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munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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Elite RB on an up and coming team that looks like it is finally making the right moves in terms of personnel and coaching. It will be interesting who gets the HC position for the Browns as I'm sure it'll be an offensive minded coach to help develop Baker. 

 

Top 5 or so fantasy RB for 2019 with legitimate upside to lead the league in rushing. He'll probably be drafted as early as the late 1st round but shouldn't go later than the early to mid 2nd. 

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Of all the running backs who newly ascended to starting roles, he's by far my favorite.   They need Kitchens to stay put, and there's full reason to trust the Cleveland offense next year (boy that felt weird, but not wrong).      He kept Duke Johnson as a bit part, scored TD's, and while he didnt catch a lot of balls, I recall some highlight plays there.   He's a back that can make things happen, and his team should be competitive.  

 

 

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7 hours ago, munde53 said:

Elite RB on an up and coming team that looks like it is finally making the right moves in terms of personnel and coaching. It will be interesting who gets the HC position for the Browns as I'm sure it'll be an offensive minded coach to help develop Baker. 

 

Top 5 or so fantasy RB for 2019 with legitimate upside to lead the league in rushing. He'll probably be drafted as early as the late 1st round but shouldn't go later than the early to mid 2nd. 

 

I like Chubb headed into 2019 as well. I have him just outside of the Top 10 RB's right now, but that is subject to change as the offseason progresses (I could see myself moving him ahead of a few guys on my list). The guys I have ahead of him at the moment are: Saquon, Gurley, Zeke, CMC, Kamara, Gordon, D.Johnson, Conner, A.Jones, L.Bell, and then Chubb (Bell being the biggest wild card, based on where he ends up). And then I have Hunt right behind Chubb (in the event that Hunt somehow ends up on a new team without any suspension during 2019). 

 

One interesting thing I noted about Chubb, when researching Saquon, is that Chubb was tied for second place in the NFL in 20+ yard runs (11) and in sole possession of second place in 40+ yard runs (4). All despite having significantly less rushes than other RB's up near the top of the leaderboard. 

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3 hours ago, Corleone said:

Saquon, Gurley, Zeke, CMC, Kamara, Gordon, D.Johnson, Conner, A.Jones, L.Bell,

 

is this in order? I guess PPR.

 

Big think for ranking Chubb for me is what moves the browns will make in the offseason. They got a lot of ammunition in the draft.

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Just now, thebadferret said:

 

is this in order? I guess PPR.

 

Big think for ranking Chubb for me is what moves the browns will make in the offseason. They got a lot of ammunition in the draft.

 

Yup, my personal PPR order as of this early offseason stage. And agreed that offseason moves can help Chubb rise. 

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He very likely will be in the first round. I just don't see myself being able to pull the trigger that soon.

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16 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

He very likely will be in the first round. I just don't see myself being able to pull the trigger that soon.

Yeah, I agree.

 

If consensus ranks had Chubb in the first round, it'd be hard to pick him over guys like Julio and Nuk. I suspect he'll end up somewhere in the middle of the 2nd round when it's all said and done. 

 

Just curious - would you draft Chubb in the 2nd over other RB's like Mixon or Aaron Jones? 

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1 minute ago, Gfycat said:

Yeah, I agree.

 

If consensus ranks had Chubb in the first round, it'd be hard to pick him over guys like Julio and Nuk. I suspect he'll end up somewhere in the middle of the 2nd round when it's all said and done. 

 

Just curious - would you draft Chubb in the 2nd over other RB's like Mixon or Aaron Jones? 

A lot is TBD with those 3 until we see what happens coaching wise. If Jackson is Bengals coach I’m not touching Mixon with a 10 foot pole. 

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RBs i would prefer before him: Gurley, Zeke, Saquon, CMC, MGIII, Kamara, Conner, DJ. 

 

WRs i prefer before him: Nuk, Davante, 'Reek

 

that puts him at roughly #12 overall, imo.  definite back end o'the first rd for me if i'm there. 

 

i love that Cleveland offense, and this kid is set up for a super sophomore gig. 

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3 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

RBs i would prefer before him: Gurley, Zeke, Saquon, CMC, MGIII, Kamara, Conner, DJ. 

 

WRs i prefer before him: Nuk, Davante, 'Reek

 

that puts him at roughly #12 overall, imo.  definite back end o'the first rd for me if i'm there. 

 

i love that Cleveland offense, and this kid is set up for a super sophomore gig. 

 

Agree with all the above players listed... currently on the fence with keeping DJ over Chubb but obviously the off season hires are going to sway me either way.

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Its 2019 guys! Time to talk about Chubbo 2019

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14 hours ago, BrianM said:

Of all the running backs who newly ascended to starting roles, he's by far my favorite.   They need Kitchens to stay put, and there's full reason to trust the Cleveland offense next year (boy that felt weird, but not wrong).      He kept Duke Johnson as a bit part, scored TD's, and while he didnt catch a lot of balls, I recall some highlight plays there.   He's a back that can make things happen, and his team should be competitive.  

 

 

 

i suggest you guys look at the snap count the last few weeks of the season. Duke re-emerged and actually outsnapped Chubb in week 17. Duke was a large part (along with Baker throwing in short yardage) of the reason Chubb wasn't a fantasy playoff monster

 

I predict Duke Johnson is the most hated player in the league for Chubb owners next year if the coaching staff stays the same

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Aaron Jones in the same sentence is a little surprising. Hes more an upside back with the likes of K. Johnson and such. Chubb is definitely an intriguing second rd pick for now. Reminds me of the CMC hype last year and will most likely creep up there into the first too. Combine Hyde's production with Chubbs and you get monster. Ill buy.

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10 hours ago, FritzLn said:

 

i suggest you guys look at the snap count the last few weeks of the season. Duke re-emerged and actually outsnapped Chubb in week 17. Duke was a large part (along with Baker throwing in short yardage) of the reason Chubb wasn't a fantasy playoff monster

 

I predict Duke Johnson is the most hated player in the league for Chubb owners next year if the coaching staff stays the same

 

His touch rate was low-  about 6 touches per game over the last four weeks, and only in the Cincy game (6 catches for 54 yards) did Duke appear to really have an impact, which I'm guessing was a matchup thing.     

 

Of course, if he's out there without getting touches, each of those snaps naturally is one less chance for Chubb, so you are onto something.    What i'm hoping is that Cleveland is a true playoff contender from the start- the kind of team that beats bad teams badly, making Chubb a great play knowing he'll have 4th quarter leads to pad/protect.   

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If you can steal his as your RB2 - he has some of the highest upside of any RB in the league that isn't being ranked in the top 5. 

 

What I love about this kid is his insane big play potential so he can really win you some weeks which is a huge boost to anyone's RB stable.  Typically outside of my RB1s, the other dudes get you at best 10-15 points but Chubb has shown he can pop off even a 40 point game.  That's an amazing ceiling for a second year RB that is still improving on a young team.  

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Feelings on the Browns retaining Kitchens as the HC, and Freddie bringing in Todd Monken as the OC? 

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4 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Feelings on the Browns retaining Kitchens as the HC, and Freddie bringing in Todd Monken as the OC? 

Chubb averaged over 20 touches per game while Kitchens was the OC.

 

Monken is irrelevant for the most part since Kitchens will be calling plays. 

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7 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

"Feelings on the Browns retaining Kitchens as the HC, and Freddie bringing in Todd Monken as the OC?" 

 

You have the continuity of what worked, which is a system (spread/air raid) that Mayfield is familiar with. Monken adds another layer as he ran a very similar offense to what Mayfield did at OU. A lot of like-mindedness in that QB room. That's gotta be a good thing. The Bengals, even the Steelers, I don't know. I think it's either the Ravens or the Browns that come out of that division. 

 

But the pass-happy mentality, is Nick Chubb a fit? You look into perhaps the Wildcat, how did it ascend all the way to the NFL? Because it wasn't running the football in a more traditional sense, rather a complete break. Look into the air raid or spread concepts and it's often the opposite, it's all about attacking the defense through the air. What will be their level of commitment to effectively run the ball? Working in Chubb's favor is that he's more apt to see a looser box & or, a lighter one.     

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I don't see much difference between Zeke Elliott and Nick Chubb for this upcoming year.  Both guys should be near the top of the league in rushing attempts, both are beasts between the tackles, breaking tackles, with homerun speed and big TD upside.  No play is more exciting than a long, tackle-breaking run, and that's all these guys do.  Both are better in standard, but they get looks in the passing game.  And to be honest, if Cleveland can add one good WR, their offense could be markedly better than Dallas.  Zeke will probably get more receptions, and I've got them in different tiers, but I think they're gonna wind up closer than their ADPs would indicate.

 

Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Nick Chubb...  I think they're all in the same tier as rock solid RB1s that you can get mid/late 1st round.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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13 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Nick Chubb.

Wow, that's quite a big statement. I consider these four clearly distinct tiers:
Kamara: proved himself for 2 years, absolute top-5. Top without questions, so clear tier 1

Gordon: great if he stays healthy. Has missed major games in December 3/4 years. Top with a question, so tier 2

James Conner: did great for a number of months. May be able to do it again, but Pittsburgh may also switch to a different back. Could be top, so tier 3

Nick Chubb: had a good second half of the season, with 4 100+ yard weeks. Team in state of flux, but things could be looking up. Could be top with major question marks, so tier 4.

No?

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59 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Wow, that's quite a big statement. I consider these four clearly distinct tiers:
Kamara: proved himself for 2 years, absolute top-5. Top without questions, so clear tier 1

Gordon: great if he stays healthy. Has missed major games in December 3/4 years. Top with a question, so tier 2

James Conner: did great for a number of months. May be able to do it again, but Pittsburgh may also switch to a different back. Could be top, so tier 3

Nick Chubb: had a good second half of the season, with 4 100+ yard weeks. Team in state of flux, but things could be looking up. Could be top with major question marks, so tier 4.

No?

 

You have you're sure top 5 guys in Gurley, Barkley, CMC, Kamara and Zeke (not in order)

Then you got Gordon and Chubb in a league of their own and from then on you again got a cluster of RBs you could argue abour order (Conner, Mixon, Bell, DJ, Cook maybe even Jones)  

 

tldr.: Chubb > Conner in 2019

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Wow, that's quite a big statement. I consider these four clearly distinct tiers:
Kamara: proved himself for 2 years, absolute top-5. Top without questions, so clear tier 1

Gordon: great if he stays healthy. Has missed major games in December 3/4 years. Top with a question, so tier 2

James Conner: did great for a number of months. May be able to do it again, but Pittsburgh may also switch to a different back. Could be top, so tier 3

Nick Chubb: had a good second half of the season, with 4 100+ yard weeks. Team in state of flux, but things could be looking up. Could be top with major question marks, so tier 4.

No?

 

> Kamara gets less volume than any of them.  High quality volume, but volume matters.  We'll see if Ingram's back or not, though.  He stole plenty goal line.

> Conner was a top 3 RB until hurt, but I think he's down a little bit into a 2nd tier of backs as Pittsburgh becomes pass-first.  Still, Steelers RB1 is gonna be a stud.

> Gordon I have at the top of this tier due to total volume, and could be in a tier with Gurley/Barkley/Zeke if he didn't seem to get hurt all the time when it mattered most.

> I think you could make an argument for any of these guys in any order.  So I've got them in a tier.  Not right or wrong, just my take.  I probably draft them in the order you have listed, too (swap Chubb and Conner), but that doesn't put them in different tiers.

 

I'm simply higher on Chubb than most.  I think that offense runs through him, and he will get as much volume as any RB sans Saquon/Zeke/Gurley.  He's as good a runner as there is in the league.  He's in an ascending offense.  If you look at what he was doing down the stretch, it was 18+ carries, 100+ yards, and/or a TD every single week.  More involved in the passing game as things went on, too.

 

As I finish typing this, I go and look back.  From Week 7 onward, standard output: 14, 8, 15, 33, 25, 13, 14, 10, 12, 2.  The 2 at Baltimore Week 17 stands out, but all those other backs I listed also had a dud or two.  Otherwise, that is the floor and ceiling of a stud RB1. 

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

> Kamara gets less volume than any of them.  High quality volume, but volume matters.  We'll see if Ingram's back or not, though.  He stole plenty goal line.

> Conner was a top 3 RB until hurt, but I think he's down a little bit into a 2nd tier of backs as Pittsburgh becomes pass-first.  Still, Steelers RB1 is gonna be a stud.

> Gordon I have at the top of this tier due to total volume, and could be in a tier with Gurley/Barkley/Zeke if he didn't seem to get hurt all the time when it mattered most.

> I think you could make an argument for any of these guys in any order.  So I've got them in a tier.  Not right or wrong, just my take.  I probably draft them in the order you have listed, too (swap Chubb and Conner), but that doesn't put them in different tiers.

 

I'm simply higher on Chubb than most.  I think that offense runs through him, and he will get as much volume as any RB sans Saquon/Zeke/Gurley.  He's as good a runner as there is in the league.  He's in an ascending offense.  If you look at what he was doing down the stretch, it was 18+ carries, 100+ yards, and/or a TD every single week.  More involved in the passing game as things went on, too.

 

As I finish typing this, I go and look back.  From Week 7 onward, standard output: 14, 8, 15, 33, 25, 13, 14, 10, 12, 2.  The 2 at Baltimore Week 17 stands out, but all those other backs I listed also had a dud or two.  Otherwise, that is the floor and ceiling of a stud RB1. 

Here is the difference between an elite RB1 and Nick Chubb through both of their best stretches of last season...

.5ppr output weeks 7-16, excluding week 11 as that was Chubb’s bye:

 

Chubb

14, 8.5, 15.5, 34.3, 26.3, 14.7, 16.3, 10, 12.5 - 152.1 total (16.9ppg)

 

McCaffery

11, 19.6, 30.2, 34.3, 41.2, 26.6, 25.1, 22, 23.8 - 251.8 total (28.0ppg)

 

The elite RB1s average over 20ppg on the season. If Chubb carries on with the same average he had during his best stretch last season he will be a low end RB1/high end RB2. Great, but...

Obviously he will need a big jump up to join the true RB1s that can be relied upon to very likely be in that 20ppg area(Gurley, Barkley, Zeke, CMC, Kamara, Gordon), and he will need to improve at least somewhat to be in the pack with the other RB1 candidates that we know have the ability to be up there in that 20ppg range(Bell, DJ, Conner, Fournette).

To me, he is more in the tier of guys that have shown the ability and spark to be moving towards those final coveted RB1 spots but have to prove it next year(Mixon, Chubb, Cook, KC RB, Jones, maybe KJ).

Last tier of possible RB1s are the surprise guys and rookies, and we know who they were in 2018(Lindsay, White, late in the year Henry and Carson), but there will be 1 or 2 this next year, as always, that push their way ahead of the above tiers to join the RB1s for a year(like Ingram, Hunt, Hyde, Lewis in 2017).

Feel free to add Guice in somewhere here. I’m sure I missed someone else

Edited by elroypedro
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Chubb will only be needed to be a rb1 on a ff team that drafted an elite wr ahead of him, that team will be fine.

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On 1/3/2019 at 2:42 PM, Gohawks said:

He very likely will be in the first round. I just don't see myself being able to pull the trigger that soon.

 

Reconsider

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