure want Darvish over Hamels.  As mentioned, a perfect buy low candidate with high upside SP2 potential.  If his arm is healthy (which it appears to be) he should be someone a lot of smart owners should be targeting.

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I've got Darvish in my keeper league and I don't honestly think he's worth much more than SP4. I'm thinking around a 3.90 ERA kinda year in 2019. He's turning 33 next year and bounce back years get tougher at that age. I think his SP 1 & 2 years are over.

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4 hours ago, BCMarch10 said:

I've got Darvish in my keeper league and I don't honestly think he's worth much more than SP4. I'm thinking around a 3.90 ERA kinda year in 2019. He's turning 33 next year and bounce back years get tougher at that age. I think his SP 1 & 2 years are over.

AGREED.

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23 hours ago, BCMarch10 said:

I've got Darvish in my keeper league and I don't honestly think he's worth much more than SP4. I'm thinking around a 3.90 ERA kinda year in 2019. He's turning 33 next year and bounce back years get tougher at that age. I think his SP 1 & 2 years are over.

Hard to say. It seems like more and more pitchers are peaking at 30 or a little later. Look at the guys in the elite tier and 2nd tier of pitchers. Several are near 30 or older.  

 

If I could get him at SP4 price I would jump on him. Durability / mental fortitude (?) are a concern, but the upside as a high 2 is enticing. Especially if he's being taken around hamels and pivetta...

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Not 100% sure how I feel on him yet, even in 2017 he had a 4.2+ERA as late as mid September and then had 3 really good starts to end the year, but if you are wearing someone with a 4+ERA all season and when you look at the game logs, its not a consistent game to game where he would go like 5 and give up 3 and then maybe 6 and give up 2 and 6 and give up 3 and end up in the mid 3's, he was really up and down, either really solid outings or just flat out stinkers, which for the H2H crowd, becomes pretty problematic.

 

He missed all of 2015 with TJ, he missed most of last year with an elbow injury and he is 32 years old.  His best asset in the fantasy game is his ability to K batters, but honestly in this era, K guys are probably the easiest to come by.  His ceiling even in his good years from a ratio standpoint was never elite level.  His WHIP is what I would call in the 'good" but not great range, that 1.15ish number and his ERA some years was good also where it was below 3.50 but some years was slightly below average. 

 

I would want him no better than my P5 entering the season given age, health and even performance in recent years.   

 

 

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Right now, Darvish is my SP5 in my 16 team keeper league and I'm trying to trade him but no offers are coming. The silence is deafening. Hopefully spring training will bring some good news and I can get a 17th round draft pick for him. Seriously, nobody wants him right now. He's just a throw in. Sad times for Darvish owners like me.

 

Sure, I suppose it's possible that he gets healthy and bounces back and rises to SP2 level again, but I don't see that happening any time soon. Best of luck to those who are willing to wait for his turnaround. But, I don't see any indication that any significant turnaround will happen. However, based on his contract with the Cubs, he'll be given plenty of opportunities to earn his paycheck in the Chicago rotation. So, at least he has some time on his side.

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10 hours ago, BCMarch10 said:

Right now, Darvish is my SP5 in my 16 team keeper league and I'm trying to trade him but no offers are coming. The silence is deafening. Hopefully spring training will bring some good news and I can get a 17th round draft pick for him. Seriously, nobody wants him right now. He's just a throw in. Sad times for Darvish owners like me.

 

No one is trading for him because of the injury risk.  I own Darvish in my dynasty league and people have interest, they just want to see Spring to make sure he is healthy.  Let him start the season, prove he is healthy, and then the offers will come.  You would be a fool to cut/trade him now, because yes, at the moment his value is almost zero.  He still ends up top 40 SP, with an outside chance at top 20 IMO.

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I agree I would keep him if I were in a dynasty league. But, I'm not. I suppose I can always hope for the best before the keeper lock date hits.

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He is a buy low candidate.  ~10th round or later for me.

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If you draft early, there's potential for good value based on injury concern. If you draft after ST is well underway, he may have alleviated some of that uncertainty, and his ADP will quickly rise. 

 

Buy now if you can.

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Did he ever get over the pitch tipping tendencies?  He also needs better tempo on the mound.  Don't care if he throws 385663 different pitches.

 

I see his ADP having a wide variance come March.  If he is healthy he is still a threat for 250 Ks and a 3ish ERA.  More likely I see a 3.5ish ERA and a high 2's BB/9.

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I really like him this year. He threw a 45 pitch bullpen about a week ago and all reports indicate it went well and he feels good. He had an interview afterward and talked about how he feels like he's let fans down in Chicago so far and how he wants to prove his worth. He's costing people SP4/5 prices but would it really shock anyone if he pitched like a SP2 this year? His K potential alone bumps him up but I think the possibility for better ratios is there as well. 

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Injury questions and a tough division are two major downsides.  

 

Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, and Pirates all year.  All solid teams.

Edited by B&F

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2 hours ago, B&F said:

Injury questions and a tough division are two major downsides.  

 

Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, and Pirates all year.  All solid teams.

FTFY

 

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Good to hear Darvish saying he is healthy again and has his confidence back. Hopefully that translates into SP2 production this year. Would love to see it happen.

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I have to say that I’m very intrigued by Darvish now...

He’s definitely risky but his upside could be immense!

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