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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, RotoStreetJournal said:

 

I am also completely fascinated by what this Kitchens / Monken marriage will bring. We know Kitchens can squeeze the best of Baker, we know Monken's Air Raid creates aerial bomb shows with the Bucs leading the league in passing yardage (320.3 per game) despite erratic Winston and bleh Fitzpatrick under center. This guy is going to be a Top-6, minimum, QB in 2019 and my pick for this year's version of Mahomes.

This is a Chubb thread, however... and who the hell knows what the RBs will do. On the plus and obvious side, a more explosive pass game will keep boxes lighter --  last season, Chubb ran the ball into 8-man boxes a league-leading 30 percent of the time. On the contrary, the Bucs ran into 8-man boxes less than 20 percent of the time. Of course, the teams are built completely differently, but the verticality Monken brings will undoubtedly help. I have no doubt all RBs here are in better hands now.

BUT Fantasy-wise, "Usage" then becomes the major point of contention. Will it be a committee with all backs there? Will one take over, considering Kitchens' Arians-roots? Chubb could become a screaming bargain if so, but I still am leaning the 100+ ADP value of Hunt and stashing, and using my second rounder on something with more sure volume. If he starts falling to mid-to-late Round 3, however...

I'm guessing he will be a bigger bargain in auctions, I do not expect him to slip out of the 2nd rd in a snake draft.

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On 3/5/2019 at 1:41 PM, dashoe said:

If they trade Duke+ Hunt  is suspended for half the season, there is no one Dorsey will add in FA who will take an touches away from Chubb so he may be worth a late 2nd rd early 3rd pick gamble  and between weeks 1-8 you scoop the next waiver wire rb stud to your team to mitigate any Hunt risk come playoff time.

There is always an early season rb on the waiver weeks  who will make the difference and another from nowhere come playoffs who carries your team to the title

i like the thinking, butt thats alot of ifs ands and butts

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On 3/8/2019 at 9:26 PM, BMcP said:

Yep - I think, as @dashoe has oft mentioned, we are going to see a full-blown shift offensively from a Haley scheme with certain Kitchensian concepts grafted on to a new Kitchens/Monken scheme incorporating plenty of Air Raid concepts.  So projecting usage based on what happened last year may be something of a fool’s errand.  

I think between Kitchens’s inclination to use his RBs in creative and unorthodox ways, coupled with Monken’s focus on getting as many playmakers onto the field simultaneously as often as possible, it’s fair to expect the RBs to line up in a whole host of formations, including out wide more often than average.

and everyone is so worried that hunt is going to take over as the lead rb and hurt chubb....i still see chubb as the "rb" in this offense and hunt more as a alvin kamara type role used more in the quick pass, open field, flooding the defensive middle, type of guy. plus he can run the ball pretty damn well in his own right. so why wouldnt they try to get both these guys on the field together as much as possible?

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On 3/9/2019 at 8:03 AM, dashoe said:

To assume Duke will be irrelevant on this offense if he stays and that Hunt won't be relevant if his suspension is silly.

if your weakness is wr? then think about what could be if your create your strength across the middle with mismatches out of the backfield. NE did this concept a few years back with gronk/hernandez and rbs out of the backfield. so in cleveland you got chubb as your rb-hunt and duke out of the backfield or both playing more of a slot role. you have njoku the te and you have landry the true slot wr.....then you tell callaway to run as fast as he can straight ahead every time the ball is snapped. even he can handle that. now that presents mismatch problems. you get as many as these guys on the field at the same time as you can.....belicheck would thats why he wins?

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Hunt gets 8 games, per Schefter.       Do Chubb fans even worry about a guy usurping touches if he's out for the first half of the season?  Personally, I think I do, only because it could absolutely chip away at the value of a back you have to draft early come playoff time.   I'd almost rather Hunt be suspended for the back half of the season.    

 

 

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31 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Hunt gets 8 games, per Schefter.       Do Chubb fans even worry about a guy usurping touches if he's out for the first half of the season?  Personally, I think I do, only because it could absolutely chip away at the value of a back you have to draft early come playoff time.   I'd almost rather Hunt be suspended for the back half of the season.    

 

 

 

I think the news today helps Chubb's value. I was expecting 6 games or less for 2019 because he already served 5 games in 2018. Hunt will not be returning in week 9 and splitting carries, they will have to slowly work him back in to game shape. So I would say you have at least 10 weeks of high Chubb usage. Obviously, splitting carries during playoff time is not ideal but we can not say 100% that Hunt will split carries, especially after not playing for basically 12 months.

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11 minutes ago, FISH20 said:

 

I think the news today helps Chubb's value. I was expecting 6 games or less for 2019 because he already served 5 games in 2018. Hunt will not be returning in week 9 and splitting carries, they will have to slowly work him back in to game shape. So I would say you have at least 10 weeks of high Chubb usage. Obviously, splitting carries during playoff time is not ideal but we can not say 100% that Hunt will split carries, especially after not playing for basically 12 months.

 

We truly don't know how things will shake out come week 9 (or 10, if their bye is early).   There's two angles here-  can you commit to Chubb knowing it'll cost a high pick, and you may have him in a committee to close the year?   Part of me says hell no.   Another part says to worry about week 10 later.   All sorts of things can happen before then, you might hit on the next Phillip Lindsay or something and not even have to worry.  

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Just now, BrianM said:

 

We truly don't know how things will shake out come week 9 (or 10, if their bye is early).   There's two angles here-  can you commit to Chubb knowing it'll cost a high pick, and you may have him in a committee to close the year?   Part of me says hell no.   Another part says to worry about week 10 later.   All sorts of things can happen before then, you might hit on the next Phillip Lindsay or something and not even have to worry.  

 

I forgot about the bye week. So Hunt is likely out the first 9 weeks then (depending on the bye week). I can 100% guarantee he will not get close to a full work load in week 10 as they work him back in. IMO Chubb can be viewed as a RB1 for the first 10-11 weeks. And after Hunt comes back we don't even know how he will be used but it's likely they are splitting carries during fantasy playoffs. After 20 years of playing fantasy football, I've learned to not worry about the playoffs when you are drafting... so many things will change throughout the year. So I will not be knocking Chubb too much after hearing it's 8 games for Hunt.

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55 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Hunt gets 8 games, per Schefter.       Do Chubb fans even worry about a guy usurping touches if he's out for the first half of the season?  Personally, I think I do, only because it could absolutely chip away at the value of a back you have to draft early come playoff time.   I'd almost rather Hunt be suspended for the back half of the season.    

 

 

 

Reg season this boosts chubb value, come fantasy playoffs who knows what happens

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

We truly don't know how things will shake out come week 9 (or 10, if their bye is early).   There's two angles here-  can you commit to Chubb knowing it'll cost a high pick, and you may have him in a committee to close the year?   Part of me says hell no.   Another part says to worry about week 10 later.   All sorts of things can happen before then, you might hit on the next Phillip Lindsay or something and not even have to worry.  

 

 the return game is dependent up eligibility, meaning reporting to facility, admitted to practice etc, etc. that process can take a couple of weeks. He may not touch the field until week 13

Edited by dashoe

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 the return game is dependent up eligibility, meaning reporting to facility, admitted to practice etc, etc. that process can take a couple of weeks. He may not touch the field until week 13

13? I bet Hunt sees the field week 9

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On 3/15/2019 at 12:44 PM, bhawks489 said:

13? I bet Hunt sees the field week 9

 

Ya, 10 would be absolute latest I'd think.

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https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-impact-of-kareem-hunts-8-game-suspension

With that said, Chubb will enter the season as the clear-cut lead back and should see a healthy workload for the first two months of the season. He’s still worth considering as a top-15 fantasy running back, but it’s important to keep in mind that his value will likely decline down the stretch. In some ways, this situation is similar to New Orleans last season. With Mark Ingramsuspended for the first four weeks of the season, Alvin Kamara was the No. 1 fantasy running back. After Ingram returned, Kamara’s production dipped. To be fair, he was still a top-five option. But the point is that we need to account for a dip in Chubb’s numbers, even if it isn’t a significant dip.

As for Hunt, we essentially have to view him as an upside option with RB2-plus capability when he returns. Although it’s rare for teams to be able to sustain RB2-or-better production for two running backs, it isn’t out of the question. The aforementioned Saints did so in 2017 when both Kamara and Ingram finished as RB1s. But as I mentioned above, drafting Hunt will really depend on whether or not you have room to do so. Even if you’re in a league with a regular amount of bench spots, Hunt will be taking up prime real estate for two months, and that’s likely to high of a cost to pay.

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9 hours ago, dashoe said:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-impact-of-kareem-hunts-8-game-suspension

With that said, Chubb will enter the season as the clear-cut lead back and should see a healthy workload for the first two months of the season. He’s still worth considering as a top-15 fantasy running back, but it’s important to keep in mind that his value will likely decline down the stretch. In some ways, this situation is similar to New Orleans last season. With Mark Ingramsuspended for the first four weeks of the season, Alvin Kamara was the No. 1 fantasy running back. After Ingram returned, Kamara’s production dipped. To be fair, he was still a top-five option. But the point is that we need to account for a dip in Chubb’s numbers, even if it isn’t a significant dip.

As for Hunt, we essentially have to view him as an upside option with RB2-plus capability when he returns. Although it’s rare for teams to be able to sustain RB2-or-better production for two running backs, it isn’t out of the question. The aforementioned Saints did so in 2017 when both Kamara and Ingram finished as RB1s. But as I mentioned above, drafting Hunt will really depend on whether or not you have room to do so. Even if you’re in a league with a regular amount of bench spots, Hunt will be taking up prime real estate for two months, and that’s likely to high of a cost to pay.

 

What is your expected ADP for Chubb? If this discounts him enough, I'll take 8 weeks of top 10ish production. A lot can happen in that time period anyhow.

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I am onboard with any kind of discount Hunt creates for Chubb.
You got to win games to get to the playoffs and Chubb will certainly win you some weeks early.
Sure his value may decline down the stretch, but it might not... no one knows.
If Chubb is balling and the Browns are winning, they aren't just going to sit him to see the new toy.

Hunt may give Chubb a breather for a game or two, which may work out well, but he won't push him out of the 1/2 down role.

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

What is your expected ADP for Chubb? If this discounts him enough, I'll take 8 weeks of top 10ish production. A lot can happen in that time period anyhow.

I posted my strategy  a couple of pages back where u take chubb wherever he falls and work the waiver in the interim looking for the next in season rb stud that comes along every year. You just can't feel confident and secure about Chubb being an rb1 going into the fantasy playoffs, with Hunts fresh legs coming online.  The Browns are not going to run their offense in anticipation of Hunt's return. They will however find ways to use Hunt to win games ONCE HE IS AVAILABLE. 

I'm not sure why people take the view that when Hunt is cleared Chubb's situation will not change  or Hunt takes over from Chubb ; it doesnt have to be all or nothing.  Worst case, hopefully it turns into a freeman/coleman or ingram/kamara type of backfield.  But to think Chubbs situation wont change is a bit naive and fanboy in my view. 

The only bet that i am willing to make is Chubbs volume will decrease come fantasy playoffs which will affect his rb1 situation . 🍀

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If this creates any sort of draft-day discount, I’m all in on that.  I’ll worry about the playoffs later.

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9 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

What is your expected ADP for Chubb? If this discounts him enough, I'll take 8 weeks of top 10ish production. A lot can happen in that time period anyhow.

 

Once again... Hunt will not be coming back week 9 and splitting carries 50/50 with Chubb. Chubb will be getting RB1 touches for atleast the first 9 games and likely more as Hunt slowly works back in to game shape after close to a year off.

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3 hours ago, FISH20 said:

 

Once again... Hunt will not be coming back week 9 and splitting carries 50/50 with Chubb. Chubb will be getting RB1 touches for atleast the first 9 games and likely more as Hunt slowly works back in to game shape after close to a year off.

 

What does that have to do with my question? You think Chubbs ADP would be exactly the same if Hunt was there or not? I don't.

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

What does that have to do with my question? You think Chubbs ADP would be exactly the same if Hunt was there or not? I don't.

 

I think 3 or 4 spots overall is about right (right around 20 overall). I dropped him lower initially thinking Hunt would get credit for time served last year. Plus the addition of OBJ will help the entire offense. The fantasy football regular season is only 13 weeks, right now Chubb is penciled in as an RB1 for the first 11 (bye week, plus 2 weeks for Hunt to get his legs under him).

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10 hours ago, FISH20 said:

 

I think 3 or 4 spots overall is about right (right around 20 overall). I dropped him lower initially thinking Hunt would get credit for time served last year. Plus the addition of OBJ will help the entire offense. The fantasy football regular season is only 13 weeks, right now Chubb is penciled in as an RB1 for the first 11 (bye week, plus 2 weeks for Hunt to get his legs under him).

 

So you agree with me. Should have just said that.

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Sounds like Chubb owners are scared of the hunt arrival week 9

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Matthew Berry isn’t for everyone, but #9 on his list sure sounds like he was convinced by somebody in the know. Obviously, this was before the 8 game suspension was announced, but based on what he was told length of suspension was irrelevant. Safe to say Berry is far more connected than any of us on this forum, so like him or not, his take on the situation is more informed than any of ours.

I’m sure some Hunt owners will blindly dismiss this and try a Berry-bashing missirection tactic, but he was clearly convined at the combine that this is Chubb’s backfield.

 

Matthew Berry: 15 things I learned at the 2019 NFL combine

 

9. There is no committee in Cleveland. Nick Chubb is the guy. Regardless of if/when Kareem Hunt is eligible to play, this is not a time-sharing situation. Nick Chubb is your guy.

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/26133969/fantasy-football-15-things-learned-2019-nfl-combine

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48 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Matthew Berry isn’t for everyone, but #9 on his list sure sounds like he was convinced by somebody in the know. Obviously, this was before the 8 game suspension was announced, but based on what he was told length of suspension was irrelevant. Safe to say Berry is far more connected than any of us on this forum, so like him or not, his take on the situation is more informed than any of ours.

I’m sure some Hunt owners will blindly dismiss this and try a Berry-bashing missirection tactic, but he was clearly convined at the combine that this is Chubb’s backfield.

 

Matthew Berry: 15 things I learned at the 2019 NFL combine

 

9. There is no committee in Cleveland. Nick Chubb is the guy. Regardless of if/when Kareem Hunt is eligible to play, this is not a time-sharing situation. Nick Chubb is your guy.

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/26133969/fantasy-football-15-things-learned-2019-nfl-combine

 

WOW!!! I seriously hope you are trolling us.. . 🤭

You literally used Berry as your supporting evidence. Berry is not known to break any news.

-Berry's tweets are not followed  for information in the same way as Scehter/Rappoport.

-Berry is not a reporter

-Berry is not an NFL insider

Are you ok dude or are you suffering from Hunt Derangement Syndrome. . .😂

1. of course it is Chubbs backfield because Hunt can't practice/play/compete but come week 9 if not traded Hunt being able to play will be a reality that the coaches will have to make decisions about

2.  I would love for anyone to say with certainty what will happen to the Browns after week even Dorsey.

Here are some other well informed comments told to the public that proved to be false:

Odell Beckham is not on the trading block said the NYG GM,  he wasnt signed to be traded. . . 🤪

Tyrod is our starting QB

We want Baker Mayfield to learn behind Tyrod this season

Duke is going to be a big part of our offense and we will use him as a wr too

Amari will be the centerpiece of our offense.

 

Personally I'm more concerned about Baker and his new aerial attack killing Chubbs production more than I am with Hunt returning after week 8.

Baker looks like a Rodgers-lite in the making who prefers to audible a run into a pass play 🤫

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