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Collin McHugh 2019 Outlook

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McHugh might be in the Astros rotation now. Or, is likely, even, to join the rotation. 

 

I don’t know if this helps his value or not. Depends on league settings I guess. 

 

But he was dominant as a middle reliever. Hard to imagine his ERA (1.99), WHIP, and K/9 (11.7) maintain last year’s levels with him as a SP. Hell, even his wins (6) may not go up drastically. 

 

This is applicable to McHugh, but also a larger discussion about RP value vs SP value in standard 5x5 leagues. 

 

If McHugh does indeed start this year, maybe he gets 6-8 more wins than last year (not guaranteed). Is that worth the extra 1.5-2 ERA, lower K/9, and higher WHIP? In many of my leagues, no it’s not. 

 

So im ambivalent about it, mostly. 

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Between James and even Framber Valdez and with Whitley in the wings in-house no way McHugh pitches long in the rotation.  And chances are high Houston picks up another starter before Opening Day as well.

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And there's still Peacock to contend with. Peacock was pretty dominant as a starter in 2017. McHugh has more value as a BP arm, as far as I'm concerned. When it comes to a rotation spot he's not better than JAG, where I feel like Peacock is a plus play. 2017 Peacock as a starter had 3.22 and 1.21 WHIP, a 10.9 K/9 and a more than respectable 3.7 BB/9. 

 

Any of the Astros brass can say whatever they want right now. I don't see how there's a favorite between Peacock and McHugh for a rotation spot (and based on past performances, I'd think Peacock has to have the edge). 

Just my .02. McHugh is a decent arm, but after how good he was in the BP versus how marginal he was as a starter, I'd think he'd still end up in the BP. Who knows, at this point. I think if you are drafting today you have to draft with the assumption he's more likely to end up in the BP but has potential to grab a rotation spot. 

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His fastball gained 2 MPH last year from 90 to 92, which is a considerable jump. Will be interesting to see if he can hold those gains while starting, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Has some very good secondary stuff so being able to have an improved fastball is very valuable. 

 

He was elite in the 1H, and just average with great Ks in 2H. Things to like and dislike, depends on your appetite. I wouldn't invest any more than SP5 value or later.

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38 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

His fastball gained 2 MPH last year from 90 to 92, which is a considerable jump. Will be interesting to see if he can hold those gains while starting, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Has some very good secondary stuff so being able to have an improved fastball is very valuable. 

 

He was elite in the 1H, and just average with great Ks in 2H. Things to like and dislike, depends on your appetite. I wouldn't invest any more than SP5 value or later.

I wouldn’t expect him to maintain the velocity as a starter, but he doesn’t necessarily have to. He was a solid middle of the rotation starter before he was put into the pen, and he has been developing that slider into a weapon ever since he started working with it with Peacock a couple of years ago, making him more formidable. I agree that I wouldn’t invest higher than SP5 value in a standard league, but considering he is the 97th pitcher off of the board since the beginning of January, no one will need to reach for him if they want him. He is a solid sleeper pick.

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12 hours ago, jbj said:

I wouldn’t expect him to maintain the velocity as a starter, but he doesn’t necessarily have to. He was a solid middle of the rotation starter before he was put into the pen, and he has been developing that slider into a weapon ever since he started working with it with Peacock a couple of years ago, making him more formidable. I agree that I wouldn’t invest higher than SP5 value in a standard league, but considering he is the 97th pitcher off of the board since the beginning of January, no one will need to reach for him if they want him. He is a solid sleeper pick.

As we get closer to opening day and initial roles become more defined, that will move rapidly if he is expected to start the year in the rotation. That 97th (P or SP?) should shoot up. Ideally you'd want him on your bench, I agree I like him as a savvy veteran sleeper that may get glossed over, like Charlie Morton was.

 

I'm still not sold he's a lock for the rotation, we still have some off-season left.

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Posted this in wrong thread originally:

 

All signs point to him making the rotation this year. He's coming off a dominant year in the pen after 3 straight mediocre seasons. He did fair extremely well as a starter back in 2014.

Current price is bargain basement levels, going undrafted in many leagues. Seems like a good buying opportunity. If he can produce anything like he did last year as a starter this year he will be a huge fantasy contributor. While maintaining those numbers as a starter are borderline impossible, he has a chance to deliver a line that is something between 2014 and what he did in 2015 and 2016. If he can do that, which would seem to be pretty feasible, he is one of the best profits on the board right now.

Additionally, Houston is a great spot for pitchers. Good fielders playing behind him, good pitchers park, great lineup support.

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I really like McHugh as a sleeper this year. It's still looking like he's going to be their 3rd starter in the rotation after Verlander and Cole then followed by James and Miley. He has improved his arsenal since he last started in 2016 and his BB% has remained the same. I think 150 innings with an era in the mid 3's and a whip around 1.15 are doable. With his SwStr% being 10% or better since 2014 I think a K rate of 9-10% is also attainable. 

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14 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

I really like McHugh as a sleeper this year. It's still looking like he's going to be their 3rd starter in the rotation after Verlander and Cole then followed by James and Miley. He has improved his arsenal since he last started in 2016 and his BB% has remained the same. I think 150 innings with an era in the mid 3's and a whip around 1.15 are doable. With his SwStr% being 10% or better since 2014 I think a K rate of 9-10% is also attainable. 

Agreed.  He has gained some momentum in drafts but not as much as I expected.  He's a really steady SP5 with upside for more.

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He pitched two pain-free innings; though the box score wasn't great (2 IP. 3 H. 3ER. 2K), McHugh himself said that he was tinkering a few pitches, so should take the score with a grain of salt. A mislocated changeup, a pitch McHugh normally does not throw to righties resulted in a hit and a cutter that got pulled for a HR.

“The way I’m trying to use (the cutter) may be a little different, steal some strikes with it backdoor to lefties whereas, in the past, I’ve pounded it in to lefties with it,” McHugh said. “Changeup is coming along … probably this spring training I feel as good with it as I’ve felt in any spring training so far.”

From what I see, the two pain-free innings and 2K are the positive obviously and we should continue to be optimistic about his sleeper status.

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Posted (edited)

Was a little worried after his rough spring training. Looked really good today with 9 ks in 5 innings. Two earned.

Leaned on the curve (20) and slider (33) combo. Some Frisbees.

 

Edited by Light Tower Power
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Nice start to the season.  Will see how he holds up over the long haul.  How will he be in his 2nd start.

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On 3/30/2019 at 8:51 PM, MrBrown said:

Nice start to the season.  Will see how he holds up over the long haul.  How will he be in his 2nd start.

 

 

So far so good

 

So, Yankees on tap this week, gonna take some big 'uns to start him, for me at least but if he has a nice line this week, away we go!!

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12 hours ago, RolandoRoomes said:

 

 

So far so good

 

So, Yankees on tap this week, gonna take some big 'uns to start him, for me at least but if he has a nice line this week, away we go!!

 

Witbout Stanton Hicks and Andujar it’s not nearly as formidable as you’d think. And anyone could score a billion runs vs Baltimore (chris Davis aside)

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2 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

Witbout Stanton Hicks and Andujar it’s not nearly as formidable as you’d think. And anyone could score a billion runs vs Baltimore (chris Davis aside)

 

Frazier and DLM are raking right now.  Don't sell this version of the NYY LU short.  I'm siding with the talent in McHugh too, but will not be surprised if he underwhelms against that offense.  

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On 4/9/2019 at 3:17 AM, 80version said:

 

Frazier and DLM are raking right now.  Don't sell this version of the NYY LU short.  I'm siding with the talent in McHugh too, but will not be surprised if he underwhelms against that offense.  

Agree and don't forget about the man Luke Voit.

But I think I'm rolling as he's at home. Pitchers usually do better at home, wouldn't start him at Yankee stadium. 

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Very nice start to the season for McHugh.  I thought McHugh and Peacock were two of the better value picks for pitchers at their ADPs.  Looking like I was totally wrong about Peacock, but at least McHugh is doing well.

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23 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

Very nice start to the season for McHugh.  I thought McHugh and Peacock were two of the better value picks for pitchers at their ADPs.  Looking like I was totally wrong about Peacock, but at least McHugh is doing well.

Based on one bad start, are you for real? Guess you should drop your other guys who had one bad start too, as you were totally wrong about them also.

Good to see McHugh doing well, I was buying in after hearing he'd learnt the Peacock slider. Looking like must start from now on.

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McHugh is looking pretty amazing so far! Loving the K/9 upside, the ratios are solid, and he'll be locked in for wins once that offense starts rolling. Buying all the shares I can get on him.

 

 

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8 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Based on one bad start, are you for real? Guess you should drop your other guys who had one bad start too, as you were totally wrong about them also.

Good to see McHugh doing well, I was buying in after hearing he'd learnt the Peacock slider. Looking like must start from now on.

 

Well, Peacock did get banished to the bullpen for the next 2 weeks after that one horrible start.  It's definitely been a discouraging start to the season for Peacock, but at least McHugh is looking good so far.

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On 4/12/2019 at 9:49 AM, doctorm said:

McHugh is looking pretty amazing so far! Loving the K/9 upside, the ratios are solid, and he'll be locked in for wins once that offense starts rolling. Buying all the shares I can get on him.

 

 

 

Another very nice outing from McHugh last night.  Like you, I'm looking to buy all the shares I can get on him and I'm not looking to sell the shares I have.  Someone offered me Aaron Nola for McHugh this morning, but I turned that down.  I thought Nola was badly overranked in the preseason and he's looked truly dreadful this year.

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Posted (edited)

I would've like to see him pitch the 7th, came out at only 89 pitches. Hopefully he'll go deeper as the season goes on.

Edited by Resident A-hole

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