munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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9 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

"This is a well thought out response and much more constructive than just disagreeing with someone and calling them an idiot. I disagree with your first paragraph as I find it extremely unlikely that a back discarded by another team would be able to beat out Kareem Hunt who has a resume of 28 starts with great career numbers albeit in a high powered offense. 

I absolutely agree with the strategy of targeting RBs later who are behind guys with weaknesses or perceived weaknesses. Be it Lindsay’s size/draft capital, Williams’ small sample of success and lack of prior accomplishments, Michel’s knee, Kerryon’s injury history, whatever. In the 2 cases you mentioned I don’t like Hyde as a fit with Reid since he’s a below average receiver and Reid prefers a plus receiver as his lead back. But I agree its a potential jackpot situation if something were to happen to Williams. Freeman I don’t think he’s all that good. So I agree with the strategy just don’t agree with the talent or situation entirely for those 2 guys. Also of course as you mention differences apply in ppr vs .5 ppr."

 

I apologize as you were clearly offended & retract my choice of words, but I didn't call you or anyone else an idiot. I was speaking to Chubb owners who had likely drafted him in the rounds you advocated Hunt. Owners listing him as a late-mid or double-digit round keeper but also drafting Hunt in the 8th or 9th only undermines the draft capital they have accrued, imo. I'll say instead it's strategy I won't be considering.

You could be right about Freeman, but I believe the team has a different opinion. When defenses cheat up & tighten to get your ball-carrier stopped, that's a good thing. The team knows they handed him the ball a lot in less-than-favorable situations. He also played x number of games on a gimpy ankle. When the factors mentioned are taken into account, I consider it premature to give up on Royce Freeman. The bigger question perhaps is whether they've added enough elsewhere to turn it around? 

Carlos Hyde, it's not as if it were August & something unexpected just happened & they need a guy. Oh, what's his name again? Oh yeah, him, bring him in. No, they chose to sign him because he can do everything, including catch. He was in SF with Shanahan, so Hyde is very familiar with a zone run scheme. I watched a video contending that throughout his career, Hyde has been most effective running weak side, off-tackle. That happens to be where KC is most effective as well. Same thing in the short passing game to their ball-carriers, both him & the KC offense have been most productive on that swing route to the weak side. So, there's evidence to suggest that he's a good fit.      

 

 

     

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

 

I apologize as you were clearly offended & retract my choice of words, but I didn't call you or anyone else an idiot. I was speaking to Chubb owners who had likely drafted him in the rounds you advocated Hunt. Owners listing him as a late-mid or double-digit round keeper but also drafting Hunt in the 8th or 9th only undermines the draft capital they have accrued, imo. I'll say instead it's strategy I won't be considering.

You could be right about Freeman, but I believe the team has a different opinion. When defenses cheat up & tighten to get your ball-carrier stopped, that's a good thing. The team knows they handed him the ball a lot in less-than-favorable situations. He also played x number of games on a gimpy ankle. When the factors mentioned are taken into account, I consider it premature to give up on Royce Freeman. The bigger question perhaps is whether they've added enough elsewhere to turn it around? 

Carlos Hyde, it's not as if it were August & something unexpected just happened & they need a guy. Oh, what's his name again? Oh yeah, him, bring him in. No, they chose to sign him because he can do everything, including catch. He was in SF with Shanahan, so Hyde is very familiar with a zone run scheme. I watched a video contending that throughout his career, Hyde has been most effective running weak side, off-tackle. That happens to be where KC is most effective as well. Same thing in the short passing game to their ball-carriers, both him & the KC offense have been most productive on that swing route to the weak side. So, there's evidence to suggest that he's a good fit.      

 

 

     

Keeper league format changes things strategically. Sadly I didn’t get Chubb in either of my keepers so adding Hunt there wouldn’t be as hedge to injury for Chubb. Depending on roster size and rules I’d still look for him around the same rounds though. Maybe even earlier. I think he’s a very talented back and would have no problem waiting on him for a year or 2 again depending on roster sizes and how the round penalty increases in the following years. 

I’m not going to fight you on Freeman. Denver added a top O lineman I think I saw in another thread? That’s a good thing. I’m guessing he’s still going to see a lot of loaded fronts as their wrs are still unproven and Flacco doesn’t scare anyone. I don’t think it’s always a tip of the cap to the rb when defenses push up for him. It could be the personnel the team is in when he’s in the game. I’d guess the Bromcos were in more run heavy formations for him compared to Lindsay so he’d naturally see more guys in the box. And teams would be likely to keep their base defense in against a non threat receiver like Freeman. Anyways just a couple thoughts. If you like Freeman it’s a perfectly reasonable stance.

Good info on Hyde. I’ll still disagree about Hyde as a receiver. His career yards per target is below 4 which is awful. For comparison Hunt’s is 8.5. Williams was 6.9 in KC last year. Ware’s was over 10 his year starting. Trumped up by KC’s system? Probably some. But if you look at Shanny’s backs the guys who saw major time (Slaton, Freeman, Coleman, Breida they were in the 6-7 range. Even Alfred Morris who is far from even an average receiving back was at 5.7 with Shanny. Hyde got forced volume when Shanny inherited him but only averaged 4 ypt. If something happens to Williams and Reid turns to Hyde he will have to sacrifice something in his rb passing game or utilize a second back for that role.

 

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On 6/14/2019 at 5:20 AM, Boudewijn said:

Remember that both are really high numbers:

- 12 TD over the past 10 years is on average top-6

- 14 TD for an RB is on average top-3

Even if you consider him a top-10 back (and most people put him just under that), 10 TD would be a really nice total.

Exactly. People are tossing around numbers (all over not just in this thread) like 14 TDs, 1400 yds etc...those are very top elite numbers and even the best don't always achieve them, so expecting it from lesser guys is a curious mentality.

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11 hours ago, bomont said:

Exactly. People are tossing around numbers (all over not just in this thread) like 14 TDs, 1400 yds etc...those are very top elite numbers and even the best don't always achieve them, so expecting it from lesser guys is a curious mentality.

Again, we’re talking about a 16 game projection here. You should always have more guys projected to do something over 16 games compared to how many actually do it historically. Every season we lose guys to injuries and trades and unruly fans (name that movie!) so not as many will hit. I won’t talk about the 1400 yards because assuming that’s rushing yards it’s more rare and it wasn’t my prediction. 14 tds I think is a reasonable number as a 16 game projection.

I see 2 big things we’re projecting here. First is that Cleveland will take a jump into the top 10 offenses. They were 11 last year and their key young players of Mayfield Njoku Chubb Callaway are all year older plus they added Odell. 2nd Chubb will be the feature back and is really good. If you think these 2 things will happen/are true then there should be good odds that Chubb will score a lot of touchdowns.

Top 10 offenses last year:

Chiefs- Hunt 14 tds in 11 games

Bucs- Barber. Meh talent

Rams- Gurley 21 tds

Pats- committee, White 12 tds. Michel 6 in 13 games

Pitt- Conner 13 tds in 13 games

Falcons- Lead back hurt

Indy- Mack 10 tds in 10 starts (12 games)

NO- Kamara 18 tds

Car- CMC 13 tds in essentially 15 games

GB- Jones 9 tds in 8 starts (12 games)

That’s a lot of teams in the top 10 of total offense whose backs either got to 14 tds or were on pace for 14 tds. Or in CMC’s case was damn close. 

2017 the numbers aren’t as close. DJ went down week 1 and Zeke got popped for 6 games.

2016 looks similar to 2018 at a glance.

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18 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Again, we’re talking about a 16 game projection here. You should always have more guys projected to do something over 16 games compared to how many actually do it historically. Every season we lose guys to injuries and trades and unruly fans (name that movie!) so not as many will hit. I won’t talk about the 1400 yards because assuming that’s rushing yards it’s more rare and it wasn’t my prediction. 14 tds I think is a reasonable number as a 16 game projection.

I see 2 big things we’re projecting here. First is that Cleveland will take a jump into the top 10 offenses. They were 11 last year and their key young players of Mayfield Njoku Chubb Callaway are all year older plus they added Odell. 2nd Chubb will be the feature back and is really good. If you think these 2 things will happen/are true then there should be good odds that Chubb will score a lot of touchdowns.

Top 10 offenses last year:

Chiefs- Hunt 14 tds in 11 games

Bucs- Barber. Meh talent

Rams- Gurley 21 tds

Pats- committee, White 12 tds. Michel 6 in 13 games

Pitt- Conner 13 tds in 13 games

Falcons- Lead back hurt

Indy- Mack 10 tds in 10 starts (12 games)

NO- Kamara 18 tds

Car- CMC 13 tds in essentially 15 games

GB- Jones 9 tds in 8 starts (12 games)

That’s a lot of teams in the top 10 of total offense whose backs either got to 14 tds or were on pace for 14 tds. Or in CMC’s case was damn close. 

2017 the numbers aren’t as close. DJ went down week 1 and Zeke got popped for 6 games.

2016 looks similar to 2018 at a glance.

Not to mention the Bucs and Falcons both had bottom 5 defenses.  That doesn't help the RB.  Cleveland doesn't have that.

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43 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Again, we’re talking about a 16 game projection here. You should always have more guys projected to do something over 16 games compared to how many actually do it historically. Every season we lose guys to injuries and trades and unruly fans (name that movie!) so not as many will hit. I won’t talk about the 1400 yards because assuming that’s rushing yards it’s more rare and it wasn’t my prediction. 14 tds I think is a reasonable number as a 16 game projection.

I see 2 big things we’re projecting here. First is that Cleveland will take a jump into the top 10 offenses. They were 11 last year and their key young players of Mayfield Njoku Chubb Callaway are all year older plus they added Odell. 2nd Chubb will be the feature back and is really good. If you think these 2 things will happen/are true then there should be good odds that Chubb will score a lot of touchdowns.

Top 10 offenses last year:

Chiefs- Hunt 14 tds in 11 games

Bucs- Barber. Meh talent

Rams- Gurley 21 tds

Pats- committee, White 12 tds. Michel 6 in 13 games

Pitt- Conner 13 tds in 13 games

Falcons- Lead back hurt

Indy- Mack 10 tds in 10 starts (12 games)

NO- Kamara 18 tds

Car- CMC 13 tds in essentially 15 games

GB- Jones 9 tds in 8 starts (12 games)

That’s a lot of teams in the top 10 of total offense whose backs either got to 14 tds or were on pace for 14 tds. Or in CMC’s case was damn close. 

2017 the numbers aren’t as close. DJ went down week 1 and Zeke got popped for 6 games.

2016 looks similar to 2018 at a glance.

Great post, though I was speaking very generally about elite numbers and  people projecting them rather casually.

 

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54 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Again, we’re talking about a 16 game projection here. You should always have more guys projected to do something over 16 games compared to how many actually do it historically.

True. Not suddenly 5 times as many, but say 20% more is not unreasonable.

55 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Every season we lose guys to injuries and trades and unruly fans (name that movie!) so not as many will hit. I won’t talk about the 1400 yards because assuming that’s rushing yards it’s more rare and it wasn’t my prediction. 14 tds I think is a reasonable number as a 16 game projection.

No it's not.

You can nominate a couple more guys for 10 TD than you think will really happen, that's fair; but you can't suddenly extrapolate that to 14. That's just not how it works.

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

Every season we lose guys to injuries and trades and unruly fans (name that movie!) 

 

Wedding crashers?

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Let's just say his TD upside is just as high as any other RB...

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

True. Not suddenly 5 times as many, but say 20% more is not unreasonable.

No it's not.

You can nominate a couple more guys for 10 TD than you think will really happen, that's fair; but you can't suddenly extrapolate that to 14. That's just not how it works.

I’m not trying to be fair. And I’m not trying to guess the number of guys who will actually exceed 10 tds or 14 tds or whatever benchmark. I’m trying to set projections for comparison’s sake. I’ll adjust my rankings for other factors like injury risk for a couple specific guys after that. Otherwise I’m not in the business of guessing injuries so everything will be projected over 16 games.

Edited by Bmore86

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46 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Otherwise I’m not in the business of guessing injuries so everything will be projected over 16 games.

I agree with your goal. However, your method is wrong. Good luck with that :)

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41 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I agree with your goal. However, your method is wrong. Good luck with that :)

When forming projections, if arbitrarily choosing a couple extra guys to go over 10 tds is right and projecting everyone to 16 games is wrong then I don’t want to be right.

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1 minute ago, Bmore86 said:

When forming projections, if arbitrarily choosing a couple extra guys to go over 10 tds is right and projecting everyone to 16 games is wrong then I don’t want to be right.

I agree. Of course that's not what I said at all, but I see this is the kind of discussion where that doesn't matter.

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2 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Otherwise I’m not in the business of guessing injuries

I think you are more than you realize, as we all have to be to some extent, meaning it factors into what value or interest you place on a player. Gurley not being the first or second highest-ranked RB this year is a perfect example.

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1 minute ago, bomont said:

I think you are more than you realize, as we all have to be to some extent, meaning it factors into what value or interest you place on a player. Gurley not being the first or second highest-ranked RB this year is a perfect example.

Right, I mean when there’s a clear risk factor like Gurley’s knee or Michel’s I’ll take that into account in my rankings. But I’m not going to try and guess whose going to miss a few games out of DJ, Zeke, CMC, Kamara, Chubb, Saquon, etc. Odds are someone or someones will miss games and cause them to be lower than their projection but trying to guess who isn’t logical. I would approach someone like Gurley by trying to figure out how I think the Rams intend to use him (good luck with that!). If I arrived that he would see 15 carries, 4 targets, and goal line I would use those guesses over 16 games to get to his touches and projected points. Then I’ll weigh how much I want to drop him based on the fact that he’s a considerable injury risk.

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Did we really spend time comparing Damien Williams to Kareem Hunt? Williams did well and I expect he will continue to do so in 2019, but come on, people. That is a fool's errand.

 

So is drafting Hunt in the 9th round.  What do you expect to do with Hunt? The earliest you could dream of getting him in your lineup is week 10. Assuming Chubb is healthy you have a flex at best for the last 6 weeks. A 9th rounder? I'd sooner draft a defense.   A discussion on the merits of handcuffing as a strategy is one thing.... This is not that. 

 

Back to Chubb....  I challenge anyone to tell me why he is so different from Ezekiel Elliott.  When you look at projected volume, ability as a runner, untapped potential in the receiving game, touchdown upside...  Imagine if Zeke had Hunt behind him but suspended for 8 weeks.  Would he be going in the late 2nd round, as Chubb is now? The answer is an emphatic no. 

 

Nick Chubb continues to be undervalued, and Hunt overvalued, and many will look back in December and wonder why they couldn't see it. 

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Did we really spend time comparing Damien Williams to Kareem Hunt? Williams did well and I expect he will continue to do so in 2019, but come on, people. That is a fool's errand.

 

So is drafting Hunt in the 9th round.  What do you expect to do with Hunt? The earliest you could dream of getting him in your lineup is week 10. Assuming Chubb is healthy you have a flex at best for the last 6 weeks. A 9th rounder? I'd sooner draft a defense.   A discussion on the merits of handcuffing as a strategy is one thing.... This is not that. 

 

Back to Chubb....  I challenge anyone to tell me why he is so different from Ezekiel Elliott.  When you look at projected volume, ability as a runner, untapped potential in the receiving game, touchdown upside...  Imagine if Zeke had Hunt behind him but suspended for 8 weeks.  Would he be going in the late 2nd round, as Chubb is now? The answer is an emphatic no. 

 

Nick Chubb continues to be undervalued, and Hunt overvalued, and many will look back in December and wonder why they couldn't see it. 

 

Gut tells me you’re right...

 

BUT

 

We aren’t talking about a guy coming off injury.   So often lately- Running backs don’t shake out at all how we imagined pre season.   They could be chomping at the bit to get Hunt back fresh and fired up.   Would be an epic addition to any roster down the stretch.   I’ll take this small chance of glory over a defense most days. 

 

Edited by Impreza178

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

Did we really spend time comparing Damien Williams to Kareem Hunt? Williams did well and I expect he will continue to do so in 2019, but come on, people. That is a fool's errand.


So is drafting Hunt in the 9th round.  What do you expect to do with Hunt?

Pray for a Chubb injury.

 

Quote

 

Back to Chubb....  I challenge anyone to tell me why he is so different from Ezekiel Elliott.  When you look at projected volume, ability as a runner, untapped potential in the receiving game, touchdown upside...  Imagine if Zeke had Hunt behind him but suspended for 8 weeks.  Would he be going in the late 2nd round, as Chubb is now? The answer is an emphatic no. 

 

Good points. Really I think it's mostly he hasn't proven it over a whole year. If he does, yeah, next year he's in high RB1 draft mode.

 

Quote

Nick Chubb continues to be undervalued, and Hunt overvalued, and many will look back in December and wonder why they couldn't see it. 

That is one possibility. Another (besides a Chubb injury) is the Browns realize there's no way they can't make use of a talent like Hunt and a 1a/1b thing develops, saving wear and tear on Chubb. I'm not saying that will happen, but it's not like it's a crazy idea.

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3 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Did we really spend time comparing Damien Williams to Kareem Hunt? Williams did well and I expect he will continue to do so in 2019, but come on, people. That is a fool's errand.

 

So is drafting Hunt in the 9th round.  What do you expect to do with Hunt? The earliest you could dream of getting him in your lineup is week 10. Assuming Chubb is healthy you have a flex at best for the last 6 weeks. A 9th rounder? I'd sooner draft a defense.   A discussion on the merits of handcuffing as a strategy is one thing.... This is not that. 

 

Back to Chubb....  I challenge anyone to tell me why he is so different from Ezekiel Elliott.  When you look at projected volume, ability as a runner, untapped potential in the receiving game, touchdown upside...  Imagine if Zeke had Hunt behind him but suspended for 8 weeks.  Would he be going in the late 2nd round, as Chubb is now? The answer is an emphatic no. 

 

Nick Chubb continues to be undervalued, and Hunt overvalued, and many will look back in December and wonder why they couldn't see it. 

 

Zeke is bigger and faster than Chubb, which makes him slightly better at being an NFL RB. It is a good comp, but I think it is as simple as that.

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22 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Zeke is bigger and faster than Chubb, which makes him slightly better at being an NFL RB. It is a good comp, but I think it is as simple as that.

The Browns will likely have a much better offense

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Zeke is bigger and faster than Chubb, which makes him slightly better at being an NFL RB. It is a good comp, but I think it is as simple as that.

Zeke isn’t bigger. The key point I think has been made. That Chubb is being projected as a workhorse with huge td upside but we only have 9 games to support it. Zeke has already been a workhorse who led the league in rush yards per game all 3 years he’s been in the league plus he has 34 tds in 40 games. And a 77 catch season under his belt. And Zeke is an elite pass blocker so he’s not getting lifted on 3rd down. Chubb may be as talented but he hasn’t had the chance prove it yet long term. And Duke will take some passing work. 

Edited by Bmore86
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4 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Back to Chubb....  I challenge anyone to tell me why he is so different from Ezekiel Elliott.  When you look at projected volume, ability as a runner, untapped potential in the receiving game, touchdown upside...  Imagine if Zeke had Hunt behind him but suspended for 8 weeks.  Would he be going in the late 2nd round, as Chubb is now? The answer is an emphatic no. 

 

Nick Chubb continues to be undervalued, and Hunt overvalued, and many will look back in December and wonder why they couldn't see it. 

 

Ok ill try. 

Zeke has never had a catastrophic knee injury like chubb. Which what were learning from gurely can come back to haunt him. 

Zeke is a much better reciever (atleast in the stat book) chubb had 31 receptions in his 4 years of college Zeke had 41 in just 2 years at college and his 77 last year show he is far better than average. Chubb had 20 receptions all year last year so 9 starts and some garbage time and BS plays. If the browns are ever down big I'd assume hunt and Duke will take over while Zeke never comes off the field 

Zeke has a better offensive line and the team has a run first mentality. However chubb had a better offense which means more points so possibly. 

Also on a side note.  TDs are flukey. Zeke averaged 0.9 tds a game for 2 seasons then last year he had 9 all year. Chubb looks like a td machine but he could easily just be a 6 or 7td guy. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Also on a side note.  TDs are flukey.

That's way more than a side note IMO, it bears repeating over and over. So many factors go into TDs. 

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4 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Also on a side note.  TDs are flukey.

 

1 hour ago, bomont said:

That's way more than a side note IMO, it bears repeating over and over. So many factors go into TDs. 

They're usually tied to workhorse RB's on top 5-10 offenses.  I think we all expect the Browns to be top 10 easily.

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