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Aaron Jones 2019 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, NBatum88 said:

 

Jones is the #4 ranked RB on the season that makes him an RB1. Every RB1 will have RB3 type weeks.

From reading this forum you guys are making it seem like Jones is like ranked 30 on the season or something. You guys probably drafted him in the 3rd round and you're getting 1st round value and still complaining I have no words

Most RB1s don't have backups that get more touches than them

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11 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Williams was out for 2 of those weeks. In week 3 he actually outsnaped jones. Outsnapped Jones again today too. Jones has also been getting saved by TDs. Watch the games stop looking at the box score. This situation is looking murky. If you don't see it then you aren't very good at this.

 

I've been watching the Packers, aaron jones, and jamaal williams for years now. Aaron Jones was never going to get 20 carries every week. But he can get 10-15 carries and 3-5 catches a game. With that kind of volume, he has proven that he can put up low-end RB1/high-end RB2 numbers. With his draft position in the early 30s, that's a pretty good return on your draft investment. 

 

Look, if Aaron Jones was going to be the only guy and getting 20 carries and 10 targets every week then you wouldn't have been able to get him in the 3rd round. Even with Jamaal being a factor, Jones can still be a back end RB1/high end RB2, which is exactly what he was drafted to be. Even tonight, 9 times out of 10, he's going to catch that passing TD and he would've had 14+ points tonight.

 

Jamaal played the entire year last year with Aaron Jones and Jones still had enough volume to be a low end RB1.

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I hate to overreact in situations like these, but let's face it with a 6 game sample size his rushing/receiving yardage figures are:

Week 1: 39/0

Week 2: 116/34

Week 3: 19/4

Week 4: 21/37

Week 5: 107/75

Week 6: 47/13

I'll let you guys decide how to play this going forward, but we may need a "certain kind of doll" to Free Aaron again.

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Edited by Newtown

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Just now, NBatum88 said:

 

I've been watching the Packers, aaron jones, and jamaal williams for years now. Aaron Jones was never going to get 20 carries every week. But he can get 10-15 carries and 3-5 catches a game. With that kind of volume, he has proven that he can put up low-end RB1/high-end RB2 numbers. With his draft position in the early 30s, that's a pretty good return on your draft investment. 

 

Look, if Aaron Jones was going to be the only guy and getting 20 carries and 10 targets every week then you wouldn't have been able to get him in the 3rd round. Even with Jamaal being a factor, Jones can still be a back end RB1/high end RB2, which is exactly what he was drafted to be. Even tonight, 9 times out of 10, he's going to catch that passing TD and he would've had 14+ points tonight.

 

Jamaal played the entire year last year with Aaron Jones and Jones still had enough volume to be a low end RB1.

So I watched a lot of the games from last year cause I was on the opposite end of this and had Williams. From what I remember toward middle-end of the year jones was starting to really run away with it. Williams was still there but jones was getting the majority of touches and he was starting to get involved in the passing game more. When you see a snap count that favors Williams in week 3. Then a monster game from jones last week and now again first week back Williams outsnaps him again? To me that looks like a trend in the wrong direction. That fumble and dropped ball if they trusted jones and looked at him as their #1 guy he would have been right back in there. Just like Chris Carson and his fumbling problems this year. Again this situation is looking murky. Williams playing so many snaps in the 4th quarter with the game on the line is what gets me worried even more than the touches. The coach is saying he doesn’t trust a guy that just scored 4 tds last week.

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15 minutes ago, Novaray said:

Most RB1s don't have backups that get more touches than them

 

Week 1: Jones 14 touches, Jamaal 7 touches

Week 2: Jones 27 touches, Jamaal 12 touches

Week 3: Jones 11 touches, Jamaal 14 touches

Week 6: Jones 15 touches, Jamaal 18 touches.

Jones average: 16.75 touches. Jamaal average: 12.75 touches

Jones 57% Jamaal 43%

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2 minutes ago, NBatum88 said:

 

Week 1: Jones 14 touches, Jamaal 7 touches

Week 2: Jones 27 touches, Jamaal 12 touches

Week 3: Jones 11 touches, Jamaal 14 touches

Week 6: Jones 15 touches, Jamaal 18 touches.

Jones average: 16.75 touches. Jamaal average: 12.75 touches

Jones 57% Jamaal 43%

Basically a 50/50 split and that trend is favoring jamaal. And I’d like to see snap count #s. Those matter too. Williams seems like he’s always out there. Again all these stats aren’t really helping what your trying to sell.

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28 minutes ago, David Aames said:

No...we are seeing Jones for what he is when Jamaal is there. You keep forgetting Jamaal was hurt. Jones is a shell of himself when Jamaal is there

 

I mean there's an entire year sample size of when both Jones and Jamaal were playing i.e. last year and Jones looked fine to me

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Just now, StevenSC400 said:

Basically a 50/50 split and that trend is favoring jamaal. And I’d like to see snap count #s. Those matter too. Williams seems like he’s always out there. Again all these stats aren’t really helping what your trying to sell.

 

I'm saying that even with just 10-15 carries and 3-5 catches a game Jones has proven that he can be a low-end RB1/high end RB2 which is still great return on draft investment. Sorry that you guys aren't getting 20+ carries every game but he's still very valuable.

 

I don't own any shares of either Jones or Jamaal anywhere in my leagues so I have no stake in this backfield. Just trying to ease the panic because people here are saying jamaal is better or that aaron jones is an RB3 which are just not true

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7 minutes ago, NBatum88 said:

 

I mean there's an entire year sample size of when both Jones and Jamaal were playing i.e. last year and Jones looked fine to me

 

How many games last year did Williams out touch Jones? 

Edit:  Answering my own question... None.  None games.  And more worrying, when Jones was having his best stretch of last year, Williams was barely touching the ball.  Check out, for example, Williams' touches from October 7 - December 9, 2018:

Williams' touches:  8, 7, 4, 9, 3, 1, 1, 11, 4 (5.33 avg)

Williams' touches this year;  7, 12, 14, 18 (12.75 avg)

Notice a difference?  

Edited by Rainyy

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6 minutes ago, NBatum88 said:

 

I'm saying that even with just 10-15 carries and 3-5 catches a game Jones has proven that he can be a low-end RB1/high end RB2 which is still great return on draft investment. Sorry that you guys aren't getting 20+ carries every game but he's still very valuable.

 

I don't own any shares of either Jones or Jamaal anywhere in my leagues so I have no stake in this backfield. Just trying to ease the panic because people here are saying jamaal is better or that aaron jones is an RB3 which are just not true

So Im not saying Jamaal is better or that jones is a RB3. Im just saying that williams has a fairly significant impact on jones value. Last week everyone was screaming here how williams is a non factor and thats just simply not true. He's going to be a thorn in jones side all year long. I can somewhat see your point based on draft value but again we are looking to score a home run here. Were not trying to hit a single. Also just watching this all year long if this is how its going to go is going to get old fast.

Edited by StevenSC400
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Jones averaged 11.7 carries a game and 3.2 receptions a game last year which was good for the 15th overall RB on a per game basis.

He's averaging 14.25 carries a game and 2.5 receptions a game this year in games with Jamaal Williams playing.

I think there's a decent shot he finishes the season in the 10-15 range if he stays healthy.

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2 minutes ago, NBatum88 said:

Jones averaged 11.7 carries a game and 3.2 receptions a game last year which was good for the 15th overall RB on a per game basis.

He's averaging 14.25 carries a game and 2.5 receptions a game this year in games with Jamaal Williams playing.

I think there's a decent shot he finishes the season in the 10-15 range if he stays healthy.

You gotta take context into the situation man. As Rainny noted above, Jones best stretch by far last year came from like weeks 6-14 when Williams was reduced to 5-7 touches a game. End thread

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1 minute ago, NBatum88 said:

Jones averaged 11.7 carries a game and 3.2 receptions a game last year which was good for the 15th overall RB on a per game basis.

He's averaging 14.25 carries a game and 2.5 receptions a game this year in games with Jamaal Williams playing.

I think there's a decent shot he finishes the season in the 10-15 range if he stays healthy.

 

This is pretty misleading.  Jones and Williams' 2018 seasons were thee tale of two halves.  Jones was a RB3 for the first 4-5 games of the season when Williams and him were in a time share.  

Then Jones' production shot up in the following 9 weeks, while Williams barely touched the ball (like avg 5-6 touches per game).  That portion of the season boosts Jones' average.  But he was also the unquestioned lead back for that portion of the season, and was in a bellcow time share.  Not anymore.  

 

 

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the difference between last year and this year is that Jones did his damage as the lead back last year. He is no longer the lead back this year. The new coach came right out from the get go(february) and said this is a split backfield and compared them to the saints backfield a few years ago. It is clear he wants to use both of them equally. Gb's old coach did not do this. That is why u see Jamaal getting a much bigger percentage than he did last year. This new coach seems to trust Jamaal a little more than he does Jones. The 4th qtr tonight was telling..I think it will be like this for the rest of the year. Jamaal is not going anywhere. They like him and they trust him....55/45 percent in favor of williams. RIP Jones

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Just now, David Aames said:

the difference between last year and this year is that Jones did his damage as the lead back last year. He is no longer the lead back this year. The new coach came right out from the get go(february) and said this is a split backfield and compared them to the saints backfield a few years ago. It is clear he wants to use both of them equally. Gb's old coach did not do this. That is why u see Jamaal getting a much bigger percentage than he did last year. This new coach seems to trust Jamaal a little more than he does Jones. The 4th qtr tonight was telling..I think it will be like this for the rest of the year. Jamaal is not going anywhere. They like him and they trust him....55/45 percent in favor of williams. RIP Jones

 

well the Packers are running the ball more this year than last year. They were literally 32nd in the NFL last year in running plays per game. So even if Jones is getting less % of the carries, the total pie is bigger this year. So I think he can still get enough volume to be a 10-15 ranked RB in fantasy this year. Again, I never said that Jones is going to get 90%+ of the work and getting 20 carries a game. I'm just saying that he's still got a lot of value even with a 50-60% of the workload.

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2 minutes ago, David Aames said:

the difference between last year and this year is that Jones did his damage as the lead back last year. He is no longer the lead back this year. The new coach came right out from the get go(february) and said this is a split backfield and compared them to the saints backfield a few years ago. It is clear he wants to use both of them equally. Gb's old coach did not do this. That is why u see Jamaal getting a much bigger percentage than he did last year. This new coach seems to trust Jamaal a little more than he does Jones. The 4th qtr tonight was telling..I think it will be like this for the rest of the year. Jamaal is not going anywhere. They like him and they trust him....55/45 percent in favor of williams. RIP Jones

 

Bring out your knife and fork for crow end year.   See ya then

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10 minutes ago, dakimbell said:

You gotta take context into the situation man. As Rainny noted above, Jones best stretch by far last year came from like weeks 6-14 when Williams was reduced to 5-7 touches a game. End thread

 

I was just stating the fact that his volume has stayed consistent last year and this year. Even though Jamaal may be getting more carries, Jones is still getting his

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4 minutes ago, Tghetty said:

 

Bring out your knife and fork for crow end year.   See ya then

ignoring what you saw tonight?

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28 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

How many games last year did Williams out touch Jones? 

Edit:  Answering my own question... None.  None games.  And more worrying, when Jones was having his best stretch of last year, Williams was barely touching the ball.  Check out, for example, Williams' touches from October 7 - December 9, 2018:

Williams' touches:  8, 7, 4, 9, 3, 1, 1, 11, 4 (5.33 avg)

Williams' touches this year;  7, 12, 14, 18 (12.75 avg)

Notice a difference?  

 

It doesn't matter. Even if Jamaal is getting 50 carries a game, as long as Jones still gets his 10-15 carries and 3-5 targets a game, Jones will still be an RB1/RB2. That's what i'm trying to tell you guys.

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1 hour ago, Nguvocity said:

Matt Lafeur loves using the hot hand approach. Each back is guaranteed 10+ touches weekly. I think Jones will get the start but they will spell each other. It’s going to be a similar backfield to 49ers. With Coleman=Jones and Breida = Williams.

 

Should also note before In week 3, Williams outsnapped Jones 

Yeah, that’s the opposite, though. Breida is the explosive Jones. Coleman is the.. Williams that won’t go away? 

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2 minutes ago, NBatum88 said:

 

It doesn't matter. Even if Jamaal is getting 50 carries a game, as long as Jones still gets his 10-15 carries and 3-5 targets a game, Jones will still be an RB1/RB2. That's what i'm trying to tell you guys.

 

Are you implying the Packers will run the ball 65 times in a game?  

I just don't see Jones sustaining that kind of volume if the split remains 50/50 with Williams.  35 RB touches is a ton to give out. And this is without mentioning there is a very negative trend for Jones - Williams has progressively got more touches as the season has gone on.  This could possibly end up 60-40 for Williams for all we know.  Or 70-30.  

 

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Just now, Rainyy said:

 

Are you implying the Packers will run the ball 65 times in a game?  

I just don't see Jones sustaining that kind of volume if the split remains 50/50 with Williams.  35 RB touches is a ton to give out. And this is without mentioning there is a very negative trend for Jones - Williams has progressively got more touches as the season has gone on.  This could possibly end up 60-40 for Williams for all we know.  Or 70-30.  

 

 

I was just trying to illustrate a point. Not being literal lol. Just saying that Jones has been getting the same volume as last year even with jamaal getting more carries.

Yeah if Jones gets only 30% of the volume and the Packers don't sustain their current volume of running the ball as a team, then I would agree with you that Jones value will take a big hit. Honestly if you guys are all convinced that Jamaal is going to get 60-70% of the work then you should trade Jones to someone who has a more optimistic view on him.

If Williams out-touches Jones by the end of the year (barring any injury) I'll eat crow for sure 

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To be honest, Jones has only been a RB1 because of the 1-2 yd TD runs he’s been getting. His actual runs are terrible. 4 out of 6 games he’s had less than 50 yards rushing. Fantasy owners are banking on a short yard TD because Jones isn’t running the ball at an elite level. He is mixing in some catches for PPR leagues. But I think we are fooled with how many TD’s he has versus how well he is actually running the ball...which is not good.

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i cant stress this enough.....watch tonights game! it is very telling. Jamaal Williams is here to stay. This isnt last year. And yes, Jones has been very TD dependent in fantasy

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25 minutes ago, Athebaby7 said:

To be honest, Jones has only been a RB1 because of the 1-2 yd TD runs he’s been getting. His actual runs are terrible. 4 out of 6 games he’s had less than 50 yards rushing. Fantasy owners are banking on a short yard TD because Jones isn’t running the ball at an elite level. He is mixing in some catches for PPR leagues. But I think we are fooled with how many TD’s he has versus how well he is actually running the ball...which is not good.

Nothing about these scoring plays look like what you described. He demonstrates strong vision and elusive movement.

Your rhetoric implies he's some plodder getting 1 yard goalline TDs off of power runs up the gut. He actually moves very well in space and often rips off large chunks of yardage as both a runner and a passcatcher.

His usage is inconsistent, his actually play isn't. He passes the eyeball test with flying colors.

You're so far off from reality that its straight up dishonest.

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