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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I think same to worse. Last season he was the beneficiary of Josh Gordon leaving, Higgins injured, calloway underperforming ,njoku dissappearing,louis out and when they added perrriman they actually had a legit deep threat who had a good connection with Baker.  So despite all of those factors plus Landry running a full route tree, being the defacto alpha wr on the team he was basically average.  I also don't think he had chemistry with Baker. 

Landry would need to increase is TD totals and dominate on those intermediary routes to make a push into the wr1 ranks but I could easily see the OBJ and baker chemistry lighting it up all over the field and not leaving much for Landry.

 

basically i have no interest in another sterling shepard

I haven’t paid the $ to see the % he spent running routes in the slot...to see if he played out of position a sig amount on the outside

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I am lost. Is this the Nick Chubb thread?

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I was about to say, “Did this just become the Cleveland Browns Outlook” thread while I wasn’t looking?!

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7 hours ago, BMcP said:

I was about to say, “Did this just become the Cleveland Browns Outlook” thread while I wasn’t looking?!

It’s all about the Browns now.  

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On 3/27/2019 at 6:37 PM, Blu Exile said:

Kitchens says Duke Johnson will have a role this year, plus Kareem Hunt when he comes back. He talked about possibly running a wishbone. Looks like a 3 headed RBBC incoming unless they deal Duke.

 

Exactly!

I now look at the Browns RB situation the same way I do the Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Broncos, Ravens, Bills and Patriots. Their carries are being split so you have to be very careful getting any RB on one of these teams.

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7 hours ago, Jags02 said:

 

Exactly!

I now look at the Browns RB situation the same way I do the Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Broncos, Ravens, Bills and Patriots. Their carries are being split so you have to be very careful getting any RB on one of these teams.

Sure are limiting your options at drafting a RB with that view. Chubb is the unquestioned #1 and ball hog in that backfield until Hunt returns from suspension. Of course Duke is going to be involved. They don't have depth behind Chubb without Duke. Depending on how much Hunt becomes involved though I would expect Duke to be nearly non-existent towards the end of the season.

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People must be forgetting Hunt doesn't come back until week 10.  He's not going to jump into a 50/50 timeshare.  There's no guarantee he even see's the field all that much.

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

People must be forgetting Hunt doesn't come back until week 10.  He's not going to jump into a 50/50 timeshare.  There's no guarantee he even see's the field all that much.

Which is exactly why the Browns are refusing to trade Duke. Duke will have a role for most of the season, if not the entire season.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

Sure are limiting your options at drafting a RB with that view. Chubb is the unquestioned #1 and ball hog in that backfield until Hunt returns from suspension. Of course Duke is going to be involved. They don't have depth behind Chubb without Duke. Depending on how much Hunt becomes involved though I would expect Duke to be nearly non-existent towards the end of the season.

 

I think people are smart to be careful drafting chubb when you look at the other rb's you can acquire for the same draft capital but without the concern of an rbbc lurking come fantasy playoff time, very similar to the discount williams has because of the uncertainty with the competition in his backfield

If there was no Hunt involved Chubb would be an end of rd1 early 2nd pick instead of a mid2nd rd pick.

 

10 2.03 Joe Mixon RB CIN 9 14.7 2.5 1.06 2.08 166
11 2.05 Dalvin Cook RB MIN 12 17.5 3.0 1.10 2.12 144
12 2.08 Nick Chubb RB CLE 7 20.4 2.9 1.12 3.05 153
13 2.09 Damien Williams RB KC 12 21.2 3.2 1.07 3.05 136
14 2.11 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 9 23.1 4.0 1.06 3.08 124
15 3.04 Leonard Fournette RB JAX 10 27.9 3.8 2.05 3.12 187
16 3.05 Marlon Mack RB IND 6 28.7 3.7 2.03 4.03 178
17 3.07 Josh Jacobs RB OAK 6 31.1 3.6 2.03 4.04 170

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40 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I think people are smart to be careful drafting chubb when you look at the other rb's you can acquire for the same draft capital but without the concern of an rbbc lurking come fantasy playoff time

 

10 2.03 Joe Mixon RB CIN 9 14.7 2.5 1.06 2.08 166  
11 2.05 Dalvin Cook RB MIN 12 17.5 3.0 1.10 2.12 144  
12 2.08 Nick Chubb RB CLE 7 20.4 2.9 1.12 3.05 153  
13 2.09 Damien Williams RB KC 12 21.2 3.2 1.07 3.05 136  
14 2.11 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 9 23.1 4.0 1.06 3.08 124  
15 3.04 Leonard Fournette RB JAX 10 27.9 3.8 2.05 3.12 187  
16 3.05 Marlon Mack RB IND 6 28.7 3.7 2.03 4.03 178  
17 3.07 Josh Jacobs RB OAK 6 31.1 3.6 2.03 4.04 170

Looks about right to me

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I feel like his receiving ability is already underrated as well, similar to Fournette.  He can catch 40-50 balls.

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6 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Looks about right to me

I have fournette and freeman ahead of chubb and williams

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7 hours ago, Blu Exile said:

I'm actually coming around on Chubb.

 

I think chubb is a good prospect however the question for me is how to mitigate the potential duke/hunt risk taking market share come fantasy playoff time. 

So many teams get burned playoff time when that season long stud turns into  why is he getting less touches dud. . 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

I think chubb is a good prospect however the question for me is how to mitigate the potential duke/hunt risk taking market share come fantasy playoff time. 

So many teams get burned playoff time when that season long stud turns into  why is he getting less touches dud. . 

He didn't lose a market share last season to Duke. Hunt looms, but Duke is a complementary piece.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, devaster said:

He didn't lose a market share last season to Duke. Hunt looms, but Duke is a complementary piece.

I'm not speaking of Duke specifically. I'm speaking potentially of hunt+ Duke collectively come fantasy playoffs.

Hunt can run routes as well as between the tackles and i am not going to assumme Duke plays 10 games and then gets iced because Hunt gets rotated in

Edited by dashoe

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Posted (edited)
On 2/11/2019 at 3:21 PM, fletch44 said:

as far as bad attention is concerned, sadly nobody cares about this stuff. If anything, Kareem Hunt in the fold probably sells more tickets in Cleveland.  Whenever one of these domestic violence guys gets signed people always talk about a PR backlash, etc but it never actually happens. Twitter and talk show blowhards get all fake-outraged for a news cycle or two but nobody actually stops watching.

Sad but true. I rooted for the Browns when they came back from the dead..and now that they have finally turned it around, they sign that low-life. I hope they lose every game until he's gone. 

As for FF, I'm not sure where this puts his value. He's fine until Hunt returns IMO. Will you take the hit late season to get the earlier production? 

Edited by bomont

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On 5/28/2019 at 7:43 PM, dashoe said:

I have fournette and freeman ahead of chubb and williams

Me too. They might have injury or other such concerns, but they aren't looking over their shoulder. 

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On 5/30/2019 at 1:16 PM, devaster said:

He didn't lose a market share last season to Duke. Hunt looms, but Duke is a complementary piece.

I think Hunt looms more for Duke than for Chubb

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Nick Chubb vs Aaron Jones vs Kerryon Johnson is what I'm debating right now. I have all three above Mack and behind Devonta. 

With Chubb, I worry about his lack of productivity in the passing game last year along with Kareem Hunt coming in week 10. Also, it looks like Duke is staying put at least until the trade deadline.

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Nick chubb has shades of Isaiah Crowell from a couple years ago and Derrick Henry the past couple years. Most of his yards have came off of about about 8 runs. Actually over a third of his yards have came off 8 runs. Not saying he isnt going to be good but those big plays are pretty hard to predict. Especially if your not just blazing fast which chubb isnt. 

But this is also true for saquon barkely so what do I know. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Jags02 said:

Nick Chubb vs Aaron Jones vs Kerryon Johnson is what I'm debating right now.

No debate here, my friend.

 

6 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Nick chubb has shades of Isaiah Crowell from a couple years ago and Derrick Henry the past couple years. Most of his yards have came off of about about 8 runs.

I understand the temptation to look at stats like these, but we must look at talent, and situation, and broader context.  Talent: Chubb is better than both of them, both athletically and intangibly.  Situation: Chubb's the workhorse RB of a strong, balanced offense, with a great defense to back him up.  Broader context: Nick Chubb was an early 2nd round pick, coming off a rookie year where he rushed for 1k yards (then lost 3 yards on his last carry) despite only starting 12 games.  As a rookie, he was PFF's highest rated RB in the league.

 

Nick Chubb is an elite talent, and I don't throw the word elite around.  Barkley, Elliott, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara ... Nick Chubb is in a tier with them.  (OK, I guess Saquon is in a tier of his own, talent-wise).  I'd compare Chubb most to Elliott among them -- doesn't flash amazing receiving ability, but he's competent there ... but is a perfect runner: size, power, speed, balance, elusiveness, everything, it doesn't get better.

 

 

 

David Johnson ADP in best ball drafts is now 5.8.

Nick Chubb's is 19.5.

How is the proven workhorse on (what looks to be) a top offense, with a top defense.... going 14 picks after a guy without an OL, with a rookie QB, with a s--- defense?

Are we so frightened of 8 games with Kareem Hunt backing him up?

 

I hope the market stays skittish about that, because Nick Chubb is worth a top 10 pick in any format.  I'm taking him in the 2nd round every single time and laughing.

 

 

Edited by Lord_Varys
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I dunno. I hear the reports about how great he is, but when I watch the tape of Chubb I'm just not seeing it. I watch, Melvin Gordon for instance and then watch Chubb... Gordon excites me more. Same goes with a few of the top RBs. I'd take Le'Veon Bell over Chubb in a heartbeat. 

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15 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

I dunno. I hear the reports about how great he is, but when I watch the tape of Chubb I'm just not seeing it. I watch, Melvin Gordon for instance and then watch Chubb... Gordon excites me more. Same goes with a few of the top RBs. I'd take Le'Veon Bell over Chubb in a heartbeat. 

 

Yea I kinda feel the same and I know that makes me a hypocrite because I love Derrick henry. Chubn probably won't catch a ton of balls and Kareem hunt will probably taper off some Carrie's when ya need them most. 

Chubb is atleast very good and in a great offense so he will score TDs but as I said earlier over a third of his yards came on 8 Carries. After that he was soemthing like 660 yards on 184 Carries with a 3.6 ypc. Now I know this is a misleading stat because we just took 8 of his best carries away. But ya can do that Zeke or Kamara or CMC. 

Chubb will probably be awesome and I'll draft him but I'm just saying maybe expect top 5 rb numbers. 

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8 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

those big plays are pretty hard to predict. Especially if your not just blazing fast which chubb isnt.

 

25 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

I dunno. I hear the reports about how great he is, but when I watch the tape of Chubb I'm just not seeing it.

 

8 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Yea I kinda feel the same

 

Are we all watching the same guy?  I see nothing but explosion and power.  Tackle breaking, beating DB's with his speed, running guys over.  Agree to disagree I guess.

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