BrianM

What Did You Learn/What Will You Do Differently in '19?

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27 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

I drafted Mahomes everywhere and he took us to 3 championship games in 4 leagues.

The point is that Mahomes was rarely drafted at a premium. I took him in the 10th or 11th round. Most leagues he was being drafted after pick 100 or going undrafted in some leagues.

 

Rivers was in that range as well and was very good this season. A lot of QB's that go later end up returning QB1 value.

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1 hour ago, howlin' 2 said:

I drafted Mahomes everywhere and he took us to 3 championship games in 4 leagues.

 

2 hours ago, Rickydragon said:

Just don’t draft a qb.  Complete waste of a position.  You can get qb production for free all throughout the year.  

 

The guy who took Mahomes in my league still won the championship (beating me) but it wouldnt have made any difference if he had Ryan or Ben instead. Its not hard to find good QB production. 

Edited by Evincar

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#1 Get your guys.  I can't stress this enough.  Use the popular ADP's to get an idea for the rest of the league and where to slot your guys.  If one of your guys is gaining steam and you still want him, get him a few rounds earlier.  Value drafting only gets you players to hold your team steady, not win your league.  Start your research in May and figure out which guys in the first 3-4 rounds won't lose your league but for the rest of the draft, figure out which ones will put you over the top.  I got laughed at for taking Bears D 2nd off the board the day after Mack was traded.  Last year I overdrafted Wentz and Ertz.   Do your research and trust your instinct on which guys will have big years.

 

#2 Stay Active until the end.  Fantasy football is a marathon, not a sprint.  I just won a league where only two guys on my winning starting lineup were drafted.  The rest were picked up as free agents throughout the year due to injuries.  You have to be researching every angle right after your draft ends until you're eliminated.  Everyone complains they have this great regular season until their team busts in the playoffs.  No matter how great you think your team is, you have to be relentless on trade and waiver wire opportunities. 

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14 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Davante Adams is good

 

Agreed, not sure he had a bad game all year.

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I learned to do anything possible to draft Gurley. Buy the damn first pick off a guy if you have to.

 

Edit: Or convince the league to play auction and bid everything cept $1 on all other positions lol

Edited by Kraptocracy

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4 minutes ago, Kraptocracy said:

I learned to do anything possible to draft Gurley. Buy the damn first pick off a guy if you have to.

 

Edit: Or convince the league to play auction and bid everything cept $1 on all other positions lol

Having solely Todd Gurley surrounded by bums will win you nothing. Ask the three Gurley owners in my league who (2) missed the playoffs and (3rd) got bounced week 15.

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Just now, Ffguy0087 said:

Having solely Todd Gurley surrounded by bums will win you nothing. Ask the three Gurley owners in my league who (2) missed the playoffs and (3rd) got bounced week 15.

It was a semi-attempt at a joke. Sorry!

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I think something that I learned this year was not to look too much into preseason hype. Especially with all of the training camp rumors and excitement about Rookie RB's this year. 

 

The Rookie RB phenomena in 2017-2018 is seeming like more of an outlier with how this season has turned out for guys like Penny and Royce Freeman. 

I probably won't be reaching for any rookies until after the 8th or 9th round next year. 

Edited by Gfycat

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19 minutes ago, Gfycat said:

I think something that I learned this year was not to look too much into preseason hype. Especially with all of the training camp rumors and excitement about Rookie RB's this year. 

 

The Rookie RB phenomena in 2017-2018 is seeming like more of an outlier with how this season has turned out for guys like Penny and Royce Freeman. 

I probably won't be reaching for any rookies until after the 8th or 9th round next year. 

*cough*RoJo*cough*

tenor.gif

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7 hours ago, Gfycat said:

I think something that I learned this year was not to look too much into preseason hype. Especially with all of the training camp rumors and excitement about Rookie RB's this year. 

 

The Rookie RB phenomena in 2017-2018 is seeming like more of an outlier with how this season has turned out for guys like Penny and Royce Freeman. 

I probably won't be reaching for any rookies until after the 8th or 9th round next year. 

 

7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

*cough*RoJo*cough*

tenor.gif

 

In fairness though, several rookie RB's were solid to excellent. Here are their RB rankings in overall points, for 1 point PPR...

 

Saquon (#3)

Lindsay (#13 despite being an undrafted free agent)

Chubb (#14 despite not starting until Week 7)

Hines (#28)

K.Johnson (#32 despite not playing since Week 11 due to injury)

Michel (#35)

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I’ve learned that every year there will be a WW pickup late in the season that will make a run. 

 

Beckham had one his rookie year, Tyreek had one last year and Damien Willams had one this year.   

 

Damien Williams was lights out during the fantasy run if you were luckily enough to pick him up. In my PPR league he went 17, 27, 27. 

  

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2 hours ago, ifly808 said:

I’ve learned that every year there will be a WW pickup late in the season that will make a run. 

 

Beckham had one his rookie year, Tyreek had one last year and Damien Willams had one this year.   

 

Damien Williams was lights out during the fantasy run if you were luckily enough to pick him up. In my PPR league he went 17, 27, 27. 

 

 

Agreed about late-season WW pickups in general. I recall picking up Tyreek late in his rookie year and him helping lead me to a title (he definitely wasn't on any WW's at all last season though). For Beckham his rookie year, he wasn't a late-season pickup in my main league (just checked the transaction logs and he was picked up off the WW less than an hour before his first game in Week 5, after missing the first 4 weeks with an injury, scored a TD and was on that owner's roster the rest of the season - and next few years as a keeper). But overall, the point definitely stands about WW pickups late in the season. 

 

As a side note, looking at Beckham's playoff run in his rookie season, that had to be the best playoff run for any WR...

Week 14: 12 catches - 143 yards - 3 TD (plus 19 punt return yards)

Week 15: 8 catches - 148 yards - 2 TD

Week 16: 12 catches - 185 yards - 1 TD

 

Edited by Corleone
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Mahomes had over 100 points more than the number 2 guy in fantasy. That’s around 6.25 points more per game. A big advantage in my book. I’ll take that with a high draft pick any day.

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12 minutes ago, blue42 said:

Mahomes had over 100 points more than the number 2 guy in fantasy. That’s around 6.25 points more per game. A big advantage in my book. I’ll take that with a high draft pick any day.

Looks like a similar situation to Watson. People will grab mahommes 3rd round and complain when he ends up as the QB2 or 3

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35 minutes ago, blue42 said:

Mahomes had over 100 points more than the number 2 guy in fantasy. That’s around 6.25 points more per game. A big advantage in my book. I’ll take that with a high draft pick any day.

 

Good luck finding the last QB who did that in consecutive seasons.  Hint: It doesn't happen. 

 

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23 hours ago, Rickydragon said:

The Mahones owner in my league got him off the wire and didn’t make the playoffs.  What’s your point?

That while very few qb's are worth a top 3 rd pick consistent points top 5 points from a qb can be a huge advantage. Mahomes was in the perfect storm. Creative offensive coach, poor defense and surrounded by top ;evel talent across the board on offense. A. Rodgers has the same scenario but health was the major drawback for GB all year. 

 

Been playing dynasty for a LOOONG time and a Marino , Moon , Peyton and now a Mahomes or A. Rodgers typically give you a 4 point a week advantage over even an avg QB1 . I'll take that every time and not worry about anything but a bye week or horrible game matchup. Next year I'll be targeting those two again. Eli should've been in the consideration but his line is garbage as well as his arm is a noodle nowadays. Should the Giants sign or trade for a couple of solid o-linemen then might give Eli a look but preferably they'd bring a Foles or something as an upgrade.

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1 hour ago, howlin' 2 said:

That while very few qb's are worth a top 3 rd pick consistent points top 5 points from a qb can be a huge advantage. Mahomes was in the perfect storm. Creative offensive coach, poor defense and surrounded by top ;evel talent across the board on offense. A. Rodgers has the same scenario but health was the major drawback for GB all year. 

 

Been playing dynasty for a LOOONG time and a Marino , Moon , Peyton and now a Mahomes or A. Rodgers typically give you a 4 point a week advantage over even an avg QB1 . I'll take that every time and not worry about anything but a bye week or horrible game matchup. Next year I'll be targeting those two again. Eli should've been in the consideration but his line is garbage as well as his arm is a noodle nowadays. Should the Giants sign or trade for a couple of solid o-linemen then might give Eli a look but preferably they'd bring a Foles or something as an upgrade.

You’re talking about one guy who had a generational type of year.  Guys aren’t gonna throw 48 td’s every year.  If you can predict that good luck.  But the point is that qb is the only position where you can stream production off the wire almost anytime you want.  You can draft a Ryan or Big Ben way late and get elite production.  I got Luck off the free agent pool before the raider game and rode him to the end.  The guys that drafted Watson, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Cam, Brady all wasted a top 5 round pick since they didn’t perform any better than the waiver wire guys.  Those are valuable picks that should be used on rb’s, receivers, or your te.   

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Mine will be simple.  Stop picking guys because ADP said so.  I went Fournette 9 in one league.  My heart was telling me to go CMC but my ADP kept saying people will laugh at me.  Next year, I don't give a ***** about ADP anymore.

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2 hours ago, Rickydragon said:

You’re talking about one guy who had a generational type of year.  Guys aren’t gonna throw 48 td’s every year.  If you can predict that good luck.  But the point is that qb is the only position where you can stream production off the wire almost anytime you want.  You can draft a Ryan or Big Ben way late and get elite production.  I got Luck off the free agent pool before the raider game and rode him to the end.  The guys that drafted Watson, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Cam, Brady all wasted a top 5 round pick since they didn’t perform any better than the waiver wire guys.  Those are valuable picks that should be used on rb’s, receivers, or your te.   

 

I try not to downgrade other people's leagues...but if you were in a league in which Andrew Luck was a free agent before the Raiders game, then that league stinks. Across the prior month's worth of games, from Weeks 4--7 (with no bye weeks involved), Luck had thrown for the following TD passes per game: 4, 3, 4, 4.

 

Any league that would allow that to remain on the WW is collectively insane and is not worthy of analysis. 

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6 hours ago, blue42 said:

Mahomes had over 100 points more than the number 2 guy in fantasy. That’s around 6.25 points more per game. A big advantage in my book. I’ll take that with a high draft pick any day.

 

Most people here will disagree with you. I agree with you. Across my leagues, Mahomes was between 6.33 to 6.96 PPG better than the #2 QB (Ben). That is significantly better than the PPG difference between any other position. People who downgrade that 1.) are not actually analyzing numbers and 2.) should play in 2QB leagues for more of a challenge. 

Edited by Corleone
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13 hours ago, Rickydragon said:

You’re talking about one guy who had a generational type of year.  Guys aren’t gonna throw 48 td’s every year.  If you can predict that good luck.  But the point is that qb is the only position where you can stream production off the wire almost anytime you want.  You can draft a Ryan or Big Ben way late and get elite production.  I got Luck off the free agent pool before the raider game and rode him to the end.  The guys that drafted Watson, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Cam, Brady all wasted a top 5 round pick since they didn’t perform any better than the waiver wire guys.  Those are valuable picks that should be used on rb’s, receivers, or your te.   

 

I have to ask how many teams are in your league for two reasons. One, Luck should not have been on the FA wire going into week 8 in any 10- or 12-team leagues. Through seven weeks, he had 20 TD and almost 2,000 pass yards. Two, you keep saying that you can stream production off the wire "almost anytime you want", and I just don't find that to be the case in my 12-team leagues. Sure, you might find a QB or two on the wire who put up big weeks (then go back to full suckage after), but using your own words, "If you can predict that, good luck." In my main league (keeper league), the top 10 QBs scored 295 points or better. The 16th ranked QB (highest scoring FA QB) scored 231...that's a difference of 4 points per week, which can be pretty significant. 

 

I'm not saying to draft Mahomes in the the 3rd round or any QB in the top 5-6 rounds. But I do challenge the notion that you can just stream QBs. I also challenge your position that Watson, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, nor Cam performed better than the waiver wire guys (which is what causes me to question how many teams are in your leagues). All five of those are ranked in the top 10 in my keeper league with standard QB scoring (ranking 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, respectively). So you're telling me that guys who picked Deshaun Watson in the 5th wasted a pick because he didn't perform better than WW guys? Come on now...Watson scored nearly 5.5 points more per week than the 16th ranked QB I mentioned above. 

 

It's not so much you saying that Watson, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, and Cam shouldn't have been picked in the top 5 rounds that furrows my brow. It's you saying those guys "didn't perform any better than the waiver wire guys." 

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10 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

Most people here will disagree with you. I agree with you. Across my leagues, Mahomes was between 6.33 to 6.96 PPG better than the #2 QB (Ben). That is significantly better than the PPG difference between any other position. People who downgrade that 1.) are not actually analyzing numbers and 2.) should play in 2QB leagues for more of a challenge. 

 

I don't see anyone questioning Mahomes' dominance this year. I see guys questioning his ability to keep it up and do the same or similar in 2019. I see guys calling for regression and calling for him to come back to the pack next season. As a Mahomes owner in a keeper league, I'm just hoping he can continue to be a top 3 QB next season, which I believe he will. 

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22 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I don't see anyone questioning Mahomes' dominance this year. I see guys questioning his ability to keep it up and do the same or similar in 2019. I see guys calling for regression and calling for him to come back to the pack next season. As a Mahomes owner in a keeper league, I'm just hoping he can continue to be a top 3 QB next season, which I believe he will. 

 

The guy we both commented on above seems to think that QB's aren't important at all, with statements such as "The guys that drafted Watson, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Cam, Brady all wasted a top 5 round pick since they didn’t perform any better than the waiver wire guys". As you mentioned with the PPG difference between QB's, he's flat out wrong. 

 

(and if he truly considers Luck a "waiver wire guy", that's bananas)

Edited by Corleone
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