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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

Dude you just won't cry UNCLE and I'm not sure why this all became so complicated. . .🤣

 

You asked this question 👉Are we assuming the coaches won’t say anything publicly about how they plan to integrate Hunt?  Or are we just saying it’s safe to disregard their comments for planning purposes?

 

I responded 👉 I generally DISREGARD WHAT COACHES STATE PUBLICLY and then I provided you with public statements the HC-OC-QB made regarding the offense, Kareem Hunt, Duke Johnson, Chubb and the running game.

 

UNCLE!!! 🍺

Not a careful reader - that’s ok, you’re still a solid contributor.  But it’s good to know that reading comprehension is not the best of your traits.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, BMcP said:

Not a careful reader - that’s ok, you’re still a solid contributor.  But it’s good to know that reading comprehension is not the best of your traits.

 

Oh I'm excellent at reading comprehension, maybe it would help you if I point out that you didnt frame a proper question with your phrasing.

Using '"are we assuming. . ." essentially makes it  a rhetorical question because you are using an inclusive pronoun 'we'  instead of the singular "I" but that's what you meant to do correct?  Then of course you know once you pose a rhetorical question which is nothing more than your personal musing, the response does not have to be literal or a direct answer to that question, correct? 

Jack can talk Thai. Jack talk Thai very well.  🤫

I think you are a solid contributor too 👏

Edited by dashoe
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Oh I'm excellent at reading comprehension, maybe it would help you if I point out that you didnt frame a proper question with your phrasing.

Using '"are we assuming. . ." essentially makes it  a rhetorical question because you are using an inclusive pronoun 'we'  instead of the singular "I" but that's what you meant to do correct?  Then of course you know once you pose a rhetorical question which is nothing more than your personal musing, the response does not have to be literal or a direct answer to that question, correct? 

Jack can talk Thai. Jack talk Thai very well.  🤫

I think you are a solid contributor too 👏

I don’t know if he was being inclusive. Maybe he asked “Are we assuming....?” because you refer to yourself in the 3rd person from time to time.

Edited by psygolf

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

I don’t know if he was being inclusive. Maybe he asked “Are we assuming....?” because you refer to yourself in the 3rd person from time to time.

Good point it could have been exclusive and not a device used to connect the collective rotoworld community but it would still be a personal musing and therefore still rhetorical🤪

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Lets keep uncles out of the chubb thread...

Projections Before/After arrival of Hunt?

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16 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Oh I'm excellent at reading comprehension, maybe it would help you if I point out that you didnt frame a proper question with your phrasing.

Using '"are we assuming. . ." essentially makes it  a rhetorical question because you are using an inclusive pronoun 'we'  instead of the singular "I" but that's what you meant to do correct?  Then of course you know once you pose a rhetorical question which is nothing more than your personal musing, the response does not have to be literal or a direct answer to that question, correct? 

Jack can talk Thai. Jack talk Thai very well.  🤫

I think you are a solid contributor too 👏

I appreciate you, dashoe - you’re a good (uncle) man!

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On 3/31/2019 at 2:02 AM, bhawks489 said:

Lets keep uncles out of the chubb thread...

Projections Before/After arrival of Hunt?

First 8 to 9 weeks, I foresee Chubb, being a top 10 rb, but when the return happens, I think field position and the games may dictate. I don't see why Hunt and Chubb both couldn't be in line ups.If Chubb does suck it up, we could see Kareem become the bell cow.

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From what I've heard about the browns HC and OC roles is very similar to what the rams are doing. Kitchens is gonna have little to do with the defense and be much much more involved in the offense. This could mean that maybe he wont change his "todd haley" styled play book up very much despite having molken coming over. I mean it kinda makes sense to assume that. Ya think mcvay is changing his entire offense up because of what his new OC is saying?

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On 4/1/2019 at 9:50 AM, dontclapGonorrhea said:

First 8 to 9 weeks, I foresee Chubb, being a top 10 rb, but when the return happens, I think field position and the games may dictate. I don't see why Hunt and Chubb both couldn't be in line ups.If Chubb does suck it up, we could see Kareem become the bell cow.

 

Outside of getting hurt, don't see any reason why Chubb would 'suck it up'all of a sudden.

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19 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

From what I've heard about the browns HC and OC roles is very similar to what the rams are doing. Kitchens is gonna have little to do with the defense and be much much more involved in the offense. This could mean that maybe he wont change his "todd haley" styled play book up very much despite having molken coming over. I mean it kinda makes sense to assume that. Ya think mcvay is changing his entire offense up because of what his new OC is saying?

 

Well  it's reported Duke is asking to be traded so that goves a clue that he doesnt think he will have a significant role on whatever this offense will look like.

Asking for a trade after the rb's were signed in FA, teams have allocated a chunk of their cap and right before the NFL draft  tells me Duke learned something that says he really doesnt like his outlook on an offense that should be explosive and he is the clear number 2 for at least 8 weeks

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26 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Well  it's reported Duke is asking to be traded so that goves a clue that he doesnt think he will have a significant role on whatever this offense will look like.

Asking for a trade after the rb's were signed in FA, teams have allocated a chunk of their cap and right before the NFL draft  tells me Duke learned something that says he really doesnt like his outlook on an offense that should be explosive and he is the clear number 2 for at least 8 weeks

I wonder if the “clue” you’re referring to was all the reports that surfaced about the Browns’ shopping him.  I don’t fault him for feeling like he has more to contribute than he has for the last couple of seasons.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

I wonder if the “clue” you’re referring to was all the reports that surfaced about the Browns’ shopping him.  I don’t fault him for feeling like he has more to contribute than he has for the last couple of seasons.

browns were shopping him before FA so this was a given. There was interest in him by teams since last years trade deadline.  Dorsey never got the price he was asking for. 

Duke and his team had plenty of time to request a trade before  and during the big signings during the FA window. only today do we find out that they now want a trade to happen.

So obviously something happened last couple of weeks to make this request and for him to not show up to training today.

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On 3/31/2019 at 2:02 AM, bhawks489 said:

Lets keep uncles out of the chubb thread...

Projections Before/After arrival of Hunt?

 

Before?  Behind only Saquon and Zeke in fantasy points, I think.  They were using him in the passing game.  He's going to be the focal point of a high powered offense.  He is perhaps the best pure runner in the league.  Over 100 yards and a TD per game, I think.

 

Once Hunt returns, he's still a mid RB1 I believe, in the James Conner range.  Plenty of volume, but gives up just enough.

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I put nick chubb in a similar category of derrick henry. Started 9 games with over 900 yards on the season but had a 100 yard performance in a earlier season game with 3 Carries after that he only had three 100 yard games of his 9 starts.  Only had 20 catches all season but will moat definitely get the goal line touches. Now he has some competition after week 8. I think he was in the RB 8 or 9 range and now hes in the RB 11-12 range. Just my humble ignorant opinion

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Before?  Behind only Saquon and Zeke in fantasy points, I think.  They were using him in the passing game.  He's going to be the focal point of a high powered offense.  He is perhaps the best pure runner in the league.  Over 100 yards and a TD per game, I think.

 

 

So OBJ is not going to be the focal point of a high powered offense away from the QB.  .  .key words being "the focal point"

barkley+zeke are the focal points of their run based offenses, not sure I see chubb being in that role give that baker is a pass first guy and clearly the offense is being built around his passing ability where u cant say the same about Eli+Dak.

OBJ could easily eclipse 100yds a game and td will be what they will be

I definitely don't see Chubb being the focal point or primary weapon ahead of OBJ🤔

Edited by dashoe

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16 minutes ago, dashoe said:

So OBJ is not going to be the focal point of a high powered offense away from the QB.  .  .key words being "the focal point"

 

In my opinion, yes.  This is what turned their season around last year.  Kitchens ascended from RB coach to OC to HC.  He comes from under Bruce Arians who centered his offense in Arizona around David Johnson, and paired it with aggressive downfield passing.  I'm betting Kitchens sticks with his bread and butter -- or I guess you could call it his meat and potatoes, and now he's got an elite side dish to make the plate complete.

However you want to phrase it, Beckham and Chubb should both be studs.  Chubb will get loads of rushing volume, I believe, enough to put him close to Saquon and Zeke.  More volume than Kamara and CMC.  I'd say Chubb is close to Melvin Gordon as the RB3 overall ... before Hunt returns.  I don't think it's a drastic drop off afterwards.

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47 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

So OBJ is not going to be the focal point of a high powered offense away from the QB.  .  .key words being "the focal point"

barkley+zeke are the focal points of their run based offenses, not sure I see chubb being in that role give that baker is a pass first guy and clearly the offense is being built around his passing ability where u cant say the same about Eli+Dak.

OBJ could easily eclipse 100yds a game and td will be what they will be

I definitely don't see Chubb being the focal point or primary weapon ahead of OBJ🤔

 

27 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

In my opinion, yes.  This is what turned their season around last year.  Kitchens ascended from RB coach to OC to HC.  He comes from under Bruce Arians who centered his offense in Arizona around David Johnson, and paired it with aggressive downfield passing.  I'm betting Kitchens sticks with his bread and butter -- or I guess you could call it his meat and potatoes, and now he's got an elite side dish to make the plate complete.

However you want to phrase it, Beckham and Chubb should both be studs.  Chubb will get loads of rushing volume, I believe, enough to put him close to Saquon and Zeke.  More volume than Kamara and CMC.  I'd say Chubb is close to Melvin Gordon as the RB3 overall ... before Hunt returns.  I don't think it's a drastic drop off afterwards.

 

i find it hard to say regarding OBJ, but i lean lord varys here: OBJ will play outstanding football, but chubb will be the focal player in the playbook.

 

but also, the playcalling will be mitigated by gamescript: the browns defense is NOT where it needs to be, the o-line takes a slight hit this season, and when the run is stuffed by a good defense despite first half attempts at ball-control offense, and when the browns are playing catch-up, we'll see the baker mayfield show.

 

certainly the WR threat (and mayfield’s arm) will keep defenses legit, so i wouldn’t begrudge any owner for reaching for chubb. (is "reaching" even possible?)

 

i think one of the key questions revolves around the most talented but downplayed talent: jarvis landry. we all know what chubb can do, what OBJ can do. we’ve seen jarvis landry struggle when facing top DBs (e.g. entering fantasy playoffs last season). but now, he’s the #2 WR and top coverage goes to OBJ. with mayfield ascending, and with OBJ and chubb demanding respect, what can we expect from jarvis landry in PPR? i like his value at the current round 5 ADP and hope to see this ADP slip further. with chubb up front, obj spreading DBs, how well can landry manufacture production at midfield?

his performance is off the charts in my madden simulations

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25 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

what can we expect from jarvis landry in PPR? i like his value at the current round 5 ADP and hope to see this ADP slip further. with chubb up front, obj spreading DBs, how well can landry manufacture production at midfield?

 

I'm not expecting much.  I'm always wary of guys who burst onto the scene in large part thanks to very special circumstances, and then those circumstances change dramatically.  Engram's a good talent but broke out when all the WRs were hurt.  Freeman's a good talent but broke out because of Shanahan. Landry's a good talent but had 160 targets in Miami from Tannehill, never many TDs, or Yards per Catch, or aDOT, just volume.  You see what happens to B+ starters when their A+ situations become normal.   I'm sure Landry will be more efficient this year, but the volume will not be there for him.

ADP of 48-72 (4th-6th rounds of 12 man drafts) on draft.com bestballs right now has Landry, Godwin, Kupp, Williams, Robinson, Ridley, Boyd, Moore.  Jeffrey and Lockett are even later.  I'd take (almost) all of them over Landry just for upside.  He'll be competing with Njoku for scraps IMO.

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17 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I'm not expecting much.  I'm always wary of guys who burst onto the scene in large part thanks to very special circumstances, and then those circumstances change dramatically.  Engram's a good talent but broke out when all the WRs were hurt.  Freeman's a good talent but broke out because of Shanahan. Landry's a good talent but had 160 targets in Miami from Tannehill, never many TDs, or Yards per Catch, or aDOT, just volume.  You see what happens to B+ starters when their A+ situations become normal.   I'm sure Landry will be more efficient this year, but the volume will not be there for him.

 

This is spot on. It's basically the reverse of everyones beliefs that some superstars are put in bad positions ala todd Gurley with jeff Fischer and DJ last year or even hall of famers like randy moss in Oakland. Goes to to show ya that situation and availability might be the most important things in fantasy.

 

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1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

 

 

 

i think one of the key questions revolves around the most talented but downplayed talent: jarvis landry. we all know what chubb can do, what OBJ can do. we’ve seen jarvis landry struggle when facing top DBs (e.g. entering fantasy playoffs last season). but now, he’s the #2 WR and top coverage goes to OBJ. with mayfield ascending, and with OBJ and chubb demanding respect, what can we expect from jarvis landry in PPR? i like his value at the current round 5 ADP and hope to see this ADP slip further. with chubb up front, obj spreading DBs, how well can landry manufacture production at midfield?

his performance is off the charts in my madden simulations

 

 

I'm not bullish on landry. I dont see the volume he needs to be a ppr stud and i'm not confident he even produces as the #2 wr given Baker had better rapport with Higgins when healthy  last season. Sure landry will have a few stud games but if the Browns spread the ball around i dont see the consistent week to week volume that would make landry a solid draft piece like an Edelman would be

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Posted (edited)
On 4/2/2019 at 8:38 PM, dashoe said:

browns were shopping him before FA so this was a given. There was interest in him by teams since last years trade deadline.  Dorsey never got the price he was asking for. 

Duke and his team had plenty of time to request a trade before  and during the big signings during the FA window. only today do we find out that they now want a trade to happen.

So obviously something happened last couple of weeks to make this request and for him to not show up to training today.

So what exactly is it that you think happened?  I mean, if he thinks he’s being shipped off to a new team on any given day entering the FA period, why would he bother requesting a trade outright?  He would just assume he’s going somewhere.  I think the request was made because he hadn’t been traded yet and was afraid he wouldn’t be, ultimately. 

The point remains that he had reason to believe he wasn’t in the team’s plans.

Edited by BMcP

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13 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I'm not expecting much.  I'm always wary of guys who burst onto the scene in large part thanks to very special circumstances, and then those circumstances change dramatically.  Engram's a good talent but broke out when all the WRs were hurt.  Freeman's a good talent but broke out because of Shanahan. Landry's a good talent but had 160 targets in Miami from Tannehill, never many TDs, or Yards per Catch, or aDOT, just volume.  You see what happens to B+ starters when their A+ situations become normal.   I'm sure Landry will be more efficient this year, but the volume will not be there for him.

ADP of 48-72 (4th-6th rounds of 12 man drafts) on draft.com bestballs right now has Landry, Godwin, Kupp, Williams, Robinson, Ridley, Boyd, Moore.  Jeffrey and Lockett are even later.  I'd take (almost) all of them over Landry just for upside.  He'll be competing with Njoku for scraps IMO.

 

13 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I'm not bullish on landry. I dont see the volume he needs to be a ppr stud and i'm not confident he even produces as the #2 wr given Baker had better rapport with Higgins when healthy  last season. Sure landry will have a few stud games but if the Browns spread the ball around i dont see the consistent week to week volume that would make landry a solid draft piece like an Edelman would be

Shoe/Lord

Is his situation worse or actually better this season?

Should the coach & oc do what some are expecting, Mayfield should easily be well within the top 5 in passing attempts this year.  Plenty of targets to go around.  

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6 hours ago, psygolf said:

Is his situation worse or actually better this season?

Should the coach & oc do what some are expecting, Mayfield should easily be well within the top 5 in passing attempts this year.

 

I don't think passing attempts correlates with success.  I don't think it doesn't either.  I just don't think it's related.  Top 5 passing teams last year: Pittsburgh (good team but missed the playoffs, I'd argue because they'd pass too much.  Don't get @JHM_13 started.).  Indianapolis (OK good team).  Green Bay (awful).  Tampa (woof).  Atlanta (missed playoffs).  I'd argue that if the team does what we expect, Mayfield shouldn't sniff top 5 passing attempts.  I guess it depends what people are "expecting".  Are we expecting Mayfield to be the next Aaron Rodgers all of a sudden, and for this to be an air-raid offense?  I would hope for Cleveland's sake that they stick with what worked for them in 2018: RB-centric offense (running and throwing to them), with plenty of play action passing.  And ball control.

 

Yes, Landry's situation is worse.  The situation that made him valuable was the quantity of targets.  And targets are going to decrease.

2014: 112 targets, 105 points

2015: 167 targets, 157 points

2016: 131 targets, 139 points

2017:  161 targets, 152 points

2018: 148 targets, 133 points

It's almost like he's getting 1 point per target, more or less, throughout his career... Except for last year, when it got even worse (played outside more, top CBs, less efficient)

Is the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. going to make his situation (target qty) better or worse?  He'll do more with each target, sure, but...

I'm guessing Beckham gets 160, Landry gets like 130, Njoku gets 90ish (had 88 last year), RBs get 100 (had 91 last year), then that's another 100 to sprinkled around between Callaway (had 70 last year), Higgins, and others.  Probably another 130-140-point kind of year for Landry.  1000 yards and 6-ish TDs.  Meh.

 

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18 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I don't think passing attempts correlates with success.  I don't think it doesn't either.  I just don't think it's related.  Top 5 passing teams last year: Pittsburgh (good team but missed the playoffs, I'd argue because they'd pass too much.  Don't get @JHM_13 started.).  Indianapolis (OK good team).  Green Bay (awful).  Tampa (woof).  Atlanta (missed playoffs).  I'd argue that if the team does what we expect, Mayfield shouldn't sniff top 5 passing attempts.  I guess it depends what people are "expecting".  Are we expecting Mayfield to be the next Aaron Rodgers all of a sudden, and for this to be an air-raid offense?  I would hope for Cleveland's sake that they stick with what worked for them in 2018: RB-centric offense (running and throwing to them), with plenty of play action passing.  And ball control.

 

Yes, Landry's situation is worse.  The situation that made him valuable was the quantity of targets.  And targets are going to decrease.

2014: 112 targets, 105 points

2015: 167 targets, 157 points

2016: 131 targets, 139 points

2017:  161 targets, 152 points

2018: 148 targets, 133 points

It's almost like he's getting 1 point per target, more or less, throughout his career... Except for last year, when it got even worse (played outside more, top CBs, less efficient)

Is the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. going to make his situation (target qty) better or worse?  He'll do more with each target, sure, but...

I'm guessing Beckham gets 160, Landry gets like 130, Njoku gets 90ish (had 88 last year), RBs get 100 (had 91 last year), then that's another 100 to sprinkled around between Callaway (had 70 last year), Higgins, and others.  Probably another 130-140-point kind of year for Landry.  1000 yards and 6-ish TDs.  Meh.

 

Mayfield was already throwing 35-40 times a game last year (without OBJ), that would get him in/close to the top 5.

And there was an odd, random stretch in the middle where Landry’s ypc went way down.

He could easily see an uptick to about 1100 yds with the same catch/tds numbers

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, psygolf said:

 

Shoe/Lord

Is his situation worse or actually better this season?

Should the coach & oc do what some are expecting, Mayfield should easily be well within the top 5 in passing attempts this year.  Plenty of targets to go around.  

 

I think same to worse. Last season he was the beneficiary of Josh Gordon leaving, Higgins injured, calloway underperforming ,njoku dissappearing,louis out and when they added perrriman they actually had a legit deep threat who had a good connection with Baker.  So despite all of those factors plus Landry running a full route tree, being the defacto alpha wr on the team he was basically average.  I also don't think he had chemistry with Baker. 

Landry would need to increase is TD totals and dominate on those intermediary routes to make a push into the wr1 ranks but I could easily see the OBJ and baker chemistry lighting it up all over the field and not leaving much for Landry.

 

basically i have no interest in another sterling shepard

Edited by dashoe

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