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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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3 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Well since you jumped in when I said he had worlds more potential as a receiver compared to Henry, being “better than Henry” and substantially so is sort of saying everything. And don’t harp on the 35 when I made it clear and you even quoted the post where I said that 35-40 is a 2019 projection and I was talking about a longer term outlook when I mention his potential being greater.

I don't know what half of that even means or why you're getting in a snit, but FYI RBs usually either can catch or they can't. They usually don't "learn to be better" as they gain experience to any large degree. And again "better receiver than Henry" is not really saying anything. I don't see him becoming a great receiving back ever, but he may prove at least not a big liability that way. 

 

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13 minutes ago, bomont said:

And again "better receiver than Henry" is not really saying anything. 

 

Yeah, this is not a selling point. I’ve seen snakes that were better receivers than Derrick Henry. 

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4 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

 Since you brought up the combine though, their agility scores are not nearly identical. In the 3 cone and short shuttle 42 and 47 percentiles for Chubb vs 19 and 24 percentiles for Henry. 

 

 

I must concede you are correct however neither are great in this category. Idk how agility scores seemed close to me.

 20 yd shuttle: henry 4.35-- chubb 4.25 

3 cone:  Henry 7.2 chubb 7.09

4 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

  4 real routes is 4 more real routes than I expect Henry ran. I project, and their numbers back up, Chubb to have 40-50 more points through the air than Henry this year. That’s a substantial difference. Again that’s for redraft. I think Chubb can get 3 down work and even more down the road. 

 

I agree with you here man. I've never said chubb isnt going to get 3 down work or score more points in the passing game than henry. I simply said he can be game scripted out if the browns were ever down big and in full blown catch up mode. At the end of the day I think their close to the same back but one will catch a couple more balls but have to fight off Kareem hunt for half a season. 

4 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Game script was more of an issue for Henry last year- in the 4 games the Titans lost by double digits Henry averaged 11 touches. In the 3 such games for the Browns Chubb averaged 18.3. Another substantial difference.

 

 

I feel like using the whole season for Henry isnt fair they clearly used him differently the last 4 games of the year and the titans have made many many comments on wanting to be just like that. And in the one game they lost big to the colts henry still had 17 touches. 

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36 minutes ago, bomont said:

I don't know what half of that even means or why you're getting in a snit, but FYI RBs usually either can catch or they can't. They usually don't "learn to be better" as they gain experience to any large degree. And again "better receiver than Henry" is not really saying anything. I don't see him becoming a great receiving back ever, but he may prove at least not a big liability that way. 

 

Not in a snit fella. I’m sorry you weren’t able to follow. I’ll summarize again:

I said Nick Chubb has worlds more receiving potential than Derrick Henry. You disagreed saying something along the lines of “I don’t know about worlds better”. Then you say something about Henry not being a very high bar to clear as a receiver. Which is true. But since I was only comparing Chubb’s receiving potential to Henry’s it was the only bar I was trying to clear. And I think Chubb will clear it handily. More clear to understand?

As for your helpful little FYI about RBs improving as receivers I disagree. Plenty of RBs have improved as receivers over time. And even more relevant to fantasy plenty of backs have received heavier utilization as receivers in the pros than in college. Or they’ve simply gotten more utilization in the passing game in the pros whether or not their actual skillset improved and thus better fantasy numbers. Chubb doesn’t have to make the enormous leap to Kamara/CMC/Bell level of receiving skill to improve his fantasy numbers. If he’s good enough with the ball in his hands he’ll get touches in the passing game.

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17 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I must concede you are correct however neither are great in this category. Idk how agility scores seemed close to me.

 20 yd shuttle: henry 4.35-- chubb 4.25 

3 cone:  Henry 7.2 chubb 7.09

 

I agree with you here man. I've never said chubb isnt going to get 3 down work or score more points in the passing game than henry. I simply said he can be game scripted out if the browns were ever down big and in full blown catch up mode. At the end of the day I think their close to the same back but one will catch a couple more balls but have to fight off Kareem hunt for half a season. 

 

I feel like using the whole season for Henry isnt fair they clearly used him differently the last 4 games of the year and the titans have made many many comments on wanting to be just like that. And in the one game they lost big to the colts henry still had 17 touches. 

That’s fair about Henry’s utilization. And I did consider both sample sizes to be small and they were both further muddied by qb and rb changes. The Titans in particular were tough to evaluate as their qb play was wildly erratic due to Gabbert being Gabbert and Mariota being banged up off and on all year. I disagree about the disparity being that small in their passing game usage and think that is a fair reason for the gap in their ADP. 

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40 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

 

I agree with you here man. I've never said chubb isnt going to get 3 down work or score more points in the passing game than henry. I simply said he can be game scripted out if the browns were ever down big and in full blown catch up mode. At the end of the day I think their close to the same back but one will catch a couple more balls but have to fight off Kareem hunt for half a season. 

 

That is an argument that can be applied to nearly every RB though. The running game gets scripted out when teams are down big. Chubb was still receiving work last season when the Browns were trailing.

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2 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Not in a snit fella. I’m sorry you weren’t able to follow. I’ll summarize again:

I said Nick Chubb has worlds more receiving potential than Derrick Henry. You disagreed saying something along the lines of “I don’t know about worlds better”. Then you say something about Henry not being a very high bar to clear as a receiver. Which is true. But since I was only comparing Chubb’s receiving potential to Henry’s it was the only bar I was trying to clear. And I think Chubb will clear it handily. More clear to understand?

But you didn't just say "better than Henry," you said "worlds" better, meaning a great deal better, implying a really good receiving back. Which he isn't and isn't likely to ever be IMO, as I said before. 

 

Quote

As for your helpful little FYI about RBs improving as receivers I disagree. Plenty of RBs have improved as receivers over time.

But I didn't just say "improving," I said to improving to any large degree. If you think there are plenty that fit that qualifier (maybe there are, but I can think of very few offhand), can you provide some names?

 

Quote

Chubb doesn’t have to make the enormous leap to Kamara/CMC/Bell level of receiving skill to improve his fantasy numbers. If he’s good enough with the ball in his hands he’ll get touches in the passing game.

Agreed, that's pretty much what I was saying earlier.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

That is an argument that can be applied to nearly every RB though. The running game gets scripted out when teams are down big. Chubb was still receiving work last season when the Browns were trailing.

 

Well if the argument could be applied to half the league you see why I would put chubb and Henry in the same category then right?

But it cannot be applied to nearly every rb. Most RBS now have true 3 down potential except for a handful. Henry, Carson, Howard, Michel, mack, fournette and chubb. Almost the rest of the NFL have backs very very capable in the passing game. There are some that are capable but we dont know how their coaches may utilize then but they certainly are better receivers than chubb like kerryon and Josh Jacob's and David Montgomery. That's roughly 7 to 10 backs who could end up game scripted out. The newrly all the rest of the starters can play every down of every game 

Once again chubb was never in a situation where the team got boat raced so we dont know if he will or wont be game scripted out but in the games they lost by double digits hes snap share was 49% or lower in the other six games it was never before 60% and often over 70%. 

 

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1 hour ago, bomont said:

But you didn't just say "better than Henry," you said "worlds" better, meaning a great deal better, implying a really good receiving back. Which he isn't and isn't likely to ever be IMO, as I said before. 

 

But I didn't just say "improving," I said to improving to any large degree. If you think there are plenty that fit that qualifier (maybe there are, but I can think of very few offhand), can you provide some names?

 

Agreed, that's pretty much what I was saying earlier.

Nah, he doesn’t have to be a really good receiving back to be worlds better than Henry whose career high is 15 receptions. If he gets to 35-40 in his second year then I’d be optimistic that he could get to 40-50 once Duke and Hunt are out of the picture. Worlds better.

Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Isaiah Crowell, James Conner, Jerick McKinnon, James White, Lamar Miller come to mind as guys who made substantial improvements. Even a guy like Bell who was a good college receiver jumped to the elite level when he got to the pros, lost weight, and improved his game.

You say you agree yet you think with improvement he can get to merely not a liability. I think there’s a wide wide gap between that and the Kamara types. A gap populated by Ingram, Crowell, Miller, types who can get you 40-50 catches. I wouldn’t call that merely not a liability.

 

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Well if the argument could be applied to half the league you see why I would put chubb and Henry in the same category then right?

But it cannot be applied to nearly every rb. Most RBS now have true 3 down potential except for a handful. Henry, Carson, Howard, Michel, mack, fournette and chubb. Almost the rest of the NFL have backs very very capable in the passing game. There are some that are capable but we dont know how their coaches may utilize then but they certainly are better receivers than chubb like kerryon and Josh Jacob's and David Montgomery. That's roughly 7 to 10 backs who could end up game scripted out. The newrly all the rest of the starters can play every down of every game 

Once again chubb was never in a situation where the team got boat raced so we dont know if he will or wont be game scripted out but in the games they lost by double digits hes snap share was 49% or lower in the other six games it was never before 60% and often over 70%. 

 

Man at the risk of beating a dead horse here I wouldn’t brand Fournette, who has 58 receptions in 21 games (including a couple he left early with injuries/ejection) or Chubb who had 21 in 9 starts a rookie, like that.

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Given the amount of injuries, things that change over a season etc, Hunt should be viewed as a non factor imo.

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45 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Man at the risk of beating a dead horse here I wouldn’t brand Fournette, who has 58 receptions in 21 games (including a couple he left early with injuries/ejection) or Chubb who had 21 in 9 starts a rookie, like that.

 

Fair enough bud. Agree to disagree? 

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2 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Fair enough bud. Agree to disagree? 

Good with that 🍻

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This thread is going to be a celebration for the first half of the season and a pitty party for the second half of the season.

 

Claiming Hunt will be a non factor is hilarious. A guy that led the league in rushing his rookie year, had nearly 5 YPC, had double digit TDs both of his seasons, and was one of the most electric backs in the entire league is a non factor? What logic leads to this conclusion? 

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19 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This thread is going to be a celebration for the first half of the season and a pitty party for the second half of the season.

 

Claiming Hunt will be a non factor is hilarious. A guy that led the league in rushing his rookie year, had nearly 5 YPC, had double digit TDs both of his seasons, and was one of the most electric backs in the entire league is a non factor? What logic leads to this conclusion? 

That Hunt couldn’t be on thinner ice and we have no idea if he’ll be able to step in and take half the carries immediately.  Or if Chubb can even hold up taking 300 plus carries all season. Hunt taking carries may keep Chubb fresher for the fantasy playoffs. It’s a risk for sure though. Would you rather take Gurley?

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9 minutes ago, Magoo said:

That Hunt couldn’t be on thinner ice and we have no idea if he’ll be able to step in and take half the carries immediately.  Or if Chubb can even hold up taking 300 plus carries all season. Hunt taking carries may keep Chubb fresher for the fantasy playoffs. It’s a risk for sure though. Would you rather take Gurley?

I knows this may shock you but teams don't care about the fantasy playoffs. Hunt isn't going to keep Chubb fresh for the fantasy playoffs. He is going to keep him fresh for the real playoffs.

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I knows this may shock you but teams don't care about the fantasy playoffs. Hunt isn't going to keep Chubb fresh for the fantasy playoffs. He is going to keep him fresh for the real playoffs.

I meant more timing wise not that they would actually care. I thought that would be painfully obvious bud.

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Am I the only one that thinks this guy is being seriously underdrafted? What did he do last year to deserve being drafted so low this year? I think he's up there with James Conner tier, and should be ahead of Mixon. Mixon's offense has way more question marks than Chubb's.

Chubb had elite YPC last year and that was without Beckham and with Baker as a rookie. Getting Conner / Chubb in the back quarter of the 1st / 2nd round is incredible IMO.

My theory on the Browns signing Hunt is that the browns GM used to be with the Chiefs, and he has a history. Additionally, when Hunt was signed, the Steelers seemed to have questions at running back, the Ravens had questions at running back, and the Bengals could've signed Hunt as well. It's a bottom barrel salary signing that was shrewd because it kept Hunt out of the division as competition. Duke was way more than adequate as a back-up.

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28 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Am I the only one that thinks this guy is being seriously underdrafted? What did he do last year to deserve being drafted so low this year? I think he's up there with James Conner tier, and should be ahead of Mixon. Mixon's offense has way more question marks than Chubb's.

Chubb had elite YPC last year and that was without Beckham and with Baker as a rookie. Getting Conner / Chubb in the back quarter of the 1st / 2nd round is incredible IMO.

My theory on the Browns signing Hunt is that the browns GM used to be with the Chiefs, and he has a history. Additionally, when Hunt was signed, the Steelers seemed to have questions at running back, the Ravens had questions at running back, and the Bengals could've signed Hunt as well. It's a bottom barrel salary signing that was shrewd because it kept Hunt out of the division as competition. Duke was way more than adequate as a back-up.

Personally I’m not particularly concerned about Hunt. A lot happens by Week 10 in an NFL season so I’m not going to worry too much about it at this point. Hunt could even be traded by then.

But I expect very little involvement in the passing game, so that puts him below Mixon and Conner for me. 

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47 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Am I the only one that thinks this guy is being seriously underdrafted? What did he do last year to deserve being drafted so low this year?

I wouldn't call it "so low" but not higher because Hunt, obviously.

 

17 minutes ago, gufomel said:

Personally I’m not particularly concerned about Hunt. A lot happens by Week 10 in an NFL season so I’m not going to worry too much about it at this point. Hunt could even be traded by then.

Or he could be stealing the heck out of touches from Chubb. You can not worry about it now, but you may worry plenty in November. I don't know if that will happen but it's a clear possibility. 

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On 7/28/2019 at 11:08 PM, Gohawks said:

This thread is going to be a celebration for the first half of the season and a pitty party for the second half of the season.

 

Claiming Hunt will be a non factor is hilarious. A guy that led the league in rushing his rookie year, had nearly 5 YPC, had double digit TDs both of his seasons, and was one of the most electric backs in the entire league is a non factor? What logic leads to this conclusion? 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/07/28/dee-haslam-kareem-hunt-has-work-to-do-to-be-part-of-our-organization/amp/

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah mate that there is called PR and damage control. Nothing more nothing less.

If you say so.

 

I’ve also never seen any RB fail in Andy Reid’s system so seeing him do it somewhere else would prove something.  Although, if Chubb is successful there’s no reason for them to take him off the field.

Edited by RMJ_12

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16 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Am I the only one that thinks this guy is being seriously underdrafted? What did he do last year to deserve being drafted so low this year? 

Quite simply put, he won’t be the best RB on his team for the second half of the season so he is too risky for most owners at his current ADP.

If you want to win regular season games, Chubb will be great. But if you want to avoid having to consider benching your second round pick in the playoffs, stay away. 

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11 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

11 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah mate that there is called PR and damage control. Nothing more nothing less.

 

11 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

If you say so.

 

I’ve also never seen any RB fail in Andy Reid’s system so seeing him do it somewhere else would prove something.  Although, if Chubb is successful there’s no reason for them to take him off the field.

 

look, until Hunt actually gets on the field and produces then Chubbo is bird in hand, operating in one of the most potentially lethal offenses in the game. 

Hunt showed immense chops in KC, but it's not exactly a fait accompli slam dunk that 2019 is gonna resemble that production .... it's Chubb's gig 'til it's wrested, and i just don't fret Hunt as much as some - not based on talent, just based on peripherals.

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