Joe Odam

Derrius Guice 2019 Outlook

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9 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Any ADP of Guice is pure guesswork. Pure hype, even.

 

Putting him over Henry, Carson, Chubb or Lindsay, with zero evidence? I don't see it, but that's just me, maybe.

was just reporting the current data (based on 360+ mock drafts for what that's worth). I don't have a firm idea on where he should go. If he's THE guy in Wash by the preseason, then based on God given talent alone I've got zero issue with his current 3rd/4th round ADP

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44 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

was just reporting the current data (based on 360+ mock drafts for what that's worth).

Yes yes, I wasn't accusing you, I was just being mr grumpy :) 4th round seems absolutely reasonable, especially in standard. In ppr formats I'm less interested.

 

Question for the fans: in College he wasn't used a lot in the passing game, which I think will limit his upside in the modern NFL - the top-5 backs are all dual threats and pure rushers like Mixon, Lindsay, Henry, Carson will struggle to get there.

 

So the question is: was Guice not used much as a receiver because they were a run-first team (without a great QB), or because he isn't a great receiver? Honest question, I have no idea, and I'm curious how Washington will use him.

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5 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yes yes, I wasn't accusing you, I was just being mr grumpy :) 4th round seems absolutely reasonable, especially in standard. In ppr formats I'm less interested.

 

Question for the fans: in College he wasn't used a lot in the passing game, which I think will limit his upside in the modern NFL - the top-5 backs are all dual threats and pure rushers like Mixon, Lindsay, Henry, Carson will struggle to get there.

 

So the question is: was Guice not used much as a receiver because they were a run-first team (without a great QB), or because he isn't a great receiver? Honest question, I have no idea, and I'm curious how Washington will use him.

 

As an LSU fan, he was under-utilized in the passing game. Miles was stubborn and rarely used RBs and TEs in the passing game. Then as a junior, Guice had nagging injuries and the gimicky Matt Canada offense. For whatever frustrating reason, LSU has, for years, not used its RBs in the passing game enough. It’s part coaching and part lackluster QB play and part we-can’t-run-an-RB-screen-to-save-our-lives. And we’ve had RBs like Guice and Fournette who both flashed very good hands. 

 

I don’t know that he’s a 250-carry, 75-catch back, but I do believe he’s fully capable of producing ~50 catches and not be a zero in that category. 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Yes yes, I wasn't accusing you, I was just being mr grumpy :) 4th round seems absolutely reasonable, especially in standard. In ppr formats I'm less interested.

 

Question for the fans: in College he wasn't used a lot in the passing game, which I think will limit his upside in the modern NFL - the top-5 backs are all dual threats and pure rushers like Mixon, Lindsay, Henry, Carson will struggle to get there.

 

So the question is: was Guice not used much as a receiver because they were a run-first team (without a great QB), or because he isn't a great receiver? Honest question, I have no idea, and I'm curious how Washington will use him.

haha no worries! Here's a link with some awesome facts(100 of them to be exact)  including several regarding his hands. I had ZERO clue how many records this dude actually has on his resume while in 4Net's shadow. 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/6/21/17485386/skins-stats-the-100-stat-salute-to-derrius-guice

 

 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

So the question is: was Guice not used much as a receiver because they were a run-first team (without a great QB), or because he isn't a great receiver? Honest question, I have no idea, and I'm curious how Washington will use him.

 

Purely system at LSU. Guice showed really well at the combine and in training camp/preseason last year.

 

Underrated hands.

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

As an LSU fan, he was under-utilized in the passing game. Miles was stubborn and rarely used RBs and TEs in the passing game. Then as a junior, Guice had nagging injuries and the gimicky Matt Canada offense. For whatever frustrating reason, LSU has, for years, not used its RBs in the passing game enough. It’s part coaching and part lackluster QB play and part we-can’t-run-an-RB-screen-to-save-our-lives. And we’ve had RBs like Guice and Fournette who both flashed very good hands. 

 

I don’t know that he’s a 250-carry, 75-catch back, but I do believe he’s fully capable of producing ~50 catches and not be a zero in that category. 

If you think about it, its shouldnt be that hard to catch a screen or a short pass. Even you or I could catch those, its the hit afterwords that would send me flying lol

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

If you think about it, its shouldnt be that hard to catch a screen or a short pass. Even you or I could catch those, its the hit afterwords that would send me flying lol

 

It's not. But it rarely has anything do with RB's hands. It's the QB freaking out and throwing the ball high or in the dirt...the RB not getting to the right spot...the OL not keeping the front 7 off the RB so he can make the catch...the OL not keeping the front 7 off the RB so when he does make the catch, he gets dropped for a 5yd loss. We LSU fans have fussed for years about our lack of ability to run a RB screen...or to get the ball to the RBs in the pass game, in general. It is SO freaking frustrating, and we hold out hope with every new OC that we'll finally get our RBs involved in the pass game...but no. 

 

Fournette showed good hands. Guice showed good hands. And both were fast and athletic enough to be utilized more often than they were. It's criminal, really. Lol. Aside from the terrible screen game, our QBs have never seemed to know how to go through progressions and swing the ball out to a RB in the flat...or dump the ball over the middle. Nor do we even have many designed pass plays to RBs. And when you've had a stretch of RBs that include Stevan Ridley, Joe Addai, Jeremy Hill, Leonard Fournette, and Derrius Guice, you'd think a priority would be made to get these guys the ball in the pass game as well as the run game. 

 

All this to say, I would not judge Guice's hands or his effectiveness as a receiver on the numbers he put up at LSU. It simply has been the product of flawed systems and poor QB play.  

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

If you think about it, its shouldnt be that hard to catch a screen or a short pass. Even you or I could catch those, its the hit afterwords that would send me flying lol

giphy.webp

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About his pass catching in college - he had 18 catches his final year. The leading WR at LSU only had 40, the 2nd leading WR 24. So it was a product of a a very low volume passing attack.

 

And the year before, 2016, when Guice and Fournette shared the backfield, here were their numbers:

 

Fournette - 129 for 843, 6.5 YPC, 8TD. 15 Rec for 146, 9.7 YPR, 0TD.

 

Guice - 183 for 1387, 7.6 YPC, 15TD. 9 Rec for 106, 11.8 YPR, 1TD. 

 

Guice was clearly the better runner when you you watched them in college. They used Fournette more on 3rd down hence a few more catches. But neither saw significant passing targets. The most receptions for WRs that year were 41 followed by 28. D’oh! 

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12 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

haha no worries! Here's a link with some awesome facts(100 of them to be exact)  including several regarding his hands. I had ZERO clue how many records this dude actually has on his resume while in 4Net's shadow. 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/6/21/17485386/skins-stats-the-100-stat-salute-to-derrius-guice

I finally found time to go through all of them. Some are a bit iffy, but this I really liked:

Quote

46. Since 2000, there have only been 15 other power-conference running backs that have gained 250-plus yards in multiple games. Here are 10 of those 15: Melvin Gordon (4), Larry Johnson (3), D’Onta Foreman (3), Dalvin Cook (2), Darren Sproles (2), Jonathan Stewart (2), Bryce Love (2), Reggie Bush (2), Michael Bennett (2) and Le’Veon Bell (2). Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Kareem Hunt and Ladainian Tomlinson also accomplished this feat, albeit at smaller schools.

That's a pretty good list to be part of.

Of course, now that he is in the NFL it all counts for exactly diddly squat, but I do understand now why the fans are so hyped about him.

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basically 9 months from now when the season starts he will most definitely be 100% barring any setbacks. ALLLLL ABOARDDDDD

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34 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

basically 9 months from now when the season starts he will most definitely be 100% barring any setbacks. ALLLLL ABOARDDDDD

I’m all aboard. Own him on every dynasty squad I have. What round do you think he goes in redraft?

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6 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

I’m all aboard. Own him on every dynasty squad I have. What round do you think he goes in redraft?

What would it take to get him in dynasty?

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21 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

What would it take to get him in dynasty?

Depends on team needs. I think he is undervalued, and if I wanted to deal him I’d want a 2019 and 2020 1st round pick. RB wise if I didn’t get Chubb, Cook, or KJ type player I just wouldn’t consider dealing Guice. He would be at the top of the tier below those guys but I wouldn’t want to trade him for anyone else in his tier. But I wouldn’t hate anybody that wanted to trade him for Fournette, DJ, or Bell. 

 

My Tiers

1

Barkley, Gurley, CMC, Zeke, Kamara.

2

Gordon, Mixon, Chubb, Cook, KJ, Conner

3

Guice, Fournette, DJ, Bell, Michel, A Jones, Lindsay

 

 

Only 4 21 year old backs. Barkley, KJ, Guice, and RoJo. 

Edited by elroypedro
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1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

I’m all aboard. Own him on every dynasty squad I have. What round do you think he goes in redraft?

currently his ADP is mid 3rd in standard and mid 4th in PPR. I believe that will be the lowest we see him before draft time in August

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10 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

What would it take to get him in dynasty?

Well, considering he was generally the 2nd player taken in rookie drafts last year, I'm guessing that it would take a fairly high first round pick to get him. During the season, when owners needed production, he may have been cheaper (I was able to trade A. Collins and a late 2nd for him) but now that it's the offseason, I'm sure owners value him pretty close to the same place they drafted him. 

Edited by wonderbread

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I'm curious if anyone has the numbers, but how often do RB's that don't catch the ball much end up catching the ball in the NFL? We always hear excuses like it wasn't part of the scheme in college and he has good hands but didn't get a chance to show them, but then a lot of these RB's never ending up catching many balls in the NFL.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

I'm curious if anyone has the numbers, but how often do RB's that don't catch the ball much end up catching the ball in the NFL? We always hear excuses like it wasn't part of the scheme in college and he has good hands but didn't get a chance to show them, but then a lot of these RB's never ending up catching many balls in the NFL.

 

I don't know, and I can't say whether or not Guice will ever be a good receiver in the NFL. What I can say as a life-long LSU fan is...LSU rarely throws to RBs, no matter how good or bad their hands are. It's been a point of frustration among fans.

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On 1/15/2019 at 9:36 AM, Joe Odam said:

 

The hardest part is always going to be planting that foot and going in the other direction.

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6 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The hardest part is always going to be planting that foot and going in the other direction.

agree. He's got so much more time to rehab though. You really couldn't ask for a more ideal situation for the upcoming season given the circumstances 

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Guice's injury, although terrible, happened at a time where it's afforded him the opportunity to rehab over the course of an extended period of time. He'll be in great shape come training camp. I love the narrative surrounding this kid with his rough childhood upbringing, draft day drama and rookie preseason injury.  He's an excellent role model, active in his community,  and he's more motivated than ever. Guice is a star.

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1 hour ago, Mr2Saint said:

Guice's injury, although terrible, happened at a time where it's afforded him the opportunity to rehab over the course of an extended period of time. He'll be in great shape come training camp. I love the narrative surrounding this kid with his rough childhood upbringing, draft day drama and rookie preseason injury.  He's an excellent role model, active in his community,  and he's more motivated than ever. Guice is a star.

 

Not yet he's not.

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Not sure how his value will be if they don't have a quarterback yet. They also, have a tougher 2019 schedule against run defenses, but as we all know defenses can change year to year.

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