BrianM

What Did You Learn/What Will You Do Differently in '19?

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3 hours ago, mongidig said:

I ended up getting Ertz in 2 out of 4 leagues because the year before I was in TE wasteland. Grabbing these guy's in round 3 or 4 was a beautiful thing this year. Having to snag these guy's in round 2 next year is a whole different ball game. I'll happily wait a round or two for Kittle next year. 

 

 

 

That's a good point. I am in the finals of both my leagues without good TE's....but it sure sucks watching the big 3 go off every week while I'm just happy to get 7 points.

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18 hours ago, FooserX said:

Last year, I remember thinking towards the end of the year, that Ertz and Kelce NEEDED to be drafted next year.

 

This year, I was 1st in the draft, so had a chance to pick Kelce on the 2/3 turn....but got sucked into the Trey Burton hype...and ended up picking Jordan Howard instead of Kelce. Ugh.  The whole season I was in the TE wasteland...missing out on decent TE's, because I kept expecting Burton to come around. 

 

Next year, I will probably make it a point to draft Kelce/Ertz/Kittle.

 

The other thing I learned was do NOT listen to analysts, or rankings....go with my gut...especially when I'm watching lots of games and have a good feel for the players I like. So many times I would play the "pros" player, or not play someone based off rankings or hype....and for the most part, my gut was right about 75% of the time it seemed. 

I agree in both my main leagues Tight End production hurt my teams badly this year.  The difference between a Kelce, Ertz, Kittle and the rest was massive.  Unfortunately for some they thought they were solving the problem with Gronk, he was ADP top tight end and in my league was same price as Kelce.  

 

I had Engram as a cheap keeper in one league who flopped and then another TE was just a wasteland.  

 

 

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Everyone will be gunning for Kittle...His ADP will steadily move up and he will be the 2nd TE off the board in the 2nd round....Over Ertz and Gronk.

 

Media hype will drive the narrative and inflate his price. Gronk will be hammered. Plus Kittle is media and fantasy friendly (Like Shuster) which will further inflate his draft ranking. 

 

The TE carnage this year will cause most managers to over react and overdraft the TE position. We need to zig will the masses are zagging.

 

TE always needs to be a value play...Kittle wont be a value next year.

18 minutes ago, FooserX said:

 

That's a good point. I am in the finals of both my leagues without good TE's....but it sure sucks watching the big 3 go off every week while I'm just happy to get 7 points.

 

 

Edited by mar1kle

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Don’t draft players that will be awesome all season and then not show up in weeks 15/16

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2 minutes ago, mar1kle said:

Everyone will be gunning for Kittle...His ADP will steadily move up and he will be the 2nd TE off the board in the 2nd round....Over Ertz and Gronk.

 

Media hype will drive the narrative and inflate his price. Gronk will be hammered. Plus Kittle is media and fantasy friendly (Like Shuster) which will further inflate his draft ranking. 

 

The TE carnage this year will cause most TE to over react and overdraft this position. We need to zig will the masses are zagging.

 

TE always needs to be a value play...Kittle wont be a value next year.

 

 

Gronk doesn't deserve to be drafted before pick 100 next season, if he even comes back.

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I had a pretty solid season, but going into next year I think I want to try to be better at identifying the risky plays in the first 4 rounds or so and actively avoiding them (unless the price is right). Bell is holding out? DJ is coming off of an injury year and is playing on a terrible offense? Okay, just take AB or Gordon with the 4th overall pick instead of one of those guys. Ultimately, all of the guys in the first round are up there for a reason, so there is really no shame in taking the safer 1st round player over the riskier 1st round player who might have a higher ceiling. My 1/2/3/4 were DJ/Allen/Adams/Cooper. It could have just as easily been AB/McCaffrey/Adams/Ertz, and that would have felt a lot safer at the time while still nabbing a WR/RB for my first two picks.

 

I think the analysis that @Boudewijn did is particularly valuable, although I would be interested to see that type of analysis with a more historic sample size of previous years to be able to more clearly identify trends and outliers. Of course some particular players will deliver on their ADPs to a greater extent than others, but it is important to look at something like this to try to come up with a general player strategy in terms of when you should be looking at positional needs. It can sometimes be hard to assess the premiums/discounts that are inherent in ADP when comparing the players that are given dissimilar positional values, and most other players in a draft won't be analyzing that sort of thing as closely as they potentially could be, so try to take advantage of historical data to determine what those values actually are.

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One thing is to not be so cynical, I mean in the fantasy game I have a tendency to not want to "overpay" and overreact and be behind the production but rather out front.  Lindsey was one I should of invested more into but just didnt buy it from the outset.  

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6 minutes ago, devaster said:

Gronk doesn't deserve to be drafted before pick 100 next season, if he even comes back.

He was almost traded this year to Detroit, my guess is he will not be in a Patriots uniform next year, either will retire or will be traded.  

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Personally I dont see myself going for Gronk, but I absolutely still think he's drafted as a top 6 or 7 TE in my leagues. provided he's not playing for Arizona or something.    Ertz and Kelce are your sure things.  Kittle's probably TE3 overall right now.....then what?     Gronk is a shell, but people will thinks "well just maybe if........." and take a shot at him.   

Edited by BrianM

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4 hours ago, petekrum said:

Hopefully what everyone learned from the Jags defensive ineptitude is that taking a defense in the mid rounds is not a good strategy.

Yeah, but what are people going to think about the Bears?  I have them, and in my scoring format, they were 40+ points above the #2 ranked D, so that's almost 3 points per week.  Significant when you talk about defenses.  I actually had the crazy thought of using a keeper selection on them.  But in the end, I know I'll throw them back and somebody will reach in round 7 or 8 for them so I sadly won't be able to have them again.

 

1 hour ago, BrianM said:

 

For years this was me, it was BAD.    I'm still not 100% free of it, usually once or twice a year I'll have a few minutes of ranting about a bad beat, but i've definitely improved over time.     One thing that helped- finding a guy to vent with, and vice versa.   I'll text him about whatever s---'s going down (TNF opponent lights you up, bad trade offer, etc) so i dont get pent up about it.

My wife has commented that I'm often very moody on Sunday night.  It's no secret why.  I've tried to have better perspective about this fake game.  There are real life problems in this world - mass shootings, fires, tragedies, questionable leadership, etc.  Even in our own personal lives - illness, job security, children, etc. - there is so much more to worry about and value than what happens on the field on Sundays.  The fate of my fantasy team isn't all that important in the grand scheme of things.

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I will definitely take more risks during the season on my waiver pickups. I held onto guys like Jordan Reed and Devin Funchess way too long because I didn't want to regret dropping them if they started playing well. But in the process, I missed out on guys like Michel, Kittle, and Lindsay because I was too afraid to take the risk. If you don't think you'll ever start someone on a regular basis after a few weeks, don't be afraid to take some risks on guys with potential upside so that you get them before someone else does...if they don't pan out then just do the same with someone else until you find your league winner.

Edited by GoPackGo23

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28 minutes ago, jbj said:

I had a pretty solid season, but going into next year I think I want to try to be better at identifying the risky plays in the first 4 rounds or so and actively avoiding them (unless the price is right). Bell is holding out? DJ is coming off of an injury year and is playing on a terrible offense? Okay, just take AB or Gordon with the 4th overall pick instead of one of those guys. Ultimately, all of the guys in the first round are up there for a reason, so there is really no shame in taking the safer 1st round player over the riskier 1st round player who might have a higher ceiling. My 1/2/3/4 were DJ/Allen/Adams/Cooper. It could have just as easily been AB/McCaffrey/Adams/Ertz, and that would have felt a lot safer at the time while still nabbing a WR/RB for my first two picks.

 

@Boudewijn

 

I get what you're saying but you've got the benefit of hindsight now.    I don't think anyone knew how bad the Cardinals play calling would be.   Great backs still perform on bad offenses.    There was also plenty of people saying McCaffrey couldn't be a workhorse back and that Anderson would get some run.   Had that happened, it would have been just as easy to say that you should have avoided McCaffrey.    

 

Of the ones you drafted, only Cooper stands out to me as a risky play.   Coming off two bad years in a row.  

 

 

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23 minutes ago, CooL said:

My wife has commented that I'm often very moody on Sunday night.  It's no secret why.  I've tried to have better perspective about this fake game.  There are real life problems in this world - mass shootings, fires, tragedies, questionable leadership, etc.  Even in our own personal lives - illness, job security, children, etc. - there is so much more to worry about and value than what happens on the field on Sundays.  The fate of my fantasy team isn't all that important in the grand scheme of things.

 

Another good thing i started doing- probably 5 or 6 Sundays, at least, during the fall, i plan some kind of outing.   If I'm out, i dont compulsively check scores, but if i'm home, no matter what, I can't resist.      Helps maintain balance a bit.   I'll usually be able to watch the prime time games without much anxiety- Thursdays are too early to throw everything off, and by Sunday and Monday most times the results are close to locked in.   

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3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I get what you're saying but you've got the benefit of hindsight now.    I don't think anyone knew how bad the Cardinals play calling would be.   Great backs still perform on bad offenses.    There was also plenty of people saying McCaffrey couldn't be a workhorse back and that Anderson would get some run.   Had that happened, it would have been just as easy to say that you should have avoided McCaffrey.    

 

Of the ones you drafted, only Cooper stands out to me as a risky play.   Coming off two bad years in a row.  

 

 

I knew going into the draft that DJ seemed like a risky move after 2017 to take that high overall. I considered taking AB, but went against it because I wanted the potentially elite RB. I do agree that there were a couple of risks inherent to McCaffrey, but looking at the draft board, the other RBs in question in that range after my pick were Freeman, Howard, McCoy, and Mixon. Given that I would have needed to take a RB in the second round if I took a WR in the first, I think that CMC would have been the logical/safe choice going right there even without the hindsight. This is all very specific to the way that my team panned out, but if my takeaway is that if I am ever in a situation in the early rounds where it is "I can either take A player or B player, and A player could be better but feels riskier", I will try to go for the safer option. Anecdotally, had I gone into this draft with that approach, it would have been more fantasy lucrative for me.

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51 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

Don’t draft players that will be awesome all season and then not show up in weeks 15/16

Best post here.

 

As far as I’m concerned, Gurley was a borderline waste this year. What’s the point if he puts up a total dud in the quarters and doesn’t even play in the finals? That being said, it’s hard to predict. However, guys like Brees make it their life mission to lose people seasons in the playoffs. 

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32 minutes ago, CooL said:

My wife has commented that I'm often very moody on Sunday night.  It's no secret why.  I've tried to have better perspective about this fake game.  There are real life problems in this world - mass shootings, fires, tragedies, questionable leadership, etc.  Even in our own personal lives - illness, job security, children, etc. - there is so much more to worry about and value than what happens on the field on Sundays.  The fate of my fantasy team isn't all that important in the grand scheme of things.

 

Well if you focus on the mass shootings, fires, tragedies, etc I'm sure you're be a more cheery person on Sundays.

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5 hours ago, petekrum said:

Hopefully what everyone learned from the Jags defensive ineptitude is that taking a defense in the mid rounds is not a good strategy.

 

.i played myself in 2018 and gave the Jags an early pick in my keeper.  I thought i had a locktight roster and they were the icing on my championship cake.   I never ever did this for at least 10 years prior, was streaming from the time online leagues and easy waivers became a thing.  Never again.

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

 

Yep, that's another thought of mine.   Get some stuff down here that I can look back at- almost like speaking to your August self, who likely forgets everything you wanted to do coming out of the last season otherwise.  Meanwhile, you read 25 experts and 150 forum posters who lean one way on something, you start to shift that way too, even without realizing it.  

 

Another point to add to what we're both saying, specifically for those in keeper leagues...

 

One of the things I like to do in my post-fantasy season analysis, is to predict which players will be kept by opposing owners in my league. Playing with the same friends/owners year after year in my main league, I have a good idea of who will be kept based on player performance, owner tendencies, and common sense. I find this keeper analysis valuable to do now, as it can help narrow the focus on what players will be available to me during next season's draft. Worst-case scenario, I have a few predictions that are off, and I use the time in between keepers being set and the draft date, to do some additional analysis.

 

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Try to figure out what a player's true ceiling is and if they're worth having on your roster at all.  Starting RBs who can get you 90 yards on a good day and have no passing game involvement are basically TD dependent guys I don't even want on my team.  The Jordan Howards and Adrian Petersons of the world were bench warmers all season who I never wanted to have to rely on in my lineup.  Obviously I, like most other Howard drafters, bought into the hype of him being some all purpose back who would be central to the Bears offense, but if you feel in advance that an RB falls into this category you're probably better off looking elsewhere for upside.

Edited by CharlesCC2

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Gotta stick to drafting players on GOOD offenses. Makes a huge difference. Juju third round both my leagues was a huge difference. Also took cmac 8th pick and 9th pick both my leagues. I usually try to draft different in multiple leagues. This year I drafted similar in both and actually make the finals in both. Lost won, won the other. Also, if a rams WR falls, draft him. Woods has been my MVP. 

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49 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Another good thing i started doing- probably 5 or 6 Sundays, at least, during the fall, i plan some kind of outing.   If I'm out, i dont compulsively check scores, but if i'm home, no matter what, I can't resist.      Helps maintain balance a bit.   I'll usually be able to watch the prime time games without much anxiety- Thursdays are too early to throw everything off, and by Sunday and Monday most times the results are close to locked in.   

 

Same with always checking the scores.   And after using RedZone this season, I can hardly sit through a regular game with commercials anymore. 

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The huge mistake I made in my draft was gunning for the suspension discount with both Edelman and Ingram.  While Edelman immediately produced as a high-end WR2 on return, and Ingram was a reasonable flex option, having two guys I couldn’t start or trade for those first four weeks cost me my season. I wasn’t able to pick up the Lindsays and Ridleys early on to replace the injured guys (Freeman, Cook).  I won 6 of my last 7 games and still missed the playoffs.

 

I’m avoiding any guys with 4 week suspensions next season.  They just give you too little roster flexibility at the beginning of the season.

Edited by eg4190

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1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

Gotta stick to drafting players on GOOD offenses. Makes a huge difference. Juju third round both my leagues was a huge difference. Also took cmac 8th pick and 9th pick both my leagues. I usually try to draft different in multiple leagues. This year I drafted similar in both and actually make the finals in both. Lost won, won the other. Also, if a rams WR falls, draft him. Woods has been my MVP. 

I thought this too until recently. Then the Rams slowed down and Gurley dropped a huge dud and Cooks has been dropping duds. Saints slowed down and Brees has sucked, Thomas has sucked down the stretch, and Kamara has been mediocre for the most part. You then go to the other top 3 offense and Hill has sucked as well down the stretch while Kelce has put up duds in the semi finals and finals.

 

The top 3 offenses have been a farm for disappointment during the most important run.

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22 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I thought this too until recently. Then the Rams slowed down and Gurley dropped a huge dud and Cooks has been dropping duds. Saints slowed down and Brees has sucked, Thomas has sucked down the stretch, and Kamara has been mediocre for the most part. You then go to the other top 3 offense and Hill has sucked as well down the stretch while Kelce has put up duds in the semi finals and finals.

 

The top 3 offenses have been a farm for disappointment during the most important run.

 

Those offenses get you to your playoffs tho. That's all you can ask for in fantasy football.

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