Corleone

Saquon Barkley 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Saquon Barkley had one heck of a rookie season in 2018. Amongst his highlights...

 

--He led the NFL in yards from scrimmage, with 2,028 yards.

--He was just the third rookie ever to top 2,000 total yards (the others being Eric Dickerson in 1983 and Edgerrin James in 1999).
[bizarre bonus points for the last two rookies to do this, having had a Manning brother as their team's QB]

--He led the NFL in 20+ yard runs, with 16 such runs (next closest total was 11).

--He led the NFL in 40+ yard runs, with 7 such runs (next closest total was 4). 

--He was second in the NFL in RB catches, with 91. That was also the most catches for a rookie RB ever (breaking Reggie Bush's 2006 total of 88).

--He was tied for third in the NFL in touchdowns, with 15. 

--This is dependent on your format, but in 1 point PPR, he led all non-QB's in fantasy points, with 403.30. At worst, he may have been #2 in other formats.

 

The question now is where does Saquon go in 2019 drafts, for regular 1QB leagues? As of right now, I think most people have him at least in the top 5 (along with Gurley, CMC, Elliott, and Kamara). And some would have him as the #1 pick overall.

 

Even with the question marks that the Giants have, as of right now, I rank Saquon as the #1 pick myself. But what does everyone else have to say? Go!

saquon-barkley-hurdle.jpg

Edited by Corleone
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Year 2 will depend on how the Giants use him.  He gained ALOT of value because of how awful Eli Manning was this year just dumping the ball off at will. 

 

He will probably settle into a  60-70 catch guy if the offense improves as it should and upgrades the QB.  If his body holds up he could be one of the most consistent top 5 RBs drafted next 10 years, think modern day LT in terms of a fantasy nightmare to see on the opposing squad.

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He is my #2 behind CMC right now and will likely stay there unless Giants take Haskins (who hasn’t declared yet). Kamara is also in the conversation if Ingram is gone and then there’s obviously Gurley.

 

There will be a few can’t go wrong picks at #1 and this stud will be one of them. Him and Kamara are two of the most fun backs to watch. 

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32 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

He is my #2 behind CMC right now and will likely stay there unless Giants take Haskins (who hasn’t declared yet). Kamara is also in the conversation if Ingram is gone and then there’s obviously Gurley.

 

There will be a few can’t go wrong picks at #1 and this stud will be one of them. Him and Kamara are two of the most fun backs to watch. 

 

 

If you’re going to penalize Eli for being awful you have to say the same about Newton.  Those last few weeks he did nothing but dump offs to CMC.  They know they can’t win games like that.  

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Was hearing some conversation about him as overall No.1 - I still think that will be Gurley then I think the next 3 will be Zeke, Saquan, McCarthy - and they will be pretty interchangeable where from one league to the next its gonna be some shuffle of those 3 in picks 2-4 and even some where one of them goes No.1 

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Posted (edited)

I see no reason to willingly buy into a garbage offense on the downswing when alternative options are available. The offense will certainly be worse next year if they replace Eli with a rookie, who has been serviceable despite clearly not being the future. I'd definitely take Gurley over him, would take Kamara over him if Ingram is gone, then he'd be in the convo with CMC and Zeke.

Edited by MJJ28

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We could see his receptions take a downturn if OBJ and Engram rebound, and if the Giants can find a legitimate no2 WR. It would benefit Barkley in the long run, but would steal some receptions. Of course, that also depends on the QB situation. 

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Posted (edited)

A common thought expressed about the 2018 Giants is that their offense was awful (besides Saquon/Odell), due to a terrible season from Eli and a terrible offensive line. I watched almost every Giants game as a sort-of fan (I live in NJ, my wife is a Giants fan, it's the game we get locally and when we watch with friends, and as long as they aren't playing the Jets, I root for them). I say that because I admit at times (many times), the Giants offense was tough to watch. Eli was often a dump-off machine, and the offensive line did Eli no favors with poor play. But the Giants did get better as the season progressed. With the season now over, here are some stats that show the Giants weren't as bad as some of us thought by the time it was all said and done...

 

(out of 32 teams)

--16th in points scored (369 points and this isn't skewed from D or ST TD's, as they had 3 such TD's - 17 teams had less D/ST TD's)

--17th in offensive yards (5697 yards)

--11th in total passing yards (4047 yards and this includes sack yardage deduction)

--14th in yards per offensive play (5.8 Y/P)

--12th in interceptions (12 INT's)

--21st in passing TD's (23 TD's; of course, 2 were thrown by OBJ)

--23rd in sacks allowed (47 sacks)

 

Are these rankings great? Certainly not. But for the most part, they are more middle of the pack (or non-disaster) than one might have thought.

 

One of the things that may have gone somewhat under the radar for the Giants, was the mid-season acquisition of Jamon Brown for their offensive line. Brown was picked up off waivers after the Rams cut him, and he was with NYG from Weeks 10--17. The Giants o-line was a mess early on, especially with Ereck Flowers (who was cut after Week 5). But with Brown on the line after their Week 9 bye, the Giants offensive line did do a lot better...

--Weeks 1--8: 31 sacks allowed (which would put them on a full-season pace for 62 sacks; that'd be tied for worst - 31st - in the NFL)

--Week 9: Brown is picked up a few days into their bye week

--Weeks 10--17: 16 sacks allowed (which would put them on a full-season pace for 32 sacks; that'd be tied for the 6th in the NFL)

 

With better offensive line play, the Giants began playing better as a whole. Check these numbers out...

--Weeks 1--8: 150 points scored (18.75 PPG, which would put them on a full-season pace for 27th in the NFL)

--Weeks 10--17: 219 points scored (27.38 PPG; which would put them on a full-season pace for 4th PPG in the NFL, behind only KC, LAR & NO)

 

In addition, the Giants scored 30 or more points just once in Weeks 1--8, after not achieving that at all in 2016 OR 2017.

But in Weeks 10--17, they scored 30 or more points in 4 of 8 weeks, and at least 22 points in 7 games (even with OBJ missing the last 4 games).

 

"On pace" stats have to be taken with some grain of salt. We don't know if the Giants could have achieved such "on pace" numbers for a full 16 games. But what we do know is that the Giants were significantly better in the second half of their season. Looking ahead to 2019, it remains to be seen as to who the Giants QB will be. If it is Eli, it's certainly possible he'll take a further decline. There are other questions beyond QB too. But with all that said, the team played pretty well offensively in many respects over the second half, so there is some reason for optimism as Saquon heads into his second season.

Edited by Corleone
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Giants need to prioritize the O-line this offseason. Eli is a serviceable quarterback as long as he doesn't have to fear for his life every time he drops back to pass. A better pass offense paves the way for more running room for Barkley.

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I watched this guy create almost every yard on his own, with the exception of an eagles game and a redskins game. Its something i havent seen in a while. Other elite backs looked like a shell of themselves in that situation. You all have eyes. Please pass on him, more Barkley for the rest of us.

 

 

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5 hours ago, fachowski said:

Giants need to prioritize the O-line this offseason. Eli is a serviceable quarterback as long as he doesn't have to fear for his life every time he drops back to pass. A better pass offense paves the way for more running room for Barkley.

In no way, shape, or form is Eli serviceable. 

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Number one RB in dynasty, and a top three RB in any format.

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On 1/2/2019 at 10:17 PM, Flyman75 said:

We could see his receptions take a downturn if OBJ and Engram rebound, and if the Giants can find a legitimate no2 WR. It would benefit Barkley in the long run, but would steal some receptions. Of course, that also depends on the QB situation. 

 

his target volume would drop but you would think with a more dynamic offense his td totals would jump

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Honestly, his reception total went down in the second half of the season. I think this was partly due to the negative criticism Eli got for dumping off too much. I think with either a new QB or better offense, the catches will hover around 70-80 with more opportunities for longer receptions, leading to overall similar production. Also, the O-Line should be a point of improvement this offseason, meaning that his running lanes might even be better. 

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56 minutes ago, ak427 said:

Honestly, his reception total went down in the second half of the season. I think this was partly due to the negative criticism Eli got for dumping off too much. I think with either a new QB or better offense, the catches will hover around 70-80 with more opportunities for longer receptions, leading to overall similar production. Also, the O-Line should be a point of improvement this offseason, meaning that his running lanes might even be better. 

 

I think a lot of this also had to do with some teams realizing that without Beckham, all you really have to do is stop Barkley.   

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45 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I think a lot of this also had to do with some teams realizing that without Beckham, all you really have to do is stop Barkley.   

 

Definitely true. His YPC was way down towards the end, a product of teams stacking and forcing the Giants to pass to beat them. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, ak427 said:

Honestly, his reception total went down in the second half of the season. I think this was partly due to the negative criticism Eli got for dumping off too much. I think with either a new QB or better offense, the catches will hover around 70-80 with more opportunities for longer receptions, leading to overall similar production. Also, the O-Line should be a point of improvement this offseason, meaning that his running lanes might even be better. 

 

1 hour ago, K197040 said:

 

I think a lot of this also had to do with some teams realizing that without Beckham, all you really have to do is stop Barkley.   

 

51 minutes ago, ak427 said:

 

Definitely true. His YPC was way down towards the end, a product of teams stacking and forcing the Giants to pass to beat them. 

 

As far as first vs second halves of the season...

 

--Saquon 1st half (Games 1--8): 111 carries - 519 yards - 4.68 YPC - 5 TD & 58 catches - 497 yards - 2 TD (1016 total yards)

--Saquon 1st half: 4 games held to under 4.0 YPC; 2 games with 100 rushing yards
 

--Saquon 2nd half (Games 9-16): 150 carries - 788 yards - 5.25 YPC - 6 TD & 33 catches - 224 yards - 2 TD (1012 total yards)

--Saquon 2nd half: 3 games held to under 4.0 YPC; 5 games with 100 rushing yards

Edited by Corleone
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12 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

 

 

As far as first vs second halves of the season...

 

--Saquon 1st half (Games 1--8): 111 carries - 519 yards - 4.68 YPC - 5 TD & 58 catches - 497 yards - 2 TD (1016 total yards)

--Saquon 1st half: 4 games held to under 4.0 YPC; 2 games with 100 rushing yards
 

--Saquon 2nd half (Games 9-16): 150 carries - 788 yards - 5.25 YPC - 6 TD & 33 catches - 224 yards - 2 TD (1012 total yards)

--Saquon 2nd half: 3 games held to under 4.0 YPC; 5 games with 100 rushing yards

 

Interesting. Catches being way down is not suprising, but I did not expect his YPC to actually be up

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

As far as first vs second halves of the season...

 

--Saquon 1st half (Games 1--8): 111 carries - 519 yards - 4.68 YPC - 5 TD & 58 catches - 497 yards - 2 TD (1016 total yards)

--Saquon 1st half: 4 games held to under 4.0 YPC; 2 games with 100 rushing yards
 

--Saquon 2nd half (Games 9-16): 150 carries - 788 yards - 5.25 YPC - 6 TD & 33 catches - 224 yards - 2 TD (1012 total yards)

--Saquon 2nd half: 3 games held to under 4.0 YPC; 5 games with 100 rushing yards

 

Nicely done! ;)

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2 hours ago, ak427 said:

 

Interesting. Catches being way down is not suprising, but I did not expect his YPC to actually be up

 

 ypc is a misleading and abused metric. You can probably correlate his ypc increasing because he probably had more big runs which will distorts the ypc

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3 hours ago, ak427 said:

 

Interesting. Catches being way down is not suprising, but I did not expect his YPC to actually be up

 

53 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 ypc is a misleading and abused metric. You can probably correlate his ypc increasing because he probably had more big runs which will distorts the ypc

 

If his YPC increased in the second because he probably had more big runs in the second half...is that a bad thing? Having more big runs is a good thing as a whole. But good news is this is easy to figure out using Pro Football Reference's Play Index...
 

--Saquon 1st half (Games 1--8): 7 carries of 20+ yards for 266 total yards

--Saquon 1st half: minus his "big runs", he had 104 carries - 253 yards - 2.43 YPC
 

--Saquon 2nd half (Games 9-16): 9 carries of 20+ yards for 375 total yards

--Saquon 2nd half: minus his "big runs", he had 141 carries - 413 yards - 2.93 YPC

 

So Saquon's YPC increased not just because of big runs, but because his non-big runs were better in the second half overall :) 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

 

If his YPC increased in the second because he probably had more big runs in the second half...is that a bad thing? Having more big runs is a good thing as a whole. But good news is this is easy to figure out using Pro Football Reference's Play Index...
 

--Saquon 1st half (Games 1--8): 7 carries of 20+ yards for 266 total yards

--Saquon 1st half: minus his "big runs", he had 104 carries - 253 yards - 2.43 YPC
 

--Saquon 2nd half (Games 9-16): 9 carries of 20+ yards for 375 total yards

--Saquon 2nd half: minus his "big runs", he had 141 carries - 413 yards - 2.93 YPC

 

So Saquon's YPC increased not just because of big runs, but because his non-big runs were better in the second half overall :) 

 

yeah u sort of missed the point.  Stating that YPC  is a misleading and  abused metric is not a verdict on Barkelys production, it  means ypc doesnt tell you the distribution of those runs. So without context  quoting a ypc doesnt indicate how good the rb is whether he had 100 carries  10 also it's the worst way to compare rb's and your read on blogs and in the forum  of how rb #1 had a ypc that was less or greater than rb#2 as if it  indicates superiority or inferiority.

Edited by dashoe

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

yeah u sort of missed the point.  Stating that YPC  is a misleading and  abused metric is not a verdict on Barkelys production, it  means ypc doesnt tell you the distribution of those runs. So without context  quoting a ypc doesnt indicate how good the rb is whether he had 100 carries  10 also it's the worst way to compare rb's and your read on blogs and in the forum  of how rb #1 had a ypc that was less or greater than rb#2 as if it  indicates superiority or inferiority.

 

Wow. 

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