Corleone

Tyreek Hill 2019 Outlook

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Tyreek Hill had quite a 2018. In his second year as the #1 WR for KC, Hill had the following achievements...

--87 catches (10th amongst WR's; in 2017, he had 75 catches)

--1479 receiving yards (4th in the NFL; in 2017, he had 1183 yards)

--14 total TD's - 12 receiving, 1 rushing, 1 punt return (2nd in the NFL; in 2017, he had 8 TD's)

--151 rush yards & 213 punt return yards (in 2017, he had 59 rush yards & 204 punt return yards)

 

What did that lead to fantasy-wise?

--#1 overall WR in .25 point PPR format (in 2017, he was #3 through Week 16 and after DNP rest Week 17, was #4)

--#1 overall WR in 1 point PPR format (in 2017, he was #4 through Week 16 and after DNP rest Week 17, was #8)
(the .25 point PPR format also grants 1 point for every 30 return yards, and gives a 3 point bonus for a 100-yard receiving game)
(the 1 point PPR format has no points for return yardage, 1 bonus point at 100 yards, 1.5 points at 150 yards, 2 points at 200 yards, and 1 point for 40+ yard receptions)

 

Even though Tyreek was coming off a stellar 2017 to begin with, his 2018 was an improvement across every fantasy stat, and every fantasy format.

Coming up, I'll post some specific stats to discuss both his 2018 season and career, as I think that can be helpful towards determining how he might do in 2019. 
jordan-berrytyreek-hill-8f378906db589781.jpg

 

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Have to factor in if Watkins is healthy next year that Hill’s numbers will maybe take a slight step back, but yet again Watkins is made out of glass and is injury prone. Tyreek Hill is without a doubt the top option in the NFL’s top offense and wouldn’t surprise me if he was the #1 receiver in fantasy football next season. Hill and Mahomes is the next legendary QB/WR combo in the NFL for years to come.

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44 minutes ago, joebaker23 said:

Have to factor in if Watkins is healthy 

 

Lol

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Watkins on the field helps Hill imo but Cheetah is for sure the top WR off the board next year.  I would not fault anyone for taking Hopkins over him for the great amount of catches/consistency. Hill 1A / Hopkins 1B next year then the other top 10 WR are just a tier below those two. 

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In the 2018 Tyreek thread, I listed out several myths and realities as far as his production. For the second-straight season, I believe he shattered the myths.

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is a one-trick pony. He's got great speed but that's it. 

REALITY: False. Hill is far from a one-trick pony. In 2017, Hill finished 7th in catch percentage amongst all WR's, at 71%, making 75 catches on 105 targets. And guess what? Hill was 7th in WR catch percentage in 2016, at 71%. He did drop down to 63.5% in 2018, though that is not a bad number and also, he was at 69% through Week 12. In addition, Hill finished the season within the top 10 of PFF's WR rankings for the second year in a row (he was rated #6 in 2018). 

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is too inconsistent Part 1. He's no good in home games and flip-flops good with bad. 
REALITY: False. Tyreek has been better on the road than at home overall, this is true. But of his 8 "stud" games in 2018, 4 of them came at home and 4 of them came away. What do I classify as a stud? 10 or more points in .25 point PPR format, and 15 or more points in the 1 point PPR format. He also had three separate instances of putting up back-to-back stud games. And as tracked throughout the 2018 thread, on a total points basis for the .25 PPR format, he was ranked as either the #1 or #2 fantasy WR for every week of the fantasy season

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is too inconsistent Part 2. It's boom or bust with him.

REALITY: False. Hill rarely had busts in 2018. Across both scoring formats mentioned above, he only had 3 dud games. What do I classify as a dud? Less than 5 points in the .25 point format, and less than 10 points in the 1 point format. He never had back-to-back duds. He actually improved upon last season's showing, as in 2017 he had 4 duds (which is strong to begin with). How many other WR's with 10+ games played had less duds in 2018? From the .25 PPR format, only 10 WR's (AB, Hopkins, Julio, D.Adams, K.Allen, Thielen, Odell, Woods, Lockett & Edelman; Hilton & E.Sanders had 3 and were tied with Hill, though each played less games). So what that means is that purely on avoidance of risk, Tyreek was still a WR1 on a weekly basis. 

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill gets all his FP's in one big game. He doesn't help you win that many individual weekly matchups. 

REALITY: False. Hill was actually one of the best WR's in putting up stud games. What do I classify as a stud? 10 or more points in the .25 point format, and 15 or more points in the 1 point format. Hill had 8 stud games - the same as in 2017. How many other WR's with 10+ games  had more studs in 2018? From the .25 PPR format, only 8 WR's (AB, Hopkins, Julio, D.Adams, Thielen, JuJu, Evans & Diggs; M.Thomas, Odell, Hilton & Lockett had 8 and were tied with Hill). Now Hill's highs during those stud games were higher than everyone else's. Tyreek had the top-scoring week for ALL WR's in 5 individual weeks (Weeks 1, 6, 10, 11 & 17). How impressive is that? Only one other WR had as many as 2 top-scoring weeks (none other than Amari Cooper). So even though his duds are to the level that he's a WR1 in avoiding duds, his studs were through the stratosphere in terms of helping to win individual weeks. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Watkins on the field helps Hill imo but Cheetah is for sure the top WR off the board next year.  I would not fault anyone for taking Hopkins over him for the great amount of catches/consistency. Hill 1A / Hopkins 1B next year then the other top 10 WR are just a tier below those two. 

 

I agree with you. Just playing devil's advocate, I can see putting Adams into that top tier...and AB if people are not concerned at all about the drama surrounding him (the drama obviously being a big if, not to mention the continued emergence of JuJu). 

 

Overall, I feel that Tyreek, Hopkins, Adams are the Tier 1 WR's, and could understand any of them being the first WR off the board. 

 

Edited by Corleone
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He's now the best WR in the NFL and he will only get better with another year of Mahomes throwing him the ball.

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34 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

Lol

Peep the rest of my statement on Watkins hahaha the notion of him being injury prone is true

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I spoke about Studs vs Duds in one of the above posts. Let me share some more details on that. It could perhaps be useful to people in analyzing Tyreek, as well as other WR's...

 

In my .25 point PPR league, I consider a Stud as a game with 10 or more points. And a Dud as less than 5 points. Many of you play 1 point PPR, and the equivalent is 15 or more points for a Stud, and less than 10 points for a Dud. The below list shows the number of Stud, Middle and Dud games for all prominent WR's over the past three seasons (2016--2018, which is when Tyreek entered the NFL) in the .25 PPR format (and I believer it is quite similar for 1 point PPR as well)...

 

--AB: 31 Studs - 6 Middle, 7 Duds (44 games played)

--D.Adams: 30 Studs - 6 Middle - 9 Duds (45 games played)

--Hopkins: 26 Studs - 14 Middle - 7 Duds (47 games played)

--M.Evans: 26 Studs - 10 Middle - 11 Duds (47 games played)

--Tyreek: 25 Studs - 12 Middle - 10 Duds (47 games played)

--Julio: 24 Studs - 14 Middle - 8 Duds (46 games played)

--M.Thomas: 22 Studs - 14 Middle - 11 Duds (47 games played)

--Hilton: 21 Studs - 6 Middle - 19 Duds (46 games played)

--Odell: 20 Studs - 5 Middle - 7 Duds (32 games played)

--B.Cooks: 19 Studs - 14 Middle - 15 Duds (48 games played)

--Thielen: 18 Studs - 12 Middle - 18 Duds (48 games played)

--Diggs: 18 Studs - 9 Middle - 15 Duds (42 games played)

--Green: 17 Studs - 10 Middle - 8 Duds (34 games played)

--Landry: 17 Studs - 16 Middle - 15 Duds (48 games played)

--Jeffery: 16 Studs - 9 Middle - 16 Duds (41 games played)

--G.Tate: 16 Studs - 8 Middle - 23 Duds (47 games played)

--D.Thomas: 16 Studs - 13 Middle - 18 Duds (47 games played)

--Amari: 15 Studs - 8 Middle - 22 Duds (45 games played)

--JuJu: 14 Studs - 7 Middle - 9 Duds (30 games played as a 2nd-year player)

--K.Allen: 14 Studs - 13 Middle - 6 Duds (33 games played)

--Baldwin: 14 Studs - 13 Middle - 18 Duds (45 games played)

--Fitzgerald: 14 Studs - 16 Middle - 18 Duds (48 Games Played)

--R.Woods: 13 Studs - 11 Middle - 17 Duds (41 games played)

--Lockett: 12 Studs - 17 Middle - 18 Duds (47 games played)

--Crabtree: 12 Studs - 15 Middle - 19 Duds (46 games played)

--R.Anderson: 12 Studs - 6 Middle - 28 Duds (46 games played)

--Kupp: 11 Studs - 2 Middle - 10 Duds (23 games played as a 2nd-year player)

--M.Jones: 11 Studs - 14 Middle - 15 Duds (40 games played)

--E.Sanders: 11 Studs - 10 Middle - 19 Duds (40 games played)

--Stills: 11 Studs - 12 Middle - 24 Duds (47 games played)

--Edelman: 10 Studs - 4 Middle - 14 Duds (28 games played)

--Golladay: 9 Studs - 3 Middle - 14 Duds (26 games played as a 2nd-year player)

--A.Robinson: 7 Studs - 8 Middle - 15 Duds (30 games played)

--C.Davis: 4 Studs - 4 Middle - 19 Duds (27 games played as a 2nd-year player)

 

Obviously, several players have had situations change from 2016 to 2018. Some players have gotten better. Some have gotten worse. Some have been injured. This isn't meant as a rankings list for 2019. It's simply to show the actual on-field production for the top WR's, and how consistent they've been. 

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I was hoping to get him in the second round, but I doubt he will fall that far.  I think top 5 WRs next year would be Hopkins, Adams, Brown, Tyreek, and Michael Thomas/Julio, in no particular order. 

 

I think his versatility is what sets him apart from the other WRs.  Guy could take an end around to the house.  The creative playcalling in KC and effort to get the ball in the hands of their dynamic weapons is what really boosts his potential.  If they get a great replacement for Hunt in the backfield, it makes Hill even more dangerous as teams will have to focus on the run as well.

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Tyreek has been pretty ridiculous scoring touchdowns since he entered the NFL. He came into the league in 2016, and has played 47 of 48 possible games (the one game missed, was when KC rested their starters in Week 17 2017).

 

Here are all the WR's since 2000 who have scored at least 30 TD's in their first 47 games:
(the list goes back to 2000, as that's as far back as it goes on Pro Football Reference for this particular search)

 

      Scoring
Rk Player From To Lg Tm G W L T W-L% XPM XPA XP% FGM FGA FG% 2PM Sfty TD Pts
1 Odell Beckham 2014 2017 NFL NYG 47 21 26 0 0.447                 38 228
2 Tyreek Hill 2016 2018 NFL KAN 47 33 14 0 0.702                 34 204
3 Dez Bryant 2010 2013 NFL DAL 47 21 26 0 0.447             1   33 200

 

I also did some manual searches, as I thought about and realized Randy Moss just misses the cut, entering the league in 1998. He had 43 TD's in his first 47 games. And Jerry Rice tops them all, with 44 TD's in his first 47 games. I'm sure there are other WR's who have topped 30 TD's in such a span as well, but as the Pro Football Reference list only goes back to 2000, this list will have to do, to show how elite Tyreek has been at getting in the end zone. 

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Tyreek is firmly a WR1.   Only thing I can think of that can hurt him is the potential for improvement in KC's defense.   They're probably not investing much in the offense, but if they can shave off some points against, the offense can also do the same, and there's less need for 40 point wins.    

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Posted (edited)

whats with this guy starting 2019 threads?  Chiefs and Tyreek are still in the playoffs.  Keep it in the 2018 thread until the season is over.    I feel like this is bad luck/ bad juju what ever.  

Edited by fakespike

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, BrianM said:

Tyreek is firmly a WR1.   Only thing I can think of that can hurt him is the potential for improvement in KC's defense.   They're probably not investing much in the offense, but if they can shave off some points against, the offense can also do the same, and there's less need for 40 point wins.    

 

I've thought about the possibility of an improved KC defense hurting Tyreek. One interesting thing I noted towards this though, is this:

 

In 2018, KC allowed less than 20 points in 4 games. Tyreek had 3 of his Stud games during the 4 sub-20 point games...

--Week 7 when KC allowed 10 points and won 45-10.

--Week 10 when KC allowed 14 points and won 26-14.

--Week 17 when KC allowed 3 points and won 35-3.

 

He had 3 Duds the whole season and they came in these games...

--Week 3 when KC allowed 27 points and won 38-27.

--Week 13 when KC allowed 33 points and won 40-33.

--Week 15 when KC allowed 29 points and lost 28-29. 

 

So it's tough to say if an improved defense will hurt him...or possibly help him :) 

Edited by Corleone
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7 hours ago, Corleone said:

(the .25 point PPR format also grants 1 point for every 30 return yards, and gives a 3 point bonus for a 100-yard receiving game)
(the 1 point PPR format has no points for return yardage, 1 bonus point at 100 yards, 1.5 points at 150 yards, 2 points at 200 yards, and 1 point for 40+ yard receptions)

Amigo, I generally appreciate your posts. But maybe can you refer to more accepted formats to reference these guys, for instance standard .5 PPR without bonuses?
I'm not hating on your format, nothing wrong with custom, but it makes your numbers a lot less relevant to the majority of the people here, especially when you repeatedly refer to them

FWIW, this is the PPR WR for week 1-16 according to fantasypros:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/ppr-wr.php?year=2018&start=1&end=16

RANK

PLAYER

TEAM

POINTS

GAMES

AVG

1

Davante Adams

GB

329.6

15

22.0

2

Antonio Brown

PIT

323.7

15

21.6

3

Michael Thomas

NO

307.6

15

20.5

4

DeAndre Hopkins

HOU

306.8

15

20.5

5

Adam Thielen

MIN

300.6

15

20.0

6

Tyreek Hill

KC

299.4

15

20.0

7

Julio Jones

ATL

297.0

15

19.8

8

JuJu Smith-Schuster

PIT

282.2

15

18.8

9

Robert Woods

LAR

261.1

15

17.4

10

Mike Evans

TB

255.8

15

17.1

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Hill was not #1 in PPR given the stock settings, so you can't really claim that even if you added a little footnote about your league rules.  He finished around #5 in regular PPR.  Should be firmly entrenched as a WR1 next year and i'll gladly scoop him in the 2nd.

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57 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Amigo, I generally appreciate your posts. But maybe can you refer to more accepted formats to reference these guys, for instance standard .5 PPR without bonuses?
I'm not hating on your format, nothing wrong with custom, but it makes your numbers a lot less relevant to the majority of the people here, especially when you repeatedly refer to them

FWIW, this is the PPR WR for week 1-16 according to fantasypros:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/ppr-wr.php?year=2018&start=1&end=16

RANK

PLAYER

TEAM

POINTS

GAMES

AVG

1

Davante Adams

GB

329.6

15

22.0

2

Antonio Brown

PIT

323.7

15

21.6

3

Michael Thomas

NO

307.6

15

20.5

4

DeAndre Hopkins

HOU

306.8

15

20.5

5

Adam Thielen

MIN

300.6

15

20.0

6

Tyreek Hill

KC

299.4

15

20.0

7

Julio Jones

ATL

297.0

15

19.8

8

JuJu Smith-Schuster

PIT

282.2

15

18.8

9

Robert Woods

LAR

261.1

15

17.4

10

Mike Evans

TB

255.8

15

17.1


Thanks for the initial comment. To address your points, my take is that no matter what is used, there will be people who use different formats. For example...

 

You mention referring to standard .50 PPR...but from my experience in leagues and in reading Forum comments, there are more people in either complete Standard (no PPR) or 1 point PPR.

 

You mention referring to no bonuses...but again from my experience, most leagues do utilize 100-yard bonuses. And even for those without bonuses, it's not like Tyreek would be the only WR getting credit in the rankings listed. All WR's are getting credit. So the individual point totals may not be the same across leagues, based on the existence or absence of bonus points...but the positional ranking will generally be the same. 

 

It's worth noting that of the formats I mentioned, Tyreek was #1 in .25 and 1 point PPR formats. My general experience (and certainly, there can be some exceptions) is that rankings for WR's are at least very close across various scoring formats (it's RB's where I find there can be greater differences). 

 

As far as the above list you quoted from, that is through Week 16 only. I can understand that, as the fantasy season for almost everyone ends in Week 16. But the season does go until Week 17 and most of the top 10 WR's did play in the final week to boot (Adams and AB being the exceptions - and AB's absence was because of the drama surrounding him, not because of the team resting stars). For the particular format you quoted, Tyreek would be #3 through Week 17 (and 5.5 points out of the top spot). Does that particular site count return yardage and TD's for players? It may not...but many leagues do count that (another example of how scoring systems can have differences). 

 

Overall IMO, all listings of rankings should be balanced with the reader/fantasy owner taking into account their own scoring system :)

 

With all that said, here are a few mass sites in which Tyreek is #1:

--https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/wr.php?year=2018&start=1&end=17 (same site you quoted, adjusted to Standard)
--https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr-wr.php?year=2018&start=1&end=17 (same site you quoted, adjusted to .50 PPR)

--https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/sortable/points/WR/standard/stats/2018/ytd (adjusted to Standard)

--https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillTy00.htm (as listed in the Fantasy section near the latter half of the page)

**for further details on the one above, you can check here, where he is #1 across all 4 rankings they have listed:  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/fantasy.htm

 

(note even for Standard, even though Tyreek is #1 across the board with the links posted, the fantasy point totals are all different...so back to the original point, I just don't know that there's only one accepted format)

 

@kdko - see above, as I see you posted a similar sentiment to @Boudewijn. And I certainly wasn't trying to add just a "little footnote". It was posted right in the middle of the post, directly after the #1 ranking, and italicized to make sure people were fully aware of what type of formats I was referring to...since scoring formats are indeed different. 

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5 minutes ago, Corleone said:

You mention referring to no bonuses...but again from my experience, most leagues do utilize 100-yard bonuses.

Default Yahoo these days has no bonuses, no return yards. I can't speak for ESPN or other sites, but with Yahoo being one of the leaders, and most leagues not playing around too much with the defaults, I question your statements :)

Anyway, both kdko and me made the same point (independently) to help you. Stop being defensive, and think about it!

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1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

Default Yahoo these days has no bonuses, no return yards. I can't speak for ESPN or other sites, but with Yahoo being one of the leaders, and most leagues not playing around too much with the defaults, I question your statements :)

Anyway, both kdko and me made the same point (independently) to help you. Stop being defensive, and think about it!

 

I explained my reasoning towards things, without any attacks or shouting (as you just did - "stop being defensive, and think about it!"). 

 

If you wanted a response that simply said "You are exactly right", oh well. 

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8 hours ago, fakespike said:

whats with this guy starting 2019 threads?  Chiefs and Tyreek are still in the playoffs.  Keep it in the 2018 thread until the season is over.    I feel like this is bad luck/ bad juju what ever.  

Fantasy season is over for all intents and purposes. The only real relevant thread at this point to the current season is the playoff one. No problem with 2019 threads.

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If you bet big on Tyreek Hill as a Top 5 WR this season over the effects of Sammy Watkins, a crowded offense, and a slight unknown at QB entering the season giving Hill a boom-bust WR1/high-end WR2 outlook, you cashed in one of the best tickets this season by far. Bravo.

 

It is an easy call to say that Tyreek Hill is set up to run it back in 2019, and likely beyond.

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:33 PM, Zak0221 said:

 Hill 1A / Hopkins 1B next year then the other top 10 WR are just a tier below those two. 

 

I still can't believe how lucky I was to draft both of these guys this season, Hopkins (2nd) and T Hill (4th) .  Not even sure either guy makes it to me at the 12th pick this year, but if one of them do I will grab them with the 12/13th pick.  

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I’ve never owned Hill but he seems like a lot of fun. 

Hill Is still somewhat inconsistent for a top 10 pick. 

 he had 8 games under 15 points (PPR) and 4 of those games he had 10 points or less. 

Adams lowest PPR game in my league was 16 points. Most weeks he sat between 20-25 consistently. 

Hopkins lowest PPR game was 12.4 

AB did have 1 game under 10 points and 1 other game under 15 points. 

 

Hill has enormous upside. When he has a 35+ point game he wins you your week but he could lose you your week when he gets you 6-9 points  4 times a year. 

 

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Most leagues are standard, 1/2 PPR, or full PPR, and most do not utilize bonuses. I’ve never seen a 1/4 PPR league. 

 

Hill is a stud, but if given the choice, I’d take Adams over him without much hesitation unless I owned Mahomes. Much more consistency this year with Adams. He never scored less that 12 points in 1/2 PPR all season. 

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Posted (edited)

2019 FF Rankings Prediction: WR

Nuk

Adams

Brown

Jones

Thomas

Hill

TY

Juju

Thielan

OBJ

Evans

Diggs

AJG

Edited by phegotgame14

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