taobball

*DISCUSSION* 2018 RW Mock Draft III *DISCUSSION*

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16 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Because he had tommy john surgery and i don't think he should play at all next year and should just rehab. 

I knew about the TJ surgery but I didn’t know he might not be ready for opening day. 

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16 hours ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Looking at all the teams I'd say the two best teams belong to Shakestreet and Swayze up to this point. I'd say the best value picks of the draft were Edwin, Puig, Dahl and Pollock for where each went

Damn right.... lol 

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17 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Every draft this year I would draft Taylor over Kiki.

There was a lot of hype surrounding Taylor last year, after his successful 2017 campaign. A 20/20 guy, he failed.

You have any idea what was his ADP ? 

 

You are phrasing that like I don't know any of this? 280 probably doesn't happen..but there is ranges to bounce back in SB and HRs.

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57 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

You are phrasing that like I don't know any of this? 280 probably doesn't happen..but there is ranges to bounce back in SB and HRs.

well excuse me...

I agreed with your assessment ...I would draft Taylor over Kiki

 

I asked if you remembered what Chris Taylor's ADP was last year?

Don't bother looking it up because I did.

It was right around 100

 

So he is a F ing bargain this year.

adios

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Felt Arrieta was too good a value to pass up at this point, thinking a bit of a bounceback on a good team this year.

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I really like Trevor Cahill this year, especially because it feels like absolutely no one else does. I see an ADP of 102 among SPs on Fantrax, and without naming names, the majority of players 80-100 haven't been drafted.

 

Pitched only 110 last year, but think it's possible he puts in a full season. He was capable of pitching 200 Innings way back in 2010-2012, so I think there's IP upside for sure.

 

He got his K/9 up over 8. He's still in a good park for HR prevention, and he has a good defense behind him with, if healthy, Cozart, Simmons, Trout, and Calhoun at least. 

 

His whiff% was up to a career high 11.7%. The two previous years he hadn't really been a full time starter, so the 11.0% Whiff% was harder to quantify. But now that he's done it as a starter for 20 Starts, it seems that some of the changes Cahill made in the bullpen can translate to his game as an SP. And FWIW, 11.7% translates to 22nd among qualifiers. 

 

One of his biggest changes (pun) the last few years is increased change-up usage. Use it in the mid-teens 16-18% range mostly before 2016, used the Change-Up 26.06%, 22.38%, and 24.30% the last three years. And as a whole, that pitch was pretty incredible last year. 24.30% Usage, 22.07% Whiffs, .283 SLG. Well above average in generating swing-and-miss and preventing heavy SLG%'s. 

 

He also has two breaking balls and mostly throws a sinker that seems to have enough movement that it doesn't get hammered. I think he puts up SP3-4 numbers when healthy. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Cahill if healthy is the key. I like him too. 

 

Sure, but we're past pick 250, and he's healthy now. I'd take him much closer to pick 200 in some drafts. 

Edited by taobball

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59 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Sure, but we're past pick 250, and he's healthy now. I'd take him much closer to pick 200 in some drafts. 

 

96c1e7cd-0170-407c-85cf-440069e818de_tex

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Mr. @taobball 

What is your thoughts on Joey Lucchesi? 

 

I like him a lot.... fuzzy stole him in this mock 

 

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7 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Mr. @taobball 

What is your thoughts on Joey Lucchesi? 

 

I like him a lot.... fuzzy stole him in this mock 

 

 

I *like* Lucchesi, but don't really see myself getting him either.

 

His ADP is SP61 on Fantrax, which isn't particularly high, but again I myself prefer Trevor Cahill. 

 

This can come off as a double-edged sword-- a positive and a negative-- but I think a lot of what Joey Lucchesi does well is deception. I did one piece I released privately last year breaking down Pivetta, Luccesi, and Lopez, and so I spent quite a bit of time watching every pitch Lucchesi threw at one point of the 2018 season. He has a really non-traditional, funky delivery. But I think it works. He "pockets" the ball really well and disguises it late into his delivery, and then when he comes forward he uses an extreme over the top motion. I think that deception is the reason he's been able to manage such incredible K and Whiff numbers despite stuff that doesn't blow your socks off when you watch it. 

 

I also really like Lucchesi's hybrid Churve pitch. (Change+Curve)

 

What I don't like particularly, and what I think is overrated, is his control. One thing I heard a lot when I first looked into Lucchesi-- what I heard a lot of people saying-- was that the control was really good. I disagreed, or at least in terms of the Command. Becuase while the Lucchesi I saw got the ball over the plate, he missed his catcher's location often. His release, at times, looked inconsistent to me. He would seem to make big mistakes and miss badly on occasion. I don't see his HR/9 as a fluke, but rather a result of his poor command. 

 

On top of that, while I love the hybrid, it is his only real supplement to his fastball. He throws the Churve and the Fastball. And two pitch pitchers worry me. 

 

So again, I LOVE the deception, and I really like the Churve. But at the same time, I dont' think the command is as good as many say it is. And I need that to improve to have faith, because at times when I watched him pitch it seemed like the spot was random, and that's the main reason I saw him get over a 4 ERA Last year. 

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I'm intrigued by @DidiFan pick of Whitley, when do you think he gets called up this year?

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1 hour ago, azeri98 said:

I'm intrigued by @DidiFan pick of Whitley, when do you think he gets called up this year?

I wish I had something more definitive to say but I'm honestly not sure. It was a dice roll on my part. Along with Senzel. I think at this point this is kind of what we are all doing more or less throwing darts at shiny things. 

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7 hours ago, DidiFan said:

I wish I had something more definitive to say but I'm honestly not sure. It was a dice roll on my part. Along with Senzel. I think at this point this is kind of what we are all doing more or less throwing darts at shiny things. 

I like Senzel to make more of an impact in fantasy this year than Whitley. Whitley still hasn’t logged a lot of innings in the minors and had only 91 in 2017 and 26 in 2018. I’m just speculating here but I’d expect him to start the year in AA or AAA in the rotation but to have an innings limit around 110-120. When and if he gets promoted this year I think he only makes a few starts or perhaps spends the rest of the year in the bullpen. 2020 is the year to own him, imo.

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Pm me when im up so it goes to email. Ill send my 1 pick to @Slatykamoraif gctacos doesnt take him also to speed things up.

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I'm just kinda throwing darts at this point, my pitching is pretty weak.

Don't even know if soroka will have a job starting out the year or if matt Boyd will even be good. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

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It's early Sunday morning and it's 10 degrees outside, so what better time to go over my favorite and least favorite picks of your draft so far.

 

zstlj: Favorite: Chapman and Kimbrel at the 8/9 turn. 8 and 9 seem like good value for 2 elite closers and with those picks I'd be ready to call it a day on my search for closers and focus the rest of my draft on hitting and starting pitcher. Least favorite: not exactly 1 pick, but I don't like grabbing 4 additional closers after those 2. My usual draft strategy is to grab 2-3 closers in a draft and hunt the wire throughout the season for any additional saves.

 

shakestreet: Favorite: Robbie Ray in the 11th. Back to back seasons with k/9 of 12. I feel there is still a monster season coming out of him with health and some improvements in his control. Least favorite: there wasn't 1 pick that i really didn't like so I'm going to go with Jose Martinez in the 15th b/c without a trade or injury he's just a part time player.

 

didifan: Favorite: like both Corbin in round 5 and Robles in round 12. Least favorite:  Jose Abreu in round 7. Maybe he bounces back with year, but he didn't look like the same hitter last year.

 

GC tacos: Favorite: Castillo in round 11. He was studly in the 2nd half of last year and had impressive velo increases throughout the year. Also really like Buehler in round 5. Least favorite: punting on saves. Yes, you have some dominant late inning guys who will get some saves, but there is no clear closer on your team and I am not a fan of that strategy.

 

turner46: Favorite: really like Puig in 8 and Myers in 9.  Also like Dejong in 20. Least favorite: Quintanta in 16. After last year he's firmly on my dnd list. 

 

slatykamora: Favorite: Peraza in 8 is really great value. Least favorite: Gallo in 9. His power is great but he's suck a drain on the batting average (unless this is an OPS league, in which case good pick!).

 

Members_Only76: Favorite: I think you may have my favorite roster, really well balanced. My favorite pick is Villar in 8. He's a potential "League Winner". Least favorite: drafting Darvish as your 3rd starting pitcher. It's not a terrible pick but I would be a little concerned having him as my 3rd drafted SP.

 

azeri98: Favorite: Braun in round 15. He's obviously not the same player he was, but he's still a good fantasy contributor when he's on the field. Some luck in the health department and he could easily finish top 100. Also really liek Hamels in 16 after seeing what he did for the cubs last year. Least favorite: Seager in round 5 is too steep for me.

 

taobball: Favorite:  Segura in round 5. Leclerc in round 11. Least favorite: Kershaw in round 2. As I've already mentioned, that kind of price tag doesn't seem to bake in enough of his injury risk. A flare up of his back pain can come at any point and the severity of it could be much worse than we've seen.

 

Fuzzy_Slippers: Favorite: Josh Donaldson: he was a late 1st, early 2nd pick as recently as last year. Last year was a trainwreck obv, but at that price he's a steal and another injury plagued season won't kill you. I also love that lineup to score a lot of runs this year. I also really like Lucchesi in round 21. Least favorite:  Keuchel in round 14. 

 

sngehl01: Favorite: Josh James in round 13. I'm driving the James bus this year so I have to go with him. I think he's a good bet for 200ks pitching on a 100 win team. Least favorite: Correa in round 3. He can't seem to stay healthy and hasn't stolen bases the last 2 years. Granted he's hitting in a great park, in a great lineup, and the rest of the starting pitching in the AL West is atrocious. 

 

SwayzeExpress: Favrorite: David Dahl in round 9. Obv an injury risk, but with health he's going to be a big asset. Least favorite: Gregory Polanco in round 13. I think he's going to be unrosterable in the 1st half of the season after that shoulder surgery. I think by mid May he'll be hitting the waiver wires in most league.

 

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Its too late to throw someonelse in. Just autopick for him. Use NFBC adp with consideration of his needs.

 

Id like to see what other people have for late call outs. So id prefer not to just end it.

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17 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Its too late to throw someonelse in. Just autopick for him. Use NFBC adp with consideration of his needs.

 

Id like to see what other people have for late call outs. So id prefer not to just end it.

I am all for us to just skip him ... after all it’s only a mock. 

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16 hours ago, shakestreet said:

I am all for us to just skip him ... after all it’s only a mock. 

4

It's not a big deal at all to me either which way I just got confused because it looked like he didn't make his last pick and I'm up after him. So I wasn't sure what was going on. 

If you guys just want to skip, wait or if you want I could make a pick for him. Let me know. Whatever works. 

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1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

Its too late to throw someonelse in. Just autopick for him. Use NFBC adp with consideration of his needs.

 

Id like to see what other people have for late call outs. So id prefer not to just end it.

 

I haven’t been on much today but I think we should do this. If @DidiFan wants to pick go ahead we’ll fill in his last two and auto pick consider needs moving forward. 

 

Unless someone can suggest perhaps a speed guy? I have him low on SBs. I’m not looking at an adp list right now

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23 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I haven’t been on much today but I think we should do this. If @DidiFan wants to pick go ahead we’ll fill in his last two and auto pick consider needs moving forward. 

 

Unless someone can suggest perhaps a speed guy? I have him low on SBs. I’m not looking at an adp list right now

I agree there are some good names still on the board IMO it's worth finishing I think. OK I'll just make a pick for my team then. And we'll fill in the blanks from there. 

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5 hours ago, meh2 said:

It's early Sunday morning and it's 10 degrees outside, so what better time to go over my favorite and least favorite picks of your draft so far.

 

zstlj: Favorite: Chapman and Kimbrel at the 8/9 turn. 8 and 9 seem like good value for 2 elite closers and with those picks I'd be ready to call it a day on my search for closers and focus the rest of my draft on hitting and starting pitcher. Least favorite: not exactly 1 pick, but I don't like grabbing 4 additional closers after those 2. My usual draft strategy is to grab 2-3 closers in a draft and hunt the wire throughout the season for any additional saves.

 

shakestreet: Favorite: Robbie Ray in the 11th. Back to back seasons with k/9 of 12. I feel there is still a monster season coming out of him with health and some improvements in his control. Least favorite: there wasn't 1 pick that i really didn't like so I'm going to go with Jose Martinez in the 15th b/c without a trade or injury he's just a part time player.

 

didifan: Favorite: like both Corbin in round 5 and Robles in round 12. Least favorite:  Jose Abreu in round 7. Maybe he bounces back with year, but he didn't look like the same hitter last year.

 

GC tacos: Favorite: Castillo in round 11. He was studly in the 2nd half of last year and had impressive velo increases throughout the year. Also really like Buehler in round 5. Least favorite: punting on saves. Yes, you have some dominant late inning guys who will get some saves, but there is no clear closer on your team and I am not a fan of that strategy.

 

turner46: Favorite: really like Puig in 8 and Myers in 9.  Also like Dejong in 20. Least favorite: Quintanta in 16. After last year he's firmly on my dnd list. 

 

slatykamora: Favorite: Peraza in 8 is really great value. Least favorite: Gallo in 9. His power is great but he's suck a drain on the batting average (unless this is an OPS league, in which case good pick!).

 

Members_Only76: Favorite: I think you may have my favorite roster, really well balanced. My favorite pick is Villar in 8. He's a potential "League Winner". Least favorite: drafting Darvish as your 3rd starting pitcher. It's not a terrible pick but I would be a little concerned having him as my 3rd drafted SP.

 

azeri98: Favorite: Braun in round 15. He's obviously not the same player he was, but he's still a good fantasy contributor when he's on the field. Some luck in the health department and he could easily finish top 100. Also really liek Hamels in 16 after seeing what he did for the cubs last year. Least favorite: Seager in round 5 is too steep for me.

 

taobball: Favorite:  Segura in round 5. Leclerc in round 11. Least favorite: Kershaw in round 2. As I've already mentioned, that kind of price tag doesn't seem to bake in enough of his injury risk. A flare up of his back pain can come at any point and the severity of it could be much worse than we've seen.

 

Fuzzy_Slippers: Favorite: Josh Donaldson: he was a late 1st, early 2nd pick as recently as last year. Last year was a trainwreck obv, but at that price he's a steal and another injury plagued season won't kill you. I also love that lineup to score a lot of runs this year. I also really like Lucchesi in round 21. Least favorite:  Keuchel in round 14. 

 

sngehl01: Favorite: Josh James in round 13. I'm driving the James bus this year so I have to go with him. I think he's a good bet for 200ks pitching on a 100 win team. Least favorite: Correa in round 3. He can't seem to stay healthy and hasn't stolen bases the last 2 years. Granted he's hitting in a great park, in a great lineup, and the rest of the starting pitching in the AL West is atrocious. 

 

SwayzeExpress: Favrorite: David Dahl in round 9. Obv an injury risk, but with health he's going to be a big asset. Least favorite: Gregory Polanco in round 13. I think he's going to be unrosterable in the 1st half of the season after that shoulder surgery. I think by mid May he'll be hitting the waiver wires in most league.

 

My thought process in the closers/ RP had mostly to do with ratios. I think I have some guys I can trust for good ratios with some Ks and S from the RPs. My SP was a bit late to form so I'm not looking at many Ws and most likely not above mid pack in Ks.

I think trying to make up for the SPs with SPs mid draft could be a mistake and really weigh down ratios without necessarily fixing the Ws and Ks

 

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Matt Duffy hit 2/3 for the rays a good chunk of the year and only amassed 59 R and 44 RBI.

Matt Duffy has not hit a HR in 326 PAs

Matt Duffy has 1 career HR at Tropicana field, and it came in 2016.

Matt Duffy Career best SB total is 12

 

Matt Duffy: Is somehow on a fantasy team.

 

 

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