munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Go look at Mahomes stats before and after Hunt went down. This is just a bad take.

 

I did. Take a look at the schedule.

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On 3/22/2019 at 2:25 PM, Gohawks said:

Go look at Mahomes stats before and after Hunt went down. This is just a bad take.

Mahomes average was up after Hunt's last game in week 10 (weeks 11 and 13 were big games):

 

Mahomes average weeks 1-10 (6 pt pass TD): 32.58

Mahomes average weeks 1-10 (4 pt pass TD): 26.38

 

Mahomes average weeks 11-16, after Hunt was out (6 pt pass TD): 33.99

Mahomes average weeks 11-16, after Hunt was out (4 pt pass TD): 27.19

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20 hours ago, geosporin said:

Mahomes average was up after Hunt's last game in week 10 (weeks 11 and 13 were big games):

 

Mahomes average weeks 1-10 (6 pt pass TD): 32.58

Mahomes average weeks 1-10 (4 pt pass TD): 26.38

 

Mahomes average weeks 11-16, after Hunt was out (6 pt pass TD): 33.99

Mahomes average weeks 11-16, after Hunt was out (4 pt pass TD): 27.19

First off, they went 3-2 after Hunt. Second off, Mahomes had 2 under 300-yard games prior to the injury to Hunt. He had 4 after the injury. In fact, 4 out of 5 games he posted after the injury were under 300 yards. Third, and most important, your numbers are just flat out a lie. Hunt played in week 1-11. Over that span, Mahomes averaged 27.2 in standard. Compared to 23.4 without Hunt. That's a TD difference. 

On 3/22/2019 at 11:34 AM, dmb3684 said:

 

I did. Take a look at the schedule.

Alright if you insist. 

Ranking of passing defenses prior to Hunt going out:

9, 10, 11, 10, 2, 22, 32, 20, 25, 4, 14. Average = 14.5

After Hunt went out:

19, 5, 9, 17, 19 = 13.8

Ranking the defenses by points allowed prior to Hunt going out:

8, 16, 28, 13, 4, 7, 30, 13, 21, 26, 20 = 16.9

After Hunt went out:

32, 2, 8, 11, 32 = 17

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37 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

First off, they went 3-2 after Hunt. Second off, Mahomes had 2 under 300-yard games prior to the injury to Hunt. He had 4 after the injury. In fact, 4 out of 5 games he posted after the injury were under 300 yards. Third, and most important, your numbers are just flat out a lie. Hunt played in week 1-11. Over that span, Mahomes averaged 27.2 in standard. Compared to 23.4 without Hunt. That's a TD difference. 

Alright if you insist. 

Ranking of passing defenses prior to Hunt going out:

9, 10, 11, 10, 2, 22, 32, 20, 25, 4, 14. Average = 14.5

After Hunt went out:

19, 5, 9, 17, 19 = 13.8

Ranking the defenses by points allowed prior to Hunt going out:

8, 16, 28, 13, 4, 7, 30, 13, 21, 26, 20 = 16.9

After Hunt went out:

32, 2, 8, 11, 32 = 17

 

I'd have to see QB fantasy points allowed. This doesn't really prove anything, fantasy wise.

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I'd have to see QB fantasy points allowed. This doesn't really prove anything, fantasy wise.

I'm not arguing about fantasy. Fantasy isn't relevant to the discussion at hand. My initial point was Hunt is a REALLY good back and largely helped Mahomes. Thus, assuming he will be some kind of fill in backup to Chubb is foolish.

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I'm not arguing about fantasy. Fantasy isn't relevant to the discussion at hand. My initial point was Hunt is a REALLY good back and largely helped Mahomes. Thus, assuming he will be some kind of fill in backup to Chubb is foolish.

 

Oh, disagreed. I'll take Chubb over Hunt all day.

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52 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I'm not arguing about fantasy. Fantasy isn't relevant to the discussion at hand. My initial point was Hunt is a REALLY good back and largely helped Mahomes. Thus, assuming he will be some kind of fill in backup to Chubb is foolish.

Chubb looked like a really good back last season as well. To think a guy that was suspended half the season would come in and usurp Chubb's role if Chubb isn't struggling is also foolish.

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23 minutes ago, devaster said:

Chubb looked like a really good back last season as well. To think a guy that was suspended half the season would come in and usurp Chubb's role if Chubb isn't struggling is also foolish.

Teams like to keep backs fresh. Kamara was dominating and Ingram came in and still took significant touches. Chubb is no Kamara and Ingram is no Hunt. So no it’s not foolish. 

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Teams like to keep backs fresh. Kamara was dominating and Ingram came in and still took significant touches. Chubb is no Kamara and Ingram is no Hunt. So no it’s not foolish. 

 

yeah I think this is a point fantasy players tend to forget when they fall in love with their studs. REAL WORLD NFL. You have a young all pro rb in your backfield and he is healthy an NFL coach will find a way to use him. it's not  about usurping a  starter or a guy doing a great job it's using the talent to help win games.  and if Chubb is heavily used for 8-10 games it would be negligent for a HC to not figure out how to conserve him down the stretch with Hunt ready to go particularly if they are in a playoff hunt.  How many times do we see Hoodie mix and match his backfield over the course of a season and playoffs regardless of how studly any of the rb's are week to week? 🤔

 

i guarantee you mcvay wish he had CJA 3 weeks earlier than he did.  A Gurley injury killed that teams offensive capabilities down the stretch

Edited by dashoe

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16 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

yeah I think this is a point fantasy players tend to forget when they fall in love with their studs. REAL WORLD NFL. You have a young all pro rb in your backfield and he is healthy an NFL coach will find a way to use him. it's not  about usurping a  starter or a guy doing a great job it's using the talent to help win games.  and if Chubb is heavily used for 8-10 games it would be negligent for a HC to not figure out how to conserve him down the stretch with Hunt ready to go particularly if they are in a playoff hunt.  How many times do we see Hoodie mix and match his backfield over the course of a season and playoffs regardless of how studly any of the rb's are week to week? 🤔

 

i guarantee you mcvay wish he had CJA 3 weeks earlier than he did.  A Gurley injury killed that teams offensive capabilities down the stretch

Don't really think having CJA 3 weeks earlier would have made any difference. Can't predict injuries.

Keeping a RB fresh is one thing. But expecting Hunt to eat into Chubb's role significantly is another.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, devaster said:

Don't really think having CJA 3 weeks earlier would have made any difference. Can't predict injuries.

Keeping a RB fresh is one thing. But expecting Hunt to eat into Chubb's role significantly is another.

1- u cant predict injury but u can plan for it which is why teams try to add quality depth in the position given  rb fragility is very high.

Significantly".  What is "significant" in terms of fantasy?

For me what I care about is unpredictable usage week to week as I set my lineups. Which is why I don't touch NE or Detroit rb's.

In terms of the Browns it will safe to assume predictable  Chubb utilization for 8 to 10 games and then uncertainty sets end come playoffs.

So in my view Hunt can have a "significant" affect on being able to reliably predict Chubbs production once he is fully integrated into the offense

Edited by dashoe
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Are we assuming the coaches won’t say anything publicly about how they plan to integrate Hunt?  Or are we just saying it’s safe to disregard their comments for planning purposes?

Personally, I think Chubb will remain a dependable RB1 even upon Hunt’s return, even if his workload diminishes slightly.

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22 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Are we assuming the coaches won’t say anything publicly about how they plan to integrate Hunt?  Or are we just saying it’s safe to disregard their comments for planning purposes?

Personally, I think Chubb will remain a dependable RB1 even upon Hunt’s return, even if his workload diminishes slightly.

 

I think it's safe to disregard what coaches generally say because their actions on game day tells you everything you need to know.

Now if you want to trust what the HC says publicly:

“I like having fun. I don’t know why it has to feel like such drudgery all the time. Who needs more 5-yard plays? How can we be explosive? That’s what the game is about, man. People like big plays. I like big plays.” 

Hunt will be able to participate in all of training camp and preseason before his suspension takes effect. 

"If there's a silver lining in that, Kareem will get to be around his teammates up until (his suspension begins)," Kitchens said. "So for us that's crucial because we want to immerse him into the team. 

"We're not into all that kind of stuff," Kitchens said. "I don't know why it's assumed … I don't know why it's assumed that we're going to trade Duke Johnson. I don’t know why we would ever want to, like, just voluntarily give up a good football player. Duke Johnson is a good football player. Duke Johnson will have a role on our football team. All these guys that are here will have a role. I don't know when it just became a necessity to trade Duke Johnson because we signed Kareem Hunt. 

 

Now if you want to hear from the OC Monken:

“Balance is multiple skill players touching the football. To me, it is not always just run-pass (balance). It is do you have enough skill players where they can touch the football. Last year at Tampa, we almost had six guys – if (Buccaneers TE) O.J. (Howard) doesn’t get hurt – with 700-plus yards from the line of scrimmage. That to me is balance. You have a number of guys who can hurt you from a matchup standpoint. Is running the football important? Sure because in order to win, you have to be explosive and not turn the ball over. How do you become explosive? Space players and throwing it over their heads or throwing in intermediate pockets, and running the football adds to that.”

Baker Mayfield says:

When Mayfield was asked about the addition of Monken, a product of the Mike Gundy “Air Raid” offense at Oklahoma State, Mayfield cracked, “They obviously love throwing the ball. I think we’re going to have to find ways to convince him to hand the ball off to Chubb.”

 

 

--So there you go public statements from the key people HC-OC-QB. . .big explosive plays which will more likely involve a lot of passing.  Hunt came from an offensive system where he was involved in big explosive plays both as a runner and as a pass catcher and he will practice with the team until Aug 31.

PUBLICLY  the HC states ALL 3 rb's will have a role

I don't understand why people think Hunt will merely hold chubbs helmet on the sidelines in an offensive system that no one has seen yet. 

I think it's even more puzzling to think if Duke stays  he will be sitting on the sidelines in an offense where the key operators are implying will be pass heavy.

I like chubb too but this situation is filled with tons of question marks and having OBJ arguably the games best pass catching threat + top5 slot wr Landry doesnt make  it an easy calculation for rb production particularly when Duke has great hands. And those who watched Baker know he beleives he can make every throw if u give him a crack

 

I'm willing to bet volatile rb1 numbers for 8-10 weeks and then  come playoff time anybodys guess.

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I’m afraid to quote this tome, but thank you for these reports.  As I’ve mentioned previously, I think you’ll see quite a bit of Hunt, Chubb - and even Duke - on the field simultaneously in this offense.  And given Monken’s principle of wanting to maximize the number of times his playmakers touch the ball, all will be involved - including the team’s proven best playmaker at tailback - indeed the team’s only proven playmaker thus far.  Draft Chubb confidently as a RB1 and reap the reward of whatever discount you may get from the Hunt news.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

I’m afraid to quote this tome, but thank you for these reports.  As I’ve mentioned previously, I think you’ll see quite a bit of Hunt, Chubb - and even Duke - on the field simultaneously in this offense.  And given Monken’s principle of wanting to maximize the number of times his playmakers touch the ball, all will be involved - including the team’s proven best playmaker at tailback - indeed the team’s only proven playmaker thus far.  Draft Chubb confidently as a RB1 and reap the reward of whatever discount you may get from the Hunt news.

 

1. Landry would argue with that point 🤪

2. OBJ by default is now officially the Browns best playmaker 🤫

3. I could see Landry+ObJ dominate in  targets  as strong willed veterans  who get in Bakers ear to build the rapport with him, leaving very little for the rb's  🤭

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

1. Landry would argue with that point 🤪

2. OBJ by default is now officially the Browns best playmaker 🤫

3. I could see Landry+ObJ dominate in  targets  as strong willed veterans  who get in Bakers ear to build the rapport with him, leaving very little for the rb's  🤭

1.  Ha!  Check it out - i mentioned “at tailback.”  Obviously Landry is also a proven playmaker.

2.  See #1.

3. It’s possible, I guess.  The way I see it is, Kitchens/Monken aren’t going to simply air it out 60-70 times a game - their comments thus far illustrate that they understand the importance of the running game to a so-called “balanced” offense.  I feel like any reduction in overall carries will be more than counterbalanced by the increase in scoring opportunities and offensive downs played thanks to this now-supercharged offense.

 

P.S.  I’d feel a lot less sanguine if Chubb hadn’t proven how adept he was as a pass-catcher and route-runner last season.  I feel like these moves actually make him more desirable in a PPR.

Edited by BMcP

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9 hours ago, BMcP said:

1.  Ha!  Check it out - i mentioned “at tailback.”  Obviously Landry is also a proven playmaker.

2.  See #1.

 

including the team’s proven best playmaker at tailback - indeed the team’s only proven playmaker thus far.

 

👉 the bolded part where u stated Chubb as the teams . . .ONLY. . . proven playmaker

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10 hours ago, BMcP said:

 

3. It’s possible, I guess.  The way I see it is, Kitchens/Monken aren’t going to simply air it out 60-70 times a game - their comments thus far illustrate that they understand the importance of the running game to a so-called “balanced” offense.  I feel like any reduction in overall carries will be more than counterbalanced by the increase in scoring opportunities and offensive downs played thanks to this now-supercharged offense.

 

 

 

I agree. I would be surprised if they exceed 30x on average if their defense takes that expected leap forward. 

What I do expect is the rb points to be volatile week to week due to the randomness of TD's and you probably can't count on predictable targets every week because we know OBJ can literally take over the game on his own and landry is always able to find the soft spot on the defense on the short routes.  

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, dashoe said:

including the team’s proven best playmaker at tailback - indeed the team’s only proven playmaker thus far.

 

👉 the bolded part where u stated Chubb as the teams . . .ONLY. . . proven playmaker

🙄

Ok, I certainly could’ve written that sentence more precisely - forgive me, I was rushing as I had a draft about to begin.  I was hoping the context would be self-apparent to my savvy fellow forum members (viz., this was a reference solely to the tailback position), and that they would understand individuals such as Jarvis Landry and Baker Mayfield also routinely made plays for the Cleveland Browns, but I was apparently mistaken.  Mea maxima culpa...

Edited by BMcP

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I agree. I would be surprised if they exceed 30x on average if their defense takes that expected leap forward. 

What I do expect is the rb points to be volatile week to week due to the randomness of TD's and you probably can't count on predictable targets every week because we know OBJ can literally take over the game on his own and landry is always able to find the soft spot on the defense on the short routes.  

That would be quite the leap forward - I thought I was high on this revamped defense, but I’m not nearly as high as you.

I disagree - I think there will be plenty to go around for all the established playmakers, both wideouts and running backs.  There will obviously be variance week to week, that goes without saying. But volatility to the point where you can’t count on Chubb as a RB1?  I find that hard to believe.

Edited by BMcP

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His ADP is around the 13-17 range. That's absolutely absurd when you consider they have a guy that led the league in rushing just two years ago and was on pace for well over 1,000 yards again last season. In fact, you can actually even argue that Hunt is a better player than Chubb. I wouldn't take Chubb before the 3rd-4th round.

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

His ADP is around the 13-17 range. That's absolutely absurd when you consider they have a guy that led the league in rushing just two years ago and was on pace for well over 1,000 yards again last season. In fact, you can actually even argue that Hunt is a better player than Chubb. I wouldn't take Chubb before the 3rd-4th round.

It appears you are in the minority, then.

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

🙄

Ok, I certainly could’ve written that sentence more precisely - forgive me, I was rushing as I had a draft about to begin.  I was hoping the context would be self-apparent to my savvy fellow forum members (viz., this was a reference solely to the tailback position), and that they would understand individuals such as Jarvis Landry and Baker Mayfield also routinely made plays for the Cleveland Browns, but I was apparently mistaken.  Mea maxima culpa...

 

Sorry mate but you overestimate, our intelligence, ability to discern your intent and forgiveness quotient. . .😝

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7 minutes ago, BMcP said:

That would be quite the leap forward - I thought I was high on this revamped defense, but I’m not nearly as high as you.

I disagree - I think there will be plenty to go around for all the established playmakers, both wideouts and running backs.  There will obviously be variance week to week, that goes without saying. But volatility to the point where you can’t count on Chubb as a RB1?  I find that hard to believe.

 

I think but don't hold me to it a healthy Lamar miller has finished as a seasonal rb1  since he has been a Texan and he severely dissappoints on a weekly basis points wise

 

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