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Aaron Jones 2019 Outlook

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So, watching Jones on tape I'm reminded a lot of Devonta Freeman including his penchant for injury. The main difference is that Freeman is being pounded as "the guy" in Atlanta where the Packers are being careful to not over-utilize Jones by keeping him in more of a committee. 

Looking at his stats, it looks like they figured things out and he ran in a more consistent role after the Packers by week. There are 7 games (weeks 8 through 14) that give us a really good impression of how the Packers ended up using him. Extrapolating those stats out over 16 games gives us...

 

  • 222 carries for 1,216 yards (5.5 ypc) and 16 TDs
  • 50 receptions for 377 yards (7.5 avg) and 2 TDs

 

These stats would place him above James Conner as my #8 RB, but these are likely lofty expectations.

Given Jones penchant for injury, I'm docking him 2 games. I also feel with defenses more focused on Jones, that 5.5 stat is dropping to around 5.2. 

I'm seeing like 200 carries for right about 1050 yards on the ground with 12 TDs. Through the air another 40 receptions for 300 yards and 1 TD

 

This puts him below my #15 RB Devonta Freeman who I just compared him to, but ahead of Chubb and Mack. 

 

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Can we trust LaFleur to do the right thing?  It took him most of the year to figure it out in TEN with DHenry.  I have little confidence in this supposed offensive guru...

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2 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Can we trust LaFleur to do the right thing?  It took him most of the year to figure it out in TEN with DHenry.  I have little confidence in this supposed offensive guru...

 

One potential difference is that LaFleur was part of the team to sign Deon Lewis, where he has no such "attachment" to Jamaal Williams. Ultimately, pass blocking and injuries are the two potential "gotchas" here, but I don't think LaFleur will be as attached to Jamaal as he was to Deon.

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5 hours ago, Jags02 said:

So, watching Jones on tape I'm reminded a lot of Devonta Freeman including his penchant for injury. The main difference is that Freeman is being pounded as "the guy" in Atlanta where the Packers are being careful to not over-utilize Jones by keeping him in more of a committee. 

Looking at his stats, it looks like they figured things out and he ran in a more consistent role after the Packers by week. There are 7 games (weeks 8 through 14) that give us a really good impression of how the Packers ended up using him. Extrapolating those stats out over 16 games gives us...

 

  • 222 carries for 1,216 yards (5.5 ypc) and 16 TDs
  • 50 receptions for 377 yards (7.5 avg) and 2 TDs

 

These stats would place him above James Conner as my #8 RB, but these are likely lofty expectations.

Given Jones penchant for injury, I'm docking him 2 games. I also feel with defenses more focused on Jones, that 5.5 stat is dropping to around 5.2. 

I'm seeing like 200 carries for right about 1050 yards on the ground with 12 TDs. Through the air another 40 receptions for 300 yards and 1 TD

 

This puts him below my #15 RB Devonta Freeman who I just compared him to, but ahead of Chubb and Mack. 

 

 

I have him down for about 1,400 total yards and 14 combined TD, glad to see others are in the same ballpark. If (and it's a big if) he can stay healthy, this could be an absolute BEAST of a year.

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2 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Can we trust LaFleur to do the right thing?  It took him most of the year to figure it out in TEN with DHenry.  I have little confidence in this supposed offensive guru...

 

In this case, i don't think its hard to improve over whatever the hell Mike McCarthy was doing the last couple of years.     That's no guarantee LaFleur isn't also an idiot, its always smart to be skeptical of a new staff to some degree. 

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7 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

It took him most of the year to figure it out in TEN with DHenry.  

As far as I know the story, Henry figured himself out somewhere halfway down the season.

https://www.titansonline.com/news/tough-love-eddie-george-lit-a-fire-under-titans-rb-derrick-henry-and-he-s-been-a

For the Packers though, LaFleur has already announced a RBBC of sorts:

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/news/packers-hc-matt-lafleur-planning-using-running-back-committee-approach

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17 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

As far as I know the story, Henry figured himself out somewhere halfway down the season.

https://www.titansonline.com/news/tough-love-eddie-george-lit-a-fire-under-titans-rb-derrick-henry-and-he-s-been-a

For the Packers though, LaFleur has already announced a RBBC of sorts:

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/news/packers-hc-matt-lafleur-planning-using-running-back-committee-approach

 

Aaron Rodgers will run the offense in GB. Do you disagree? I think Rodgers will basically have freedom to run the offense. Lafleur will be there to help Rodgers but I basically view Rodgers as the OC.

 

The issue with Henry last year was a confluence of events. Henry started as the supposed starter but the plan was to split reps with Lewis, I think lafleur wanted to be a RBBC but when the OLine got hurt and Henry wasn't killing it the first few games he tried Dion Lewis then Henry got it together as the OLine got healthy and after Henrys record setting game lafleur settled in with him as RB and they ended the season really well.

 

I think Jones will separate himself from the other RBs and become the bellcow just not sure if that will be to start the season or Midway through the season.

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11 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Aaron Rodgers will run the offense in GB. Do you disagree? I think Rodgers will basically have freedom to run the offense. Lafleur will be there to help Rodgers but I basically view Rodgers as the OC.

He will most likely have a large freedom to call or change the plays, but I don't think he controls the personnel to that extent. That just doesn't seem practical, for one.

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24 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

He will most likely have a large freedom to call or change the plays, but I don't think he controls the personnel to that extent. That just doesn't seem practical, for one.

 

I think he will have input in just about every situation. If Rodgers thinks Williams needs to be in to pass block I'm pretty sure he will express that, a lot of that could be done in game planning during the week.

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4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I think he will have input in just about every situation. If Rodgers thinks Williams needs to be in to pass block I'm pretty sure he will express that, a lot of that could be done in game planning during the week.

 

I'm kind of with boude here. 

 

Generally an established QB will let the OC know who their guy is and have a lot of control at the line, but they aren't calling timeouts to sub in the RB they prefer on a given play. 

 

They just do the play they like and run it the way they think is right with the personnel on the field. 

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He has real promise but the sharing thing has me nervous. I think he's too pricey for the risk right now...

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In an offense like this, Jones will get more than enough touches to do damage.   Jamaal Williams is a backup talent.    You use him because he's versatile, and because its just smart to have multiple RB's involved in just about any offense.      He should not be a 1B here though.   

Best indicator i see from last year is that Williams was believed to be the superior receiver to Jones, yet Jones caught only one less pass, in four less games.   

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IIRC, last year's Jones thread had some pretty in-depth discussion and analysis concluding that Jones was actually fine at pass blocking while Williams was actually a bit overrated.  Am I remembering correctly, or no?

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13 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

IIRC, last year's Jones thread had some pretty in-depth discussion and analysis concluding that Jones was actually fine at pass blocking while Williams was actually a bit overrated.  Am I remembering correctly, or no?

 

That's right.  In fact, I believe that there was some metric showing Jones to be better at it.  

 

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i think the best thing for aaron jones if you want him to last all 16 games is 14 carries and 5 to 6 targets per game.Jamal williams will get some work as well because aaron jones is just not going to last as a 22 to 25 touch a game rb (not many people can do that)

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I believe dexter William's will earn a little role (very small role) he was a very good rb in college but had academic issues and was stuck behind one of the nation's leading rushers for a couple years 

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8 hours ago, K197040 said:

 

That's right.  In fact, I believe that there was some metric showing Jones to be better at it.  

 

 

Disclaimer: I have no idea how they get to that, or what it means. Is 82 good? is 69 bad? Are all three pretty much the same?

Is anyone an expert on this?

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Disclaimer: I have no idea how they get to that, or what it means. Is 82 good? is 69 bad? Are all three pretty much the same?

Is anyone an expert on this?

Nobody knows how pff grades lol. We can’t even say when the rb is supposed to block or when they abort the delayed wheel route to pick up the blitz etc. I do think it’s interesting Williams had such a high grade last year and now has a low grade. Either he had a sever decrease in pass blocking skill or the guys assigning the grades aren’t very good

Edited by Panthers8912
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2 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Nobody knows how pff grades lol. We can’t even say when the rb is supposed to block or when they abort the delayed wheel route to pick up the blitz etc. I do think it’s interesting Williams had such a high grade last year and now has a low grade. Either he had a sever decrease in pass blocking skill or the guys assigning the grades aren’t very good

I guess this is where viewing film comes in handy (and a crapload of time and experience, because recognising what is a really good block is not that easy).

As much time as I waste on Fantasy, I'll leave that to others :)

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So, based on all that, no clear indicator of whether or not pass protection will hurt or help Jones this year.   Carry on!

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1. I am assuming LaFleurs and Rodgers has come to some mutual understanding on playcalling philosophy and how to run the offense.

2. As they build trust in each other, perhaps Rodgers will humble himself a bit - he is an egomaniac.

3. If 1 and 2 happen, there is a strong possibility that Jones studs the hell out.

4. I am going to buy that 1 and 2 happens.  Targeting Jones right where his ADP is because of the various risks but I see major upside. 

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16 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

1. I am assuming LaFleurs and Rodgers has come to some mutual understanding on playcalling philosophy and how to run the offense.

2. As they build trust in each other, perhaps Rodgers will humble himself a bit - he is an egomaniac.

3. If 1 and 2 happen, there is a strong possibility that Jones studs the hell out.

4. I am going to buy that 1 and 2 happens.  Targeting Jones right where his ADP is because of the various risks but I see major upside. 

 

I'm not worried about what his usage will be at all.   My only concern is his durability. 

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3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I'm not worried about what his usage will be at all.   My only concern is his durability. 

 

Third year as a pro....perhaps he has learned how to recovery and prepare his body for this type of a living.  We have seen this time and time again from college athletes transitioning to the pro game - in many sports.  I'd assume he is going to miss 2 games this season +/- 2

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