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Tyreek Hill 2019 Outlook

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Much lower ceiling and floor with Moore but looks like he’s not going to be totally useless

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Honestly I would not be a happy camper if that TD didn't happen. Crazy how fantasy football can impact your mood so heavily. 

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As long as Mahomes' injury doesn't prove to be season ending, hard not to be encouraged.

57 yard bombs against Chris Harris with Matt Moore throwing to him in Denver?

I'm good.

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If they are smart they will get him the ball on some of those jet sweeps, reverses and screens against GB.  That wide set defensive line creates a ton of holes at the LOS.

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Had to jump ship with the uncertainty of mahomes. Good luck this year guys, I’ll be back next year. Go cheetah! 

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The only positive about Moore is that he was always a gun slinger so that should help Hill.  

As we saw last night, Hill is simply a play-maker and it just takes one from him.  Have to think that Reid will now tailor this offense around Moore's skillset and they just need to get Hill the ball.

Considering that Hill have zero points on zero targets last night, I'll take that performance all day.  His ceiling wasn't that high to begin with going against the Broncos secondary but he hit his projection.  He roasted CHJ on that TD too...

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I don't even think the Mahomes injury hurts Tyreek's floor very much, if at all. He will get more designed touches, screens, jet sweeps and so on. This will only help his floor. For a player like him every touch can turn into a big play TD. He won't reach his ceiling with Moore, but man, what's his ceiling like 200/3? Hard to bet against Moore and Tyreek not connecting on some long bombs.

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9 minutes ago, frog34 said:

I don't even think the Mahomes injury hurts Tyreek's floor very much, if at all. He will get more designed touches, screens, jet sweeps and so on. This will only help his floor. For a player like him every touch can turn into a big play TD. He won't reach his ceiling with Moore, but man, what's his ceiling like 200/3? Hard to bet against Moore and Tyreek not connecting on some long bombs.

 

Image result for he fast.gif

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9 hours ago, dakimbell said:

You must have missed Hill making the defense look silly and walking into the endzone for a 56 yard TD tonight. Had to have missed it

Yeah, that Denver secondary didn't do any better than the 43 kids that Sports Science had trying to catch him that one episode. 

 

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Look at how impossible it was for the kids to rip off the flag at the end of that clip.  I call BS.

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11 hours ago, dakimbell said:

You must have missed Hill making the defense look silly and walking into the endzone for a 56 yard TD tonight. Had to have missed it

 

Yeah, that totally proves Hill will be getting 56 yard TDs going forward, great analysis. If you honestly think Moore doesn't suck a lot of value from Hill, I don't know what to tell ya. He's not a good QB, let alone comparable to Mahommes.

I have Hill and am glad we got bailed out with that one play, but I'm hoping this doesn't turn into a situation where Hill basically becomes John Brown and needs a big play to save his value every week.

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4 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

Yeah, that totally proves Hill will be getting 56 yard TDs going forward, great analysis. If you honestly think Moore doesn't suck a lot of value from Hill, I don't know what to tell ya. He's not a good QB, let alone comparable to Mahommes.

I have Hill and am glad we got bailed out with that one play, but I'm hoping this doesn't turn into a situation where Hill basically becomes John Brown and needs a big play to save his value every week.

I mean Moore's not good, but he still fed Hill 5 targets for 74 yards and a TD in the second half of a blowout game for the Chiefs. Moore is absolutely capable enough to get the ball to Hill on designed screens and short passing attempts and to hit him when Hill uses his otherworldly speed to get behind the secondary. Of course Hill is going to drop a little bit while Mahomes is out, but he is still firmly a WR1 in this offense. They will intentionally be looking to get him the ball in space more so than ever.

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1 minute ago, dakimbell said:

I mean Moore's not good, but he still fed Hill 5 targets for 74 yards and a TD in the second half of a blowout game for the Chiefs. Moore is absolutely capable enough to get the ball to Hill on designed screens and short passing attempts and to hit him when Hill uses his otherworldly speed to get behind the secondary. Of course Hill is going to drop a little bit while Mahomes is out, but he is still firmly a WR1 in this offense. They will intentionally be looking to get him the ball in space more so than ever.

 

I hope you are correct and think Reid is as good as any coach scheming with his personnel. If the bombs diminish and the receptions go up I can live with that.

I also expect a ton of RB dumpoffs and swing passes going forward if Reid's past usage with lesser QBs is any indication. McCoy goes up a notch and maybe even Damien Williams stops being a complete waste of a pick.

Edited by kball09
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8 minutes ago, kball09 said:

Yeah, that totally proves Hill will be getting 56 yard TDs going forward, great analysis. If you honestly think Moore doesn't suck a lot of value from Hill, I don't know what to tell ya. He's not a good QB, let alone comparable to Mahommes.

I have Hill and am glad we got bailed out with that one play, but I'm hoping this doesn't turn into a situation where Hill basically becomes John Brown and needs a big play to save his value every week.

You forget this was against the best (statistically) defense against opposing WRs. 

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1 hour ago, collucho said:

You forget this was against the best (statistically) defense against opposing WRs. 

 

Geez dude, it was one play where a CB got beat in one on one coverage. Who cares what the total defense is statistically? But you do you bro.

Edited by kball09

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Just now, kball09 said:

Geez dude, it was one play where a CB got beat. Who cares what the total defense is statistically? But you do you bro.

The same CB that kids literally sit WRs against for fear of getting shutdown. All I'm saying is if Matt Moore and Tyreek can connect for a 50+ yard TD given one half of football against a good defense in their stadium then they can do it against pretty much anyone. 

But feel free to sit Tyreek until Mahomes comes back. You do you bro.

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Hill had no targets when Mahomes was still in the game. Not saying anything, just found it interesting cause I was pouting thinking he was headed for a really bad game.

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6 minutes ago, collucho said:

The same CB that kids literally sit WRs against for fear of getting shutdown. All I'm saying is if Matt Moore and Tyreek can connect for a 50+ yard TD given one half of football against a good defense in their stadium then they can do it against pretty much anyone. 

But feel free to sit Tyreek until Mahomes comes back. You do you bro.

 

No one said jack about sitting him smartass ;) Keep taking one play and extrapolating it across the season, it's going to serve you well.

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5 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

No one said jack about sitting him smartass ;) Keep taking one play and extrapolating it across the season, it's going to serve you well.

Well if the initial reports are truthful I only need to extrapolate them over a few weeks. 15 points a half with Matt Moore=30 points a game. Sounds like an UPGRADE!!!! 🤣

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3 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

No one said jack about sitting him smartass ;) Keep taking one play and extrapolating it across the season, it's going to serve you well.

Have you never owned Tyreek hill before because that is the type of player he is.
If he doesn’t jump over Reid last week his stat line is 4-34-1 which aren’t WR1 numbers. He isn’t a compiler, he’s rarely catching 10 passes (2 times in his career) no matter who his QB is but he does score long TDs pretty frequently as he has 17 TDs of 50+ yards. So every Tyreek Hill owner is banking on one big play a week not 10 small ones.

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1 hour ago, kball09 said:

 

Yeah, that totally proves Hill will be getting 56 yard TDs going forward, great analysis. If you honestly think Moore doesn't suck a lot of value from Hill, I don't know what to tell ya. He's not a good QB, let alone comparable to Mahommes.

I have Hill and am glad we got bailed out with that one play, but I'm hoping this doesn't turn into a situation where Hill basically becomes John Brown and needs a big play to save his value every week.

Hill is like John Brown and always has been, except he's much much better at it.

Before you go throwing dirt on his prospects with Moore, consider for a moment that his YAC per reception last year was 10.9.  After the catch, he turned in 527 yards last year with Mahomes.  Some of that was on deep balls, sure, but there are few players in the game that can turn a five yard slant into a 50 yard play better in the league due to his elite game breaking speed.

TL;DR, of course when you lose an MVP QB you have to consider the impact to the receiver, but I'm not considering the play past night to be flukey- that's who Hill is.

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5 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Have you never owned Tyreek hill before because that is the type of player he is.
If he doesn’t jump over Reid last week his stat line is 4-34-1 which aren’t WR1 numbers. He isn’t a compiler, he’s rarely catching 10 passes (2 times in his career) no matter who his QB is but he does score long TDs pretty frequently as he has 17 TDs of 50+ yards. So every Tyreek Hill owner is banking on one big play a week not 10 small ones.

Yeah, people get hung up on his targets but he is not a volume guy. He's a catch and burn guy. That's reflected in where he ranked in targets and receptions last year. They don't call him "Cheetah" for nothing. He ranked #1 among all fantasy receivers in PPR last season and that's all people should care about. It's like, don't draft the dude thinking he's going to soak up targets.

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Some of you seem to somehow be forgetting that oh btw that's Moore throwing to him, not Mahomes. There's a reason Moore was teaching 10th graders how to dissect a frog earlier this year vs prepping for the upcoming season. He cannot improvise or escape trouble or toss the ball nearly as well. This is a huge hit for Hill and it has nothing to do with Hill's ability. How huge we don't know yet but it's 3 weeks of WR stress for Hill owners lol

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