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Joe Odam

Derrius Guice 2019 Outlook

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#loftygoals :o

 

Personally I can't get enough of watching tape of this guy. He literally jumps off the screen. Vision, explosiveness, feet, finish ability, hands and  breakaway speed are all present

IF:

1) He's 100% for the start of the regular season 

2) He has a qb equal to or greater than Alex Smith

3) He has a healthy offensive line 

 

THEN:

1) He has the potential to be a legitimately elite running back 

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DND for me next year if his ADP gets to the 6th round given all the hype he's probably going to get.  Think AP will be back and efficient once more, and he's going to fall flat on his face.  Just my opinion.

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Posted (edited)

He has a lot of hype in dynasty circles, but for redraft next year I think his ADP will be far too high for me to be interested.

 

A non-Saquon type talent on a mediocre to bad offense sounds like fringe RB1/2 upside at best to me. Then factor in that the team likes to go to pure pass catching backs when they are down, and I'm gonna stay away when his price tag is inevitably at the 2/3 turn range. Upside in the 12ish range, with most likely a mehhh RB2 outcome unless they magically acquire a good QB and more weapons IMO.

Edited by MJJ28

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9 minutes ago, kdko said:

DND for me next year if his ADP gets to the 6th round given all the hype he's probably going to get.  Think AP will be back and efficient once more, and he's going to fall flat on his face.  Just my opinion.

If AP is back, it certainly will not be in a lead back capacity if Guice is healthy. Mentor and change of pace perhaps. I'd be less shocked if they didn't bring him back at all. AP is an all time freak but he's not Benjamin Button. Age is undefeated at the RB position. I predict Guice will be a late 2nd/early 3rd in 10-12 team leagues by mid August if he proves he's physically ready. Therefor he will evidently not be on your team. I'm not sure where I value him personally. It's too early. I'm in love with his potential though, I do know that to be fact

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21 minutes ago, kdko said:

DND for me next year if his ADP gets to the 6th round given all the hype he's probably going to get.  Think AP will be back and efficient once more, and he's going to fall flat on his face.  Just my opinion.

 

I doubt AP will be back for two reasons. One, the only reason he was in Washington, at all, was because of Guice’s injury. And he only signed a one-year deal, so what does that tell you of Washington’s expectstions for him beyond 2018?. Two, AP still believes he is and wants to be a no1 back. He’ll look to sign with a team where that’s possible. 

 

Why is it your opinion that Guice will fall flat on his face? 

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14 team league.   12th round keeper.   My body is ready.

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He's extremely talented if he literally jumps off the screen.

 

That's a DC/Marvel movie worthy ability.

 

 

 

 

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Didn't they say he had a ton of complications and he is questionable to make it back for the opener next year? 

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13 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Didn't they say he had a ton of complications and he is questionable to make it back for the opener next year? 

All indications are that the setbacks are well behind him and he’s on schedule for early summer OTA’s. He required antibiotics and a few “flushed” but it is not rare, if even uncommon to experience infection with surgery. 

Decent read:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/sports/2018/12/12/derrius-guice-his-rehab-delayed-by-infection-plans-return-faster-bigger-stronger/

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I'm a big fan of his and like his drive and determination but I think his ADP will be too high for my liking. I think he has tons of talent but he still hasn't played in a regular season NFL game.  He could be great and maybe he will be eventually but he could also start slow like Cook did this year.

 

Paying for potential...  Sometimes it doesn't always work out.

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6 hours ago, The Land Of Real Beer said:

He's extremely talented if he literally jumps off the screen.

 

That's a DC/Marvel movie worthy ability.

 

Well, Marvel maybe....:rolleyes:

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I dont' Tweet, but is that first post from him saying that he is going to be the MVP in 2019?  Can't knock a kid for being confident, but how about making it through your first NFL game healthy?

 

I would love to be able to keep this kid at a discount price.  But we have limited keeper picks so it makes it tough.  I think the hype will probably push him back up to 3rd round status again next year.  But it's always hard to trust anyone coming off major knee surgery, let alone essentially a rookie who also had multiple complications with that surgery.

 

Will be watching this offseason to see what develops.

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So long as he has no set backs in the off-season I think he will be worth a 3rd or 4th round pick in redraft. 

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In a dynasty league, I'd throw some lines out to see what I could get for him. Guice is on track to be able to play in 2019, but it could potentially end up be 2-3 full seasons before he gets a true hard look as an NFL running back if things don't go best-case scenario. As what was likely an early round pick in dynasty drafts last season, the potential alone for multiple seasons of little or no ROI can be tough to swallow for some owners depending on their philosophy and roster construction.

 

 

 

For redraft purposes, he has a list of imminent hurdles to clear before warranting substantial draft capital:

 

- QB questions, let alone QB play that was already sub par prior to the injuries the Redskins had at the position

- A successful and complete recovery from serious knee injury

- Be back on the field throughout offseason and preseason, and show promise in that span

- Offensive line that's need to improve, add talent, and get healthy

- Adrian Peterson could possibly be re-signed for 2019, maybe beyond

- Chris Thompson already a staple as 3rd down back, and offense as a whole, who is also in a contract year for 2019 season

 

The sky is the limit for Guice, but right now he is still currently grounded. 

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He is going to be drafted in every league before I would feel comfortable taking him. Hype going to drive the ADP into the 4th round imo.

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10 minutes ago, GreatScott! said:

So long as he has no set backs in the off-season I think he will be worth a 3rd or 4th round pick in redraft. 

 

15 minutes ago, Ed The Mundo said:

In a dynasty league, I'd throw some lines out to see what I could get for him. Guice is on track to be able to play in 2019, but it could potentially end up be 2-3 full seasons before he gets a true hard look as an NFL running back if things don't go best-case scenario. As what was likely an early round pick in dynasty drafts last season, the potential alone for multiple seasons of little or no ROI can be tough to swallow for some owners depending on their philosophy and roster construction.

 

 

 

For redraft purposes, he has a list of imminent hurdles to clear before warranting substantial draft capital:

 

- QB questions, let alone QB play that was already sub par prior to the injuries the Redskins had at the position

- A successful and complete recovery from serious knee injury

- Be back on the field throughout offseason and preseason, and show promise in that span

- Offensive line that's need to improve, add talent, and get healthy

- Adrian Peterson could possibly be re-signed for 2019, maybe beyond

- Chris Thompson already a staple as 3rd down back, and offense as a whole, who is also in a contract year for 2019 season

 

The sky is the limit for Guice, but right now he is still currently grounded. 

I've been trying all season to get him in keeper leagues and everyone is already buying the hype.  Have to pay "full price" in order to acquire him and I'm not willing to pay full price (i.e., top RB) right now.

 

Also as for ADP - if he stays healthy I bet by next August he is going close to round 2.  He won't be lasting until round 4 if he looks to be the starter in WSH.

 

In my 3 keeper leagues everyone is already drinking the koolaid. 

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6 hours ago, Big Nate said:

 

I've been trying all season to get him in keeper leagues and everyone is already buying the hype.  Have to pay "full price" in order to acquire him and I'm not willing to pay full price (i.e., top RB) right now.

 

Also as for ADP - if he stays healthy I bet by next August he is going close to round 2.  He won't be lasting until round 4 if he looks to be the starter in WSH.

 

In my 3 keeper leagues everyone is already drinking the koolaid. 

Early third would most likely be the high point.  Prior to his injury this past season he was a 3rd or 4th rounder. That was with a lot of hype. He hasn’t done anything to improve his stock. If anything there will be scared owners which should keep him at an average ADP of the 3rd round at the earliest.  He’s a solid hold for sure in a keeper league. 

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Avoid at your own risk. Would have been a RB1 this year had he played.

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44 minutes ago, petekrum said:

Avoid at your own risk. Would have been a RB1 this year had he played.

I like how you make statements that are hard to counter (Ingram will leave, Guice would have been RB1) yet not really rooted in cold hard fact (because nobody knows), and also not very useful. 

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2 hours ago, petekrum said:

Avoid at your own risk. Would have been a RB1 this year had he played.

Jim Brown might've been a rb1 if he had played too...

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Just as a gauge: Got an offer in dynasty this week:

 

David Johnson and Edmonds for Guice, Koutee, and my 1st round 2020 pick.

 

Not doing it.

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I like how you make statements that are hard to counter (Ingram will leave, Guice would have been RB1) yet not really rooted in cold hard fact (because nobody knows), and also not very useful. 

 

Look at the year AP had in Washington. That’s why Guice would have been a RB1. If you’ve been paying attention for the last few months you know Ingram will not be back in N.O.

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5 hours ago, petekrum said:

 

Look at the year AP had in Washington. That’s why Guice would have been a RB1. If you’ve been paying attention for the last few months you know Ingram will not be back in N.O.

 

Just because AP had a great year, doesn't mean that Guice would have.  AP might be 33 years old, but he actually knows what it takes to be successful in the NFL and has competed at the highest level for many years.  Who knows if Guice would have made all the right cuts, plays, etc.  Dude doesn't seem to have his head on straight given the off the field drama before the draft and announcing he's gonna be the 2019 MVP before even taking the field.

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1 hour ago, kdko said:

 

Just because AP had a great year, doesn't mean that Guice would have.  AP might be 33 years old, but he actually knows what it takes to be successful in the NFL and has competed at the highest level for many years.  Who knows if Guice would have made all the right cuts, plays, etc.  Dude doesn't seem to have his head on straight given the off the field drama before the draft and announcing he's gonna be the 2019 MVP before even taking the field.

Lol talk about lazy, narrative based opining. If you follow this guy closely instead of parroting the useless, regurgitated poop the media releases then you’d see Guice was LOVED in Baton Rouge,  and not just by the fans. He is LOVED in DC for the same reasons. His community involvement is incredible. Or maybe watch the video someone caught on their cell phone of him giving a complete stranger a $100 bill to go get themselves a coat at a gas station. Or his work at the children’s hospital. Or his numerous charity affiliations. I can’t stand when people blindly follow fake news because they don’t have the time to see for themselves. Turns out there was very little to no fire behind his character “smoke” when the dust settled after the draft. Read up on his quotes and you’ll see he uses those inflammatory reports that caused him to fall in the draft as fuel to be elite in the NFL. He might be a mistake prone kid but he’s not a thug or addict. I’ve got no agenda nor do I have any personal investment in Guice but I have spent quite a bit of time studying him for dynasty purposes to make sure he isn’t a dirtbag that could follow the Gordon route. He is not. 

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