munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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Already feels like the hype for Chubb will be way out of control as we approach draft season.  Unlikely I will be able to pay for this dude because everyone will be pegging him as 'upside' RB1 and you'll miss out on possibly a more surefire stud for the price.  Chubb should be a surefire stud himself, we just don't fully know yet.

 

Maybe year three I will be able to snag him...

Edited by Zak0221

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12 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Already feels like the hype for Chubb will be way out of control as we approach draft season.  Unlikely I will be able to pay for this dude because everyone will be pegging him as 'upside' RB1 and you'll miss out on possibly a more surefire stud for the price.  Chubb should be a surefire stud himself, we just don't fully know yet.

 

Maybe year three I will be able to snag him...

Agree. Based on the discussion here he is already on my DNB list (Do Not Bother). I'm sure you all are correct in your assessment, I just don't see it, and then I prefer to stay away. I would consider him in the 4th round, definitely not in the second.

 

I'm sure I'll regret it, but that'll be the price to pay.

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I would consider him in the 4th round, definitely not in the second.

you will never see him in the 4th.....not even the 3rd.....he will go mid 2nd latest. look at most dynasty rankings and they have him in the top10. fantasy pros have him at 9 behind dalvin cook and ahead of djohnson and conner and bell. better get him in the 2nd, or forget about him altogether. he is in a great young offense with a great young qb.

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4 hours ago, Zak0221 said:

Maybe year three I will be able to snag him...

ships already sailed in dynasty/keeper. hope you do redraft.

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If you can grab Chubb in the 2nd as your RB2, don’t hesitate.

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On 1/3/2019 at 2:01 PM, Gfycat said:

Just curious - would you draft Chubb in the 2nd over other RB's like Mixon or Aaron Jones?

yes i would

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20 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Agree. Based on the discussion here he is already on my DNB list (Do Not Bother). I'm sure you all are correct in your assessment, I just don't see it, and then I prefer to stay away. I would consider him in the 4th round, definitely not in the second.

 

I'm sure I'll regret it, but that'll be the price to pay.

4th round?

 

Would you consider Gurley if he fell into the 3rd round?

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

 

4th round?

 

Would you consider Gurley if he fell into the 3rd round?

 

Agreed, if he reaches the 4th round, you’re in a 4 team league.

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

 

4th round?

 

Would you consider Gurley if he fell into the 3rd round?

Gurley is a top-5 back, and has proved it for 4 straight years. We're not discussing him, but a guy on a team who was RB7 for half a season.

 

But ok, I'll I admit my "fourth round" was too low.

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Gurley is a top-5 back, and has proved it for 4 straight years. We're not discussing him, but a guy on a team who was RB7 for half a season.

 

But ok, I'll I admit my "fourth round" was too low.

Last year there were 9 RBs who had an average ADP in the first round of 12 team leagues with an additional 6 going in the second and 5 more in the third. That's 20 running backs taken in the first three rounds. 

 

Current ADP rankings has 17 running backs going within the first three rounds 11 going in the first two, and 8 going in the first round alone (which is about average for recent years). 

 

So if you're saying you wouldn't take him until the 4th round, who are the 17 running backs you'd take ahead of him? If you're saying you wouldn't take him in the 3rd round, who are the 11 running backs you'd take ahead of him? 

 

Current ADP has Chubb at RB9 and being taken as the 15th overall pick. I think that's about right at this point but I would not be surprised to see him sneak into the 1st round closer to actual drafts. 

 

In standard scoring leagues, I would take him over just about every single WR at this point.

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I sold Chubb in our keeper league for a 2nd round pick. I think he has top 5 upside, but also it was his 1st year. Duke Johnson say an uptick as well in snaps. The team is going to throw the ball. I know its a long shot, but Kareem Hunt isn't out of the realm of a possibility in Cleveland either as a playmaker either.

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As a keeper league owner of Chubb...

 

Chubb shouldn't be part of the first round until he proves he can be a bigger part of the passing game. He's currently 8th on my RB list and he's in the range where I would rather take a reliable stud WR (Hill, Jones, JuJu).

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i wouldnt spend a too high of a pick on a 2nd year RB who hasnt seen many targets.

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Chubb is a mystery value rb.

He has demonstrated he has big play ability but we also know what Duke can do in a passing offense.  Baker is turning this team into a passing offense. 

I'm not sold on Chubb being an every week stud in this offense with Duke hanging around. i think it would be unwise to think Duke just rides the bench while chubb gets all of the touches. 

I would probably lean on taking Dalvin, DJ, Mixon ahead of him

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Chubb had a very good floor when he was the starter and extremely high ceiling. He ended up being a low-end RB1. And he was seeing plenty of scoring opportunities and enough targets. I would grab him in the 2nd round.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

Chubb had a very good floor when he was the starter and extremely high ceiling. He ended up being a low-end RB1. And he was seeing plenty of scoring opportunities and enough targets. I would grab him in the 2nd round.

No he actually had a bottomless floor, with games of 3, 8.5, 10, 12.4 out of his 10 games as the starter in .5ppr. And averaged 15.5 ppg over the games he started. He had 2 games out of 10 over 20 points.

 

A couple examples of MUCH better RBs last season were:

CMC(obviously) who had lows of 10.1, 10.5, and 11 points over 15 full games started. He averaged 21.8 ppg and had a whopping 9 out of 15 games over 20 points scored, with another 1 at 19.6.

Damien Williams(less obviously but as emphatically better than Chubb as CMC), who had lows of 12.4(in a game he only played a half in) and 17 in his 6 games started. He averaged 22.8 ppg and had over 20 points 4 times in his 5 full games started. Even including the game he only played a half of, he destroys Chubb’s average and floor by a country mile. 

 

Edited by elroypedro

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18 minutes ago, Tread_Lightly said:

Standard #7

PPR #10-14 range 

10-14 range is fair in ppr, but he has more value in standard. Duke Johnson had a tremendous uptick in snaps the last 5 weeks. If the browns select a wr then it says they want to air it out more with baker. If the browns select a OL they're going to pound it.

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4 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

10-14 range is fair in ppr, but he has more value in standard. Duke Johnson had a tremendous uptick in snaps the last 5 weeks. If the browns select a wr then it says they want to air it out more with baker. If the browns select a OL they're going to pound it.

 

Tremendous uptick in the last 5 weeks? Na, not really. I'll give you a tremendous uptick in week 16, when his snap count jumped to 62.7%. In week 15, it was 46.4%, but there were five games in the first nine games in which he had a similar or higher snap count percentage.

 

Duke's snap count percentage for the season was 42.1. For the final five weeks (12-16), it was 35.1, 34.6, 38.8, 46.4, 62.7. It did bottom out at 32.1 and 28.1 in weeks 10-11, but those were his two lowest weeks. So I guess in comparison to weeks 10-11, there was a slight uptick in weeks 12-14 and tremendous in weeks 15-16. But in comparison to the season as a whole, there wasn't a big increase in snap count outside of week 16. 

 

As for the draft. The Browns could sign 1-2 OL in free agency and then select a WR...says nothing to us. Or they could sign a FA WR and then select an OL...says nothing. Personally, I think they're going to address both positions in the offseason because they want to improve their offense overall, both in the running game and the passing game. 

 

The biggest key to me was the retention of Kitchens as HC. I believe that will pay nice dividends for Chubb in 2019.

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17 hours ago, elroypedro said:

No he actually had a bottomless floor, with games of 3, 8.5, 10, 12.4 out of his 10 games as the starter in .5ppr. And averaged 15.5 ppg over the games he started. He had 2 games out of 10 over 20 points.

 

A couple examples of MUCH better RBs last season were:

CMC(obviously) who had lows of 10.1, 10.5, and 11 points over 15 full games started. He averaged 21.8 ppg and had a whopping 9 out of 15 games over 20 points scored, with another 1 at 19.6.

Damien Williams(less obviously but as emphatically better than Chubb as CMC), who had lows of 12.4(in a game he only played a half in) and 17 in his 6 games started. He averaged 22.8 ppg and had over 20 points 4 times in his 5 full games started. Even including the game he only played a half of, he destroys Chubb’s average and floor by a country mile. 

 

I wouldn't call that bottomless.  Yes the 3 pointer stings, but that was Week 17 when the fantasy season was over essentially.  

 

He became the starter in Week 7.  RB ranks in .5 PPR:

Week 7: RB16

Week 8: RB28

Week 9: RB12

Week 10: RB1

Week 11: BYE

Week 12: RB3

Week 13: RB12

Week 14: RB11

Week 15: RB27 

Week 16: RB21

 

Week 8, 15 and 16 weren't spectacular, but you still got low RB2/high RB3/FLEX level production which isn't bad considering this guy was a bench player for everyone going into the season. 

 

Next year I'm certainly still taking established players over Chubb, but I wouldn't call his floor bottomless.  A guy like Dion Lewis had a bottomless floor where he scored terribly multiple weeks.  Even in Chubb's down weeks you got RB3/FLEX level play.  

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6 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I wouldn't call that bottomless.  Yes the 3 pointer stings, but that was Week 17 when the fantasy season was over essentially.  

 

He became the starter in Week 7.  RB ranks in .5 PPR:

Week 7: RB16

Week 8: RB28

Week 9: RB12

Week 10: RB1

Week 11: BYE

Week 12: RB3

Week 13: RB12

Week 14: RB11

Week 15: RB27 

Week 16: RB21

 

Week 8, 15 and 16 weren't spectacular, but you still got low RB2/high RB3/FLEX level production which isn't bad considering this guy was a bench player for everyone going into the season. 

 

Next year I'm certainly still taking established players over Chubb, but I wouldn't call his floor bottomless.  A guy like Dion Lewis had a bottomless floor where he scored terribly multiple weeks.  Even in Chubb's down weeks you got RB3/FLEX level play.  

I was responding to a poster who said Chubb had a “very good floor.” 3 points as a floor is basically as bottomless as it gets for an RB1, or RB2, or even RB3.

 

You lied by omission by neglecting to mention that week when he scored his “floor” score. He was tied as RB48 that week with Kapri Bibbs and Deandre Washington. Yikes!

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1 minute ago, elroypedro said:

I was responding to a poster who said Chubb had a “very good floor.” 3 points as a floor is basically as bottomless as it gets for an RB1, or RB2, or even RB3.

 

You lied by omission by neglecting to mention that week when he scored his “floor” score. He was tied as RB48 that week with Kapri Bibbs and Deandre Washington. Yikes!

Understood, but I referenced in my post that Week 17 doesn't really count IMO, so I didn't include it in my list.  

 

I agree that Chubb doesn't have a very good floor.  But I disagree it's bottomless.  Plus you have to consider improvement from the Browns next year, going into the off-season/season with an effective offensive scheme that won't change mid-season.  Plus a QB coming into his second year, going into the season as the starter rather than the #2, and Chubb heading into the season as the #1, I think we can project improvement from the Browns overall.  So if we both agree Chubb's floor in 2018 was OK not great, then next year I imagine it will get better. 

 

Chubb has an ADP of 13 overall right now in .5 PPR which I think is crazy.  

 

Guys I would take over Chubb as of right now (in no order):

Gurley

CMC

Antonio Brown

Barkley

Elliott

Kamara

Hopkins

Gordon

Adams

M. Thomas

Julio

Juju

Tyreek

Conner

Hunt (depending on landing spot)

Bell (depending on landing spot)

 

Toss up guys:

Keenen Allen

Mike Evans

David Johnson

Joe Mixon

Thielen

Diggs

 

So I'm probably not going to get Chubb next year because his ADP will most likely get higher as pre-season reports say "Chubb will be more involved in the passing game."  Floor was decent though sans a Week 17 game when fantasy was done with.  

 

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17 hours ago, elroypedro said:

No he actually had a bottomless floor, with games of 3, 8.5, 10, 12.4 out of his 10 games as the starter in .5ppr. And averaged 15.5 ppg over the games he started. He had 2 games out of 10 over 20 points.

 

A couple examples of MUCH better RBs last season were:

CMC(obviously) who had lows of 10.1, 10.5, and 11 points over 15 full games started. He averaged 21.8 ppg and had a whopping 9 out of 15 games over 20 points scored, with another 1 at 19.6.

Damien Williams(less obviously but as emphatically better than Chubb as CMC), who had lows of 12.4(in a game he only played a half in) and 17 in his 6 games started. He averaged 22.8 ppg and had over 20 points 4 times in his 5 full games started. Even including the game he only played a half of, he destroys Chubb’s average and floor by a country mile. 

 

 

Wait a second. Chubb's low of 3.0 came in week 17, when most leagues were done. So why are you not counting CMC's low of 4.5...that also came in week 17? And CMC started 16 games, not 15. 

 

I'm not saying Chubb was in CMC's league by any means, but if you're going to make the comparison, at least do it fairly. CMC laid almost as big a dud as Chubb did in the same week. 

Edited by Flyman75
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23 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

I was responding to a poster who said Chubb had a “very good floor.” 3 points as a floor is basically as bottomless as it gets for an RB1, or RB2, or even RB3.

 

You lied by omission by neglecting to mention that week when he scored his “floor” score. He was tied as RB48 that week with Kapri Bibbs and Deandre Washington. Yikes!

 

So then you lied by omission by neglecting to mention that CMC's actual low score was 4.5 points in the same week (17) that Chubb's low score came? What was CMC's RB ranking that week? He was RB45 in my 1/2 PPR league...Chubb was tied for RB53. 

Edited by Flyman75
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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

So then you lied by omission by neglecting to mention that CMC's actual low score was 4.5 points in the same week (17) that Chubb's low score came? What was CMC's RB ranking that week? He was RB45 in my 1/2 PPR league...Chubb was tied for RB53. 

CMC played over 90% of snaps in 15 games this season, including 8 games where he played 100% of snaps. He played 13% week 17 and was sat after the first drive because the season was over. That game means absolutely nothing in terms of fantasy. Nothing. It is irrelevant. Yet he still had more points than Chubb, who played the whole game. You are being so far beyond disingenuous you too are now basically lying trying to make an untrue point look to be  true

Edited by elroypedro
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