Corleone

Aaron Jones 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Haha, nailed it. I have this exact same dilemma in a league. 

Same dilemma here lol .... 

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I think Jones does fall into the “start your studs” category.  I can’t imagine a league where this guy isn’t a weekly lock.  

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I keep flip flopping between Jones or Ekler for my last flex spot. If it wasn't CHI it wouldn't be a question but that is a stout run defense. 

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Not to derail the thread with assistant coach picks.... but Jones is a stud and should be starting over anyone of Ekler caliber. No matter the matchup.

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In between following all the AB news of the day, I also did a check of how accurate RB Start/Sit predictions were in Week 1 2018. I play on CBS and went back and checked their column about what RB's to Start and which to Sit, and then checked how said RB's actually did.

--CBS got right: Lamar Miller (Start), Alfred Morris (Sit), Chris Carson (Sit) and LeSean McCoy (Sit). So 4 correct advisements.
--CBS got wrong: Kenyan Drake (Start), Derrick Henry (Start), Royce Freeman (Start), Peyton Barber (Start), Marshawn Lynch (Sit), Isaiah Crowell (Sit), Tevin Coleman (Sit) and none other than Jamaal Williams (who was not just a Start, but their Start of the Week across all positions). So 8 incorrect advisements.

That's a total of 4 correct out of 12 advisements at the RB position, for Week 1 2018.

Many column are listing Jones as a Sit for Week 1 2019. But in the end, just go with your gut versus what the 'experts' are telling you to do. 

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Just now, abc12345 said:

I stole this guy with the 38th overall pick (4.02)

 

I think the hype train came out so early on him that it lost steam near the end.  

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i might be the one of the ones not starting him due to matchups. i also have fournette, DJ, ingram. but based on my situation, i won't roll him out. look for him to go off tonight.

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I’m starting him... he will be there for the goal line and he will catch a couple. Doubtful you have more solid option than a guy you drafted anywhere 2/4 round range. 

 

Im going with this at worst

17/65/.5

2/14/.2

 

fair to say in .5ppr at least that’s not a bad 8 points with a 50/50 shot at a td. Not gonna put out a wr or rb who may not get those many touches and hope he gets a big one. I’ve got Coleman, miles sander and fuller on the bench just as perspective

 

My opinion only.

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14 carries last night.  I think it just looked worse than it was.  Most people here would take that usage, and it was against a really ferocious D.

The alternating series was pretty frustrating to watch though.  I guess Lafleur stuck to what he was saying in preseason, that it would be a timeshare.

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While the stats weren't there for Jones, at least he had a 2 to 1 advantage in touches last night. GB had practically nothing going all game long, but Jones had 14 touches and Williams had 7. In a 16-game season, that would be 224 touches for Jones and 112 for Williams. 

Last season, Jones had 159 touches, missed 4 full games (2 suspension, 2 injury) and most of another game, and still finished as an RB2. If he can come close to 224 touches, it will be a strong fantasy season for him IMO.

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Just have to get through that brutal first ~5 games, then the schedule REALLY gets juicy for him.  Stay healthy, please!

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1 minute ago, Corleone said:

While the stats weren't there for Jones, at least he had a 2 to 1 advantage in touches last night. GB had practically nothing going all game long, but Jones had 14 touches and Williams had 7. In a 16-game season, that would be 224 touches for Jones and 112 for Williams. 

Last season, Jones had 159 touches, missed 4 full games (2 suspension, 2 injury) and most of another game, and still finished as an RB2. If he can come close to 224 touches, it will be a strong fantasy season for him IMO.

I’m just happy he had made it out of Chicago with both knees intact. Things should only improve from here. 

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12 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

14 carries last night.  I think it just looked worse than it was.  Most people here would take that usage, and it was against a really ferocious D.

The alternating series was pretty frustrating to watch though.  I guess Lafleur stuck to what he was saying in preseason, that it would be a timeshare.

 

yea the production output versus the bears is what it is, they are tough as nails, not worried about that a bit.  But still too much Jamaal, even though he out touched him by a 2:1 ratio it seemed like Williams was on the field a lot. Granted, he did get a little banged up so maybe that played into it a bit.

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2 minutes ago, Corleone said:

While the stats weren't there for Jones, at least he had a 2 to 1 advantage in touches last night. GB had practically nothing going all game long, but Jones had 14 touches and Williams had 7. In a 16-game season, that would be 224 touches for Jones and 112 for Williams. 

Last season, Jones had 159 touches, missed 4 full games (2 suspension, 2 injury) and most of another game, and still finished as an RB2. If he can come close to 224 touches, it will be a strong fantasy season for him IMO.

For additional context, 224 touches ranked as the 17th most touches for RB's in 2018. Jones needs to stay healthy of course, but in today's day and age, 224 touches is not as low a number as some people might think. 
 

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10 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

14 carries last night.  I think it just looked worse than it was.  Most people here would take that usage, and it was against a really ferocious D.

The alternating series was pretty frustrating to watch though.  I guess Lafleur stuck to what he was saying in preseason, that it would be a timeshare.

 

Williams was a better fit last night for much of the game. The Bears were man-handling the Packers’ line, there was nowhere to run, and on passing downs, Rodgers was getting killed. We saw that the first few series (when Jones was in).

They needed the better blocking and checkdown pass-receiving... those are two areas in which Williams excels.

Jones was in there in the 4th when they were playing clock management. They know he’s the better runner.  I think he’ll be a solid low-end RB2 most of the season, especially if the defense is as good as they looked last night.

For those hoping Jones would take the next step into RB1 territory, I’d be a bit worried.

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Just now, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

Williams was a better fit last night for much of the game. The Bears were man-handling the Packers’ line, there was nowhere to run, and on passing downs, Rodgers was getting killed. We saw that the first few series (when Jones was in).

They needed the better blocking and checkdown pass-receiving... those are two areas in which Williams excels.

Jones was in there in the 4th when they were playing clock management. They know he’s the better runner.  I think he’ll be a solid low-end RB2 most of the season, especially if the defense is as good as they looked last night.

For those hoping Jones would take the next step into RB1 territory, I’d be a bit worried.

The Packers were getting killed on passing downs when Williams was in as well. In fact there was one specific 3rd down where the announcers specifically mentioned Williams did not do a good job (as Rodgers got sacked). 

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I just thought there would at least be a few more screen/dump offs drawn up for him but that wasn't the case. I'm now a little hesitant to put him out there next week until I see how this shakes out with williams.

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The first half looked baddddd. The second normalized. He's the guy. He's definitely gotten better, but I don't think he's great in pass pro (although against the Bears WIlliams looked pretty bad in pass pro too). 

I think Aaron will settle in as a high-end to mid RB2 that gives you RB1 updside week-in-week out. He's still injury prone, and I don't think you want too get him many more than 200 carries this year, so they have to work in Williams. 200 carries, 50 receptions, and maintaining the high red-zone usage he had last year would be perfect. Think he could be around 1450 total yards and 10 TDs.

Edited by USWAY

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A lot of yall in here owe me an apology.

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Yeah this guy has bust and this thread has cognitive dissonance to justify a pick written all over them, respectively 

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4 minutes ago, LeeVanCleef said:

I just thought there would at least be a few more screen/dump offs drawn up for him but that wasn't the case. I'm now a little hesitant to put him out there next week until I see how this shakes out with williams.

 

Was thinking the same.  There were several times that I thought he was open in the flat but Rodgers never looked back across the field.

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16 minutes ago, Corleone said:

The Packers were getting killed on passing downs when Williams was in as well. In fact there was one specific 3rd down where the announcers specifically mentioned Williams did not do a good job (as Rodgers got sacked). 

 

I know the 3rd down you are talking about, and yes, Williams screwed up big time on that play. But for the rest of the night he did a much better job picking up coverages than Jones.

When Rodgers is back there improvising (which was their best form of offense last night), sometimes Williams is a better fit for that.  We all know Jones is better with the ball in his hands.

Better weeks ahead for Jones, but it’s obvious he’s going to get the bulk of carries, which is promising.

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3 minutes ago, cyberer said:

Yeah this guy has bust and this thread has cognitive dissonance to justify a pick written all over them, respectively 

I don't think he's going to be a bust, that was just a brutal first game to start the season.  He will be fine, long term.

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