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Aaron Jones 2019 Outlook

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I like the odds of a healthy Jones being a strong producer.   I do worry about durability as well, but i don't see Jamaal Williams flying off of boards.  He's an easy handcuff in a league with a deep bench.   

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  • durability
  • usage
  • 1 drug toke away from suspension

 

These things have me leery of a RB I would otherwise target. Still might, pending the cost. 

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Love Aaron Jones this year. Looked electric in 2018. The lead back on what should be a high scoring offense with plenty of room to run thanks to a passing game led by Aaron Rodgers. Assuming health of course, if Jones  plays like he did in 2018 he’s a lock for a top 12 RB1 finish, with top 8 upside.

 

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one thing that needs to be said very loudly in this thread is that this kid, while a potential stud, plays 6 games vs probably THE hardest run defenses being in the NFC north. The Lions are going to be a top 5 unit, the bears are the bears and the vikings are always a huge test. Not saying to stay away but be cautious. His playoff schedule is brutal too

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4 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

one thing that needs to be said very loudly in this thread is that this kid, while a potential stud, plays 6 games vs probably THE hardest run defenses being in the NFC north. The Lions are going to be a top 5 unit, the bears are the bears and the vikings are always a huge test. Not saying to stay away but be cautious. His playoff schedule is brutal too

Good info, though I sometimes feel like that kind of stuff amounts to overthinking. If the Packers offense is really good, and Aaron Jones is a better than average RB, their schedule shouldn’t matter much. How many times have we benched a player based on matchup only to watch them make us regret it?

And are we downgrading Dalvin Cook, Keryon Johnson, Cohen, Montgomery, for the same reasons? 

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4 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Good info, though I sometimes feel like that kind of stuff amounts to overthinking. If the Packers offense is really good, and Aaron Jones is a better than average RB, their schedule shouldn’t matter much. How many times have we benched a player based on matchup only to watch them make us regret it?

And are we downgrading Dalvin Cook, Keryon Johnson, Cohen, Montgomery, for the same reasons? 

my answer....yes. This isn't speculation on my part, it's fact. This division is likely going to be the stiffest in all of football against the run. Do I avoid them? Absolutely not. I'm just saying if you're stuck between two equally attractive options, it's a tie breaker you may want to consider

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Sorry, no. It is total speculation, not fact. Reasonable speculation, but no more. Defenses turn out to be better or worse than expected quite a lot. And good players often play well against good defenses anyway. IMO schedule is a tiny factor at most in determining a player's draft value. 

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If he plays a full season his floor would be Eddy Lacy’s best season: 1600 total yards and 13 TDs.

 

But, the odds of him surviving the season without injury are slim. 

He sprained his MCL twice in 2017 and missed 3 games with less than 100 touches that year.

Last year he sprained his MCL and missed two games after only 159 touches.

At UTEP he only played 2 games his junior year because of an ankle injury.

Thats major injuries in 3 of his last four football seasons.

The talent is massive and I think he’ll put up top-line RB numbers when he’s healthy. Just make sure you cuff him. 

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Just reading through camp observations and they seem to be using jones a lot. I know lefleur said it would be a committee but all the observations seem to be about Jones. Using him in the passing game also which is very promising.

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13 hours ago, ellie826 said:

Just reading through camp observations and they seem to be using jones a lot. I know lefleur said it would be a committee but all the observations seem to be about Jones. Using him in the passing game also which is very promising.

Yeah the reports are simply glowing right now.

I can't embed tweets on my desktop, but to summarize some 'beat tweets' this morning:

Rodgers teased Jones last year for being chubby and he changed his diet and took better care of himself...went from 10% body fat to a "reported" 5% now...

Rodgers: "I think he's leaned out, he's looking good with his running and abilities out of the backfield"

Jones: "(LaFleur is) gonna be putting me out there at wide receiver or using me in  different way in the passing game"

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Can't say I love the addition of Grant and the fact that Riddick is also visiting.

 

Here's another hopeful tweet, let's hope Jones doesn't loose his top spot during camp...

 

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Jones is yet another rb that I've read now has a hamstring issue.  His backup Jamal Williams also has a hamstring issue.  Jones was a guy that I was targeting to be my rb2 in round 3 or 4 so hopefully he can return to the field soon.

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15 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Jones is yet another rb that I've read now has a hamstring issue.  His backup Jamal Williams also has a hamstring issue.  Jones was a guy that I was targeting to be my rb2 in round 3 or 4 so hopefully he can return to the field soon.

Hopefully it is nothing too serious (I've read that it is not to the level of Williams' hamstring issue, which has kept him out for at least 4 practices). Hamstrings are tricky but hopefully GB handles it prudently. I remember Saquon having a hamstring issue in camp last season, and even though it was said not to be super-serious, here is how the Giants handled it (very cautiously):

"Barkley suffered a hamstring strain Aug. 13 and was held out of the final three preseason games, returning to practice on a limited based Aug. 22 before upping his involvement last week."
https://www.nj.com/giants/2018/09/giants_saquon_barkley_after_hamstring_injury_im_re.html

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kid's gonna win leagues this year based on his current ADP. 

enjoy the ride, barking hammy at this stage is a mere blip, hopefully it squishes his ADP down a wee further. 

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I'm the contrarian willing to double down and pass on Jones and his injury history (instead, choosing to go the WR route), and then steal the GB 'cuff(s) later in the draft :ph34r: I liked Dexter Williams prior to the draft, and I really like Dexter Williams post draft. While unspectacular, Jamal Williams has shown he can produce when named the starter in this offense, and whichever RB takes over carries when Jones goes down is an immediate RB2 candidate...on the cheap. So, if you are a Jones non-believer, landing both back-ups (if the bench space is available) aint a bad move if you've waited on RB depth.

I could be wrong :meh: but the back-ups will come cheap, and the value of WR at the Jones "spot" (Woods, Edelman, Golladay) is just as good, especially if you view Jones a "risk".

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5 hours ago, FollowTheLeader said:

I'm the contrarian willing to double down and pass on Jones and his injury history (instead, choosing to go the WR route), and then steal the GB 'cuff(s) later in the draft :ph34r: I liked Dexter Williams prior to the draft, and I really like Dexter Williams post draft. While unspectacular, Jamal Williams has shown he can produce when named the starter in this offense, and whichever RB takes over carries when Jones goes down is an immediate RB2 candidate...on the cheap. So, if you are a Jones non-believer, landing both back-ups (if the bench space is available) aint a bad move if you've waited on RB depth.

I could be wrong :meh: but the back-ups will come cheap, and the value of WR at the Jones "spot" (Woods, Edelman, Golladay) is just as good, especially if you view Jones a "risk".

while i agree you can get good value at the Jones spot in WRs i'm not sure devoting 2 bench spots to GB backup RBs in the off chance you can get jones's potential injury replacement is a good strategy. I would assume if he goes down his replacement will have a VERY low ceiling. I don't remember Jamal Williams being very impressive last season. I would assume the only players that would really benefit from a jones injury would be those involved in the GB passing offense. 

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17 hours ago, yossarian said:

while i agree you can get good value at the Jones spot in WRs i'm not sure devoting 2 bench spots to GB backup RBs in the off chance you can get jones's potential injury replacement is a good strategy. I would assume if he goes down his replacement will have a VERY low ceiling. I don't remember Jamal Williams being very impressive last season. I would assume the only players that would really benefit from a jones injury would be those involved in the GB passing offense. 

Williams took over week 15 against the Bears and ran 12 times for 55 yards and a TD plus caught 4 balls for 42 yards. Next game against the Jets he had 95 yards on 15 carries with a TD plus 6 catches for 61 yards. Det game no one did anything.

Williams will never be considered impressive but any decent runner should be able to put up good to great fantasy numbers in this offense.

 

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And yet they don't, at least not consistently. GB under Rodgers has been notoriously inconsistent in the run game despite Rodgers drawing attention away. 

Where Jones is going, all the RBs have question marks. He has more than some around him, but also more upside IMO.

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On 8/2/2019 at 9:47 PM, bomont said:

And yet they don't, at least not consistently. GB under Rodgers has been notoriously inconsistent in the run game despite Rodgers drawing attention away. 

Where Jones is going, all the RBs have question marks. He has more than some around him, but also more upside IMO.

While true, it's hard to give that inconsistency any weight now that McCarthy is gone. His poor usage of AJ was one of the reasons he was pushed out too. GB has a top 10 line, likely top six scoring offense, and seem to be using AJ in the passing game. That's about all you could ask for at his ADP. If he stays healthy, he's a great value. 

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On ‎8‎/‎1‎/‎2019 at 7:48 PM, yossarian said:

I would assume if he goes down his replacement will have a VERY low ceiling. I don't remember Jamal Williams being very impressive last season. I would assume the only players that would really benefit from a jones injury would be those involved in the GB passing offense. 

 

@FoosballFan B) addressed the misconception regarding Jamal Williams production when given starter duties:

2017, weeks 10-14 (PPR): 8.4pts, 13.5, 29.5, 20.3 and 30.8

2018, weeks 15-16: 19.7pts and 27.6

 

On ‎8‎/‎1‎/‎2019 at 7:48 PM, yossarian said:

i'm not sure devoting 2 bench spots to GB backup RBs in the off chance you can get jones's potential injury replacement is a good strategy.

...not sure the point to the above statement, considering the roster/bench size disclaimer made in my post:

On ‎8‎/‎1‎/‎2019 at 1:46 PM, FollowTheLeader said:

So, if you are a Jones non-believer, landing both back-ups (if the bench space is available) aint a bad move if you've waited on RB depth.

*for further clarification: in the league I was referencing, I have 32 roster spots, so absolutely no issue finding the bench space with which to roster the 2 GB RBs. Hence, "if the bench space is available."

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Even if jones stays healthy, it’s likely due to workload management. Which is probably a smart move for GB. Then they can release jones in playoffs. I think JW will have some value as the 1.B runner even without an AJ injury. I’d rather take him at their adps

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Back at practice this week, and apparently said if it was a regular season game last week he would've played. Good article in general about how they plan to use Jones in the new offense:

https://madison.com/wsj/sports/football/professional/aaron-jones-skill-set-at-running-back-fit-packers-new/article_cc05a2b9-903d-5bc0-8158-75bdd71c2e96.html

Below is the TD referenced in the article that Jones scored on an outside zone play, the same running scheme Lafleur plans to implement:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000997499/Aaron-Jones-shows-off-his-wheels-on-29-yard-TD

 

I don't understand the skepticism around this guy. He's flashed RB1 numbers. He seems like a great fit in a zone running scheme and he's gonna get passing game work as well in Lafleur's offense. Yeah, he's had some injuries but you could say that about most backs. Dalvin Cook and Kerroyn Johnson, two guys going right around or ahead of him, I would argue are just as injury prone, if not more so. I have him as my #12 RB right now and I think he has the upside to finish higher. Great value right now where he's going imo.

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On 8/5/2019 at 11:53 AM, Panthers8912 said:

Even if jones stays healthy, it’s likely due to workload management. Which is probably a smart move for GB. Then they can release jones in playoffs. I think JW will have some value as the 1.B runner even without an AJ injury. I’d rather take him at their adps

 

The Packers have to make the playoffs first. That's far from a given. 

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On 7/27/2019 at 8:37 PM, Joe Odam said:

one thing that needs to be said very loudly in this thread is that this kid, while a potential stud, plays 6 games vs probably THE hardest run defenses being in the NFC north. The Lions are going to be a top 5 unit, the bears are the bears and the vikings are always a huge test. Not saying to stay away but be cautious. His playoff schedule is brutal too

 

I think the general rule of thumb for factoring in a player's schedule is that you look at maybe the first 4-5 weeks and that's about it.  After that, defenses start taking injuries and things just start changing in general.  Also, defensive strength in the preseason are no different than player evals....some defenses look like they will be great (or were great the previous year) and they end up stinking.  Then you got defenses that become great out of nowhere, maybe because of a new DC or something.  I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

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