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Nelson Cruz 2019 Outlook

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Another 36-40 HR, 90-100 RBI type season incoming?


Why not?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-ageless-nelson-cruz-is-a-twin/

 

So overall, the park switch is surprisingly positive all around. Before checking the factors, I assumed they would be similar and Cruz’s value would remain relatively stable. That’s not the case though, as Target should boost Cruz’s BABIP and HR/FB rate, while reducing his strikeout rate. While this analysis makes no mention of his age and possible decline finally coming, don’t forget that and think that the park switch means he’ll automatically perform at least as well as 2018.

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I like the Minnesota move because on paper a lot of things stay fairly similar for the 38-39 yo man. Still a DH, AL Central instead of West, but probably sees a good number of similar pitchers and similar parks. 

 

The only question is age, which at 38-39 is legitimate to ask. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

I like the Minnesota move because on paper a lot of things stay fairly similar for the 38-39 yo man. Still a DH, AL Central instead of West, but probably sees a good number of similar pitchers and similar parks. 

 

The only question is age, which at 38-39 is legitimate to ask. 

 

Agree.

 

The decline will obviously begin to happen at some point in the near future. Maybe he has a couple more good years like Poppi did.

 

Dear Minny, no PED tests please.

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It sure is fun to watch him hit 40 HRs over the course of the season for your team but what others have said above are right, the decline is going to happen soon. It's like sticking your hand in a crocodile's mouth, you might be able to do it once or twice but that thing is going to snap shut and once it does, it's over. Sorry guys, it's the first thing I thought of for a metaphor.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

It sure is fun to watch him hit 40 HRs over the course of the season for your team but what others have said above are right, the decline is going to happen soon. It's like sticking your hand in a crocodile's mouth, you might be able to do it once or twice but that thing is going to snap shut and once it does, it's over. Sorry guys, it's the first thing I thought of for a metaphor.

Boomstick will die on my dynasty team. And when the time comes that croc will get his..

alligator_head.jpg

 

Edited by SwayzeExpress
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Posted (edited)

Given weather conditions he might have a slow April though.  Games at Target get snowed out in April at times and the ball doesn't fly as well in the cold.  Owners will have to remember patience as a result.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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Underrated right now. Age, DH and signing with Minn will drive down draft position, but real profit potential where he’s going (128 in NFBC ADP). Especially if you go speed and or pitching early and need power mid rounds, he’s a real nice value at that point. 

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People have predicted cruz’s Age related death every year for the past 5 or 6 years and every year he’s been a draft day bargain. I don’t expect it to be any different this year.

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10 hours ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

How early do you feel comfortable taking him in redraft? Starting around pick 50 or so?

Anytime after 80 feels right.  

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When they played interleague games last season, did Cruz play the field, or were those games he sat out completely?

 

Didn't own him last season and just seeing how that would affect his PT.

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Cruz is a discount player for VERY fair reasons. Locked in UT. Old as f---. 

 

Is there ANY player that has the last FIVE years of Nelson Cruz who isn't going literally in the first round? I'm buying Cruz but it's not a ton of confidence pick, it's an easy upside pick. If you get Arenado stats minus some R+RBI (maybe BA if 2018 repeats) after you've drafted the entire core of your team? That's really nice. I'm drafting Judge or Harper or Stanton in a lot of drafts, I like Khris Davis. But if I miss on a lot of the premium HR optinos especially, Cruz shoots up the board like a rocket. 

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7 hours ago, crazybob60 said:

When they played interleague games last season, did Cruz play the field, or were those games he sat out completely?

 

Didn't own him last season and just seeing how that would affect his PT.

He only played 4 games in the outfield last year. 

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