sngehl01

Marcell Ozuna 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

The last two posts represent, to a tee, how I feel about him coming into this year. He was a key player for me in the final weeks leading up to and into the playoffs last year. As many have already said, I too don't expect him to replicate what he did in 2017 but I feel pretty confident in projecting him to be a .285-.295 hitter with at least 27 HRs, 90+ RBIs, and 80+ runs. I actually feel that's a pretty conservative projection, in terms of his RBIs in particular, given the 3 guys projected to him in front of him. Carpenter and Goldy are both excellent OBP guys at .377 and .398 respectively throughout their careers and are projected to hit leadoff and 3rd. Dejong, though he has a career .319 OBP in his short two years, did have a .340 OBP in the 1st half of 2018. That being said I could easily see Ozuna crossing 100 or even 110 RBIs this year. Heck, he hit 124 in 2017 with the Marlins lineup. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kid had light tower power coming up on the Marlins, and his years there, before putting together a monster year. I'm not buying his power magically disappeared at age 27. His contact rates and batted ball profile improved -- IMO he was playing injured and that cut into his power output. I like him a lot, and that lineup is improved. Loving his diminished price

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Where would you take him in standard redrafts? Would you take him in the top 50?

 

I’d feel comfortable taking him around pick 50 right now. I don’t think I’d go any earlier than that but it depends on who was available at my pick. I’d rather have him over some of the young guys with smaller track records going in that range. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The team president was interviewed yesterday and, when questioned about Ozuna's availability for Opening Day, said he needs to pick it up a bit in regards to his throwing program. Just something to follow heading into drafts and go through Spring Training.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sadly this is surely throwing some cold water on my ozuna hopes for 2019. Not a fan of players who start the year injured at close to full cost.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From what I understand he’s not sore or hurting at all but his throwing program is moving slower than upper management had hoped. He’s still DHing this spring but he’s not yet playing the field. Still plenty of time left before opening day so it’s not time to panic yet. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Cardinals let him leave and go rehab back.home on his own. He said he would be ready to go by ST and came in not ready. Mistakes by both parties IMO

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, zstlj said:

The Cardinals let him leave and go rehab back.home on his own. He said he would be ready to go by ST and came in not ready. Mistakes by both parties IMO

 

 

Thanks for the info as I was not aware of this. This is less concerning than if they were working him out this entire offseason and things were still not going according to plan if you ask me. It sounds like he may have been procrastinating in his rehab thinking it would go faster than expected. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In a chat Monday with Cardinals beat writer Derrick Goold on STLToday.com, he noted that Ozuna also came into camp heavier than last year and the Cardinals talked to him about how he needs to improve his fitness in addition to his shoulder this spring. This is all cooling my previous enthusiasm for him a bit.

 

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/quick-hits-goold-on-the-cardinals/collection_a7d36659-2895-5b42-939d-50b7e48b734d.html

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do some guys purposely start slow due to soreness / "injury" so they don't have to deal with long ST? Not saying Ozuna is that case here, just wonder in general.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Do some guys purposely start slow due to soreness / "injury" so they don't have to deal with long ST? Not saying Ozuna is that case here, just wonder in general.

 

my personal favorite is "stomach flu"

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Caelum said:

In a chat Monday with Cardinals beat writer Derrick Goold on STLToday.com, he noted that Ozuna also came into camp heavier than last year and the Cardinals talked to him about how he needs to improve his fitness in addition to his shoulder this spring. This is all cooling my previous enthusiasm for him a bit.

 

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/quick-hits-goold-on-the-cardinals/collection_a7d36659-2895-5b42-939d-50b7e48b734d.html

 

same.  where would you rank him compared to say Pham or Mitch Haniger at this point??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

same.  where would you rank him compared to say Pham or Mitch Haniger at this point??

 

I’m definitely more optimistic about Pham. Don’t know what happened to him in the middle of last season, but he was outstanding in the beginning and even better the last couple months. Ozuna vs. Haniger is more of a tough call. Mitch feels safer given what we’re hearing about Ozuna this spring, though his lineup is worse than Ozuna’s and Ozuna has that 2017 to maybe give him more upside IF all goes well. But the early spring reports of the team being disappointed with his fitness and pace of shoulder rehab is concerning.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was a big believer in a healthy rebound year for him, and I guess that's still my best guess.  But the risk factor has gone way up and I think you have to drop him a round based on the reports this past week---last year's guy wasn't a top 50 value and while we think he's healthy, we don't know that and we have a couple behavioral red flags too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Note, the article points out Ozuna added several pounds of muscle to strengthen his shoulder, meeting the request of the team.  He might be a monster this year.  The team might be very happy with the shape he is in.

 

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/he-ain-t-heavy-he-s-just-stronger/article_5c2cd9d7-ea11-51f6-82a5-b0f23064a911.html

 

 

Edited by Hellgrammite
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's expected to be back in the OF as soon as Monday and is on track for Opening Day. All things looking good at the moment. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not looking good IMO. Wanted to believe in this guy but it's just not working out so far

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/it-s-not-just-his-arm-ozuna-s-swing-lagging/article_54039fe4-54d1-50c1-b889-b7eec946e5cd.html

"Does Marcell Ozuna have any idea what he is doing wrong at the plate? He seems to be popping a lot of balls up and making weak contact most of the time. At least last year, while he didn't get much lift on it, he hit almost everything hard.

Ozuna still steps toward third base when he swings and pulls off everything. He shows up 25 pounds overweight, is shady to the team about his offseason workouts and is hitting under .100. O'Neill shows up raking and in great shape — and we have to watch Ozuna wallow around in LF every day?"

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

What’re the thoughts on this guy right now? Is his spring concerning enough to not take him top 50? 

 

I wouldn't have taken him top 50 (in roto mixed redraft) even before spring games, even though at the time I was optimistic about a rebound. Just too much risk with so many other good options there. He's hard to predict, in the past five years he's had three almost identical roto seasons (2014, 16, 18, all good but not great), one outlier terrible season (2015) and one outlier MVP-caliber season (2017). I try not to succumb to reading too much into the spring, but being a Cards fan and owning Ozuna last year, the spring at-bats I've seen (admittedly probably just 8-10 of them), and the overall numbers bring me bad flashbacks of owning him early last year. He's one of those cases where his spring bears some watching because of offseason surgery. But we've seen lots of weak contact, as noted by another fan in the link a couple posts above. The only positive thing I've seen or read about him is that he's throwing better. Maybe his hitting timing is just off, I don't know.

I'm a jilted Cards fan and Ozuna over-drafter from last year, so take my read on it for what it's worth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ended up with him as my OF2 and immediately hate it.  Can i get any positivity?  This whole thread is doom and gloom

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, midlip said:

Ended up with him as my OF2 and immediately hate it.  Can i get any positivity?  This whole thread is doom and gloom

 

Have patience.  Spring training is all about hype and gloom depending on whether a guy "looks thin" or "put on weight" or whatever.  Ozuna has pedigree, is at a good age, has a tremendous lineup around him, and good coaches; patience is needed here.  And perhaps have another OF you'd feel comfortable starting on your UTIL or B just in case.  Some dude just dropped him in a 16 team league I'm in so this tells you how serious the anxiety is running through the fantasy community. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

Have patience.  Spring training is all about hype and gloom depending on whether a guy "looks thin" or "put on weight" or whatever.  Ozuna has pedigree, is at a good age, has a tremendous lineup around him, and good coaches; patience is needed here.  And perhaps have another OF you'd feel comfortable starting on your UTIL or B just in case.  Some dude just dropped him in a 16 team league I'm in so this tells you how serious the anxiety is running through the fantasy community. 

yea.. hes a good hitter but the hate is real.. fell to 8th rd. where I had to draft him

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

He's going to be playing every day and batting cleanup right? If so, I think he should be fine

 

I don’t know where he will hit in the lineup but that sounds about right. Not sure how long his leash will be hitting cleanup if he doesn’t produce though. 

I think he will play everyday but if he doesn’t produce who knows. I think he will be ok in the long run but I don’t expect another season like 2017. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.